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Author: [Politics] Topic: The best ML wager you can make this year
SportsFan9698
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#1
Posted: 9/28/2012 6:35:41 PM
This is the single beset ML wager you can make this year

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ContestCategory/Politics/300~2A~+U~2E~S~2E~+2012+Presidential+Election/Lines.aspx


Obama is now a 5:1 on the biggest online wagering site in the world.  Everybody here respects the lines posted by the almighty pinnacle

I absolutely guarantee you that the line is dead wrong, because the polls are dead wrong, because the media is in the tank.

Here is the ultimate test to know whether the polls are on or way off...  How many people do you know or have heard of that voted for Obama in 08, and now are either skeptical or outright decided for Romney now???  Now think of how many people you know, or have heard of that voted for McCain in 08, and are now decided for Obama???

The answer is obvious of course.  Now if that is not enough, consider this... The young voters and minorities flooded the polls in record numbers in 08 swept up in the message of hope and change.  Do you get the feeling he will have the same momentum at the polls in 2012?

The polls are so wrong it's not even funny.  It's beyond not being funny, its crazy.  It's had such an effect that the wagering public believes it and is pouring onto the Obama side.

Think I'm crazy?  I'm all in on Romney at +422

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#2
Posted: 9/28/2012 6:45:25 PM

These posts are exactly why I got Obama at -460 two nights before the election in 2008. 

When people cannot separate their heart from their wallets, it is  for those that do. 
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#3
Posted: 9/28/2012 6:50:16 PM

There's only one problem with your thesis:  As much as voters are disappointed with Obama, they are not willing to hire Romney, a guy they just can't identify with.  Think a weak President Bush beating Kerry.

While Romney's odds are enticing, this is not Monopoly money being bet.  The odds are derived by the betting action.  And many of the bettors aren't really politicos.  They are hardcore bettors who study, like it's a football game.

Before you bet, wait a little longer.  By next week, Romney will be +500 or higher. 

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#4
Posted: 9/28/2012 6:54:51 PM
are there replacement vote counting machines in place?
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#5
Posted: 9/29/2012 9:20:26 AM

Easy to agree that polls can be very unreliable.  But sportbook odds tend to be more reliable especially in the final week before the election according to research by the University of B.C. 

The problem with the ultimate test is that it is limited to the people you know and might not be indicative of all voters.  American gamblers aren't allowed to bet at Pinnacle.  Polls suggest a close race but most money is on Obama by unemotional foreign gamblers.

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#6
Posted: 9/29/2012 10:22:48 AM

Well, I doubt die-hard Red Sox fans would ever bet on the Yankees.  But sometimes they should (like this year).  According to polls, states leaning towards Obama add up to 265 electoral votes.  States leaning Romney add up to 191.  It takes 271 to win the election.  Therefore,  Romney would HAVE to win every remaining swing state to get elected.  Not an easy task considering momentum is on Obama's side.

The arguement "I don't know anybody who likes Obama" is an emotional one.  The polls tell a different story.

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#7
Posted: 9/29/2012 10:42:38 AM
here's the thing about polls, and statistics in general and how most are easily hoodwinked by them. In order for these type models to work in predicting the future, you have to operate under the assumption that past performances are indicative of future results. If the future ends up looking like the past, then you will pat yourself on the back and say "my those polls are accurate!"

Humans are a fascinating species of animal. The majority of us are some monkey-see monkey-do guy, and that is all we know. We don't tend to have much if any vision. As a bettor that (for the most part) deals exclusively with underdogs, i can attest that most people will always argue for the obvious choice (obama -480 in this case), and it is virtually impossible to convince these people otherwise. Who wants to go against the grain anyways, it takes less energy to simply move with the flow.

everything has it's price, if i was the type to wager on this kind of event, i would say that Romney at these numbers is deserving of some consideration. I certainly can envision multiple scenarios in which he were to win. I don't think he does win, but i wouldn't rule it out as impossible.
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#8
Posted: 9/29/2012 11:29:01 AM
OK, and what poll company would remain a poll company if they kept getting it wrong?  Give me some examples of polls being wrong. 
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#9
Posted: 9/29/2012 12:05:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

This is the single beset ML wager you can make this year

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ContestCategory/Politics/300~2A~+U~2E~S~2E~+2012+Presidential+Election/Lines.aspx


Obama is now a 5:1 on the biggest online wagering site in the world.  Everybody here respects the lines posted by the almighty pinnacle

I absolutely guarantee you that the line is dead wrong, because the polls are dead wrong, because the media is in the tank.

