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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Hot Seat... Week 1 .... VANZACK
CrusCrnshw send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#401
Posted: 3/3/2011 11:18:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:


He has a better chance of hitting the middle of the following bet:
St Louis Cards win total UNDER 85.5
St Louis Cards win total OVER 85



By agreeing with this statement you should know the answer
quote
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#402
Posted: 3/3/2011 11:19:23 AM
Thank you for this!
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#403
Posted: 3/3/2011 9:41:03 PM
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#404
Posted: 3/3/2011 10:01:02 PM
Vanzack - favorite bands?

When you smoke weed how do you do it?
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#405
Posted: 3/3/2011 10:54:55 PM

Had a very busy day - will pick it up in the AM tomorrow.

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#406
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:03:32 AM

Originally Posted by BigBaby11

 Has the gambling at this point in your life become a joy or a burden?

A total burden that allows me to have joy outside of gambling.  But a total burden, very very little enjoyment in gambling for me at all (except for covers).

 I'm asking about the raw gambling, not so much the stress of moving money and the risk involved. When you have a team holding on for dear life in the final minutes of a game you have a large wager on what goes through your mind? What are your emotions at this point in your life?

As probably similar to all gamblers, the bad is always worse than the good is better.  I am somewhat numb to "mooses" at this point, of course some get me more than others (the SD / Pitt game from last year, with the botched call on the last play of the game - 40K swing for me) - but overall you win as many of those as you lose - and my philosophy is that if you are in a close game within one score, you didnt do your job anyway.  Your job is to get on games that are not going to be within one score, I dont want to be coinflips.  But more to your question, I can have 50K sitting out there and go out to dinner with family and not even think about it, and I can also go out with friends who dont know I gamble and suffer a moose like the one above and they are screaming and yelling over their fantasy teams, and I just sip my drink.


At the end of the day are you satisfied with the life you have chosen for yourself? Was all the stress, hard work, ups and downs, sacrifices etc worth it?
 
Overall, it has been a great 10 years.  But life changes, and I firmly believe you have to embrace change.  I am currently debating whether it might be time to do something else altogether, or at least put this on the back burner for now.  I have confidence that I could be successful in business or something else - the only thing I know I dont want to do is go back to being a 9-5 corporate guy.  I do have a good amount of savings socked away which allows me to be picky with what I do, luckily.

Have any personal relationships in your life suffered from gambling?
 
No.  In fact, I attribute my close family to my gambling.  It has allowed me to spend more time with them, quality time, than any other career I could have pursued. 
 
How do you not let the ups and downs and pressure of doing this for a living affect your personal life?
Somehow, the two just never mix.  I can lose a terrible moose and 2 minutes later go have a catch with my son, or have lots of money on games and watch a family show and just ignore it.  That might be the key to success right there.
 
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#407
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:05:01 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by RickeM:

If you could be Bill Gates or Warren Buffett, which one would you chose and why?

Bill gates built something.  Buffett basically bet and won.  Given those two, I prefer Gates.

I often think about my life and one problem I have is that I do nothing in my career to help anyone, build anything, or leave a footbprint.

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#408
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:08:56 AM
Originally Posted by wrigleyswagers

1. so van i take it you arnt a 6 point 2 teaser guy in the nfl?  i dont believe in teasers but when done right i think you can make a lot in the right plays)

Teasers are not on my radar.  I choose to concentrate like a laser on what I know I can do, and teasers are outside of that area of core expertise.  Not saying others cant, just saying I cant.

2. why do you think that i get capped off at a lot of books, its really frustrating.

I have been capped many places.  But to be honest, I dont even bother with books that will cap anymore.  If I know a book limits, what am I going to do?  Take them for 5k and wait to be banned?  I am extremely selective where I will wager, and those books usually wont limit.

3. what is the worst book you have used? ( i say 5 dimes for me they gave me the boot after one week)

Tough to say.  5 dimes also cut me down to almost zero, but I would say the defunct BetPanam was my worst experience.  They went under with about 2k of my money, which is my only real dollar loss in a book that went under.

4. what is your sport that you own, the one that you say come here girl?

Recently, soccer.

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#409
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:09:37 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by tagsrock:

Why do you think Beets chose you over the Giant to be on the hot seat first.

Dont know.

Is this a trick question?  Do most people think that Giant and I are the same?

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#410
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:10:35 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by trotter64:




Without the "we" there would be no sports... no?


The "we" is the greatest trick ever played on the american sports public.  But you are correct.

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#411
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:11:43 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Consilience:

vanzack, thank you for your sincerity in answering a multitude of questions from this, our den of degenerates here at covers, and thank you superbeets for the great idea to create this thread. Van, I've always appreciated your cerebral approach to the business of betting and I agree with most all of which you profess. Because of your meticulous habits with betting, I suspect you're very similar in the other 'details' of your life, so my question deals not with betting but something else... 

