Guys, give me some guesses on the housing market

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Author: [Investments] Topic: Guys, give me some guesses on the housing market
I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 9/22/2011 11:12:15 PM

was 1.5 years ago the bottom? when will it turn from a buyers market to a sellers market ... what year? when will the housing market peak again ... what year?

i think 1.5 years ago was the bottom. i think it is time to stop buying in 2014/2015. i think the market peaks again in 2022.

thoughts are appreciated.

richnyc PM richnyc
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Posted: 9/23/2011 1:05:31 AM
now is time to buy ,but no mortgages out there.10 years seems right
I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 9/24/2011 5:46:59 PM

thanks for the input richnyc.

wall, koaj, be easy ... etc

depeche2 PM depeche2
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Posted: 9/24/2011 8:58:49 PM
It's probably not getting better any time soon.  15 years from peak to peak (2006 to 2021 or thereabouts).  Not sure we've really bottomed.  Still shaking out the weak hands via foreclosures and short sales, dragging everything down.
bucknuts PM bucknuts
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Posted: 9/24/2011 10:20:44 PM
Still 25% of folks underwater on loans...I don't think its over
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PSP101 PM PSP101
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Posted: 9/27/2011 12:16:16 AM
Housing market in Florida is all time low. Don't know bout any other play. I got two property the last year. Got them really cheap.
PSP101 PM PSP101
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Posted: 9/27/2011 12:18:13 AM
The best way to invest is buying and hold on to it rent them out.
I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 9/27/2011 1:37:36 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PSP101:

The best way to invest is buying and hold on to it rent them out.

easier said than done. i started with a 2 family, sold it. made money. bought a 3 fam and a 2 fam. sold the 3 fame, made money.

now i have cash and the 2 fam.

the next move is crucial.

i'm in the process of trying to make my 2 a legal 3 and then making it 3 condos.

that would about double my cash and i would be able to flip for real. i think charlotte is the place to do it.

but if i cant switch it to a 3 fam its back to the drawing board.

holding property is hard for the simple fact that banks are dumb. its possible, but you need to make miracles happen or start with serious money.

any thoughts or opinions are very welcome.

seanjohn007 PM seanjohn007
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Posted: 9/27/2011 5:14:49 AM
talking to my real estate teachers its still going down hill, probably another year or two before things start to come back up. theres still a ton of foreclosures out there that are just sitting, and many more that are on the verge of foreclosure. with that said if you have the cash to make an all cash offer its not a bad time to get an investment property or two. 

i was talking to a pilot in vegas on day who said when the market crashed he bought 4 foreclosed properties for 25-30k each and now hes renting them out for 1k a piece. wish i had the cash to take some of those opportunities. and shows that even in a terrible market thats going down, theres always opportunities to make money 
AussieCapper PM AussieCapper
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Posted: 9/27/2011 6:57:35 AM
I_need_a_detox your everywhere man haha
AussieCapper PM AussieCapper
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Posted: 9/27/2011 6:57:59 AM
on every forum 
I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 9/27/2011 1:05:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by AussieCapper:

I_need_a_detox your everywhere man haha

i like this place. i just got sober (again) so i really dont know what to do with myself.

i read articles and books on real estate and look around the country at current listings.

i have learned a lot from some of the guys around here.  

PSP101 PM PSP101
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Posted: 9/29/2011 11:45:04 PM

Base on my experiment. Most of my family member own couple rental properties each. We all rent them out to a tenants. House price could drop a littler more that all guessing. Sometime when the oppertunity come you have to jump on it. For example this is real, I told my parent to buy this house which is in our subdivision the value of the house is around $170k to $180k which got it for $135k cash when is was listed for $150k it was last year. Of course we have to fix it up a little roughly around 5k into the house. I rent it out for $1400 a month since 16 month ago.

$1,400 X 16month rent = $22,400
                                  

PSP101 PM PSP101
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Posted: 9/29/2011 11:46:13 PM
Even if the house is drop 5% more on value who care when you have cash flow coming in. People afrair that value might drop but the smart one jump in when the value is there.
PSP101 PM PSP101
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Posted: 9/29/2011 11:47:55 PM
Plus i'm a REALTOR, i didn't charge them first month rent to find a tenants or 10% each month for properties management, cause i got 3% commission when they purchase properties.
PSP101 PM PSP101
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Posted: 9/29/2011 11:57:44 PM
Family discount
I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 9/30/2011 7:07:54 PM
What the darn are you talking about bro? I've had a 2 family that I sold. Then I had a 3 family for a year, sold that a month ago. Now I have a 2 family that I live in and 75k. My plan at first was to aquire multi families, cash flow and sell them when the market peaked again in 2020-2024. BUT ... The banks are to hard to deal with. I'm in the process of trying to legally turn my two family into a 3 family. Thats harder than you'd think. If that gets done then I can sell each unit as a condo. Then I would have around 175k. If I get to that point Im pretty sure my next step would be to flip foreclosed houses in Charlotte. I think that is the number one up and coming city in the country and houses are cheap. 50k for a fixer upper.

