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Author: [Politics] Topic: Vitriol Free political odds discussion
esplanade send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/24/2012 4:25:07 PM
Here are some current prices that seem to have a lot of value.

Romney to win the presidency +400
(That's akin to getting him at E to win the nomination and then +150 to defeat obama) That is tremendous value.

Newt to win +650 (That's down from 33/1 last week)

If you stagger Newt and Mitt appropriately, that computes to +200 on the pair, which sounds amazing.

Alternately obama is available at constructed +150 odds on the electoral count at one of my books.

Taking obama +150 & Mitt/Newt +200 is a pretty nice hedge.

THE QUESTION IS: What is the chance that neither M/N get the nomination? The most obvious way is that RS or RP win the nomination.......but that isn't happening. Secondarily and probably more likely is that it gets so heated between M/N that neither has enough delegates and they nominate someone else.

I know the likelihood of that is low, but how exactly does that work?
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#2
Posted: 1/24/2012 4:49:56 PM

Brokered Convention ...........

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#3
Posted: 1/24/2012 5:06:06 PM
THE QUESTION IS: What is the chance that neither M/N get the nomination? The most obvious way is that RS or RP win the nomination.......but that isn't happening. Secondarily and probably more likely is that it gets so heated between M/N that neither has enough delegates and they nominate someone else.

how many frontrunners have there been?  it seems like everyone (except RP) has had his/her day, even the ones that have no chance against obama.

with the way things are going, i think obama -150 is your best bet. 
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#4
Posted: 1/24/2012 5:28:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



 i think obama -150 is your best bet. 


+150 my friend, I wouldn't touch -150. That isn't to win outright, that's to win with less than 329 delegates and integrates three distinct pricing levels (+400, +700, +1400) which is +155.
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#5
Posted: 1/24/2012 5:30:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:



+150 my friend, I wouldn't touch -150. That isn't to win outright, that's to win with less than 329 delegates and integrates three distinct pricing levels (+400, +700, +1400) which is +155.


i was just looking at pinnacle which shows the democrat at about -150 to win the presidency. 

not saying i'm happy about it, i just think it's the best bet right now. 
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#6
Posted: 1/24/2012 7:07:50 PM

At the Republican convention neither Mitt or Newt have enough delegates like ClubDirt say's so the  Republican establishment takes control of a Brokered Convention ..........the Party elite have already picked out their back-up nomineee ..he is the person who will be giving the GOP’s rebuttal to Obama’s SOTUA tonight ...and he's a good one.

This new face nominee draws voters from the Indy's and the right and is able to draw the Party together ...he than goes on to beat President Obama and the bookies clear the table ...

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#7
Posted: 1/24/2012 7:44:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by esplanade:

Here are some current prices that seem to have a lot of value.

Romney to win the presidency +400
(That's akin to getting him at E to win the nomination and then +150 to defeat obama) That is tremendous value.

Newt to win +650 (That's down from 33/1 last week)

If you stagger Newt and Mitt appropriately, that computes to +200 on the pair, which sounds amazing.

Alternately obama is available at constructed +150 odds on the electoral count at one of my books.

Taking obama +150 & Mitt/Newt +200 is a pretty nice hedge.

THE QUESTION IS: What is the chance that neither M/N get the nomination? The most obvious way is that RS or RP win the nomination.......but that isn't happening. Secondarily and probably more likely is that it gets so heated between M/N that neither has enough delegates and they nominate someone else.

I know the likelihood of that is low, but how exactly does that work?

So under this scenario, you win cash unless someone other than Romney/Gingrich win the nomination or if Obama wins by a large margin?

You have plenty of time to hedge on the Obama bet, although your best time is right after the Repub nomination.

I, on the other hand, am an idiot. I have been sitting on my Romney futures for nearly 18 months at +2100. Just a few weeks ago, I could have covered myself at Gingrich +2200.

I will be seriously selling right after the Repub. convention, then will some some Obama money back after the Dem. convention.

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#8
Posted: 1/24/2012 10:27:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:



+150 my friend, I wouldn't touch -150. That isn't to win outright, that's to win with less than 329 delegates and integrates three distinct pricing levels (+400, +700, +1400) which is +155.


Im interested in your angle on obama +150...

Can you show us the math behind how you come up with that?

I appreciate an actual discussion about political betting as the forum is actually titled..
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#9
Posted: 1/29/2012 2:48:17 AM
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#10
Posted: 1/31/2012 4:01:13 PM
still waiting...
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#11
Posted: 1/31/2012 4:51:49 PM
Ok, just because you are so endearing.....................

Obama Delegate Count       Odds       Bet
270-289                                +400       1.00 U
290-309                                +700         .625U
310-329                                +1400       .3333U

So you are risking 1.9583 U to win 3.0417 (4*100-.625-.3333) or +155

If you are a tried and true obama koolaid drinker, you might add

330-349                                +2000         .2380U

in which case you have obama @ +128

Obviously you could lose if obama wins by a margin of 350-188 or larger.

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#12
Posted: 1/31/2012 4:56:46 PM
Espy, that's fascinating.  I don't see Obama getting more than 350.  And you could take the GOP guy at plus odds and root for a close game.
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#13
Posted: 2/1/2012 2:14:35 AM
So when we do the math....

I am seeing that your bet is "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes for +150"...  I think it is different then simply wins Obama +150... I think goose quoted that at -150...

I think that this is one of those cases of not covering all of the numbers on the roulette wheel to get better odds... But perhaps worth a gamble in a one shot trial...

I am not sure if "Obama wins with 349 or less electoral votes for +128" is worth it...

