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Author: [Investments] Topic: I have gift for all of you ...
cave0707 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
cave0707
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#1
Posted: 1/18/2013 11:49:16 AM
Ticker symbol INVN ... thank me after earnings next week.
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#2
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:04:29 PM
Their MEMs sensors are currently in the Samsung Galaxy S 3, Samsung Note 2, Kindle Fire HD, Google Nexus 4/7, Nintendo game consoles, etc, etc.  Their earnings guidance in October did not take into account the acceleration in sales from the Samsung Galaxy products.  Given Samsung is now 22-23% of revenues, I see this lil factoid as material and will positively impact their calendar Q4 earnings.  And it looks like the Galaxy S3 and Note 2 are taking over market share from Apple at a rapid rate going into 2013.  Also the Google Nexus 4 has sold out numerous times at the Google Play+ store.  LG (manufacturer for Google Nexus 4) said that demand for the Nexus 4 has exceeded their initial expectations.  INVN now has their chips in the hottest products going into 2013 ... fellas I expect a bump in their full year guidance.  INVN is selling at $12.50 ... you'll never see these prices again after earnings.  My gift to you ... seize this opportunity ..
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#3
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:36:03 PM
The stock is currently priced pretty rich relative to most matrices. They are selling at 10 times sales and 10 times cash.

They do have pretty nice margins, but it is too bad even at half off their highs, the stock is still selling at such high multiples.
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#4
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:51:39 PM
Nice margins and NO debt.  I see your point, but with growth stocks, especially newer names (IPO within a couple years), I don't use standard valuation metrics since it would most likely eliminate the fastest movers.  I do have respect for the value plays and the value investor, but this stock is for the short-to-intermediate term trader.  It has a very reasonable potential to report a higher top/bottom line eps in q4 and the same potential to *raise* guidance going forward.  And given the industry it's in (semiconductor - specialty ... high growth) and the customers they have secured (Samsung - smartphones/tablets), my bet is this stock is gunna jump in the near term ... and that my friend ... is all i care about ... dollar signs!!!
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#5
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:53:50 PM
wallstreet ... maybe take a small piece for yourself ... 1/3 or 1/4 size of your normal position. 
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#6
Posted: 1/18/2013 1:02:07 PM

Wallstreet - what do you think about these new mortgage service providers?  Tickers NSM, OCN, HLSS??  Big news the other day when Bank of America unloaded billions to these guys. 

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#7
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:00:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cave0707:

Wallstreet - what do you think about these new mortgage service providers?  Tickers NSM, OCN, HLSS??  Big news the other day when Bank of America unloaded billions to these guys. 



I hadnt looked at them to be honest but I will this weekend. I dont like the idea of owning a mortgage service provider given the delicate housing environment we are in, but I will take a peek.

I am also tempted on your original stock, I agree that multiples are not the only thing to consider in a growth stock.
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#8
Posted: 1/19/2013 12:20:42 AM
Cave, you might be onto something here. 

Apple is caving in and Samsung might be the biggest beneficiary of their downfall.. After all, Google's Android OS is used in a number of phones.. not least the Galaxy from Samsung. 

I'm not sure what the play is to be honest with you.. I think Apple's downfall will be spread among a number of different players... including RIMM .. 
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#9
Posted: 1/19/2013 8:32:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cave0707:

Wallstreet - what do you think about these new mortgage service providers?  Tickers NSM, OCN, HLSS??  Big news the other day when Bank of America unloaded billions to these guys. 

I compliment you on taking a notice as that unload was highly irregular act contradicting FED warnings we're not out of the woods yet
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#10
Posted: 1/19/2013 8:34:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rush51:

Cave, you might be onto something here. 

Apple is caving in and Samsung might be the biggest beneficiary of their downfall.. After all, Google's Android OS is used in a number of phones.. not least the Galaxy from Samsung. 

I'm not sure what the play is to be honest with you.. I think Apple's downfall will be spread among a number of different players... including RIMM .. 
Don't write off Apple so fast. Very serious players are backing Apple and in no time you'll see a recovery. Like always.
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#11
Posted: 1/20/2013 3:10:28 PM
The Master Seal Unlock LLC. has a annual forecast up, so earnings are projected in line of it next week.  Want know what happens this year? Get serious about trend amke some real moves that will put your capital to work.  The there is a chunk f money out in the market awaiting the the information in your hand.
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#12
Posted: 1/22/2013 3:57:13 PM

Looks like INVN gunna settle around $13.00 today ... last time I posted it was $12.50.  Tomorrow is earnings ... good luck to any longs.  Some good articles today regarding INVN ...

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/01/22/crus-ovti-invn-brcm-canaccord-pac-crest-mull-aapl-supplier-prospects/?mod=yahoobarrons

Looks like STMicro will lose their motion sensor (gyro/acceler) Apple contract to Invense during the course of the year.  That my friend will shoot this stock to its all time high in a hurry.  The CEO did say in the Vegas CES conference (early January) Invensense will serve all top tier smartphone manufacturers.  That is all you need to hear .... 

