Posted: 3/22/2013 2:11:48 AM Cisco's 5 Run Loss Chase got me to thinking about doing something in reverse. After back testing the last three seasons, here is what I have come up with.
5 Run Win Chase
Qualifiers: Any team that has a .525 winning percentage or higher that LOSES a game by 5 or more runs will trigger a chase. Skip 2 games (a 5 run loss in either skipped game restarts chase) then chase up to 4 games that the system team will win one game. Lay Odds betting strategy is to win 1 unit using Martingale betting strategy. Plus Money betting strategy is to bet 1 unit, then two units, three units, then four units until a chase loss is achieved.
Start date: Third Monday after start of season.
Two different betting strategies: 1. Lay Odds: Play ML on favorites, +1.5 RL on dogs 2. Plus Money: Play -1.5 RL on favorites, ML on dogs
Here are the results for the last three seasons:
TOTAL
Lay Odds: 278-4 +178 units Plus Money: 262-20 +140 units
2012
Lay Odds: 114-0 +114 units Plus Money: 109-5 +91.7 units
2011
Lay Odds: 88-2 +38 units Plus Money: 81-9 +15.3 units
2010
Lay Odds: 76-2 +26 units Plus Money: 72-6 +33.6 units
Series Losses
Lay Odds: Approx 25 units Plus Money: 10 units |