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Author: [Rugby] Topic: Super Fifteen: R1
Oil-Beef-Hooked send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/20/2012 3:38:01 AM
Just spent the best part of an hour on my introduction and write-up only to whack one feck'n key on my laptop to erase it all. Frustration doesn't even come close to describing my rage so bugger it, here's my first play of the season and im off for a durry...

*FYI, I bet units. 1U = $100. My book is TAB. I mostly bet multis (parlays).

Starting off hesitant - leave the upsets for the paddock and not the pocket. My team is the Blues but laying off em first week.. i see better value backing the Saders frankly. Plus the Chiefs will be dangerous this year - back line/coach, but will be entertaining to see if Highlanders can repeat their opening form from last year.

Round 1: 2U
Stormers (1.28) with Waratahs (1.60) = 2.00

GL t y'all. Kia Waimarie. and... blerh
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#2
Posted: 2/20/2012 5:07:50 AM
Hi, why not a Chiefs&Stormers double? Should be much safer. Waratahs-Reds is hard to predict, both teams have injury problems.
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#3
Posted: 2/20/2012 1:38:25 PM
Stormers as the bettor's champion this year. 
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#4
Posted: 2/20/2012 9:45:37 PM

Cheifs usually have a slow start finding team cohesion and thier forward pack aint anything special. Highlanders should cover if they can overcome their issue with the change to the new breakdown rules.. I can see that match being quite tight and a tough pick.

I notice alot of people talking up the reds - usually a sign of overhype. I have some homework to do on the aussie teams and their injury concerns (thats why i post this site - for some educated recomendations!) but still like the waratahs pre-season form.

I havnt locked my bet, am waiting for the lines to come out tomorrow. But may stick to my play.

Should be a good week to back the underdog point starts and the 12 and unders.. back tomorrow after i do more homework!!

Thanks all.

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snake2710
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#5
Posted: 2/20/2012 9:47:42 PM

Looks like a good start for me, but would also be looking to add the Chiefs as they should be able to do damage with the backs and out score them, waiting for totals and that should be a game to look at the over with.

GOOD TO SEE SOMEBODY NEW

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#6
Posted: 2/23/2012 6:12:30 AM

Okay... final sleep before the big day! Last day of work in NZ before i piss off to Aussie for a bit.. and some quality rugga to add to a busy weekend. Smashed out a 0.5U 1/25 multi (NBA/NHL) to make me sum change today (thanks covers).

Feedback is to back the dogs or lay off (no surprises there). I like the highlanders +7.5 (1U), and also the waratahs 12 under - (1U gut play). 0.5U hedge stormersH2H/reds 12under. Like the idea of high scoring chiefs/highlanders match too - battle of the backs v forwards = try time! 

Also looking to add a new book (for rugby/rugby league) while in Auz. Thinking Bet365.. any recommendations/discouragement would be most appreciated.

Good to see another KIWI out there! 

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#7
Posted: 2/23/2012 6:20:48 AM

heres a dirty 1U teaser for the weekend.. 

Blues win @ half time

Chief/High time of 1st try - before

Wara/Reds time of 1st try - before

Ireland/Italy race to 10 points - ireland

Stormers half/full time double

1U return = 1160

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#8
Posted: 2/23/2012 5:53:53 PM
Bet365 is awesome! Better than the shitty TAB here in NZ

Will be making a deposit soon for the rugby season coming up!

BOL! That's an intense multi.

Also, I'm not playing the game tonight but what are peoples thoughts on it? Seems like a pretty close matchup to me but the bookies seem to really like the Blues...
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#9
Posted: 2/23/2012 9:35:36 PM
Friday matches are all really close.  Who knows.
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#10
Posted: 2/23/2012 9:37:12 PM

Hey phatty, word on the street is crusaders to win (even solid blues fans agree). Im staying away from that game - just hoping blues will take the first half. Best to lay off the first week i rekon so not putting down too much. Bookies probly just like the home advantage + no mccaw or carter.

Like the sound of bet365 - got alot more betting options and better lines for US sport than TAB too.

Cheers.

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#11
Posted: 2/23/2012 9:44:24 PM
Headoverheart... you may be on to a hedge there - 12 and under each way?
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#12
Posted: 2/23/2012 10:10:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Oil-Beef-Hooked:

Headoverheart... you may be on to a hedge there - 12 and under each way?


12 and under in probably most games this weekend.  I can't see but one getting out of hand.

