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Author: [Rugby] Topic: HoH's Annual RBS 6Nations Thread!!!
HeadOverHeart
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#1
Posted: 2/3/2012 7:52:15 PM
Well, it's my favorite time of year again!!!

HELL YEAH!!!!  

Better than butter.  Better than bread.  Better than eating and running and winding up dead!!! 

IT'S THE SIX NATIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
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#2
Posted: 2/3/2012 8:08:23 PM
Ok, let's start with this:

Every year, I lose my head in excitement for this tournament.  I get all fired up and make some great bets, come out ahead, but lose the big one.  And every year, I look back and realize that that I am saying to myself, "Damn, that was obvious!!!!!!!!  You dumbass!!!  What didn't you back that!!!!!!!!!!!  ARGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!"

Well, this year, I decided to backtrack.  And pretend I was out of it for two months and woke up in April.  And checked the news of the 2012 6Nations.

What would I see?

What would be the OBVIOUS?


France to Win the RBS 6Nations +162.

A new coach, a new attitude, a righting of the ship from the rot named Livremont.  Home fixtures against the Irish and English and a possible Slam showdown versus the Welsh have me believing and saying, "Duh, this is friggin' obvious."

FRANCE +162 BIG.




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#3
Posted: 2/3/2012 8:12:30 PM
As for this weekend's matches, I don't have a lot of time to type a write-up, but I have thought quite a bit about each one.  So my obsession goes.

-------------------------------------

I am taking Scotland ML at $2.25 to get the wood on England.  You can have the points.  The wrong team is favored here.  England is fielding a n00b XV and haven't won in Edinburgh since 2004.  Scotland have almost double the number of caps this English side is fielding and Robinson smells blood.  The cohesion and awesomely shyte weather the Scots have conjured up fro Saturday will do the English in.

Up the middle, back, up the middle, back, up the zzzzzzzzzzzz.....whoa, did I fall asleep?  Yeah, you did.  And Scotland won by the way.

Skip the points.  Take the ML.

Scotland to Win @ $2.25.
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#4
Posted: 2/3/2012 8:16:34 PM
I am skipping the Ireland v. Wales match-up.  My gut is telling me the 5.5 on offer for the Welsh is overly generous and needs to be backed, especially with the mojo of the Irish (O'Driscoll) out and now Earles gone due to personal tragedy.

The Welsh will have circled this fixture on their calendars long in advance and will be coming into Dublin fresh and fired up, looking to make amends for their World Cup foul-up.  I think the Irish, who are always tough at home, will have their backs up against the wall here.  If the Irish cannot establish their front foot especially, they are in for a very long afternoon.

That said, a lot is yet to be determined about both of these sides, and therefore, I am laying off this match.  Yet, if you must have a go, my opinion is Wales +5.5 is the play.

Good luck.
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#5
Posted: 2/3/2012 8:37:14 PM
France vs. Italy is not a contest.  Everybody and their mother and their mother's son knows the French will NOT lose this match.  Yes, yes, I know, the French fucked up in Rome the last time out, but that is all the more reason why they will not tomorrow.

The French are my backing to wipe out all they come into contact with heading into the Welsh game in Round Five.  And then maybe even the Welsh for the Slam.

New coach, new attitude, the best talent in the Northern Hemisphere......damaging.

The Italians, on the other hand, are getting used to a new go-around with their new caretaker.  Their line-up features no new surprises and the trip up to Paris will not do them any favors.  Throughout the years, all the times I have wagered on a Six Nations game featuring the Italians, I have backed the Italians at the line.

Not this time.

Something to prove.  A missed World Cup.  A coach throwing down a spear.

A rabid home crowd which will not see a deficit.

The French run out to 20+ winners on the day.

France -19.5. @ $1.90.

