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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....
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#26
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:31:13 PM
Van, now THAT would be most excellent. I'm anxiously waiting.  
 
First step, of course, I've already taken. PISS OFF, BODOG.
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#27
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:31:21 PM
I ask because this is only my second year wagering online, locals for me were never profitable but I made so much money on baseball this year and my previous local doesnt take baseball action
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#28
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:32:29 PM
Shady, my personal feeling is, never kick yourself for taking too few games and never complain about money won.  
 
It's a natural reaction to say, 'damn, I should have loaded up on that one,' after an easy winner. But discipline is so important in this, you need to stick to it. Also, you just won, which is hard enough, don't get down on yourself for not going bigger because there will be times when you go big and lose, and you'll be down on yourself enough.  
 
Also, with too few games. I'd rather go 3-1 than 6-5 almost any day of the week, so if you can up your percentage by playing less, do it. And if you can keep yourself from getting sucked into a game just because it's on TV or you want/need the action, again, you're one step ahead.  
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#29
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:34:20 PM
Van, that is the one thing that really interests me about the exchanges. There have been times where I've wanted to sell points and couldn't. Pinnacle has started to do some of this, but sometimes their numbers aren't good enough to justify it.  
 
But that does really interest me.
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#30
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:37:55 PM
Shady - the system that I use ONLY WORKS IF ALL COMPONENTS ARE IN PLACE.  
 
That includes goal and timeframe.  
 
So if your goal is to double your money in a week - you need to bet lots of games. If your goal is to double your money in a season, you need to bet less games.  
 
My goal for this NFL season was to double my money in a season. I wanted to bet about 120 games for the season and to hit 55%. I hit my goal 2 weeks ago - and have started a new goal to make 50% over the rest of the season with a new bankroll.  
 
This is managing your money. You will never say in my system "i should have bet more on that" or "I should have bet more games" BECAUSE IT IS ALREADY OUTLINGED IN YOUR GOAL AND IN YOUR FRAMEWORK. Bet 120 games over the next 4 months at 700-1300 a game, and if I do hit 55% i WILL double my money. THATS IT!! No guesswork.  
 
It works for me.  
 
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#31
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:41:38 PM
Im 23 and got too involved in gambling, now im nearly $20,000 in debt. I made dumb decisions and didnt bet a certain amount. I bet on my credit cards thinking I would win the money to pay them off and well that never happened my losing streak continued for 2 months. I think it is important that people realize that this is an addiction and that you should make better decisions when gambling whether you are doing it for a fun or to make a living from it.  
 
I still currently place bets on a daily basis but under more self control and plan on one day making gambling a part of my professional life.
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#32
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:47:07 PM
bdizzletke - like everything in life - drinking, drugs, smoking - there are those that get addicted and then there are those that can drink casually.  
 
This is not advocated for those that get a rush from gambling. THIS IS NOT ENTERTAINMENT. That is what I said in my original post. There are plenty of nights I have 10k on a game and dont even watch it. It is not exactly bland business either - I enjoy it - but it is not addicting for me. IF IT IS FOR YOU YOU SHOULD NOT BE DOING IT.  
 
I see this as business and a way for me to sit on my fat behind, enjoy time with my family, and make a living. The adrenaline rushes are a side effect but not the driving factor.  
 
GL
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#33
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:52:52 PM
 
 
great topic vanzack, covers needs more topics like this an less of tha bullshit thats been here tha year or so
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#34
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:57:15 PM
I would be happy to go 3-2 every week but I am almost guaranteed to take the sunday and mon night games so thats usually a 6th or 7th wager. I do have good discipline and rarly do I bet big on one game because I am in it for the season and not just a few weeks.  
 
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#35
Posted: 11/28/2005 4:59:18 PM
Good post, Bdiz. I admire the honesty. Good luck to you.
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#36
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:01:41 PM
Shady - that is fine. What is your goal? What is your bankroll? What is your timeframe? What is your handicapping percentage (conservative)?  
 
Once you have those three questions answered - it is simple math to back in to how many games you should bet over the course of the season. And you should stick to it - then you will hit your goal in your desired timeframe if you hit your handicapping percentage. If you are above your percentage - you hit it early - if you are below your profitability suffers.  
 