Here is the ultimate test to know whether the polls are on or way off...  How many people do you know or have heard of that voted for Obama in 08, and now are either skeptical or outright decided for Romney now???  Now think of how many people you know, or have heard of that voted for McCain in 08, and are now decided for Obama???

The answer is obvious of course.  Now if that is not enough, consider this... The young voters and minorities flooded the polls in record numbers in 08 swept up in the message of hope and change.  Do you get the feeling he will have the same momentum at the polls in 2012?

The polls are so wrong it's not even funny.  It's beyond not being funny, its crazy.  It's had such an effect that the wagering public believes it and is pouring onto the Obama side.

Think I'm crazy?  I'm all in on Romney at +422



You just flushed all your money down the toilet.
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#10
Posted: 9/29/2012 12:09:32 PM
When you talk about "people you know", how many of them are brown or black?  How is Romney with the demographics so terribly against him?  You're talking to too many middle aged white guys.  Yeah Romney's got that demographic.  But that's about it.  Women, young people, old people, black, latino, the 47%.  Romney has the upper middle class middled aged white guy, but that's it.  Funny though, that last category is me, but he isn't getting my vote or most people I know.
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#11
Posted: 9/29/2012 12:31:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by depeche2:

When you talk about "people you know", how many of them are brown or black?  How is Romney with the demographics so terribly against him?  You're talking to too many middle aged white guys.  Yeah Romney's got that demographic.  But that's about it.  Women, young people, old people, black, latino, the 47%.  Romney has the upper middle class middled aged white guy, but that's it.  Funny though, that last category is me, but he isn't getting my vote or most people I know.
Obviously Obama is going to win the black, Latino, female vote but do you think they will come out in the record numbers they did 4 yrs ago.   Doubtful.   Do you think the young 20 yr olds will come out in force when the are still looking for a job?   Doubtful again.   Not sure if that is enough for Romney but I agree it will be closer than the odds indicate.
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#12
Posted: 9/29/2012 12:55:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NJLIBettor:

Obviously Obama is going to win the black, Latino, female vote but do you think they will come out in the record numbers they did 4 yrs ago.   Doubtful.   Do you think the young 20 yr olds will come out in force when the are still looking for a job?   Doubtful again.   Not sure if that is enough for Romney but I agree it will be closer than the odds indicate.


It will be "closer" then 4 years ago.  That was a wipeout.  Obama had what, like 365 EV.  Obama won't be Indiana or probably NC again.  But that's only like 20 EV.  Where is Romney going to get another 75 EV?  Start with that map and look at how much ground he has to make up.  Look at it on a state by state basis.  Romney's path is so narrow it's ridiculous. 
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#13
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:00:22 PM
The OP is confusing the dislike of Obama with the electability of Romney.

I think Romney comes off much worse than McCain and had absolutely no centers of strength to use. He is not a decorated vet or a long long term popular politician. He is a corporate phony and that fundraising clip pretty much sealed his defeat. What I find fitting is I knew he was that kind of corp-otician already, but others did not and it took this clip to open the eyes of many.
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#14
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:24:59 PM
And Romney's VP is not a rock star like Palin.
You need a little charisma, Romney has none of that.
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#15
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:25:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

The OP is confusing the dislike of Obama with the electability of Romney.