Considering Obama won with 365 last time, I would think that covering your self with Obama wins with 349 or less electoral votes for +128" might be worth shaving off +22...





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#14
Posted: 2/1/2012 3:20:07 AM
sorry it was dirt that quoted the -150...


Im looking at your "obama +155 & Mitt/Newt +200 hedge".

What is the math behind that?  I usually think about hedging in cases of +800 or more, not off of +150... 


It seems that it would take large amount of units for this to be worth it...
So risking that "Obama gets more the 330 electoral votes" does not happen at the amount needed to for a decent pay out with the hedge seems risky...

"Obama wins with 349 or less electoral votes for +128" might be safer, but then the hedge would be even less effective and requiring higher risk with no safety net if obama loses...

So in my mind your biggest problem is the amount needed to make this bet worth your time...  and the risk in each of the strategies and how the newt/romney hedge only further water downs the bet and increasing the number of units involved in the bet... this seems like a pretty big liability...


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#15
Posted: 2/1/2012 1:18:39 PM
I'm not sure what math you did........and definitely am not too concerned with what you think.

As far as "decent payouts" and all the other stuff you wrote.......I have a feeling that you're a fairly small bettor and obviously the payout is relative to the risk.

If you don't comprehend that Mitt+Newt @ +200 is better than +140 on the Republican nominee and that obama <350 @ +128 is better than obama to win -150......

then I can't help you.


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#16
Posted: 2/2/2012 3:10:36 AM
What are you even talking about?

I get that +200 romney and newt is better then +140 on any GOP candidate..

I get that with covering less electoral votes will result in better odds...  not sure where you are getting confused...

I am trying to figure out what it is that we disagree upon in the math you presented


But my point was that "your version of hedging" a +150 bet is watered down...

regardless of size of units "your version of hedging" a +150 does not seem worth it with the type of liability you have with in your bet...

That is why I wanted to see the actual bet you are planning on making... mainly the percentage of profit you are thinking you are going to get in proportion to the total number of units bet...

So the issue is not about amount per a unit as in a Vitriol Free political odds discussion there would be no need for me to try to be insulting insinuating that you are a small timer...

 But  when talking about the math, the proportion of risk vs reward is in the issue regardless of unit size... that is why we talk in units... unit size is of absolutely no consequence other then ego...


You are not middling or betting  < +100 odds on both sides... The proper metaphor for "your version of hedging" is that you are basically covering majority of the numbers on the craps table leaving some open to get better odds...

but in the end if you were to play 33 of the total numbers on the table, although odds are with you that you will win there are two problems...

1. You have a small profit in comparison to what you are betting...  (Please show the math behind your hedge to show the exact proportion of risk vs reward)...

2.  You take a big risk for such a small proportional reward on a +150 bet because "your version of hedging" actually results in the possibility of losing it all...

You know that in a gambling forum if you were to start talking about hedging on a +150 bet people would probably tell you to let it ride... but to hedge and at the same time leave your self open to losing it all isnt really hedging in the classical sense now is it?

Please show the math behind your hedge to show the exact proportion of risk vs reward to disprove my basic premises...  I dont know mind being proven wrong... Just want to clarify what your bet really is...


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#17
Posted: 2/2/2012 4:13:52 AM
Correction...

craps table = Roulette table...

Let me simplify it for you...

how many units are you betting on "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes for +150"?

and

how many units are you betting on your Mitt/Newt +200 "hedge"?

Just want to clarify what your bet really is...





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#18
Posted: 2/2/2012 3:53:43 PM
Again, pure math..........

1 U on Obama per .85 U on Mitt/Newt

and fine......it's a partial hedge


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#19
Posted: 2/2/2012 4:15:01 PM
Mitt wins the nominee/Obama wins the general
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#20
Posted: 2/2/2012 4:22:59 PM

for some strange reason 5dimes pulled all there politcal lines......

 

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#21
Posted: 2/2/2012 4:24:15 PM

If you're wondering, and i know you are, yes, you can still bet on the grammys through 5dimes.

 

 

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#22
Posted: 2/3/2012 2:57:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:

Again, pure math..........

1 U on Obama per .85 U on Mitt/Newt

and fine......it's a partial hedge




So based on your bet there are three possible outcomes

1. "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes for +150".  

win 1.5 units - lose .85 units = +0.65 units

2. Mitt/newt wins for +200

win 1.7 units - lose 1 unit = +.7 units

3.  Obama wins with 330 or more electoral votes = -1.85 units

So if we average your possible winning scenarios at .675 units

You are basically betting 1.85 units to win .675 units on "Obama wins with 329 or less electoral votes or Mitt/newt wins for +200"
 
which comes out to -274 odds right?

and still has the possibility of losing it all as a part of the bet correct?

I dont mind being wrong... but like I said the "partial hedge" seems very watered down... especially with the liability of losing it all while having to put down about $274 to win $100....

Again, this reminds me covering majority of the numbers on the roulette table to get better odds...

I am incorrect with the math that I am making these assumptions on? obviously you know how to do the math so this should all be obvious...
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#23
Posted: 2/3/2012 12:44:24 PM
Yes......it's totally different than betting the majority of the roulette numbers, as that is totally random.

Is it as likely to you that obama runs the board and gets every single electoral vote as he does not??

Almost regardless of obama electoral vote count (within reason) I can beat the current offered price on obama?

No one is telling you to bet both sides anyway.....
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#24
Posted: 2/3/2012 6:24:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by drJ:

Mitt wins the nominee/Obama wins the general


As a gambler this is probably the post that makes the most sense on this thread...
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#25
Posted: 2/3/2012 6:45:28 PM
will there be an election if we are at war with iran?
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