Pretty simple actually - BUT NOBODY ACTUALLY OUTLINES THESE FACTORS AND FIGURES OUT HOW MANY GAMES TO BE OVER THEIR TIMEFRAME..  
 
DO IT!! You will be happy you did  
 
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#37
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:07:11 PM
Vanzack- I follow you on a regular basis and respect you as a capper but I do have a different view on some of your thoughts. I agree getting the lowest juice is important as I try and most should try to do. However, I never bet more than 2% of my bankroll and I believe a serious capper should not go above this either. I have been doing this a while and I don't post much but by sticking at no more than 2% it would basically take around 50 losses to wipe me out. If I start with 5k I would bet 100 dollars a game. Now a lot of people might start with 500-1000 dollars and might want to be aggressive and put it at 5-7% because you will esentially spin your wheels and not make much betting 25 dollars a game at 2%. But you also have less to lose. For me to double my units in a sport for that season I would have to win about 50 units, which is hard to do but it is reasonable to win half that much. If I double my money for that sport and am now up to 10k then I will bump up to 200 dollars a game, always 2%. I bet the same amount for each game which is important and If I start betting 100 bucks a game in baseball I bet that for the whole season and when the season ends I then adjust accordingly to where I'm at with my bankroll. What I'm saying is that If I start the season on a bad or good note I don't fluctuate my amounts based on my bankroll, I bet where my bankroll was at when the season starts, really the only way I see doing it. We all go through bad runs and if you are betting 10% of your roll I see you heading for disaster. By betting 2% of my roll I can go through quite a bad spell and still be in the game. Lets say after the baseball season I'm down 2k to 3k in my roll then I start over again and bet 2% and try and build it up again. Im rambling on but this has really worked for me. Just my two cents, good luck.
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#38
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:12:31 PM
giefman - it all depends on your:  
 
1. goal  
2, timeframe  
3. bankroll  
4. expected handicapping %  
5. Juice percentage  
 
If your goal is aggressive - betting 2% of your bankroll doesnt make sense. If your goal is to increase your bankroll 10%, then 2% makes sense.  
 
My point is that 99% of gamblers dont know the answers to questions 1-5 above. They have no idea.  
 
Im not saying your more conservative approach is bad - but my goal is to double my money in a season betting about 120 games over that season - and in order to do it I need to bet about 10% per play.  
 
GL - good comments  
 
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#39
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:14:25 PM
However, I never bet more than 2% of my bankroll and I believe a serious capper should not go above this either.  
 
I do disagree with this statement though. Keep in mind my definition of the concept of bankroll - it is not rent money. It is money you can lose in the course of an investment.  
 
So if your goal is aggressive you need to raise your percentage.  
 
GL
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#40
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:20:14 PM
Hey guys, there was a thread similar to this a few weeks ago, I cant seem to find it with a search. The original posts were similar, betting basics and such. Anyone remember what Im talking about, or have i simply lost my mind?
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#41
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:27:34 PM
O love to invest and I love to gamble
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#42
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:32:11 PM
I am considering my bankroll what I have in my account online, not the amount I am willing to lose before I quit betting on football which is much higher.  
 
all year I have kept my college and pro football wagers to the same amount (10%)with a rare exception. the past month my bankroll increased significantly but i am still sticking to my original wager increment. but...if the amount I am willing to lose maybe I should inrease it to 15% no?  
 
