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Author: [Investments] Topic: Guys, give me some guesses on the housing market
Rush51 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 10/14/2011 8:41:15 PM
Cash is indeed King.  
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#27
Posted: 10/17/2011 8:04:40 AM

This is my current plan ... i'm actually going to city hall to pay 1,000 dollars just to submit the application today.

I'm trying to turn my 2 family into a 3 family. It's in a nice area and i have the cash to do the attic over and make everything very "sexy". (dark hardwood floor, tile showers, granite, stainless etc)

If i can get the ok from the city ... then i will do all of this work and sell them as 3 condos.

If i sell the 3 condos .... I have talked to 2 appraisers ... they think i'll get 149k, 149k and 119k .... totaling 417k.

I owe 230k on the mortgage.

After fees and everything not going perfect i'm hoping to have 150k real cash and no real estate.

Then i want to FLIP HOUSES in Charlottte NC. I have researched and i think it's the best area to do this in the country.

I'm in the process of getting my RE license. Not sure i'm going to need it but it wont hurt.

Does anyone see a problem or a concern with this plan?

Any advice is welcomed ... thanks.

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#28
Posted: 10/17/2011 7:19:28 PM
Bottom not here yet..... Won't be here for some time... Atleast in socal.
Banks have so many homes still in inventory and not on market bc they don't want to further saturate an already terrible, market full of surplus supply.
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#29
Posted: 10/17/2011 10:21:17 PM
houses are going to zero, why on earth would anyone buy them as an investment
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#30
Posted: 10/18/2011 4:21:17 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by be easy:

houses are going to zero, why on earth would anyone buy them as an investment

so people are going to stop renting?

if people are still renting and houses cost 0 ... 

when the rental income brings in 2 times what the mortgage+taxes+ins is, i don't see how that's a bad investment.

so, you think the country is going under?

but, you still live here with your family?

 

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#31
Posted: 10/18/2011 5:58:38 AM

be easy, Norway is nice.

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#32
Posted: 10/18/2011 9:36:18 AM
Maybe we have a differing opinion on where the housing market is going.

I think you need to understand where house prices came from, how it happened, to understand where they are going

Bol

Disclaimer, i am a house owner,,,,,,er,,,,,mortgage debtor
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#33
Posted: 10/25/2011 10:49:14 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by be easy:

houses are going to zero, why on earth would anyone buy them as an investment

 why on earth would you own a home?

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#34
Posted: 11/1/2011 7:36:06 PM
Why isn't anyone into this garbage on covers.  
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#35
Posted: 11/2/2011 10:48:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by I_Need_A_Detox:

Why isn't anyone into this garbage on covers.  


probably because deep down they know that housing has a good 30-40% drop in store, and even thought they let their emotions get the best of them, and still buy into the lies, they don't want to make fools of themselves touting what is certain to be one of the worst investments out there today. The problem is, there aren't many good investments to be made these days. If you can get something with positive cash flow, BOL to you. However, as things sour further, you have to worry about your tenants stopping paying rent. THen they damage your place as you waste six months of time and money going thru the process of having them evicted. THEN, when you are downtrodden and ready to give up, you realize you cannot sell the place, and are stuck paying the prop taxes
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#36
Posted: 11/9/2011 1:44:14 PM
Detox! i wish you were in CDN bro! Your world would be flourishing up here! Our home prices have doubled in the last ten years!!!! Our housing market is white hot!! Dying a bit now but dying doesn't mean losing price just not increasing as fast.
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#37
Posted: 11/9/2011 1:56:55 PM
dtox get some some down in florida by the beaches and rent them out bigbill will rent one from you
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#38
Posted: 11/10/2011 12:56:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by be easy:



probably because deep down they know that housing has a good 30-40% drop in store, and even thought they let their emotions get the best of them, and still buy into the lies, they don't want to make fools of themselves touting what is certain to be one of the worst investments out there today. The problem is, there aren't many good investments to be made these days. If you can get something with positive cash flow, BOL to you. However, as things sour further, you have to worry about your tenants stopping paying rent. THen they damage your place as you waste six months of time and money going thru the process of having them evicted. THEN, when you are downtrodden and ready to give up, you realize you cannot sell the place, and are stuck paying the prop taxes