My BEST BET for the weekend is the final tilt of the round.  Love the Lions -4.5.  I don;t think the books have caught on yet to how much better this Lions team is compared to year's past.

Lions -4.5. 
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#13
Posted: 2/23/2012 10:38:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



12 and under in probably most games this weekend.  I can't see but one getting out of hand.

My BEST BET for the weekend is the final tilt of the round.  Love the Lions -4.5.  I don;t think the books have caught on yet to how much better this Lions team is compared to year's past.

Lions -4.5. 

Heres a little reinforcement on your pick:

https://www.tab.co.nz/information/#news/2012-02-24/nisbo-talks-super-rugby

On it for 1U.

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#14
Posted: 2/23/2012 11:12:50 PM
Yea and Bet365 is also in NZD wooo!

Going to lay off the 1st round but keep an eye on things. There are some nice options for the 1st round NRL though!
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#15
Posted: 2/23/2012 11:20:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phatmaori:

Yea and Bet365 is also in NZD wooo!

Going to lay off the 1st round but keep an eye on things. There are some nice options for the 1st round NRL though!

Love your work mate

Bet your happy turned you onto BET365

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#16
Posted: 2/24/2012 1:06:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



12 and under in probably most games this weekend.  I can't see but one getting out of hand.

My BEST BET for the weekend is the final tilt of the round.  Love the Lions -4.5.  I don;t think the books have caught on yet to how much better this Lions team is compared to year's past.

Lions -4.5. 



Pinnacle has Lions -3 (-106 or 1.943)
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#17
Posted: 2/24/2012 7:15:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by morbe290:




Pinnacle has Lions -3 (-106 or 1.943)

 

Everywhere I've looked is the same mate. Huge difference between needing a try to cover opposed to a penalty win to push.

Though I think Lions win by 9+.

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#18
Posted: 2/24/2012 2:17:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



12 and under in probably most games this weekend.  I can't see but one getting out of hand.

My BEST BET for the weekend is the final tilt of the round.  Love the Lions -4.5.  I don;t think the books have caught on yet to how much better this Lions team is compared to year's past.

Lions -4.5. 


First three matches all decided by five point or less. 
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#19
Posted: 2/24/2012 2:18:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Oil-Beef-Hooked:

Heres a little reinforcement on your pick:

https://www.tab.co.nz/information/#news/2012-02-24/nisbo-talks-super-rugby

On it for 1U.



Wow.  Didn't see that.  Better hurry up and snatch it before everyone realizes it's a bad line.
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#20
Posted: 2/24/2012 2:20:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by morbe290:




Pinnacle has Lions -3 (-106 or 1.943)


Yep, down to -3.5 now at most places.  Hahaha.....public must be crushing the Cheetahs.

Bloodbath coming.

Lions cover all those lines.  Easily the best bet of the week. 
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#21
Posted: 2/24/2012 4:39:19 PM
How bout them crusaders eh? being brought up on mutton and hard yakka makes those southerners near on invincible! Still, first game was intense and tough for anyone to pick. Very pissed at the final play at halftime - try disallowed for shepherding! wtf blues!
 
Made 10 measly bux with my 12under hedge after accounting for my 'ambitious' multi but hey, thats gambling people. Will be tailing those of you on the Lions -4.5  for 1U, also highlanders +7.5 for 1U. Have a big 12under multi on saders, cheifs, waratahs + lions-4.5 for 27U. fingers crossed eh! 

No more bets this weekend! and no tilting if i loose em!! Hoping i can source sum good NRL tips next week and rinse out some safe(ish) H2H multis and a few delicious winning team margin multis! Maybe a cheeky sharks half time /  tigers full time bet...?

BOL on your picks all. 

 
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#22
Posted: 2/24/2012 5:01:29 PM
Haha those half full bets are dodgy especially when you pick 1 team to win each half.

Have to say that Sharks game would be a good one to lay off for the 1st round until you see how they adapt with their new drunk half.

I do really like Cowboys to beat Titans as Titans suck the biggest cock. Also like Knights over Dragqueens and the mighty Warriors over Manly people!

Will wait for the team lists before committing to any of these though.

BOL with your multi! Looks pretty good to me 
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#23
Posted: 2/24/2012 6:48:23 PM

Chiefs 12under looks like great value tonight and the Tahs at pick over reds looks to good to pass up. No quad is massive in that team.

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#24
Posted: 2/25/2012 12:54:25 AM
Chiefs/Highlanders gonna be juicy.
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#25
Posted: 2/25/2012 1:13:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Chiefs/Highlanders gonna be juicy.
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