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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....
vanzack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#51
Posted: 11/28/2005 6:29:36 PM
giefman - im going to start a thread in a couple of days of juice reduction.  
 
Exchanges like Mansion, Matchbook, and tradesports are a great place to start. And there is no downside - all 3 of these are very solid - and actually carry less risk than a book because they are just providing a service and taking a percentage. Like the house dealing cards and taking a rake at poker - no risk - just profits on volume.  
GL
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#52
Posted: 11/28/2005 6:54:25 PM
VAN If you do not mind me asking what are "Exchanges like Mansion, Matchbook, and tradesports." Are they sports books of "Middle Men."?
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#53
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:07:03 PM
Johnny - they are player to player exchanges. You make an offer and it is posted, if someone accepts the offer you have a bet and the winner usually pays a 1% commission to the house.  
 
So take tonights game as an example. I put an offer out on the Colts -8 ev and you like the steelers so you take it. You have a bet with no juice and so do I.  
 
Often I put out offers at +102 for me and -102 for you. -102 is still often a good bet for you so you take it. Now I have +102.  
 
Go check out mansion, matchbook, and tradesports. Just add the .com  
 
GL
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#54
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:10:12 PM
Van the man...I agree with your original post 100 percent.  
 
Last year my goal was to double my money over the course of an NFL season. I reached my goal in I believe after the NFC Championship game of the playoffs, I was hot as hell, finishing the year on a 14-1-1 ATS tear and I actually quit and didn't bet on the superbowl because I hit my goal and saw no reason to put it in jeapardy. A doctor friend of mine though did bet 10 K on the Pats moneyline to win about 4 K.  
 
This year I deposited 40 units into my account with the same goal to double my deposit, and continued on that hot tear. I think I reached 80 units after about a month of NFL season. I have dropped below the DOUBLE zone, as I tapered off a little but Now I currently sit at 86 units. I have 10 weeks I made money, and only 2 weeks I lost money. I believe in making every week a winning week.  
 
I believe in better 10% or more occasionally. I believe early on I might have bet half my bankroll on 1 game ( that I won easily), and later on after I was already UP, I made a 40 unit bet on a heavy Fav ML ( that was maybe the biggest blowout of the NFL year).  
 
I think you should only put money in your account that you can AFFORD to lose. I would be OK if I lost my 40 unit deposit ( but not happy). I think there is a time to be aggressive.  
 
Right now sitting at 86 units, I don't know whether or not to QUIT ( as I have seriously contemplated) or to try and finish the year +50 units, or to reach 100 units ( +60).  
 
I also have 2 SEASON prop bets including Dallas to win the superbowl 50/1 odds that can be hedged.  
 
I really believe in setting goals and trying to reach them. An NFL season is a grind.
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#55
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:14:45 PM
Van thanks for the post and I do have a couple questions for you. I do see this as an investment on something I love so I do look at long term over a season. I also understand how important low juice can be over a season as far as profits go. I unfortunately am not a big time player right now. I have tried so many books and the closest book with a reduced juice is canbet and I am not fond of their withdrawal policy. My bankroll is less than $500, so considering early lines and how I do not want to pay for withdrawals, I chose CRIS. I really would love to play at Pinnacle, but due to my small bankroll at the moment it doesn't fit me due to the neteller withdrawal charges. I know I shouldnt play the 10% bets (-110), but I really don't know what else to do. Is it a good or bad decision to stay with a book like CRIS?
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#56
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:21:39 PM
C-GOLD - great post.  
 
What I do in your situation is: When I reach my goal early I stop, and make a new goal and bankroll. My real life example is that I hit my goal of doubling 2 weeks ago and now I am in my second goal of the season. This one is the same bankroll as the first with a less aggressive 50% gain. So I bet less games. And my percentage is a little less. The money I made in doubling my bankroll is now PROFIT and set aside.  
 
It is constant reevaluation or your goals are not useful. If you hit your goal and dont quit -whats the point of the goal? You need to re-evaluate at that point. Either you just take your profits or you devise a strategy for the rest of the year - but right NOW YOU ARE HAPPY TO BREAK EVEN THE REST OF THE YEAR AND THAT IS NOT WHERE YOU SHOULD BE!! If your goal was 80 units and you are currently at 86, then you are happy just breaking even the rest of the year. You need to take profits, make a new bankroll and goal, and get it done - or sit it out.  
 
