| Author: |
[Politics] Topic: Why Romney wins in three words: Turnout, Enthusiasm, Confidence |
|
FrontRowCenter |
 View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Captain
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 6445
Location: Florida |
#1 Posted: 11/4/2012 9:09:52 AM And the biggest reason out of those three is Enthusiasm !!! People are so upset about the failed leadership of Obama they are coming out to Vote Obama out of office. People are Pissed!!!
Obama--no surprise--is winning news cycles, but Romney is winning the election.
And he is doing so because a majority of the American people have simply had enough nastiness, enough radicalism, enough of this president.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/04/Why-Romney-Will-Win?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter |
|
quote |
|
FrontRowCenter |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Captain
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 6445
Location: Florida |
#2 Posted: 11/4/2012 9:12:11 AM http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/03/Level-Excitement-For-Republican-Ticket-In-Colorado-Not-Seen-In-Decade
Consistent with a recent Pew Research survey that found a majority of voters voting for Romney are now affirmatively voting for him instead of merely against President Barack Obama, Republicans in Colorado have said they have not seen the level of enthusiasm for Republicans that they are seeing for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan in a decade.
According to the Denver Post:
Most Republicans contend that the last time the GOP top of the ticket in Colorado was this strong was in 2002, when Gov. Bill Owens and U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard ran for re-election.
The Romney campaign released a web video Saturday highlighting the enthusiasm of Colorado's voters for the Romney-Ryan ticket, reflected by the overflow crowd at the two men's appearance with Kid Rock at Red Rocks Amphitheater: |
|
quote |
|
FrontRowCenter |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Captain
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 6445
Location: Florida |
#3 Posted: 11/4/2012 9:12:51 AM Most Republicans contend that the last time the GOP top of the ticket in Colorado was this strong was in 2002, when Gov. Bill Owens and U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard ran for re-election.
The Romney campaign released a web video Saturday highlighting the enthusiasm of Colorado's voters for the Romney-Ryan ticket, reflected by the overflow crowd at the two men's appearance with Kid Rock at Red Rocks Amphitheater: |
|
quote |
|
don juan |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 3576
Location: Florida |
#4 Posted: 11/4/2012 9:17:06 AM My friend... you are in for one heck of a big surprise on Wednesday morning. |
|
quote |
|
promark12 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1569
Location: California |
#5 Posted: 11/4/2012 11:55:03 AM Enthusiasm? Romney is no Ronald Reagan, he even stated that when he was running for Governor of Massachusettes.
There's NOT much enthusiasm at all about this election. I think the crowd came out to see Kid Rock, not Old Rock. |
|
quote |
|
|
|
KBrick84 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 23875
Location: United States |
#6 Posted: 11/4/2012 12:02:10 PM
Flip Flopping Fraud
|
|
quote |
|
Ktrain |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 5248
Location: California |
#7 Posted: 11/4/2012 12:50:46 PM
It might do you some good to read something else once in a while. |
|
Posted using a mobile device.quote |
|
OneEye |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 1632
Location: Florida |
#8 Posted: 11/4/2012 1:17:54 PM
But I think you have to acknowledge that those with a microphone far outnumber outlets like Breitbart, Fox News, etc. They have done their best to say this is over. Hence I think you have skewed lines. The sample sizes of Democrats have been skewed. Everyone is looking at Ohio even though either side can get there without it. Romney campaign did a major fuckup on the Jeep commercial in Ohio. That ad might come back to bite him in the behind. We'll see. One thing is for sure if Romney does not take NC and VA it is probably over. So I think we get that news fairly early.
My money is on Romney. I think when you can get a dog at this value that has a legit shot at winning you have to take it.
|
|
quote |
|
FrontRowCenter |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Captain
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 6445
Location: Florida |
#9 Posted: 11/4/2012 2:34:40 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by OneEye:
The enthusiasm issue was addressed on all the Sunday talk shows. Meet the Press, Face the Nation, etc. Romney having 30,000 show up last night in the cold, Obama getting 4,000. So that's not a bias, that's a fact. The outcome will be close. The betting lines showing that 280-290 EV over/under back this up. However the ML bet is weighting this in Obama's favor. Okay so that is saying things honestly.
But I think you have to acknowledge that those with a microphone far outnumber outlets like Breitbart, Fox News, etc. They have done their best to say this is over. Hence I think you have skewed lines. The sample sizes of Democrats have been skewed. Everyone is looking at Ohio even though either side can get there without it. Romney campaign did a major fuckup on the Jeep commercial in Ohio. That ad might come back to bite him in the behind. We'll see. One thing is for sure if Romney does not take NC and VA it is probably over. So I think we get that news fairly early.
My money is on Romney. I think when you can get a dog at this value that has a legit shot at winning you have to take it.
Well said OneEye. All we have is Fox News, twitter, facebook, and a few outlets like Breitbart. Everything else is skewed LEFTY. Romney wins!!!! 
