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Author: [Investments] Topic: Party Could Be Over - At a Minimum All Cash the Prudent Move
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#151
Posted: 11/1/2012 1:54:21 AM
this market is barely holding up... i wonder who is buying...

that being said... which countries not named india and s. korea are buying american stocks?

europe's germany has under 6% unemployment. wow
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#152
Posted: 11/2/2012 7:33:06 PM
Ok, got the bounce from that 1415ish zone it fiddled with for a week or so.  it would not break above the 50 DMA or that 1438 trend line I discussed before.  i got chopped around with stops being hit for minimal profits they didn't let me get too much.

longs need to develop something real quick after today and if they let 1403 go after 1415 then the move lower should pick up some legit steam. 
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#153
Posted: 11/7/2012 10:48:55 AM

Again would not break above declining 50DMA and would not break above failed 1438 trendline.  1415 did not hold now testing the 1403 area.  Might want to be careful before getting too cocky about kicking in a short right here and right now.  I covered off the second wave down off the open.  Could bounce off 1403 remember there are "outside forces" that have been supplying the magical buying power for a couple years now.

That said, this could get very interesting.  A break of 1403 adds further steam to a change in not just the short term direction but the intermediate term direction.  many, many stocks on the chosen list (AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, IBM, etc.) do not look pretty right now and have been under heavy distribution.  every mutual fund and hedge fund in the world is long AAPL and when it no longer works most of them will use every pop to get out.

For all you guys that don't think the charts do not matter, it may be prudent to consider that the entire planet already knows that Bernanke will print $40B/month and then $85B/month starting in January into perpetuity or until the economy improves.  We already know that.  where is the surprise to keep the junkies excited?  They already know they are getting free coke and heroin every month so what is there to get their heart rate elevated even more at this point? 

 

Even with QEinfinity the dollar has been under heavy accumulation the last few weeks and oil has been under a lot of pressure along with yet again the piece of dogshit EURUSD failing to break out anywhere beyond the lift it gets from central banks trying to delay its inevitiable collapse.  That's not an opinion that is a fact. 

 

let's see where they close the Spider today.  Volume is already running above average.  As usual don't be shocked if the cheerleading person in the media start singing more tunes about the tooth fairy and yet another magical bailout scam. 

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#154
Posted: 11/7/2012 11:05:34 AM
They broke 1400 but something tells me they will fight back for it later today..
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#155
Posted: 11/7/2012 11:33:47 AM

Yup I could see that.  that is why I covered short term positions it is too risky for my taste.  Might re-enter if it pops to 1403ish and can't get above that (could be today, tomorrow, or never). 

The financials have actually looked quite nice purely from the standpoint of the charts.  Energy has already started to roll over.  Tech already rolled over.  The financials today are dropping on big volume.  If they roll over what holds up the verall market?

In addition to a zillion other things I'll be watching things like XLF, GS, BAC, JPM. WFC. 

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#156
Posted: 11/7/2012 12:25:37 PM
Fear poked its head out today but so far it has subsided a little.

We arent even remotely in any serious fear territory..not even close.
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#157
Posted: 11/7/2012 5:04:41 PM

Well that was an ugly close.  Spider closed at 1394.53 cash and ES dumped as well late in the day.  Volume jumped up big time. 

I mentioned 1390 previously as the logical next level below 1403 and sure enough it literally touched it today and bounced and tried to get back above 1403 but could not do it.  So, 1390 and 1403 the new target zone to monitor along with dozens of other things. 

Barring a new bailout announcement tomorrow about how unicorns and santa claus are going to magically fix everything we should see a test of 1390 and that 200 DMA at 1380ish and 40 week MA at 1384ish are screaming out for some attention. 

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#158
Posted: 11/8/2012 11:41:47 AM

faded the opening fluff of hope and hype and no volume and caught it on the way down when it did not even test my 1403ish zone (those sons of girl are frontrunning me).  covered at 1390.  too risky for me after that could pop quickly and violently.

 

so, the 1390 was hit as described yesterday and now it's staring that 200 DMA right in the face.  200 DMA a very logical place to see a bounce.  if it settles and calms down I might have to go long from that area (short term only and very, very short leash applied). 