Given your seeming thoughtfulness, self-love(that's a good thing), and love for the world around you, are you aware of Stratospheric Aerosol Engineering(SAG)? It is a serious issue that affects every living being on earth and I think it's right up your alley. Its deployment has been linked to a decline in the production of organics and a myriad of human health issues.

Much like your discovery of the atrocities sustained by the dolphins in Taiji moved you to action, I hope the same action can be put forth upon your discovery of the issue of "chemtrails" or "persistent contrails." Here is a link to a documentary on the subject: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jf0khstYDLA 

The producers of the film ask simple questions and receive answers from some qualified and credible scientists... Sounds like you may have a little extra time on your hands these days, will you watch it?

I will watch this, and I will comment on it later.

I want to tell you though - I am extremely critical - and dont buy in to conspiracy theories easily - but I will watch it.

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#412
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:13:16 AM
i do this for somewhat of a living but not nearly on the scale as u do. my situation is different in where i made my getaway from 9 to 5 in real estate. i have a question.................i donate but to individuals and not charities, do you donate? and if so what is your charity of choice?
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#413
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:16:19 AM
Originally Posted by TRAIN69

Do your friends ask you for gambling advice or who youre on?

Most of my friends dont know I gamble.  They joke that I am a secret agent working for the govt or something.  They have no idea.  The ones that do bug me to no end, I seem to attract and collect charity cases - the types who even with a bag full of winners would still find a way to lose money - so what I really do to be profitable has little or no impact on them.  They want the winner of the day, and then a dozen more winners of that same day - I am not that guy.

What does your wife do for a living?

She is a wife and mother.

I know you said you dont bet on college bball, just curious if you speculated during March Madness?

The last MM I bet was 2006.  In typical covers bloodbath style, had a thread with like a million views and went down in public flames, maybe going like 5-25 or something.  After several consecutive years of losing, I threw in the towel.

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#414
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:20:54 AM

Originally Posted by kaponofor3 Van:

1. What do you think "really happened" on 9/11
?

I really think what happened is very close to what is the popular story of what happened.  I have yet to see a conspiracy theory that holds up scientifically and is believable.  Sounds like fix cries here at covers after a strange game - are there strange things that happened?  Yes, but as we see in sports strange things happen all the time as part of simple variance - we have nothing to compare an event like that to - and therefore what seems strange there might not be strange at all. 

2. Do you listen to any podcasts? If so, which one? If none, I'd recommend the Joe Rogan podcast -- he's actually very, very smart and his show has interesting theoretical/philosophical discussions.

3. Are you into MMA at all?

Joe Rogan always intrigued me.  I am not and MMA guy - I find the violence disturbing - just a personal preference - but I really do have a hard time watching a guy submit because of pain.  Maybe Im a box.  I will try to check out the podcasts you suggest.

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#415
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:35:01 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

4. What do you see as the biggest threat to mankind in the next 15-20 years?

I could write a novel on this.  It is very hard to choose from the list, because any one of these could end mankind.  1000 years ago, the power of the individual was such that if he wanted to, and was pissed off enough - he couldnt really do anything of mass destruction.  Get a knife, kill some people, but thats really it - no global impact.  Now a person who is pissed off and wants to damage can do real damage - and with exponential technology growth - it only gets worse.

My opinion is that it is inevitable - when not if - a major catastrophe will happen that will either reset mankind or end it, and we proably arent that far away.  Here are some possibilities:

1.  Unsustainable population growth.
2.  New disease.
3.  Economic instability and lack of resources leads to major event.
4.  Nuclear (or new type) of weapon proliferation and ease of use and acquisition.
5.  Environmental issues lead to #3.
6.  Religious zealots lead to #4.
7.  Unknown and untested use of chemicals, radioactivity, and technology that are currently being used lead to unexpected consequences.

That is just off of the top of my head.

I am very interested in a concept called "singularity" - it was just recently featured on the cover of time magazine if you want an introduction - it is the idea if WHEN, not IF - artificial intelligence passes the intelligence of a human brain.  Most think it will happen in the next 30 years or so, mostly due to the exponential growth of technology.  It could have dire impacts - and not in the terminator movie type of way - just dire economic impacts which lead to other things - or it might be great for humans.