The only problem is that each step takes so long to happen. Because of that I am going to RE school in Oct and I'll get my RE license.

Any help or advice is welcomed.
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LeRinkRat PM LeRinkRat
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Posted: 10/6/2011 1:51:03 AM
Las Vegas is as dead as Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal and will probably remain so for years. just don't see a recovery this decade in either the job OR housing market.
I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 10/7/2011 12:54:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

Las Vegas is as dead as Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal and will probably remain so for years. just don't see a recovery this decade in either the job OR housing market.

Good time to pick places up and rent them out if you can. just hard to get the banks with you. that 25% down on the second house is a real kick in the nuts.

I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 10/7/2011 12:56:46 PM

i wonder what koaj, wallstreet, be easy etc think about all of this.

i don't know why someone with cash wouldnt cashflow in the real estate market and sell when the market rises.

 

I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 10/7/2011 12:58:39 PM

i'm not smart at all and i've managed to do ok.

a person that can work the banking system the right way and had some real cash could do serious damage right now.

too much risk?

bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 10/13/2011 12:45:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by I_Need_A_Detox:

i'm not smart at all and i've managed to do ok.

a person that can work the banking system the right way and had some real cash could do serious damage right now.

too much risk?

 I agree completely. 

The USA went from a situation in 2003-2007 where there was "no money in cash", to the present "where cash is king". 

My family's business was building single family homes....I started in 2002 after college and went partners with my dad (he was  a builder/contractor for 25 years in the area ) building and selling homes in the northwest (montana).  We built 2-3 houses (mostly ourselves)  per year and made a living....the homes were always sold before finished and the credit was easy for anyone who paid thier bills.  Asset value swelled and the growth rate of home prices soared.  It was worth it to build a house, and the buyer had a product that served a purpose and was valuable.

Over a period of  18 months beginning in mid 2008 to early 2010, we saw the value of our real estate assets take a devastating hit, and more importantly CREDIT, in all forms, dried up.  No money was being put on the street to anyone.... to build, buy, or even carry  home inventories. It took 18 months for 8 years of work to go down the drain.

Basically, the banks shifted thier liquidities.  There was more money to be made on trading the subprime mortgage bundles back and forth between each other than there was in stimulating or even sustaining economic growth. 

The proof of that was the design and implementation of interest only variable rate loans (ARM) ......the bank could charge a higher rate for a fixed period of time, collect high cashflows from these interest rates in the short term, and when the show was about over ( when the home owner couldnt pay the juice anymore) bundle up 10,000 subprime mortgages and sell them off to mega banks as "securitized debt obligations".  The beauty of this was that the bundles could be highly valued  because of these inherently superior cashflows, and the larger financial instituions found them valuable.The bundles came in very handy in hiding the buyers own financial shortcomings....basically when a huge commercial lender had to limit exposure they would bundle and sell to get the bad debt off of the books....and the next mega bank would step in and buy, rebundle and flip.....etc. 

The mega banks (Bank of America, etc.) new damn good and well that the paper was trash, but they had the Feds to run to at the end of the day. The small business men (builders, contractors, realtor/ broker) did not have anyone to run to. Let me tell you, doors slammed, and they slammed FAST.

My point is this: Until credit loosens up, the real estate market will remain depressed.  Unfortunately, that is very unlikely for the foreseeable future.  The inflation monster is out there, lurking.  That is the final knockout punch for anyone involved in the housing market that has somehow held on and carried the financial burden.  When we see credit loosen, we will also see interest rates increase dramatically, and assets across the board will begin to be re-valued on a grand scale.

 I would say we are in the 8th round of  a 12 round title fight......right eye closed....mouse under left....cracked ribs from the vicious 7th round, broken right hand.  Losing on all cards (even Lederman's!).   But there is still a punchers chance of walking out a winner.

Good luck to everyone whom knows what I am talking about and continues to press on in a tough financial environment. 

Congratulations and bravo to all those whom had the foresight to rack profits and got out when the getting was good. 

bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 10/13/2011 12:56:33 AM

Accidently hit the quote button on your quote detox........I  agree with your statement on having serious cash and being able to kick some behind on buying houses and real estate now.

I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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Posted: 10/14/2011 8:18:13 AM
Thanks for the input big. GL.
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Rush51 PM Rush51
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Posted: 10/14/2011 8:40:44 PM
Anybody with lots of cash is way ahead of the game in this current economy.

Consider that most folks out there have a difficult time getting the credit they need for (home) purchases.


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