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Author: [Politics] Topic: Vitriol Free political odds discussion
dl36 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
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#26
Posted: 2/3/2012 6:49:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:

Yes......it's totally different than betting the majority of the roulette numbers, as that is totally random.

Is it as likely to you that obama runs the board and gets every single electoral vote as he does not??

Almost regardless of obama electoral vote count (within reason) I can beat the current offered price on obama?

No one is telling you to bet both sides anyway.....


First off I am not betting both sides...  I got obama wins at -113 when the price was right...  This is your bet we are talking about...

I am not going to hedge it either... like I said, hedge talk usually starts at odds like +800...  The fact that you were talking hedge on a +150 bet and a "partial hedge" at that didnt sit right with me as a gambler...  that is why I asked you to talk about the actual math behind your numbers...

taking your "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes for +150".  and doing a partial hedge with the liability of losing it all and dropping your odds to -274 just seems beyond watered down and from conventional gambler wisdom seems like a poor bet...

I mean in with vig/juice like -274, people would call you a square by trying to play it safe, but there is nothing safe about your bet when there is the loophole of losing it all if Obama wins with 330 or more electoral votes...

so to say regardless of vote count is just not true... vote count makes a huge difference in your "partial hedge"...

and as I said earlier, I am sure that your "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes for +150" will get better odds then Obama wins because once again it is like playing majority of the roulette numbers...

You are correct that the comparison is not exactly the same as the each number has the same chance to hit and therefore each outcome pays the same...

But what happens in your bet is that outcomes of less probability have higher payouts and then outcomes of higher probability have lower payouts...  and then with how you structure the math behind the allocation of units,  each outcome pays relatively the same...

so although the probability of each out come is not the same as in roulette, the fact that you make the choice to structure the allocation of your units to pay out relatively the same is very similar to roulette...  So what you chose to do mirrors the roulette table outcome...

Perhaps with the 3 possible outcomes the metaphor of betting on soccer would make more sense to you...  You "partial hedge bet" is like betting on two of the three out comes in terms of win, lose and tie...

and then making the choice to allocate units so that both of your picks pay out the same and you leave yourself open for the outcome you did not bet on...

I talked about the large amount of money needed to profit on -274  for a "partial hedge" on your "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes for +150" as needing a large amount of units and the risk of that is concerning...

But as a gambler, tying up a large number of units on a -274  for a "partial hedge" with the possible risk of losing it all seems like a poor investment of resources that could be used on NBA/NHL/MLB/NFL and whatever you want to bet on before november...

It seems like my "gambler gut feelings" in my original statements make more and more sense when we break down the math and number on your  "partial hedge" on your "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes" bet...

Wouldnt you agree or am I wrong....  as I said earlier, I do not mind being wrong... 


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#27
Posted: 2/3/2012 9:56:35 PM
That's a lot of writing but I'm not convinced he wins at all in which case your bet blows and if I am leaning that way I like +155 A LOT MORE than your play. I could add 50 delegates to the +155 and still get a better price than you got AND I CAN GET IT NOW as opposed to months ago. That takes me all the way to 379-159.

So yes, I'll say you are wrong and left.
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#28
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:16:30 PM
Well the vitriol free part didn't last long. 
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#29
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:21:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Renton:

Well the vitriol free part didn't last long. 


this was the first post in the whole thread that seemed to go off topic

as far as I can see both the OP and my self conducted ourselves well...
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#30
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:25:28 PM
well renton... perhaps he kinda lost it when he said my obama -113 bet "blows"...

I think most people would agree that -113 on obama is a decent price at this point...

and the wrong and left crap...

yeah I take it back renton.... you're correct...


He lost it on his own thread by inserting the vitriol


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#31
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:35:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dl36:

well renton... perhaps he kinda lost it when he said my obama -113 bet "blows"...

I think most people would agree that -113 on obama is a decent price at this point...

and the wrong and left crap...

yeah I take it back renton.... you're correct...


He lost it on his own thread by inserting the vitriol




Yeah I was pointing to post # 27 when I made that comment.

Hats off though... you guys kept it clean for a full page, that's unprecedented.
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#32
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:38:08 PM
Oh... and I'd take Obama approaching - 200, even - 250 if he went with Clinton as VP.

I just don't see him losing to anyone at this point.
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#33
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:40:50 PM
I got a bit dizzy just looking at your lengthy post.

I'm happy that you think you have a winner. I still like the R @ +200 more than I like your play and I like O < 379 @ -103 more than I like your play but hey good luck to you.

Assuredly you should see some value to the statement that you've been sitting on that bet for a long time and this is still available.

You asked me if you were wrong and I agreed with you that you are. That's not vitriol.

Everyone knows you're a lefty. Perhaps you consider that a pejorative but many people wear it proudly. Vitriol 0.

And saying that your bet blows if obama loses is prima facia or obvious.

Unconvincing but good luck anyway.




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#34
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:41:03 PM
Renton,

what is your opinion of the -113 Obama odds I bought in on last year?