I find the concept of "technology generations" interesting too.  Basically, if you lived in the year 1500, not much happened between your birth and death.  You could have one profession, and really between 1500 and 1600 not very much happens that affects your life.  Even more stable between 500 and 600.  Today, and tomorrow, technology generations are getting smaller and smaller - our whole concept of training a person to learn a profession at the age of 20 for their whole career is history.  By the time they are 25, or at worst 30, that profession has changed drastically because of quicker technology generations.  A kid born today might need to have 10 careers in his life.  I dont think the human is set up well to deal with this - from an evolutionary standpoint we are pushing the envelope - evolution is not designed to deal with quick changes - and all of these quick changes are the anit-evolution.

Humans for 100K years have craved fats and sugars because they were hard to find.  When you found them, you ate them because you might not find them again for a long time.  That is why they taste good, and we crave them.  In the last 50 years - fats and sugars are now available and are cheap - and look what is happening.  Technology has surpassed evolution - and we are seeing dire consequences.  I worry about the same concept happening in unkown and yet to be seen ways.

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#416
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:37:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by squinta1:

Van,

In the event that you take your hiatus, what do you see as other possible avenues for investing? Are you already invested in other ventures? If so, what, and is gambling by far your most profitable?

Thanks

I am part owner in a couple of restaurants, and have some real estate stuff that has tanked.  I am generally extremely conservative with investing - I dont trust the stock market and dont have a dollar in it.  I am happy to make 2% in very safe investments.

I dont know what I will do, but I do think I will find something to go at with the same methods I have in gambling, and it will work.

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#417
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:54:18 AM

Originally Posted by andarmac99

 1. When you first started gambling was it your intention to "hit winners" (say hit 55% for the year to hit your goals) or did you come into it with the mindset of "squeezing pennies" and grinding it out? If you started with the first strategy when did you switch to the second?

I had 20 years of losing gambling before I even thought about winning.  Luckily, nothing too terrible (although emotionally I was a wreck, I just mean I didnt go bankrupt or anyting - probably one step above it).   I came to my current strategy through years of experience - and most importantly - constant self introspection with willingness to change and adapt.  That is the only way.  Because what I am doing today might not work in 6 months, and I better be ready to evaluate it and understand that I am doing something wrong.  Just like my current decision to take a hiatus - Im sure there are lots here laughing and snickering - but it is all part of my philosophy that if something is not quite right - nothing is off the table to get it right.  Ignoring it is the only wrong answer.


2. In your first few years in the profession what were your betting amounts relative to today? Say if you made an average sized wager on the Steelers +3 and kept it without selling etc, what $ figure would you have on that wager?

My unit size when I first started was 3k for NFL, my biggest season of unit size (2005) for NFL was 15K.


3. Just how important is reducing the juice? I have read many of your threads and I am certain I know the answer to that question but in terms of importance would it be #1 Reducing the juice and a large gap between that and the next most important thing?

It is the first advice I give anyone starting out, because it is the easiest (or was, before all of these book closings) to do and gives you the most bang for your buck.  But you have to be honest with yourself first and answer if you are doing this for fun, or to make money.  If you are commited to making money, reduce juice first.  If you told me you wanted to "make more money" on your weekly shopping trips to buy toilet paper, I would tell you to compare prices and use coupons, buy in bulk when it is cheap - same with gambling.  It is the easiest way for a beginner to cut his EV threshold down, because handiapping expertise comes at an expensive price - to get a tiny bit better at handicapping takes a LOT of investment.

4. If you could go back in time and meet the young vanzack just as he was embarking on his betting career what are 3 things you would say to him?

1.  Dont trust others so easily, trust yourself more.
2.  Everyone in life cuts their own deal.  If you dont like your deal, change it.
3.  Start a website called covers.com!


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#418
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:57:01 AM
Originally Posted by Kurshka

Not sure if this was asked.

Do you watch all the games you play.

Only for the purposes of handicapping for the future, not for entertainment.  So for me, watching a taped game is sometimes better than live.

Since you are a disciplined player do you still feel that gamblers buzz on every game or is it strickly business.

Sometimes, but I would say 1 out of 100 games I watch I have a buzz.

I assume you get the buzz on the large plays or maybe not.

I went to the Rose Bowl this year.  I had 100K on TCU.  That combined, gave me a buzz until the 4th quarter, then I got sick.

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#419
Posted: 3/4/2011 11:58:41 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Allbutbroke:

How do you balance the demands of handicapping, watching games - presumably most in the evenings and weekends, and ensuring family doesn't feel second fiddle to a life of gambling?

This is actually quite easy.

I make a conscious decision that my family is first.

Sounds simple, but it is surprisingly easy when you actually say those words and practice them.  I dont care who you are,or what profession you are in - once you profess that the money and anything else you get from your career are secondary to your family relationships - life becomes a lot easier.

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#420
Posted: 3/4/2011 12:04:49 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Spitfire15:

Thanks for the responses Van!!!  I agree with you about the birds and their perception of time, I just think its a cool thing to think about... because really, how do we know that time is the same for everything?

