NRL Finals Plays (Week Three)...

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Author: [Rugby] Topic: NRL Finals Plays (Week Three)...
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 12:36:56 AM
58-48-0 (+27.08)

Split Week 2 of the Finals. Lost Cowboys, won Bunnies. Some great games this weekend.

Favorites 5-1 SU (5-1 ATS) in the finals with the sole dog winner being the 'favorite' anyway when Canterbury beat Manly in Week 1.

Since 2000, the home team is 51-23 SU in the finals (71%).


emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 12:41:11 AM

"Of the 22 matches played between these sides it stands at 12-10 in the Storm's favour.

It is five wins each from the last 10 matches between these sides while the Storm have won three of the past four in Melbourne.

The last of these was the round-one 18-6 win for the Storm at the beginning of 2011. The last two matches have been at Brookvale and the honours were split.

Melbourne got revenge for losing 2011's "Battle of Brookvale" with a four point win in round 15 this year.

Both sides rarely lose if they are in front at half time, so expect both to come out hard in the first 40 minutes.

All seven of the games the Storm have lost this year came during and after the State of Origin period - highlighting the importance of their stars Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk.

During this period their tackle breaks, points scored and metres conceded plummeted to the bottom three in the rankings. However, overall they are usually in the top three for two of these statistics.

Melbourne's worst loss by a mile was by 28 points to the Raiders at home. Neither Smith nor Slater were present for that game and the Raiders smashed the Storm with quick ball movement to the edges.

If Melbourne have a deficiency it is that their forward pack isn't what it once was. Jason Ryles and Jesse Bromwich only average in the low 90's and Bryan Norrie in the 70's for metres gained.

However, their error rate is very low, as are their missed tackles. They are also getting back to their best footy. In the Storm's last four home games they've averaged 28.5 points for and only 11.5 against.

Manly have an Achilles heel: they don't defend kicks well at all - as evidenced by Kris Keating's match winner for the Bulldogs in week one of the finals. In their run in to the finals their defence is actually ranked number one but their attack has slipped to 11th.

Somehow Manly won last week in spite of making 150 metres less than the Cowboys. Like the Storm's front row, Jason King, George Rose and Brent Kite don't make great metres. None make more than 90 per match. In their last four away games they are averaging 16 points scored and 11 points conceded..."

Oil-Beef-Hooked PM Oil-Beef-Hooked
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Posted: 9/21/2012 1:31:53 AM
good info thanks emkee.. iv been lean'n manly su all week... but still.. this matchup is utterly a complete coin toss - no easy money here imo.
Luckylunchbox PM Luckylunchbox
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Posted: 9/21/2012 1:57:24 AM
Nice write up
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 3:31:48 AM
Since 1998, Manly have not won a final away from ANZ Stadium, Allianz Stadium and Brookvale; losing five from five at finals away from these venues...
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 4:29:12 AM
Manly are 2-7 in Melbourne but those 2 wins were under Archer, who is the ref tonight. Overall the Sea Eagles are 3-2 against the Storm with Archer reffing.

Under Cecchin the other ref, Melbourne are 4-0 this season whereas Manly are 0-1.

Home teams are undefeated thus far in the Finals (6-0 SU).
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Posted: 9/21/2012 4:35:08 AM
Storm changes - Todd Lowrie to start with Ryan Hinchcliffe back to the bench for Melbourne. Jason Ryles is out, he is replaced by Kevin Proctor...
snake2710 PM snake2710
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Posted: 9/21/2012 4:54:17 AM
BOL on what ever your play is going to be bud
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 5:19:49 AM
Thanks mate.



Manly Sea Eagles at Melbourne Storm

The play...

Sea Eagles +3.5 (3 units)

friggin tough one but just like the overall makeup of Manly and these aren't your father's Storm. Seagles have more strike up front in the engine room whereas the Storm are relatively weak in that department. Yeah, they got over a strong pack in Souths but I guarantee Manly won't garbage themselves like the Bunnies did...


Aussie Battler PM Aussie Battler
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Posted: 9/21/2012 5:24:35 AM
Absolutely
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 5:36:12 AM
Battler...



It's been proven this year you can win without a 1st class 'spine' (1, 6, 7) with the Doggies. Forwards are where it's at now in the NRL...
Aussie Battler PM Aussie Battler
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Posted: 9/21/2012 5:46:35 AM
Manly spine is ok
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 5:55:05 AM
Manly have the 2nd best spine in the comp. Storm the 1st but Melbourne has the worst pack remaining of the 4 final teams...
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 7:42:23 AM
Overcooked that one.

All the numbers pointed to Melbourne yet ignored them and went with Manly. Poor effort there...




emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/21/2012 8:12:30 PM
Big play brewing tonight...
Luckylunchbox PM Luckylunchbox
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Posted: 9/21/2012 9:04:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by emkee:

Big play brewing tonight...

Can it be anything but dogs? Seems the square play but also the only play
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/22/2012 3:14:23 AM
Bunnies 9-26-1 SU in games reffed by Shane Hayne, Dogs on the other hand are 19-14-1 SU.

Dude was the ref when Souths got whipped on by Melbourne in Week 1 of the Finals...


emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/22/2012 4:58:37 AM
Both teams pretty much treading on new ground tonight. 70k crowd, final hurdle before getting a GF berth, relatively inexperienced halves. Dogs dominated the regular season but a game like this is on a whole other level, no one giving the Bunnies much of a chance - in fact from looking around, they are the least favored underdog of all the Finals matches played in 2012. Both teams at their 'home' venue, Souths had a poor record versus top sides but were stellar at Homebush - only going down to the Dogs by 5 in Round 13. Very much leaning the points with the Rabbits fairly big...
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 9/22/2012 5:13:08 AM
adding...

South Sydney Rabbitohs at Canterbury Bulldogs


The play...

Rabbitohs +5.5 $2.15 (4 to win 4.45)

darn Shane Hayne. Bunnies have the talent to win tonight if not keep it close. Bye may come into play here also given the makeup of the Dogs...


snake2710 PM snake2710
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Posted: 9/22/2012 5:15:10 AM
Otherside for me tonight bud
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