Regardless of espalande's opinion, I thought I bought in at a pretty good price...


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#35
Posted: 2/3/2012 10:48:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dl36:

Renton,

what is your opinion of the -113 Obama odds I bought in on last year?

Regardless of espalande's opinion, I thought I bought in at a pretty good price...



Great odds... likely a winner, but I hate placing future bets.

It's a tough market for wagering, especially for you guys, I wouldn't want my money tied up for that long in this uncertain industry. 
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#36
Posted: 2/4/2012 1:55:06 AM
I hear you... one of the points I made on the -274 odds "parital hedge"

I put about 20% of my heritage account on obama -113 and transferred the rest to 5 dimes...

I usually dont like futures in general unless you are picking long shots, but I did not think that the price was going to get better and was just trying to buy low while the price seemed good

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#37
Posted: 2/4/2012 2:37:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:

That's a lot of writing but I'm not convinced he wins at all in which case your bet blows and if I am leaning that way I like +155 A LOT MORE than your play. I could add 50 delegates to the +155 and still get a better price than you got AND I CAN GET IT NOW as opposed to months ago. That takes me all the way to 379-159.

So yes, I'll say you are wrong and left.


Since you have done so well up till this post, I will ignore the tone and Spin and simply return to our discussion on the lines that are what you call "prices that seem to have a lot of value".

If you are not convinced that obama wins, then why are you even putting money on "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes for +155"?

Or is that the "partial hedge"? 

As I said before, I dont mind being wrong...

so since you say I am wrong on my observations of your bet, please tell me where I am wrong on my perception/math on your bet....

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#38
Posted: 2/4/2012 4:10:17 PM


so since you say I am wrong on my observations of your bet, please tell me where I am wrong on my perception/math on your bet....
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#39
Posted: 2/5/2012 2:02:02 AM
Lets try this again... because you attributed the length of my post for your inability to keep the thread vitriol free...

so lets break this down in a shorter form

Are you saying that taking your "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes or GOP wins"on a "partial hedge" at -274 odds is what seems "to have a lot of value:"?

Because I disagree, but maybe I'm wrong... as I keep saying, I'm okay with being wrong



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#40
Posted: 2/5/2012 10:21:42 PM
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#41
Posted: 2/6/2012 3:29:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:

I got a bit dizzy just looking at your lengthy post.

I'm happy that you think you have a winner. I still like the R @ +200 more than I like your play and I like O < 379 @ -103 more than I like your play but hey good luck to you.

Assuredly you should see some value to the statement that you've been sitting on that bet for a long time and this is still available.

You asked me if you were wrong and I agreed with you that you are. That's not vitriol.

Everyone knows you're a lefty. Perhaps you consider that a pejorative but many people wear it proudly. Vitriol 0.

And saying that your bet blows if obama loses is prima facia or obvious.

Unconvincing but good luck anyway.






are you going to hedge with that bet?

can you show me the math behind that bet?

sans the vitriol tho please
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#42
Posted: 2/6/2012 2:25:11 PM
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#43
Posted: 2/8/2012 1:44:04 AM
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#44
Posted: 2/8/2012 1:56:49 AM

Rules: Moderators Top 10 List

9.) If it is determined that you are posting several emoticons for the purpose of increasing your post total, the moderators have the option of reducing your post total and sending you to the Penalty Box for rehab.

 

Just 133 more -->   and you will reach MVP status ..good scheme.

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#45
Posted: 2/9/2012 2:19:40 AM
looks like the wannabe mod is at is again... more regulation...
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#46
Posted: 2/9/2012 2:22:29 AM
espalande, why did you even make this thread proposing a discussion?

Its like the minute that an actual assessment of the math and logic behind your picks started you completely lost it....

I simply was giving you a perspective on hedging and betting value and giving you some simple metaphors to consider...  what exactly did you want to happen because once the vitriol free discussion started you seemed to have difficulty in participating in the dialog you proposed...


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#47
Posted: 2/10/2012 2:40:22 AM
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#48
Posted: 2/12/2012 1:27:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Renton:

Well the vitriol free part didn't last long. 


and now he is running to other threads to try to continue the discussion becasue he knows that is not capable of having a vitriol free analysis of his plays...

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#49
Posted: 2/12/2012 1:28:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dl36:

Lets try this again... because you attributed the length of my post for your inability to keep the thread vitriol free...

so lets break this down in a shorter form

Are you saying that taking your "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes or GOP wins"on a "partial hedge" at -274 odds is what seems "to have a lot of value:"?

Because I disagree, but maybe I'm wrong... as I keep saying, I'm okay with being wrong





 and try posting your answer on this thread please...
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#50
Posted: 2/12/2012 1:37:48 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by dl36:

looks like the wannabe mod is at is again... more regulation...

QUOTE Originally Posted dl36

and now he is running to other threads to try to continue the discussion becasue he knows that is not capable of having a vitriol free analysis of his plays...


QUOTE Originally Posted by dl36:

and try posting your answer on this thread please...

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