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#13
Posted: 1/22/2013 4:39:11 PM
Looks like Google underestimated its forecast for their Google Nexus 4 phone.  The demand was 10 times higher than expected.  Given INVN is the sole supplier of motion sensors for both Google's Nexus 4 smartphone and Nexus 7 tablet ... I'm *almost* certain INVN will raise guidance for their calendar Q1 2013 earnings.  An additional 4 million units will have a material impact on their top and bottom line figures.  Good luck ladies.
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#14
Posted: 1/22/2013 11:53:09 PM
Just want to say thanks, in advance... Read your posts over weekend, did my own due diligence and Picked up 2500 shares with a limit order this morning. Already up 1k and at the same time I bought 100 July calls at $15. So if it moves up a couple bucks I'll be sitting pretty. ( I've been looking at adding a peripheral play for smartphones for a while so this fit the bill. And I had done a lot of research in this area so I jumped on it fast.) thanks
Posted using a mobile device.
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#15
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:21:44 PM

Good luck to you CraigBuch, I've been tracking INVN since it's IPO.  I know this company and the space extremely well.  Obviously, there are no guarantees in trading stocks but this has too much upside, which I won't discuss anymore as it prolly sounds like a broken record.  The downside is Nintendo's Wii U sales.  They launched it late 2012 and the U.S. figures were under a million units ... with worldwide sales in the neighborhood of 1.8 mil (i think ... don't quote me on this) ... again these are 2012 figures which are on the light side of forecasts ... this won't affect calendar q4 earnings (they have a weird fiscal year end) but will affect guidance for calendar 2013, but the massive acceleration in galaxy products and new designs wins will more than make up for this.  If you're looking for another smartphone/tablet play, I'd recommend u looking into either ARMH or NXPI.  ARMH = mobile chips and/or NXPI = Near Field Communications chips.  I hold INVN and NXPI ... good luck to us after market close ... may the stock gods be on our side.  INTC and TXN reported weak guidance but they're *generalists* ... not niche smartphone/tablet plays like INVN, ARMH and/or NXPI.

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#16
Posted: 1/23/2013 12:26:59 PM
For the record, regarding INVN, i have 900 shares at $10.83, 400 shares at $12.44 and 400 shares at $12.51.  Bought this thing 3 times, 3 different days ... I'm kicking myself for not getting high 9's but i find it near impossible to get in at rock bottom prices ... this is my biggest position ...  in my portfolio ... by far ... hehehe
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#17
Posted: 1/23/2013 4:26:13 PM

eps an Revenue look good

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#18
Posted: 1/23/2013 4:29:13 PM
Eps looks decent ... Estimates at .17 and actual at .19 diluted.  Revs are more or less in line.  I honestly was expecting a little more than this.  While this is good news, it's not over flipping whelming.  Gunna listen to the conference call.  Maybe we get some good guidance figures. 
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#19
Posted: 1/23/2013 4:31:32 PM
up a little after market; hoping for good guidance as well
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#20
Posted: 1/23/2013 4:33:06 PM
let me know if anything on conf call; i can't tune in at the moment
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#21
Posted: 1/23/2013 4:49:16 PM
no problem
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#22
Posted: 1/23/2013 5:15:46 PM

lookin at the numbers; not bad but not blowin away estimates from what i see:

Just sold my 2500 shares after market at 13.25.  made $1500 or 5%

i'll keep my 100 June $15 options on the table. I'm up $1000 on that too

thank for the tip

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#23
Posted: 1/23/2013 5:19:13 PM

 whatever they Just said made it Jump - damn

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#24
Posted: 1/23/2013 5:41:16 PM
Conference Call - Calendar Q1 2013 will be in-line with wall street expectations ... diluted eps guiding a lil higher or by $0.01.   Need to double check those figures.  Looks like gaming ... or Nintendo ... is sequentially weaker ... which means that stupid Wii U is not selling fo sh*t BUT ... smartphone is sequentially stronger ... especially their largest customer says the CFO going into 2013.  So looks like the Samsung galaxies are selling above forecasts.  They won't or can't give guidance beyond calendar Q1 2013, since they have to wait for their new customers to announce first ... and that can be as early as June ... in terms of smartphones.  All in all, I'm not disappointed but again I'm not overwhelmed either.  Actually I'm disappointed in Nintendo more than anything else ... if they simply put out a better gaming console, they would have guided higher for calendar Q1 2013.    I expect a slow and steady climb for INVN after listening to the conference call, was hoping for a pop or a big jump ...
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#25
Posted: 1/23/2013 5:52:17 PM
ok cool thank you!  i made $ and have the calls still
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