Messages

Forum Index : Investments : Messages Page 6 of 8 «  4 5 6 7 8   »
Author: [Investments] Topic: Party Could Be Over - At a Minimum All Cash the Prudent Move
JEFFMARKETCAP
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
JEFFMARKETCAP
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 52399
Location: Illinois
#126
Posted: 9/26/2012 9:06:21 PM
We finally had a day when the dow lost 100 points yesterday.  I cannot believe we haven't seen a nice correction in this market this year.  The market keeps going up even though the economy is crap. Makes no sense.  atleast a 5-10% haircut here would be nice.
quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#127
Posted: 9/28/2012 10:05:07 AM

let's see if they close it below the 1440-1460 box this week.  if I were short with a short term trade (which I am not as I have nothing open short term right now) I wouldn't get too cocky just yet.  i am sure Bernanke is biting his nails right now.  the entire move from the Fed's hopes, prayers, and dreams is potentially unwinding here.  wouldn't be a shock to start to see the media person pumping more rumors in the very near future. 

so, anyways let's look to see a close below 1440 and maybe even a move towards 1426.  1426 and 1407 would be the stronger levels that would potentially confirm a legit correction and trend change (1407 incidientally where Draghi barfed up an old program but gave it a new cutesie name only this time the ECB's hands are tied in many ways).  ahh but who cares since spanish bonds don't appear to be buying the hype either. 

quote
wallstreetcappers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wallstreetcappers
Participation Meter
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 49904
Location: United States
#128
Posted: 9/28/2012 10:43:01 AM
Yahoo Finance already had a blurb about QE4..

What a joke.
quote
gambler315
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gambler315
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 7494
Location:
#129
Posted: 9/28/2012 11:16:08 AM
I love it.
quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#130
Posted: 9/28/2012 12:16:17 PM

a bullshit, garbage "stress test" conducted by Spanish officials concluded that the situation with spanish banks is "not that bad".  shocking that they would try to cover up the mess.  absolutely shocking (of course I am being sarcastic). 

Yahooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

the media person can run with that one for a few hours. 

quote
gambler315
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gambler315
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 7494
Location:
#131
Posted: 9/28/2012 1:50:54 PM
From what I've seen the auditing firm was hired by Spain and not the EU, ECB or whoever! So the auditors would say what they're paid to say by the employer. Correct??
quote
bigvern1013 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Orleans Hotel and Casino |
bigvern1013
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1573
Location: Montana
#132
Posted: 9/28/2012 2:03:50 PM
Yep.  Just like Arthur Anderson reported what Enron told them to.....don't bite the hand that feeds you!!!!
quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#133
Posted: 9/28/2012 2:22:10 PM

If anyone out there believes that Spanish banks are "not that bad" or in good health then I have a piece of property I would like to sell them.

It's this little patch of land but I swear if you dig down a few hundred feet there are 100 metric tonnes of gold there.  that's worth in the billions and you can have it for a measely couple of million.  I promise it's there . . . . . . .

 

g315 - if it was hired by the ECB hell it may have been even more full of fluff and bullshit.  the ECB is a joke.  but yeah, Spain basically asked someone's mommy if she felt her son was cute.  whad do you think she is gonna say?

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#134
Posted: 10/12/2012 11:41:13 AM

just covered all of my net shorts that were short term trades.  we got the break out of the 1440-1460 box, the break below 1455, and then that move down below 1440 to 1426ish. 

wouldn't be surprised to see a pop here from this 1425-1430 level - could be a decent pop actually.  if it breaks down and I "miss out" on more downside I don't give a garbage because with short term trades I feel you always, always, always should take profits.

anyways, might even consider a short term long here if I see what I like

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#135
Posted: 10/12/2012 3:39:19 PM

long at 1428.30.  modest size lower than my usual short term move.  willing to give it 72-96 hours but this little girl is on a very, very short leash.

 

charts say yes in terms of the most likely outcome given the current steup.

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#136
Posted: 10/12/2012 4:13:00 PM

weekly close 1428.59.  closed above the 50 DMA after dipping below and above the 1426 level it broke through when Draghi supposedly saved the world by announcing nothing new but at least he acted tough on camera. 

this plus a whole bunch of other technical mumbo jumbo suggest for the short term only it should bounce.  target is 1456ish.  i'll let it prove itself or cut it if it doesn't show what I want to see.

quote
wallstreetcappers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wallstreetcappers
Participation Meter
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 49904
Location: United States
#137
Posted: 10/12/2012 4:39:08 PM
Market looks mega tired..