GL
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#57
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:26:24 PM
Austintx - it is a terrible decision to stay with CRIS. And I will tell you why. 10% on $50 is the same as 10% on 50,000 dollars. DONT PAY IT!  
 
Now - you say you cant play at pinny because of the neteller fees. But let me ask you this - IF YOU HAVE A BANKROLL OF 500 WHY ARE YOU WITHDRAWING MONEY?? The fact that you are making neteller withdrawals tells me that you are not setting a goal and do not have a true bankroll. THE ONLY TIME YOU WITHDRAW ANY MONEY IS WHEN YOU HIT YOUR GOAL OR THE TIMEFRAME IS OVER. READ THAT AGAIN!! It is critical to understand. This is not money you need for rent or McDonalds - so why are you withdrawing?  
 
The one time you withdraw from Pinny will be free or 15 dollars. ONCE. And do you know how much you will save in juice????? Hundreds. Hundreds.  
 
I beg you to do the math and switch to pinnacle.  
 
GL  
 
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#58
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:26:29 PM
Van I could use a little insight to my post?
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#59
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:31:16 PM
AND AS A BONUS AUSTIN - you get 10% for your first deposit at pinny!! SO you are already 10% ahead.  
 
1. Make a goal  
2. Set your bankroll  
3. make a timeframe  
4. Caculate your expected handicapping %  
5. Calculate your expected juice percentage  
 
Then figure out how many plays in that timeframe you need to make your goal and do your best.  
 
BUT DO IT AT PINNY  
 
GL
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#60
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:37:39 PM
Excellent Pro Gambler advice!!  
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#61
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:44:33 PM
VAN thanks for the info!
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#62
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:46:47 PM
Van, really some great insight there. I had never thought about it that way before. I was thinkinh more of I am investing $100 hopefully to turn it in to $500 as part of my income, but you are talking about more of taking a starting amount and making a profit over a season and never withdrawing. Thus seeing how you come ahead at the end of a season, right? If only have $200 to start with, you still would recommend Pinnacle? 1 unit would be equal to $10 I am assuming?
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#63
Posted: 11/28/2005 7:58:36 PM
Excellent post VAN .im a small time gambler who gambles to make $ and because i live sports but dont find myself addicted as i sometimes spend 2 weeks without playing.i started with a small bankroll of 300 and right now im up to 1200 after football started i have a goal that is to get to 2k and take a vacatione to vegas for a week or so.opposite of what most of us do give it right back to the bookie.i'd rather go spend it and have fun.i think there are 3 rules to gamblin  
 
1-MONEY MANAGAMENT  
2-KNOW YOUR SPORT  
3-TAKE BREAKS
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#64
Posted: 11/28/2005 8:04:06 PM
Your too professional for me Van  
 
I just work for a living and bet for fun  
 
Just keep your winners coming for us peasant folk
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#65
Posted: 11/28/2005 8:04:10 PM
example of what vanzack is explaining:  
 
Time # Teams Spread Total Money  
11/28  
09:05p 1197 1H-STEELERS +5+105 o24-105  
1198 1H-COLTS -5-125 u24-115  
 
i like the colts in the 1H but im never paying 25% for any bet i think its a ripoff
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#66
Posted: 11/28/2005 8:15:40 PM
Great thread van.........& to everyone who has chimed in.  
 
I dabbled in betting with local 10 years ago & almost lost my behind......literally & figuratively. I started back up 3 years ago & lost my roll in about 6 weeks. Last year I lost about $400 (20 units). Armed with a better book (Pinny instead of BOS.com), a better roll for bigger units,& somewhat more discipline I'm still up about 6 units. Not real impressive & I can tell you where a portion was pissed away............parlays. I have hit a few but overall it has cost me more than I've won. The worst part is I've known it's a losing cause for 3 years now but sometimes find it irresistable. Also playing too many games. Not because I make 10-20 plays on a Saturday but playing the games during the week just to have action when the best play is no play.  
 
That's where the sickness/lack of discipline hurts me most. I need to be content with picking games I have an honest read on. It's not that I don't pick enough winners, it's that I give too much money away.  
Patience in making the play has helped. Like van has suggested, I try to wait & read the line before making a play to save on juice. That's when being at a book like Pinnacle has helped as your play might be giving 6 @ -109 but if you wait a bit you may get it at -101 or +100...........or it goes to 6.5 & you get +104.  
 