I think Romney comes off much worse than McCain and had absolutely no centers of strength to use. He is not a decorated vet or a long long term popular politician. He is a corporate phony and that fundraising clip pretty much sealed his defeat. What I find fitting is I knew he was that kind of corp-otician already, but others did not and it took this clip to open the eyes of many.
you knew it.   YOu are amazing.  Can't believe you know him so well.  
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#16
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:42:03 PM
His issues arent a secret, he comes off as a stiff corporate suit, he does not seem to have a connection with the common folk. He is elitist and hollow, his lack of connection with the plebans is his biggest concern.
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#17
Posted: 9/29/2012 2:21:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

His issues arent a secret, he comes off as a stiff corporate suit, he does not seem to have a connection with the common folk. He is elitist and hollow, his lack of connection with the plebans is his biggest concern.
I agree with you, unlike Obama 4 yrs ago, who is the most left leaning pres but tried playing like he is a centrist.  Didn't matter anyway,  Jesus Christ wasn't winning in 08.   But along those same lines as you mentioned before, now we know Obama too.  He has done a horrible job w the economy, his main accomplishment is healthcare which is still so unpopular.  So why is the public still supporting him?  Is it just a lack of support for Romney?  With obama's horrendous record he should be getting bet handily.
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#18
Posted: 9/29/2012 2:45:24 PM
I completely agree with you NJLI. With Obama's record Romney should be killing him, but he isn't. The question people should be asking is why? I think it goes back go to what Bush did, especially during his second term. Bush, who essentially represented the Republican Party, did such a bad job that the average citizen no longer has any trust for the GOP. This is why Americans were finally willing to elect a minority as oppose to another old, white, male.

I think the Palin factor played didn't help McCain, but quite honestly he could have cured cancer on his campaign and he wasn't going to win.

Romney just isn't all that electable. People don't want a guy with a history of flip flopping and a sketchy background in business dealings. He doesn't come across as very trustworthy. Had the GOP backed Ron Paul like they did for almost every other candidate that ran for their nomination, he would be their nominee and he would be clearly out in front of this election. Ron Paul would have put a huge dent in some of the demographics Obama counts on, especially young people.

I'm surprise more of the "anyone but Obama" crowd on here isn't more disappointed with the GOP for backing the wrong guy.
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#19
Posted: 9/29/2012 2:52:24 PM
Ktrain,

I think Paul would have been destroyed worse than Romney to be honest..RP has never been under the intense scrutiny of being the front runner, always near last in the pack and able to take his shots from the last row.

No way Paul would win, I am not even sure why he wasted his followers and PAC buddies money, he never had a shot.
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#20
Posted: 9/29/2012 3:58:44 PM
Wall, you're entitled to your opinion and I respect that. Obviously I disagree, I think voters would have bought in to his beliefs and policies in a similar manner they bought into Obama's four years ago.

Paul destroyed the other nominees at the GOP debates. If he had any kind of media backing the way other nominees did he probably would have gained more traction. I think the same thing would have held true if the GOP had given him the same backing they are giving Romney.

To me, Paul's beliefs and up front honesty about the way the country is ran is very similar to Obama's "Hope and Change" from four years ago. Difference being Paul spells out a game plan for it.
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#21
Posted: 9/29/2012 4:07:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by promark12:

Well, I doubt die-hard Red Sox fans would ever bet on the Yankees.  But sometimes they should (like this year).  According to polls, states leaning towards Obama add up to 265 electoral votes.  States leaning Romney add up to 191.  It takes 271 to win the election.  Therefore,  Romney would HAVE to win every remaining swing state to get elected.  Not an easy task considering momentum is on Obama's side.

The arguement "I don't know anybody who likes Obama" is an emotional one.  The polls tell a different story.




Spot on analysis 

Should be the end of discussion for any logical mind.


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#22
Posted: 9/29/2012 4:31:40 PM
"I don't know anybody voting for Obama" tells more about you and where you live than anything else.

If you're description is right, you're probably a white guy living in Kentucky.  If that's the case then I wouldn't be surprised if you don't know any Obama voters. 
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#23
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:03:12 AM

"It's not the people that vote who count, it's the people that count the votes." -Jospeh Stalin

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#24
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:11:47 AM

Obama has the dead vote.

 

Nuff Said

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#25
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:45:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by animals26:

"It's not the people that vote who count, it's the people that count the votes." -Jospeh Stalin



...and the people who decide who's allowed to vote and whose vote counts.
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