Nobody would even know of Benghazigate if it wasn't for FOX NEWS.  |
|
quote |
|
depeche2 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 66822
Location: Illinois |
#10 Posted: 11/4/2012 2:56:15 PM
|
|
quote |
|
FrontRowCenter |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Captain
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 6445
Location: Florida |
#11 Posted: 11/4/2012 4:46:34 PM Romney will break 300 Electoral votes in a landslide.
Can't wait. |
|
quote |
|
promark12 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1569
Location: California |
#12 Posted: 11/4/2012 5:38:23 PM |
|
quote |
|
FrontRowCenter |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Captain
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 6445
Location: Florida |
#13 Posted: 11/4/2012 5:40:22 PM |
|
quote |
|
KBrick84 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Hall of Fame
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 23875
Location: United States |
#14 Posted: 11/4/2012 5:42:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by FrontRowCenter:
The mainstream media is skewed. Why people actually support Obama is mind-boggling..............
One could say the same about your claims of Romney winning...or getting 300 electoral votes...as neither are going to happen.
|
|
quote |
|
OneEye |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 1632
Location: Florida |
#15 Posted: 11/4/2012 6:02:12 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by promark12:
Were the polls skewered in 2008? 2004?
To your point about the past, those election years did not have the huge swing for one party like the 2008 election. None of the polls are perfect but the complaint this year is that 2008 data is being used for the 2012 polls. Honest people know that if you do that you are going to overstate the Democratic percentage of voting and thereby overstate the Obama polling results. Nothing more complicated than that. Even Democratic strategists are not expecting the Obama 2008 results to be repeated. They know it will be something less. The question is whether it will be 9 million votes less.
|
|
quote |
|
SkySky |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 1245
Location: California |
#16 Posted: 11/4/2012 8:09:28 PM
Offshore lines have never been wrong.
OBAMA - 310
good night now.
|
|
quote |
|
depeche2 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 66822
Location: Illinois |
#17 Posted: 11/4/2012 8:14:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by SkySky:
It's over.
Offshore lines have never been wrong.
OBAMA - 310
good night now.
Offshore lines have never been wrong about the winner of the Presidential election. Obama, Bush and Bush '00 were all favorites heading into election day.
|
|
quote |
|
OneEye |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 1632
Location: Florida |
#18 Posted: 11/4/2012 11:00:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by depeche2:
Offshore lines have never been wrong about the winner of the Presidential election. Obama, Bush and Bush '00 were all favorites heading into election day.
So why isn't the line -1000? I mean if it so certain.
|
|
quote |
|
depeche2 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 66822
Location: Illinois |
#19 Posted: 11/4/2012 11:18:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by OneEye:
So why isn't the line -1000? I mean if it so certain.
Because of bettors like you.
|
|
quote |
|
esplanade |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 7959
Location: |
#20 Posted: 11/5/2012 1:37:41 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by KBrick84:
Why Romney loses in 3 words:
Flip Flopping Fraud
Yup you just described obama to a T.
|
|
quote |
|
esplanade |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 7959
Location: |
#21 Posted: 11/5/2012 1:40:02 AM
|
|
quote |
|
ApocalypseLater |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4260
Location: |
#22 Posted: 11/5/2012 2:15:33 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by OneEye:
So why isn't the line -1000? I mean if it so certain.
it's hard to understand how someone who wagers money could ask this question... but ok...
as for the OP... i have some reading material for you... if you have never heard of FiveThirtyEight... it is a group that breaks down all of the polls, over and over... tracks them... evaluates them for possible bias... analyzes their past predictive abilities... in short, these guys are freaking masterminds of statistics, and in my opinion, the absolute most credible source there is when telling you what to make of the polls, and ultimately determining the likelihood each candidate will win the electoral college... chances of winning each state... just a shitload of statistical probabilities...
they have never wrongly predicted the election winner, and as some of these articles point out... this year's election has a much greater sampling of polls, and greater number of polls in action... they essentially conclude that their statistical breakdowns this year should prove to be the most reliable of any election to date...
these are a few recent articles from FiveThirtyEight, and how they view this... they are unbias, unaffiliated with either party... they are just trying to make correct predictions...
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/state-and-national-polls-come-into-better-alignment/#more-37179
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nov-1-the-simple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/
essentially... your confidence is unfounded... yes, i watch FoxNews, too... they have you brimming... you might want to find a less biased source of information...
|
|
quote |
|
ApocalypseLater |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4260
Location: |
#23 Posted: 11/5/2012 4:03:20 PM
|
|
quote |
|
robbypark |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 1982
Location: Saskatchewan |
#24 Posted: 11/6/2012 5:24:41 AM |
|
quote |
|
bunny651 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 2852
Location: |
#25 Posted: 11/6/2012 12:38:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by robbypark:
Obama wins because he's been a good president that's had to deal with a crappy hand. Romney loses because he's a war-mongering, racist, elitist that was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.
If I want to read this, I just have to pick up a campaign lit. from the Democrats. Are you related to SirJohn?? |
|
quote |