5 Run WIN Chase

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 5 Run WIN Chase
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 3/22/2013 2:11:48 AM
Cisco's 5 Run Loss Chase got me to thinking about doing something in reverse.  After back testing the last three seasons, here is what I have come up with.

5 Run Win Chase

Qualifiers:  Any team that has a .525 winning percentage or higher that LOSES a game by 5 or more runs will trigger a chase.  Skip 2 games (a 5 run loss in either skipped game restarts chase) then chase up to 4 games that the system team will win one game.  Lay Odds betting strategy is to win 1 unit using Martingale betting strategy.  Plus Money betting strategy is to bet 1 unit, then two units, three units, then four units until a chase loss is achieved.

Start date:  Third Monday after start of season.

Two different betting strategies:
1.  Lay Odds:  Play ML on favorites, +1.5 RL on dogs
2.  Plus Money:  Play -1.5 RL on favorites, ML on dogs

Here are the results for the last three seasons:

TOTAL

Lay Odds:  278-4    +178 units
Plus Money:  262-20    +140 units

2012

Lay Odds:  114-0    +114 units
Plus Money:  109-5    +91.7 units

2011

Lay Odds:  88-2    +38 units
Plus Money:  81-9    +15.3 units

2010

Lay Odds:  76-2    +26 units
Plus Money:  72-6    +33.6 units

Series Losses

Lay Odds:  Approx 25 units
Plus Money:  10 units
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 3/22/2013 2:17:33 AM
I should have also mentioned that the average Plus Money odds were +130.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/22/2013 12:48:01 PM
Nice work! One question though. If a team has say a .530 winning % then has a 5 run loss, followed by the 2 skip games (both losses) and that brings them below .525 %, is it a play?
jaime2309 PM jaime2309
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Posted: 3/22/2013 2:29:40 PM
Will you be posting plays?
Alldaygambler28 PM Alldaygambler28
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Posted: 3/22/2013 7:34:17 PM
This looks awfully familiar to my work.
cdburgess PM cdburgess
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Posted: 3/23/2013 12:40:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by flwareagle:

Cisco's 5 Run Loss Chase got me to thinking about doing something in reverse.  After back testing the last three seasons, here is what I have come up with.

5 Run Win Chase

Qualifiers:  Any team that has a .525 winning percentage or higher that LOSES a game by 5 or more runs will trigger a chase.  Skip 2 games (a 5 run loss in either skipped game restarts chase) then chase up to 4 games that the system team will win one game.  Lay Odds betting strategy is to win 1 unit using Martingale betting strategy.  Plus Money betting strategy is to bet 1 unit, then two units, three units, then four units until a chase loss is achieved.

Start date:  Third Monday after start of season.

Two different betting strategies:
1.  Lay Odds:  Play ML on favorites, +1.5 RL on dogs
2.  Plus Money:  Play -1.5 RL on favorites, ML on dogs

Here are the results for the last three seasons:

TOTAL

Lay Odds:  278-4    +178 units
Plus Money:  262-20    +140 units

2012

Lay Odds:  114-0    +114 units
Plus Money:  109-5    +91.7 units

2011

Lay Odds:  88-2    +38 units
Plus Money:  81-9    +15.3 units

2010

Lay Odds:  76-2    +26 units
Plus Money:  72-6    +33.6 units

Series Losses

Lay Odds:  Approx 25 units
Plus Money:  10 units

Will you be posting throughout the season?
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 3/23/2013 1:57:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jaime2309:

Will you be posting plays?

Hadn't thought about it, but I might.
1958a PM 1958a
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Posted: 3/30/2013 5:10:24 AM
hi flwareagle,

I did a MLB SDQL Query on your system and found different results although still seems to be a winning system.

season = 2012 and ppppppo:runs - pppppp:runs >= 5 and ppppp:WP >= 52.5 and playoffs = 0 and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L

I understand you consider the winning percentage right after the 5 run loss right?

season 2012: total number of games 205

game 1 109-96 average odds -117,3
game 2 53-43 average odds -119,5
game 3 27-16 average odds -106,9
game 4 11-5 average odds -119,5

average losses for a system loss 20,66 units

However 2011 season looks ugly with 14 losses

tell me if you think there is an error on the query or send me a message to check it further\

regards
1958a PM 1958a
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Posted: 3/30/2013 5:13:03 AM
sorry, i mean series not games 205
Ddubb_Steady PM Ddubb_Steady
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Posted: 3/30/2013 2:41:10 PM
Cisco's 5 run chase system is a winner...
bruin95 PM bruin95
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Posted: 3/31/2013 1:02:32 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by 1958a:

hi flwareagle,

I did a MLB SDQL Query on your system and found different results although still seems to be a winning system.