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#6
Posted: 2/3/2012 11:09:59 PM
Good stuff HoH

Got to head out for a little but will chip in later
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#7
Posted: 2/3/2012 11:10:44 PM
Charlie Hodgson at 10 means it will be a revolving door for the Scot loose forwards
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#8
Posted: 2/4/2012 2:56:37 AM
Can;t see anything but a Scottish victory.  And with the weather what it is it supposed to be.....
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#9
Posted: 2/4/2012 3:01:33 AM
Just went even bigger on France to Win at @2,62. 
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#10
Posted: 2/4/2012 3:01:59 AM
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#11
Posted: 2/4/2012 6:31:36 AM
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#12
Posted: 2/4/2012 9:20:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Ok, let's start with this:

Every year, I lose my head in excitement for this tournament.  I get all fired up and make some great bets, come out ahead, but lose the big one.  And every year, I look back and realize that that I am saying to myself, "Damn, that was obvious!!!!!!!!  You dumbass!!!  What didn't you back that!!!!!!!!!!!  ARGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!"

Well, this year, I decided to backtrack.  And pretend I was out of it for two months and woke up in April.  And checked the news of the 2012 6Nations.

What would I see?

What would be the OBVIOUS?


France to Win the RBS 6Nations +162.

A new coach, a new attitude, a righting of the ship from the rot named Livremont.  Home fixtures against the Irish and English and a possible Slam showdown versus the Welsh have me believing and saying, "Duh, this is friggin' obvious."

FRANCE +162 BIG.






Have a look at them winning the Grand Slam as well
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#13
Posted: 2/5/2012 1:07:30 AM
ireland over wales?
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#14
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:21:38 PM
Well, where do I start?  How about my France to Win the 6Nations wager looks GREAT.  Hahaha....

As for the three matches, what a weekend.

Firstly, the match I said nicely on, Wales +5.5, was the one of the three that I didn't make a play. 

Secondly, the French would have covered the -19.5 had they NOT MISSED A 72nd MINUTE CONVERSION!!!!  ARGH!!!!  They win by 18. 

And don't get me started on Scotland.  Clancy needs to be investigated.  He was ROTTEN all match long, especially in the 2nd Half.  Anyone who watched that match, tell me, was that not some of the worst refereeing you have ever seen in an international test match?  Every penalty to Scotland was about as useful as a fart in an iron lung.  But every penalty to England was when Scotland was either threatening, running well, within 10 metres of the English tryline, or in a spot where England could attempt a penalty kick for three.  BOLLOCKS!!!!!!!!!

No consistency at the breakdown.  England handled the ball in the ruck off their feet THREE TIMES in the 1st Half before I STOPPED COUNTING.  Not one was whistled.  How many times were they offside at the ruck, off their feet, or not releasing?  10+ not whistled.  One instance, in the middle of the 2nd Half, two Scottish players were ripping at the ball which England was clearly smothering and not releasing, as he was the sole player there.  NO WHISTLE.....then, about 45 seconds later, the same situation, but reversed....and I told my mates at the pub, here comes a whistle in THREE, TWO, O...PHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEW.  Penalty to England.  Clancy ran in there like a bat outta hell, bent over, and blew that whistle without blinking.

His IRB review must have been atrocious.  I wonder who he was backing yesterday?

And I NEVER girl about the ref.  Only time before was when that person Walsh was doing the Pumas/Welsh game and Wales, up 4, had THREE STRAIGHT INFRACTIONS at the tryline as the Pumas were on defense and NO PENALTY TRY.  It later comes out after the match that Walsh's WIFE AND IN-LAWS ARE WELSH and he would have been afraid to confront them if he would have whistled Wales on a penalty try to do them in.


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#15
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:24:01 PM
Look at this.  I have never seen such a lopsided result from the UNDERDOG in an international test match:

Scotland England
0 Tries 1
0 from 0 Conversion goals 1 from 1
2 from 2 Penalty goals 2 from 4
100.0% Kick at goal success 60.0%
0 Dropped goals 0
Kick/pass/run
30 Kicks from hand 31
204 Passes 56
141 Runs 52
450 Metres run with ball 191
Attacking
68% Possession 32%
72% Territory 28%
7 Clean breaks 0
14 Defenders beaten 0
8 Offloads 2
120 from 127 (94.5%) Rucks won 50 from 55 (90.9%)
3 from 3 (100.0%) Mauls won 1 from 3 (33.3%)
16 Turnovers conceded 14
Defensive
64/0 Tackles made/missed 153/14
100.0% Tackling success rate 91.6%
Set pieces
8 won, 2 lost (80.0%) Scrums on own feed 6 won, 0 lost (100.0%)
15 won, 1 lost (93.8%) Lineouts on own throw 9 won, 2 lost (81.8%)
Discipline
11 Penalties conceded 10
0/0 Yellow/red cards 0/0

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#16
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:28:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by davopnz:

ireland over wales?