 

AAPL down again with volume picking up again.  hmmmm, not so easy for the cheerleaders is it when AAPL doesn't pop 10 bucks a day like clockwork.  it's the biggest market cap in the world so when it swings the other way . . . . . . . well you get the picture. 

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#159
Posted: 11/8/2012 11:46:41 AM
Yeah they reversed that phony open..but still the fear is not in the building yet..not even close.

Until fear picks up and people start thinking the market will not stop going down, I am not convinced this move is done or even serious.
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#160
Posted: 11/8/2012 12:04:38 PM

Looking beyond a couple days (but don't hold me to this since each day or even set of hourly charts can change this) I see the test of the 200 DMA as inevitable and I also see the EURUSD most likely heading to 1.25 further putting pressure on risk assets.  prolly a bounce from there maybe towards 1400-1403 and then the issue is 1360.  XLF dropping to test its 200 DMA would likely force things down to test 1360.  1360 is a key trendline that if violated with volume should lead to a move towards 1250-1266 in the intermediate term.  if this were to take place I would likely dump TZA (or anything similar to it) in that 1250-1266 zone and even look to go long from there with decent positions not just short term trades.  if that didn't hold 1150ish looks like another landing zone.

 

as usual, the biggest risk is intervention and manipulation and all of this can change very quickly.  interesting how the Bank of England threw in the towel on QE and pulled the plug on money printing due to lack of efficacy.  all of the risk assets outside of equities (oil, copper, gold, silver, etc.) have been telling you since September the state of demand and have been fading bernanke.  so, i'll just have to watch and see what everything is telling me. 

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#161
Posted: 11/8/2012 2:49:23 PM
I'll be riding the bond wave until it breaks over the beach!
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#162
Posted: 11/8/2012 4:17:26 PM

wow, no bounce at the 200 DMA.  yikes, maybe something big is about to happen and not big in a good way.  coulda stayed short from 1390 but gotta stick to the rules.  it was quite reasonable to expect at least something off that 200 DMA.

if this thing goes through 1360 on big volume there are a lot of people holding to that uptrend line at 1360 that will be forced to bail on this.

strong accumulation in TZA.  stealth accumulation in UUP. 

Bernanke and Draghi prolly be on the phone all night trying to come up with the next scam designed to make people believe "everything is fine". 

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#163
Posted: 11/8/2012 11:53:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mainmanmainman2:

this market is barely holding up... i wonder who is buying...

that being said... which countries not named india and s. korea are buying american stocks?

europe's germany has under 6% unemployment. wow


we have lift off!!!
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#164
Posted: 11/9/2012 8:02:51 AM

the grim reaper is starting to circle the house. hang on to all that TZA.

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#165
Posted: 11/9/2012 11:40:04 AM
AAPL down again with volume picking up again.  hmmmm, not so easy for the cheerleaders is it when AAPL doesn't pop 10 bucks a day like clockwork.  it's the biggest market cap in the world so when it swings the other way . . . . . . . well you get the picture.

i will feel so bad for all those saps when it's back sub 300 this time next year
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#166
Posted: 11/9/2012 5:35:00 PM

200 DMA is 1380.98 and the cash Spider closed at 1379.85.  nahhhh, forget about the charts they are not important, right?  days like today i am literally laughing it is so obvious the cheerleaders tried oh so hard to close this above that number for the week.  fairly "easy" little long trip to 1390 and then fade from there. 

so, here we are:  1403 (1415ish above that), 1390, and 1360 along with the 200 DMA.  be careful boys they can whipsaw this thing real quick and the cocaine from QEinfinity actually flows to the primary dealers this coming week.  i must say though these bounces have been very weak and unless the pom poms shoot this above 1432 and 1438 on high volume (prolly need a new bailout to get that done) then it appears as though the short term, intermediate term, and long term trends are aligned to the downside. 