And of course you don't eat much sugar, you're not consumed by the culture around you.  I'm sure you eat less than me, but I've cut back to almost nothing that is overly sugary --- and then I throw it all down the drain because I drink red bull, and I'm afraid of the sugar free.  My question was more about if you knew that a pack of sugar is 2g to 4g... because I find this amazing!!!!  Think about all that sugary garbage that has like 60g of sugar in a generous portion... that could be 30 friggin packets of sugar.  That's absurd.  How could you possibly need that much sugar for say, a can of ginger ale.  You don't have to answer this.  Let me think of a new question....


Got one.  Okay, got a few... so you don't work at all?  Do you do the typical 'man jobs' around the house like cutting the grass or do you pay some kid to do it?  Or do you pay a real lawn service to do it?!  Do you have a lawn??

Does your wife have a job?

Scratch that, lets not get into your wife.

How do you keep yourself busy during the day?  What time do you wake up?  How much do you weigh?  Are you what would be perceived as 'lazy' or what would be perceived as a 'hard worker'... or are you a 'smart worker' that stays somewhere in the middle?  I recently graduated from college and I gotta say, if I spend 6 more friggin months without having a job to occupy most of my time I would have lost my mind.  It was nice sleeping in all the time, my 'job' being to go sit in a classroom for about an hour and a half a day, and just getting high and trying to have some fun in between... but after a while its just miserable, your free time quickly turns into time spent wishing you had something better to do, while when you work yourself to death you appreciate the time off even if your not doing something great with your time.  Would you agree?

Do you have a new dog since Van and Zack?  I had a dog named Zack.... good dog.  I think you and I should seriously get together if you are ever in PIttsburgh, I think it would be pretty interesting for both of us... you hang out with a young 'kid' who talks a little too much but has a decent head on his shoulders... I hang out with an older guy who is intelligent but doesn't know how to relax completely and try to get him to smoke some fine fine weed.  Come on!

 

Where do I start with this one?

I do everything around my house, including cutting the law, although I have like a mac daddy mower that makes it so easy I feel like I am cheating.

Keeping busy is sometimes a challenge.  I wake up when I wake up.  I currently weigh about 170.  I am a very determined smart worker. 

Here is a general statement for you:  There will always be someone better off than you, and someone worse off than you.  The key to life is always comparing yourself to the guy who is worse off than you.

I have dogs all the time, they are a part of my life and always will be, dogs rule.

I like your offer of pittsburgh.  I will take it under consideration.  You sound like a cool person.

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#421
Posted: 3/4/2011 12:06:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Rocafella:

Do you agree with the saying that a man with two first names can't be trusted?

(i.e. Chris Paul)

I totally trust Marky Mark, so no.

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#422
Posted: 3/4/2011 12:09:26 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:

I have a futures bet on STL Cards UNDER 86.5 wins -120. My book is now offering it at 83.5 now (with wainwright gone) Over -105.

Ive thought about middling here...if my -120 was a better price..I probably would have pulled the trigger..

your thoughts for an 84 85 86 middle?

I always like selling at the price I bought, but if that is not an option....

You are laying -120 on one side, and -105 on the other.  That is a big spread to make up by the probability of them landing exactly on 84, 85, or 86.  You are essentially getting roughly 28-1 that it will land on one of those outcomes.

If I gave you a prop that offered:  STL to end with 84, 85, or 86 wins at 28-1 would you take it?

Therein lies your answer.....

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#423
Posted: 3/4/2011 12:10:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Allbutbroke:

Who is the dude with the nanchuka sticks in your former avatar?

I am pretty sure I googled "geek" or something like that about 3 years ago, and got that guy.  I have no idea who he really is, but more than half of covers would lay 10-1 that it is actually me.

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#424
Posted: 3/4/2011 12:12:18 PM

Originally Posted by Spitfire15] Vanzack - favorite bands?

Tool, Alice in Chains, Metallica, Beatles

When you smoke weed how do you do it?

Pipe I bought in Cozumel Mexico for 6 dollars.  Shape of a lizard.  I call it my lizard pipe.


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#425
Posted: 3/4/2011 12:14:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kalind:

i do this for somewhat of a living but not nearly on the scale as u do. my situation is different in where i made my getaway from 9 to 5 in real estate. i have a question.................i donate but to individuals and not charities, do you donate? and if so what is your charity of choice?

Donating money is easy.  Donating time is true charity.

I try to practice that.  I am involved in several local charities, on the board of 2.  It is probably the one thing that fills the void I describe above about putting meaning in my life, as gambling does nothing for anyone.

Keep active!

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