Sorry, I wasn't up in time to answer your post.  It was a no-play for me but I mentioned above that if you wanted to play it, Wales +5.5 was the definite call (for the reasons mentioned).
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#17
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:30:02 PM
France moved into $2.25 (+125) for the Tournament.  9 or 10 point favorites against Ireland.

This might set up one hell of a match in Cardiff Round 5.  I might be looking to hedge here with a Welsh Grand Slam wager.
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#18
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:33:07 PM
Wales at $2.25 for the Triple Crown!!!  WOWOWOWOWOW!!!  This is a no-brainer!  No way in hell England or Scotland come close here.

$3.75 for the Slam.

So glad the Wales/France match was in Round One.  Allows for beautiful hedging opportunities.

Any advice here folks?
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#19
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:33:59 PM
France moved into $4.33 for the slam.  Wow.  Wales favored!  But France still odds-on favorite for the Tournament Win.

HUH?

 
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#20
Posted: 2/6/2012 3:28:28 PM
Steve Walsh refereeing the England v. Wales match in a few weeks.  Can someone PLEASE TELL ME WHY that a-hole reject is even allowed to referee either of those two teams?  He notoriously HATES the English, especially after the 2003 incident, and he will no doubt be hard up to forget his past with them considering the type of character he is.

Why, of all the referees, him?

Doesn't make any sense.

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#21
Posted: 2/8/2012 7:41:50 PM
Took Wales to Win the Triple Crown large last night.  What a great year for the Six Nations with the perfect fixtures and set-up.

Wales beating Ireland just sets up a great hedging/further money-making opportunity.

If Wales is good enough to challenge France for the outright Win, then they will beat Scotland and England.  $$$$$$$$$$$

If Wales stumbles against either or both, then France gets the paved highway to the trophy.  $$$$$$$$$$$$

How wonderful! 
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#22
Posted: 2/8/2012 7:43:22 PM
Early leans for this weekend:

Italy +points
Ireland +points
Wales -points.



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#23
Posted: 2/11/2012 1:31:08 AM
Let;s get on it.....
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#24
Posted: 2/11/2012 1:47:31 AM
Italy @ England

---

This one is pretty straight-forward, IMO.  England is rubbish this year as they blood in a ton of faces and have called up characters that should have been included in MoJo's sides for the past few years, like Strettle.  They were the luckiest sons of mothers to have escaped from Edinburgh with a win.  Scotland, with 72% advantage in field and holding the ball for a WHOPPING 31 minutes of 40 in the 2nd Half, should have scalded the Roses.

How many times did you see Scottish wingers jumping up and down, waving their arms, on the edges of the pitch, unmarked, screaming for wide ball?

England was clueless in defence transition.  Their backline is full of burners, ex-sevens players, and blokes who look like they've watched too much Super League.  They are clearly not defence-minded and I couldn't help but think multiple times how a Welsh or French side would have made them look silly, practically being able to run in tries backwards.

The Italians, on the other hand, are getting better and better and better and....yeah, you get the idea.

Way more experienced on the day Saturday, they will run out with adrenaline in their saliva knowing this will be their best chance to beat the English in decades.  Unlike the Scots, who could never get past the second phase in their backline play (PAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!), the Italians have actually begun to show a mild form of flair in their backs.

That's good enough to keep England in their heels.  And with nobody, and I mean nobody, assuming England will win the up-front battle, we're in for a close one here folks.

Italy +8.5 @ $1.90


Word of caution, Italy is my anti-Georgia.  While I have never lost a wager on the Georgian rugby team, EVER, stretching a span of over five years, I have oppositely never won a bet on an Italian rugby match....ever.  Betting on them or against them, I have never won.

If you are not a believer in superstition or streaks, Italy is the play.
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#25
Posted: 2/11/2012 1:53:40 AM
Ireland @ France

---

I am skipping this match-up.  With the temperatures expected to be equal to those on the planet Neptune and a lot of unanswered questions remaining for both of these sides, I can't see value anywhere here.

For those wanting to bite on this one, lean is Ireland +10.5.


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