I have to disagree with you be easy. People aren't going to stop paying rent because the housing market decreases. I actually believe most renters don't even pay attention to the housing market. They just figure they will have to pay rent one way or another. If they find a cheaper place then they will move, and that will affect landlords rental prices. But the people who have been paying rent, will continue to do so. 

I live in an apartment complex with a bunch of units in Orange County. Our landlord just increased our rent on our 3 bedroom and my roommates and I didn't even toss around the idea of moving. I really didn't notice any turnover in other apartments either. Maybe that is just sheer laziness out of the tenants or maybe it's just the supply and demand of the area I live in. I know my example doesn't represent the market has a whole but it's an example. 

I think Detox is on the right track but I would like to see him hold on to his properties and just collect rent. But if he doesn't want to go through the hassle of keeping up with it, that's understandable. 
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#39
Posted: 11/14/2011 11:18:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:


I have to disagree with you be easy. People aren't going to stop paying rent because the housing market decreases. I actually believe most renters don't even pay attention to the housing market. They just figure they will have to pay rent one way or another. If they find a cheaper place then they will move, and that will affect landlords rental prices. But the people who have been paying rent, will continue to do so. 

I live in an apartment complex with a bunch of units in Orange County. Our landlord just increased our rent on our 3 bedroom and my roommates and I didn't even toss around the idea of moving. I really didn't notice any turnover in other apartments either. Maybe that is just sheer laziness out of the tenants or maybe it's just the supply and demand of the area I live in. I know my example doesn't represent the market has a whole but it's an example. 

I think Detox is on the right track but I would like to see him hold on to his properties and just collect rent. But if he doesn't want to go through the hassle of keeping up with it, that's understandable. 

I would hold if I thought I had enough, but i'd like to try to get a little more. IMO the "bottom" will stretch out for another 3 years.

So I'd like to get as much as possible in the next 3 years(by flipping) and then buy some solid rental properties to hold that have pretty good cash flow.

If I can get a few good cashflowing properties and then hold them until 2019-2021 ... pay them down a bit over 10 years and then sell when the market is starting to peak again.

I think there is money to be made right now just from taking cash only houses and bringing them up to FHA standards and selling.

I still have to wait for the hearing Dec 7th. That's the only down side ... all of this stuff seems to take forever to unfold.   

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#40
Posted: 11/15/2011 12:18:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by be easy:



probably because deep down they know that housing has a good 30-40% drop in store, and even thought they let their emotions get the best of them, and still buy into the lies, they don't want to make fools of themselves touting what is certain to be one of the worst investments out there today. The problem is, there aren't many good investments to be made these days. If you can get something with positive cash flow, BOL to you. However, as things sour further, you have to worry about your tenants stopping paying rent. THen they damage your place as you waste six months of time and money going thru the process of having them evicted. THEN, when you are downtrodden and ready to give up, you realize you cannot sell the place, and are stuck paying the prop taxes

95% of people tell me that my plan is .

But so far it seems to be

I'm glad i didn't listen to the people that had your opinion when i started all of this.

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#41
Posted: 11/15/2011 12:21:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bigbill365:

dtox get some some down in florida by the beaches and rent them out bigbill will rent one from you

bigbill, Detox was thinking about buying condos in Florida as the final rent and hold. There are a lot of cash only deals in Florida right now. 25k cash can get you a real nice condo that needs 10k worth of work.

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#42
Posted: 11/15/2011 12:23:29 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by be easy:

Maybe we have a differing opinion on where the housing market is going.

I think you need to understand where house prices came from, how it happened, to understand where they are going

Bol

Disclaimer, i am a house owner,,,,,,er,,,,,mortgage debtor

It's going to peak again in 2020-2022. GL.