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#138
Posted: 10/15/2012 1:01:27 PM

limit order sell set for 1435.50 or 1444 whichever hits first.  adjusting my target to 1444-1456ish but not convinced there is enough conviction to get there.  if I see more enthusiasm approaching 1444 i'll nix it and set it higher. 

setting the stop at 1435.50 based on the charts to guarantee a profit from this position.  i don't think it will breach that (in the short term) prior to testing 1444-1456 but I sure as hell don't completely trust it.  if it went below 1435.50 could go right back to that 50 DMA.  rule #1 in short term trading:  never, ever take a loss beyond your personal threshold (mine is 2.5%).  it's just too difficult to make up large losses.  rule #2:  always, always, always cash in profits because they will take it back from you.   

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#139
Posted: 10/15/2012 7:38:29 PM

hit the limit so modest gain at 1435.50.  must have been quite a few guys like me setting a limit order in that area to lock in gains so "the boys" massaged it down to take out all the stops.  cost me more of a profit but again I learned to avoid that line of thinking because that greed will kill you in this game.  i'll see how it reacts to 1444 in the morning which it should touch if the typical manipulation higher occurs in the pre-market absent any "news" that can legitimately move ES lower. 

 

most likely outcome short term:  test of the 1444-1456 area followed by new swing low to 1415-1426.  could be a play to short if it is running on fumes in that 1444-1456 range. 

then, i think a retest of 1474 is actually quite possible believe it or not.  if this happens short term and it does not break below 1415ish (since 1390 is a logical next level holding 1415 would imply short term relative strength) then that might be a legit opportunity to get long up to 1474.  1474ish is very stern long term resistance for the Spider.  it will be extremely important to see how it reacts there and if it moves above it will it be a headfake to catch all the perma-bulls going "all in" or will it truly break out? 

failure at 1474 and/or a headfake should at least create the conditions for a potential substantial decline that i have positioned for with my core portfolio.  gotta play the game along the way they will churn and burn this thing as long as they can.   

quote
mainmanmainman2 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mainmanmainman2
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 4309
Location: Antarctica
#140
Posted: 10/17/2012 6:00:21 PM
is everyone and their mammas employed?
quote
Pecador send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Pecador
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 1947
Location: Texas
#141
Posted: 10/19/2012 1:59:02 AM
I haven't read Ayn Rand. It's boring. I tried because a smart girl who  turned me on to better literature said it was worth the effort. It was boring.  I know a little about her (Rand that is) and I hear that some people totally buy into her long ago predictions and fantasies. People often form cults. CULTS!!!  The Ayn Rand "Atlas Shrugged" book was a made up novel from decades ago. Life can be difficult. Money is the blood of America and each citizen. Big business is bad! Yeh, we get it. 

Atlas,   If I asked you a question about investing would you or could you be positive and say America may live despite Ayn Rand??


GL,    Doc
quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#142
Posted: 10/20/2012 7:14:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pecador:

I haven't read Ayn Rand. It's boring. I tried because a smart girl who  turned me on to better literature said it was worth the effort. It was boring.  I know a little about her (Rand that is) and I hear that some people totally buy into her long ago predictions and fantasies. People often form cults. CULTS!!!  The Ayn Rand "Atlas Shrugged" book was a made up novel from decades ago. Life can be difficult. Money is the blood of America and each citizen. Big business is bad! Yeh, we get it. 

Atlas,   If I asked you a question about investing would you or could you be positive and say America may live despite Ayn Rand??


GL,    Doc


I hate politics and i won't make this thread political.

I have read the book and do feel there are some interesting points made.

I don't know why my login name at a website matters.  for the record when I joined Covers it was prior to the release of Chinese Democracy by G'n'R.  one of the songs rumored to be complete but not yet released is titled Atlas Shrugged.  i picked it because of that.  completely random.