If this 1360 is broken with conviction and closes at least two straight weeks below it on higher volume I'm prepared to update my "big picture" expectations:

1250-1266 - late 2012/early 2013

1390ish - early 2013

950ish - late 2013

1100ish - mid 2014

below 700 - late 2014/early 2015

basically, longs need something to keep this pig inflated very soon or else all of the trends will have shifted the other way with confirmation.  in the past (since 2008) this has been accomplished with intervention and manipulation.  the fundamentals are absolutely horrid we all should know and understand that.  what new scams will the central bankers come up with and will risk assets care and will they keep taking the bait?  we'll just have to see. 

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#167
Posted: 11/9/2012 5:40:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by be easy:

AAPL down again with volume picking up again.  hmmmm, not so easy for the cheerleaders is it when AAPL doesn't pop 10 bucks a day like clockwork.  it's the biggest market cap in the world so when it swings the other way . . . . . . . well you get the picture.

i will feel so bad for all those saps when it's back sub 300 this time next year

the more Kool Aid you drink the more you believe "it can only go up". 

rule #1 in investing (not trading):  throw your personal opinions, beliefs, hopes, and dreams out the window and simply focus on what the market is telling you to do

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#168
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:32:33 PM
haha
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#169
Posted: 11/14/2012 3:59:59 PM

BIG sell off today and probably more to come? DOW down 1100 last 3 weeks and the whole market up maybe 3% on the year!

So damn glad, it's not happening to my IRA. Go Obama & the Israeli's too!

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#170
Posted: 11/14/2012 4:10:24 PM
So far this is VERY orderly..

Zero fear out there...
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#171
Posted: 11/16/2012 5:15:58 PM

Obviously 1360 is a very, very key level.  Spider closed the week at 1359.87 maybe all that time studying the charts is worth it after all.  Beneath this is kind of no man's land.  to me it looks like Bernanke has the Plunge Protection Team well aware of this.  they came in and saved it today using the so called compromise reached by the politicians as bait but the Spider tried three times today to get above 1360 and stay above there and it did not do it.

The Daq and the RUT both look very weak on their weekly charts with moves well below the 200 DMA but the Spider is hanging in there better (the one targeted specifically by Bernanke along with EURUSD and the Dax).  Daq and RUT look destined for their lows hit in the summer (2726.68 and 729.75 respectively). 

Volume was ok considering the Holiday on Monday but it didn't come in as much as it certainly could have on the way down.

Bottom line:  1360, the 200 DMA above that at 1382.17, and below it I can see a quick move to 1320 but really don't have a solid grasp and of course any scam bailout announced can change everything in the short run.  I actually wouldn't rule out a crash from here.  The Daq and the RUT are the sexy indices that reflect risk appetite fairly well and they have made decisive moves on increasing amounts of volume below the 200 DMA.  Bulls need to generate something here very quickly but shorts shouldn't be smiling just yet.  Spider sits just below that 1360 and you need to see it move further below with more volume to get some confirmation that 1250-1266 is coming.   

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#172
Posted: 11/17/2012 8:47:14 AM
good stuff.
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#173
Posted: 11/17/2012 1:53:38 PM
 Couple other things that have caught my attention:

- the USD is a head scratcher.  i see no fundamental reason why EURUSD is anything north of 1.00 but yet they (central bankers) won't let it dip below 1.27 recently.  nonetheless, USD has recovered the drop into Bernanke's QEinfinity announcement and has built a pretty attractive looking base.  a move on volume above 81.5 in the cash USD index and it could break away.  just something to think about as a rising USD hurts corporate profits and puts downward pressure on commodities and commodity related stocks.

- oil due to the middle east garbage is being stubborn as are the financials.  if/when these two areas weaken further that could put more downward pressure on equities.  i'll keep my eyes on these to see if they are breaking down from their current "hanging on for dear life" positions. 

chart for TZA looks gorgeous.  but, can't get arrogant about it since it is 3X leverage to the downside and it can pull back sharply.  with these types I account for that and have more flexibility.  what I really like is the very clear accumulation telling me institutions have been building positions. 
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#174
Posted: 11/26/2012 3:49:53 AM

I enjoy checking in on this thread. Here is an article I thought was worthy.

http://news.investors.com/investing-etfs/111912-633973-fiscal-cliff-least-market-worries-harry-dent.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo&fromcampaign=1

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#175
Posted: 12/19/2012 12:14:55 AM
fiscal cliff.
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