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#43
Posted: 11/15/2011 12:25:00 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by be easy:

houses are going to zero, why on earth would anyone buy them as an investment

if you believe this than why would you buy a house?

That still doesn't make any sense to me.  

 

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#44
Posted: 11/15/2011 12:28:06 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Rush51:

Cash is indeed King.  

Especially right now. There are so many properties that are cash only deals ........ That cuts out 95% of the market.

That is my next step hopefully.

Buy cash only houses and make them financeable ... then sell em. There's about a 20-30k gap/profit just from taking it from cash only to financeable.

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#45
Posted: 11/15/2011 2:18:11 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by be easy:

houses are going to zero, why on earth would anyone buy them as an investment

"Disclaimer, i am a house owner,,,,,,er,,,,,mortgage debtor." - be easy

YEAH, that's makes sense.

be easy, could you please make sense of this thinking for me. thanks.

 

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#46
Posted: 11/15/2011 4:48:59 PM
95% of people tell you flipping houses is burning money. Cmon man, how do you expect me to continue a conversation with such blatant lies

What year were they saying that? What year did you begin? What metrics are you using to determine new housing peaks within the decade? Real and/or nominal terms?

As to your wuestioning me about why id choose to own a mortgage to a house, well i have to live somewhere, and i did my own math on rent the house vs rent the money. Its not an investment. It produces nothing outside of a place of shelter. Its actually an eternal anchor, prop taxes + maintenance

Hey, to each their own. Do what you do, and do it well

I think housing will reach 1997 prices in the next couple years
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#47
Posted: 11/15/2011 7:29:54 PM

I'm 30. I bought my first 2 family when both markets were crashing. 2009. I believe i was 27 so i think it was march of 09.  

be easy, i don't lie man .... seriously.

I have tried to not lie once.

I am just looking for thoughts and ideas ... that's all.

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#48
Posted: 11/17/2011 3:11:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by be easy:

95% of people tell you flipping houses is burning money. Cmon man, how do you expect me to continue a conversation with such blatant lies

What year were they saying that? What year did you begin? What metrics are you using to determine new housing peaks within the decade? Real and/or nominal terms?

As to your wuestioning me about why id choose to own a mortgage to a house, well i have to live somewhere, and i did my own math on rent the house vs rent the money. Its not an investment. It produces nothing outside of a place of shelter. Its actually an eternal anchor, prop taxes + maintenance

Hey, to each their own. Do what you do, and do it well

I think housing will reach 1997 prices in the next couple years

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#49
Posted: 11/22/2011 9:00:47 AM

I need to get this cash and start flipping. So many cash only deals all around the country.

20k for a single family is a sub outside of charlotte.

I wish i could fast forward the process.

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#50
Posted: 11/22/2011 11:54:00 PM
I noticed a few cash only houses the last year or two. Most were 1 or 2 bedroom run down houses that really weren't in great areas. Not necessarily crime ridden areas but they were off of fairly busy roads or the neighboring homes were rentals as well and weren't kept up.

For the purpose of renting though they seemed like a great opportunity for anyone that had the cash lying around. Unfortunately I didn't. We even did the math on them after property taxes and dropping $10k-$20k in repairs on them. It looked like it would produce a steady stream of income for years to come. 

This is why I don't agree with be easy's opinion that housing will go to zero. People will need a place to live. Just because a family forcloses on a home doesn't necessarily mean they are homeless. I understand the theory that if there are more homes than people that hypothetically housing should become very cheap. I also understand that families can live in homes long after they go through a foreclosure. I just think that these people will turn to renting.

I also believe that with all the baby boomers becoming older and having their children moving out they will look to scale back in the size of their homes. No need for a 4 or even 5 bedroom house with no children there anymore. 

I think if you could find a reliable person to manage the property, buying and renting would be a good way to go for all those cash only properties around the country. 
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