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Author: [Rugby] Topic: ITM Cup Week 11
snake2710
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#1
Posted: 8/18/2011 12:49:24 AM

ITM Cup YTD 46-32 +41.00 units

Well just the one game tonight and its a game that should be won with ease by wellington imo.

Pick:

Wellington -5.5 5 units @ $1.90

Well this is a strong lean for me. Wellington are the better team imo for this match up and as underandover said Southland do struggle to get up for games where the Shield is not on the line. I feel they will be fatigued after the match with habour and perhaps not have their full consentration on the game. Yes wellington have been one of the poorer teams this itm cup season but at home they play well and feel they give the stags a touch up tonight. Also a possible look ahead spot as over the next 2 rounds they have back to back shield games.

Wellington/Southland under 46.5 5 units @ $1.90

Well poor weather is the main reason here. Wellington has had horrible weather this week and meant to be showers tonight. Both teams have had trouble scoring a lot of points and the stags do have good D. Wellington will be looking to win but whether they can score a lot is different question.

BOL all

 

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#2
Posted: 8/18/2011 12:55:54 AM

Wish TAB had totals

Ah well, I'm on the otherside of you! Let's see what happens!

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snake2710
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#3
Posted: 8/18/2011 12:58:07 AM

you will be throwing money away tonight on Southland imo. Me and underandover had talk bout this and had same view on the game. Southland dont show up tonight as they are not thinking bout this game at all.

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#4
Posted: 8/18/2011 1:07:43 AM
Relegation is on the line also, which could spurs whichever team decides to turn up. Wellington have the power to put big points on teams that don't turn up on defense. The halftime score will tell all.. Welly up by 10 or more and it's shut the gate time.

htft for me on this one
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snake2710
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#5
Posted: 8/18/2011 1:09:33 AM

underandover

yea was thinking of having a play on that myself again tonight. Counties got home for me so may as well have another crack.

Pick:

Wellington HTFT 5 units @ $2.00

BOL all

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#6
Posted: 8/18/2011 1:53:21 AM
Same here and just a little bit on -5.5
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#7
Posted: 8/18/2011 1:57:45 AM
No Vito
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snake2710
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#8
Posted: 8/18/2011 4:23:27 AM

Looking good all 3 bets live going into the 2nd half.

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#9
Posted: 8/18/2011 5:16:33 AM
Haha, backdoor cover for the southland backers.. Urgh
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snake2710
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#10
Posted: 8/18/2011 5:18:12 AM

ITM Cup YTD 47-34 +36.00 units

Wellington HTFT

Wellington OMG that was horrible end to a game

Under

Always tmrw to win it back and more and more

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#11
Posted: 8/18/2011 7:16:15 PM
I got lucky with Southland -6.5, so glad they took the points rather than going for the try
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#12
Posted: 8/18/2011 7:17:34 PM

I mean +6.5

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snake2710
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#13
Posted: 8/18/2011 8:51:56 PM
Phatmaori
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#14
Posted: 8/18/2011 9:46:49 PM
Killing it at the moment haha only game I have on tonight is the Bunnies since no ITM and all the lines for ITM tomorrow aren't up yet!
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snake2710
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#15
Posted: 8/18/2011 11:33:17 PM

haha. Dw mate take my play on storm and you will not regret it. Public are all playing Siants. Its a very square play and i just think at home Storm are to good.

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#16
Posted: 8/19/2011 12:22:30 AM
I hope your right Snake 
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snake2710
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#17
Posted: 8/19/2011 12:28:52 AM

maximusnz

I think im right. Love the storm tonight.

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#18
Posted: 8/19/2011 1:39:40 AM
ok  Do you think +7.5 taranaki is a good bet against Canterbury tomorrow?
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snake2710
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#19
Posted: 8/19/2011 2:13:13 AM

Yea that is a good line keep in mind havnt had a look at that at all but seems good to me.

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#20
Posted: 8/19/2011 2:14:24 AM
Disagree. Taking storm is a 'square' play...

Square to me means obvious, and that's the storm. This is a great situation bet for the drags, doesn't mean they'll win though, however the value is there, win or lose.
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snake2710
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#21
Posted: 8/19/2011 3:32:56 PM

well sucked no game last night but means we have 4 today and a few goodies.

Picks:

Naki +7.5 5 units @ $1.80

Well this is far to high imo and i think the naki have a good chance to take the win Su in this game. Naki are 3-1 Su and ATS in the confrence. Canterbury are 1-3 Su and ATS in the confrence. So really you can see the value in +7 for yourself. This is a big play for me and think the naki will be ready and up for this game. Looking at it for some good form going into the shield match next week.

Auckland -1.5 5 units @ $1.90

Well yes both these teams have been poor this year to date. However with that in mind Auckland still have slim chance of making the top 2. BOP started so well and now have just forgot how to win. My opinion Auckland win this by 5+. Auckland are 2-2 Su and ATS in confrence and BOP are 2-1 Su and ATS but really they have now lost 4 in a row and dont see that changing at Eden park this arvo.

Lean:

Naki/Canterbury over ? 5 units

Well dont have a line but this would be a good play imo. Both teams have looked great on attack and have shown the ability to score a lot of points. Canterbury are 2-2 on totals and Naki are 3-1. So reackon good bases for an over play there.

Waikato -5.5 5 units @ $1.90

Well this game is going to be a good one. 2 teams who are in good form and cruden is going to want to impress big time infront of the core of his new team for next year. Waikato are 3-0 Su and ATS outside confence and the manawatu boys are 2-1 Su and ATS so both teams have been good against the other confrence but think the mooloo boys have to much tonight. Will lock down later on when have better feel for the game and weather conditions.

Well dont have any lines for totals and wont be home till midd arvo.

BOL All

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#22
Posted: 8/19/2011 4:33:26 PM

o the naki play as well bol 
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#23
Posted: 8/19/2011 4:33:39 PM

o the naki play as well bol 
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#24
Posted: 8/19/2011 4:34:02 PM

o the naki play as well bol 
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#25
Posted: 8/19/2011 6:48:28 PM
I will most likely tail your Naki bet, not sure if I want to multi it with Waikato though. Might take the safe option and not.

I have no lines on TAB for Auckland or Harbour games

Odds are pretty much even for SU so that could be why. Auckland 1.70 to win isn't too bad
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