I dont consider myself quite as skilled in college as I do pro but I have won this year at a rate I never expected. and since its my first year going with college I will probably stick to the same increment there
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#43
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:33:14 PM
For most people betting 10% of their roll can wipe out that particular roll in a hurry. In one weekend you can be broke. I can hit 55% for the season but their will be times when I will still lose 10 games over the course of a couple weeks. I'm pretty safe with this approach. I have told myself I will never bet more than 500 dollars a game. So when I build up to a roll of 25k then I bet two percent of that which is 500 dollars a game. Any profit I make after that I withdraw. If I win 20 units over the nfl season I would profit around 10k which is awesome money. I don't have a timeframe or a goal really. My goal is to win money but I don't look at it in a timeframe. I think you can be conservative and win lots of money onece you build your roll like I talked about above. It might take you some 2 years to build your roll to 25k but it can be done even if you start with 5k. My rule is to never bet over 2% and that's the golden rule for me. It takes more time and patience this way but theirs less risk. I was burned before when I was a rookie and when something isn't working you need to fix it and this has worked for me. The hardest thing for me is hitting at 55% to make good money, every other rule for me is set. I could go into how I hit that mark but it would take too long, but I am a pure coattailer and have been all along because I can't cap. I have learned lots about money management which oh so many people overlook, this everyone can learn on their own if they read into it. If you know what your doing you can make money without capping yourself and I don't pay for picks either. Alot of people cap games but I cap cappers. ANyway just my two cents.
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#44
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:33:16 PM
my ingame bets are usually 2% bets, never big, just looking for a little fun with those and maybe a bonus to my wins
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#45
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:40:59 PM
shady my advice would be to lower your %. You are doing well now but what happens when you hit the wall and a big losing streak. Keep building your roll and don't take out any money until you get to a comfortable amount betting. I would never bet more than 500 bucks a game so 25k roll times 2% is 500 a game. You can make good money doing this at a conservative approach. Yes it takes time but when you build that roll to that point then all your profits can be withdrawn.
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#46
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:59:38 PM
VanZack This is a great thread, and I agreewith what you are saying, and with the help you are trying to provide . I didn't mean to come off as argumentative, and if I did, I apologize.  
 
I know that you, me, and several on board here DO make a living at this, and your teachings can be very beneficial.  
 
Juice is what makes the game unbeatable for the masses, and the grease that moves the big wheel of the industry.  
 
There are three groups that make money off of sports betting:  
 
1) Offshore Sportsbooks/casinos/local books  
 
2) Touts or pay services  
 
3) Sports bettors ( though it is probably around 1-2 % of those who make sports bets)  
 
By reducing the amount of juice involved, it is just practicing good business tactic of watching the bottom line, or the cost of doing business. Your argument on the topic is ROCK SOLID!  
 
But I suspect that handicapping is a skill that CAN improve over time, there are many that will never master that critical aspect of betting.  
 
Personally, I have gambled for 27 years, and lost money in most of the first 21-22 years, and only in the last 5-6 years have I turned a yearly profit. I attribute it to experience, and most of it the hard way, i.e. losing my behind several times. I cannot stress enough how important that disciplined play (not chasing after a loss, betting just because its on TV, betting because it is the only game available to bet on, betting on morning games and waiting to see how you do before playing later games) combined with money management-----(setting a limit, not chasing, having a plan, etc.) and regulating juice risked is the key to any real financial gain.  
 
Good thread VZ
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#47
Posted: 11/28/2005 5:59:56 PM
This is hands down one of the best threads I have ever read on this board! Very interesting read. Please keep the indepth comments coming! VAN thanks for starting it and thanks to EVERYONE who are giving possitive and constructive comments. Wish all threads on this board could be this good! I know I sound like a homer but I mean it!
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#48
Posted: 11/28/2005 6:08:34 PM
Yeah, we need that 'good thread' emoticon.  
 
Or at least a visit from the soccerball for this one.
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#49
Posted: 11/28/2005 6:20:21 PM
Thx guys  
 
giefman - i guess we can agree to disagree. I do not subscribe to putting 2% on your games because it might not fit your investment strategy. My strategy ALLOWS ME TO LOSE MY BANKROLL IN THE FIRST WEEKEND. I am willing to accept that risk in order to hit my aggressive goal. Once again - this is not entertainment - this is investment return for me. Im not saying that Im right and you are wrong - I just think we have different philosophies. GL  
 
Cantpick - I totally agree with you and fit your description of yourself pretty closely!! I too had many tough years and now it is getting easier and easier. I guess my point is that the most IMMEDIATE and EASIEST way for a gambler to IMMEDIATELY make an impact on his success is to lower juice. I agree you can become a better handicapper but that includes time, pain, and certain unintangibles. Someone can work on their juice reduction right away then worry about handicapping later.  
 
NEVER PAY 10% FOR A BET ANYMORE!! I never do, and neither should you!!  
 
GL all  
 
Johnny021 - thx
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#50
Posted: 11/28/2005 6:25:44 PM
van- appreciate your insight and yes we do have 2 different philosohies but it looks like they both work. Where do you get such good juice and are there any limitations to using a book like that? thanks!!
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