No I am not "doom and gloom".  however, i live in the real world and do not have pom poms surgically attached to my arms.  The unwinding of these massive, enormous amounts of debt and leverage will define this century in my view.  why are there so many bailouts and forms of intervention if "everything is fine"?  Spanish sovereign bonds are used to backstop a few hundred TRILLION dollars worth of derivitaves trades.  I have yet to see an argument as to how these bonds are worth anything close to par value.  Spain is merely one example.  there are many more.

good luck to you. 
quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#143
Posted: 10/20/2012 7:24:14 AM
i had the upper end of the short term target at 1456ish.  it hit 1464ish so i was off a little.  i was long from 1444 to 1455 and change.  so i did not capture everything.  flipped to the other side with the break below 1455 and covered (generally I don't like open positions over a weekend).  it is going more or less how i projected.

weekly close basically right at the 50 DMA (but i am sure that is just a coincidence, right?).  for now, absent any propaganda released Monday morning to manipulate ES higher I am net neutral but looking for a test of 1426 and ultimately 1415.  the close below 1438 was important it broke a few trendlines that were important to people that know what they are doing but not necessarily important to "market experts" that appear on financial comedy television networks.

still open to a strong bounce off of 1415 but i am less certain about this due to the strong pickup in volume the last two sessions moving to the downside.  we'll just have to watch closely and see what happens.  this last move up to 1464 off the 1425/1426 area and off the 50 DMA may have "been the move" but i don't know yet.

fundamentals are terrible that is obvious we all know that.  remember it is all a game where they (central bankers, politicians, media) try to convince you that "everything is fine".  intervention is their weapon.  the charts will tell us how effective that is and where things are most likely heading. 
quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#144
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:32:02 AM

Obviously gonna open down this morning.  Got the test yesterday at 1425/1426 and then the ramp job based on rumors of more QE and a coordinated effort to ramp AAPL (took a little itty bitty trip on the long side). 

so, as stated before, analyzing a test of 1415/1416 and now an overall reaction to any bounce from within the 1400-1426 zone.  if no support found in there it could get ugly pretty quickly.  if it finds some in the 1415/1416 area it could bounce quickly and sharply.  more rumors anyone????  wouldn't shock me to see a 1415/1416 move to 1426 and a move maybe to that 1438 trendline at some point in the short term (prolly cook up some rumors to help that happen). 

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#145
Posted: 10/23/2012 9:47:24 AM

For all you fundamental guys:  you notice anything about corporate earnings?  Notice how the so called "strong earnings" all seem to come from the financial sector?  Notice how these "earnings that beat estimates" in the financial sector generally do so because of manipulation of loan loss reserves and trading revenue during a quarter where the Fed jacked up risk assets? 

So, if you believe the financials are in such great shape then you probably also believe "everything is fine" in Europe and there is no debt/leverage problem to be concerned about. 

 

 

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10780
Location: Massachusetts
#146
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:16:18 PM

Yesterday and today so far are all about that 1415/1416 level.  There is a battle underway here.  All hands on deck by Bernanke's plunge protection team they know 1390 is a logical next place and then a potential cascade down if that doesn't hold.  Upside from here prolly stops at 1438ish short term if you are a short term trader.

Neutral for me it's too risky prior to seeing confirmation one way or another.  I'll jump aboard either way if I see what I am looking for. 

Times like this in the past have seen rumors of new magical bailouts, money printing, and other forms of treats from the tooth fairy surface in an attempt to suck people in.  Just sayin' . . . . . .

quote
wallstreetcappers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wallstreetcappers
Participation Meter
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 49904
Location: United States
#147
Posted: 10/24/2012 5:49:02 PM
Earnings have been bad for sure..

Interesting how the markets went south after the FED said nothing..

I cannot believe the market can take a positive from the FED saying they are going to keep rates at zero for another three years. How is that positive for the current and future state of the economy?
quote
Rush51 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Rush51
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 3980
Location: California
#148
Posted: 10/24/2012 10:46:57 PM
If Romney somehow finds his way to victory... Bernanke is gone and I wouldn't be surprised to find a new "hawkish" Fed.  ZIRP is benefiting few at this point....and does not address  what ails this country. 


quote
Rush51 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Rush51
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 3980
Location: California
#149
Posted: 10/24/2012 10:48:55 PM
I don't know if any of you caught it, but Bernanke and his Fed Team came to the conclusion a few weeks ago that they haven't done enough to stem the difficulties since the Financial Crisis.   Haven't done enough ???    Are you kidding me Helicopter Ben ???
quote
JEFFMARKETCAP
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
JEFFMARKETCAP
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 52399
Location: Illinois
#150
Posted: 10/25/2012 8:19:13 PM
I have some TZA November calls.  and lots of them.  I think the market is tired.  Fiscal cliff coming.  No good news.  Bad earnings.  Seems like the when the market is up the first hour, the rally fizzles.  Signs of a tired market.  I hope
quote
Forum Index : Investments : Messages Page 6 of 8 «  4 5 6 7 8   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.