Vitriol Free political odds discussion

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Author: [Politics] Topic: Vitriol Free political odds discussion
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 2/19/2012 10:39:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dl36:

but that is is a true hedge.... in no way comparable to your swiss cheese roulette hedge... you even admit on your own thread that it is not a true hedge... so trying to compare it to a true hedge is not logical....

and the basic principles which I said earlier still stands... 

1. the size of the bet needed for it to make it worth your while... especially at your -274 odds...

2.  The length of time the money is tied up in the bet... especially considering the amount...

3.  The liability of losing it all...

4.  Your are failing on being vitriol free on your own thread...

I stand by what I say...  and of course as always I am not afraid to be wrong if I am... but your basketball analogy is a fail....

read the thread...  I said it is more like a soccer game where there are 3 outcomes of differing probability...  win, lose, tie... and you are betting on two on a partial hedge leaving the least probably outcome wide open...

wouldnt you agree that the soccer analogy is more accurate then your basketball one?



So please tell me where I am wrong...  or show me the value you spoke of in your initial post...

you keep telling me I am wrong, but you fail to show it...
esplanade PM esplanade
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Posted: 2/19/2012 11:02:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:



This alone proves you to be a moron. If you had the opportunity
to bet:

Basketball prop
First points scored by a starter from team A +200
First points scored by a starter from team B +150

You wouldn't bet it right?? It's not a complete hedge.
It's way under +800.




---------------

(and your math was wrong)


+200 superior to market at time of post.
+155 superior to market at time of post
+155 superior to market now
+155 superior to your bet now

Pair them up or don't. If you were inclined to bet R @ that point it was a value play as well as if you were betting obama. What is so hard for you to understand??

Also if you do the math (competently) it computes to -264, so apparently even that is beyond your grasp. But just the fact that you are Friday morning QB'ing is sad.

And it's laughable that you would talk about the amount of time money is tied up, when

1
2
3
4

All apply to your bet equally or more.

Your money is tied up forever. How much are you betting at -1whatever to make it worth your while with a 1 yr hold and the very real possibility of losing it all.

I offered you options that were better than what you had and if you can't differentiate between a hedge and an arb, you should stick to threads pertaining to fabricated deflowering of virgins.
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 2/20/2012 1:39:23 AM
how is +155 superior to the market?

obama wins and Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes are two completely different wagers with two completely different odds...

true or not true?

dl36 PM dl36
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Posted: 2/20/2012 1:41:40 AM
pair them up or not?

which one did you do?
dl36 PM dl36
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Posted: 2/20/2012 1:43:55 AM
show me the math on -264 odds for your "partial hedge"...

does the -274 vs the -264 create the "value" you speak of?  because it doesnt for me especially with losing it all if obama wins by 330 or more votes being the numbers on the roulette table you are not covering...
dl36 PM dl36
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Posted: 2/20/2012 1:58:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dl36:

how is +155 superior to the market?

obama wins and Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes are two completely different wagers with two completely different odds...

true or not true?



your vitirol is a pretty clear sign that you are reeling...

If not would simply have a discussion about the numbers...  I dont mind being wrong so regardless of how you try to insult me on your own vitirol free thread it is really of no consequence to me..


I just want to figure out what exactly it is that you are betting...  and where the value is as I dont see a -274 or -264 odds partial hedge on Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes as having value...

So start with this one before you become dizzy again...

obama wins and Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes are two completely different wagers with two completely different odds...

true or not true?

dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 2/20/2012 5:53:40 PM
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 2/23/2012 1:44:15 AM
obama wins and Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes are two completely different wagers with two completely different odds...

true or not true?



dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 2/26/2012 3:16:24 AM
let answer... obama wins is not the same as obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes...

So when you say:

+200 superior to market at time of post.
+155 superior to market at time of post
+155 superior to market now
+155 superior to your bet now

I am assuming that you are comparing your obama wins with 329 or less with obama wins which is completely different bets with completely different odds...

Once again...   the less numbers you cover on the roulette table, the better odds you get... 

right?

dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 2/27/2012 6:27:34 AM
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/3/2012 2:57:09 AM
before you start posting BS on another thread, answer these questions on your own thread
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/8/2012 7:25:28 PM
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/10/2012 5:14:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dl36:

before you start posting BS on another thread, answer these questions on your own thread



dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/15/2012 3:41:05 AM
Why not just fess up and answer my questions rather then running like a coward with your tail between your legs
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/16/2012 5:52:38 AM
wiseguy43 PM wiseguy43
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wiseguy43
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Posted: 3/16/2012 9:11:28 AM
I think you should care less about the friggin odds of who wins president and more about what the hell these dipshits are doing to OUR that's right I said OUR country. Soon we may not even get to have disscusions like this. Just yesterday our douchebag government seized a site just like this that I have been using for years to look up gamgling advice. Tell me why it's any of homeland securitys business to darn around with this type of stuff when our country has greater issues at hand and, why is it illegal to gamble on sports. We put so much money into the hands of these athletes and into sports in general dont you think we should be able to get some of this back? If it's ok to invest money into the stock market and for them to advertise it on tv then how the darn is that any different from gambling? The people have lost control of this country and its almost about time to get it back. If gambling is so bad then why is it legal in Vegas. The government also has this bright idea that they are going to start taxing us on purchases through the internet!!!!! What a crock of garbage! Please I ask you take five or ten minutes out of your day to go down or call your local rep and chew his or her behind out and remind them that this country is for the people not the dipshits that represent it in office!!!
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/17/2012 7:54:02 PM
wiseguy, this is a political betting thread...

and espalande is trying to us that a partial hedge on a -274 odds
(where you could still lose it all) is good value...

read the thread and you will understand the discussion better...


esplanade PM esplanade
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esplanade
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Posted: 3/17/2012 11:42:18 PM
Could you be more pathetic?


dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/21/2012 4:47:40 AM
how I am pathetic?  This is your bet..

Just man up and answer the questions...

lets try this again...

obama wins is not the same as obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes...

So when you say:

+200 superior to market at time of post.
+155 superior to market at time of post
+155 superior to market now
+155 superior to your bet now

I am assuming that you are comparing your obama wins with 329 or less with obama wins which is completely different bets with completely different odds...

Once again...   the less numbers you cover on the roulette table, the better odds you get... 

right?

dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/25/2012 4:10:57 PM
its funny how the talk of the actual numbers sends you running
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 3/27/2012 3:51:46 AM
esplanade PM esplanade
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esplanade
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Posted: 3/27/2012 4:38:05 AM
Bored of you.
dl36 PM dl36
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dl36
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Posted: 4/5/2012 1:40:46 AM
LOL!

anything other then answering the questions...

I got you ducking your head like a scared turtle...
SarasotaSlim PM SarasotaSlim
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SarasotaSlim
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Posted: 4/5/2012 2:00:09 AM

Esplanade ,

LQQKs like someone has a very creepy obsession ..........

dl36 PM dl36
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quote#100
Posted: 4/9/2012 10:33:00 PM
with dodging me
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