Van, you're absolutely correct with your definition of what a bankroll should be. If you you're too scared to pull the trigger on a play because you're worried about losing money, then you are handicapped.  
 
I'm a small-timer but only with money, not passion. I certainly appreciate all I've learned from the players here with so much more experience.
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#67
Posted: 11/28/2005 8:45:03 PM
This is why Covers is a good sight, this thread was excellent. Many good points in your thread.  
 
Vanzack really interested in the part of reducing juice even more, like the2% level you are at. Over the last 3 years I have reduced my juice % , and I dont keep an average but would estimate about 7.5%, and it makes abig difference. When you wager everyday it is amazing what it does for the account.  
 
The use a different type of bankroll system which after years of not caring works for me. I try to run my gambling as a business, and go month by month. I budget more during the September through March Madness and then scale down April through August. 5% -10% per play until or if I have made 50% profit, then I go 7.5%-15%. At the end of the month I sweep my money. Sometimes your on a good streak it isnt that easy to start the next month at 5% wagers, but on the reverse if your going bad it works out. C-Gold show a lot of disipline by even contemplating stopping, being up on the season. thats my 2 cents, really would love to hear technique for reduced juice 2%  
 
nice thread  
 
 
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#68
Posted: 11/28/2005 8:48:58 PM
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#69
Posted: 11/28/2005 8:49:33 PM
meant to be the GOOD THREAD emoticon.
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#70
Posted: 11/28/2005 8:53:41 PM
Nice effort anyway, wiz.  
 
=)  
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#71
Posted: 11/28/2005 10:37:25 PM
man, what a great thread. this forum has been in dire need of a good thread like this. THIS IS WHAT THIS FORUM SHOULD BE ABOUT, NOT THE BULLSHIT. lemme throw my two cents in here if i may...  
 
The advice in this thread is invaluable. Lowering juice however you can is a point so many gamblers fail to realize or pay enough attention to. Offshore books now have to compete with each other in order for them to get your business. Why people use these crap books like bodog or whoever else that will charge you to bet is beyond me. Granted, I'm not using an exchange like the ones Van is using, but I'm only using Pinny. My brother has a system that he uses for the ponies, and will only use Pinny. He ONLY goes to the track when they have a contest, something where he can win more than his original bets. Why? Because of the 7% he is getting back from Pinny. If you go to the track, do you think the teller is going to take your losing ticket and give you back 7% of your bet? Hell no. But Pinny does.  
 
I guess my point is that there are options out there that will save you money. Who doesn't want to save money? These casinos/books/local whoever is looking for your action. You should do whatever possible to reduce the juice.  
 
Finally, I think a good thread to start would also be on the handicapping side of gambling. What it might contain, don't know. But at least we can start a good thread like this to analyze this aspect. Anyhow, thanks van for starting this up. This forum needs more of this type of discusssion.  
 
 
 
 
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#72
Posted: 11/28/2005 11:23:26 PM
Been here a little while JP, lurking for 5 years now .. THIS IS AN EXCELLENT THREAD
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#73
Posted: 11/29/2005 12:45:24 AM
Just getting back from watching the Monday night game and want to address the comments individually:  
 
AUSTINTX - YES!! It doesnt matter if your bankroll is 200, take it and go to pinny. And you do understand me - THAT MONEY IS NOT LUNCH MONEY. So dont withdraw it. Dont buy Christmas gifts with it. YOU MAKE ONE WITHDRAWAL!! At the end of your timeframe or when you hit your goal. Keep me updated on your progress.  
 
Electric & Booman  
 
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#74
Posted: 11/29/2005 12:47:25 AM
How do you come up with your numbers for figuring out the difference with wins, losses and profits when comparing -110 to -107, -105, -104 etc?
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#75
Posted: 11/29/2005 12:47:33 AM
Electric brings up a good example in his -125 scenario. This gets in to very tricky ground - but I am not saying to never lay -125. I am saying that you need to calculate the amount of juice vs the expected return on that wager - and if the juice is too large dont bet it. That is a very simple way to say something very complicated and if someone wants a dissertation on that - one can be written.  
 
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