season = 2012 and ppppppo:runs - pppppp:runs >= 5 and ppppp:WP >= 52.5 and playoffs = 0 and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L

I understand you consider the winning percentage right after the 5 run loss right?

season 2012: total number of games 205

game 1 109-96 average odds -117,3
game 2 53-43 average odds -119,5
game 3 27-16 average odds -106,9
game 4 11-5 average odds -119,5

average losses for a system loss 20,66 units

However 2011 season looks ugly with 14 losses

tell me if you think there is an error on the query or send me a message to check it further\

regards

 

Did you skip 2 games after the 5 run loss?

1958a PM 1958a
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Posted: 3/31/2013 5:25:33 AM
bruin95,

I went only as deep as three losses, not four.  I rerun the query for four losses and here are the results

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=season+%3D+2011+and+pppppppo%3Aruns+-+ppppppp%3Aruns+%3E%3D+5+and+pppppp%3AWP+%3E%3D+52.5+and+playoffs+%3D+0+and+p%3AL+and+pp%3AL+and+ppp%3AL+and+pppp%3AL&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

you can play around with season=2011 to get results for every season.
Last year (2012) was good with one system loss

One loss on Det Apri 19 the chase start with a 10-3 loss to TEXAS etc

for 2011 after 4 game chase on moneyline we have 8 losses (the worst year along with 2006 for 10 losses).

ERBATIZ PM ERBATIZ
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Posted: 3/31/2013 1:00:25 PM
bruin95 PM bruin95
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Posted: 3/31/2013 4:53:39 PM
I wish I was smart enough to do these database searches.  I go to those sites, look at the examples, and still can't grasp how to do it.  It's all gibberish to me.  Makes my head spin.
Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 6/6/2013 7:21:42 PM
hey eagle how id the system doing so far this season?
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 6/6/2013 8:44:39 PM
Ill have to check my stats when I get home, but the last I checked, it was 44-0 or 45-0.  I am only betting the lay odds way.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 6/7/2013 12:15:11 AM
I just checked and it is now 50-0 after Thursday's games with one open chase (Cleveland is a B bet tomorrow).
Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 6/7/2013 1:10:46 AM
Thanks for the info. do you have a list of plays? I have started making my own, just want to make sure our plays match up.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 6/7/2013 7:26:31 PM
Do you mean a list of past plays or daily plays?
Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 6/7/2013 8:56:04 PM
I am going to make a like of all plays this season. like cisco does with his main street page.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 6/8/2013 11:29:58 AM
Here are the season results so far (51-0, 1 open):

4-22.  WAS-A
4-22.  STL-A
4-23.  ATL-A
4-24.  OAK-A
4-24.  DET-B
4-26.  BOS-A
4-26.  COL-A
4-28.  CIN-A
4-28.  OAK-A
4-29.  PIT-C
5-1.   ATL-D
5-1.   STL-A
5-2.   TEX-B
5-3.   NYY-B
5-4.   KC-A
5-4.   COL-A
5-4.   BAL-A
5-6.   BOS-A
5-9.   COL-D
5-10.  TEX-A
5-10.  BOS-A
5-12.  CIN-A
5-13.  KC-A
5-14.  ATL-C
5-14.  WAS-C
5-16.  BOS-A
5-17.  COL-A
5-17.  ARI-A
5-17.  CLE-A
5-18.  NYY-A
5-18.  SF-C
5-22.  DET-A
5-22.  SF-C
5-24.  TEX-A
5-26.  BAL-B
5-26.  BOS-A
5-27.  SF-D
5-27.  CLE-C
5-29.  NYY-C
5-30.  ATL-A
5-31.  BAL-A
5-31.  CLE-B
6-1.   NYY-C
6-1.   CIN-A
6-3.   ARI-B
6-3.   PIT-B
6-4.   NYY-A
6-5.   BAL-B
6-5.   CLE-(pending C bet)
6-6.   MIN-A
6-7.   TB-A
6-7.   ARI-A

Today's Plays

6-8.  CLE-C bet
6-8.  TEX-A bet


flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 6/8/2013 11:50:45 AM
Correction to 6-6 above:  MIN is a 5 Run Loss Chase....that bet was KC to beat MIN, which they did.

CORRECTED RECORD ABOVE:  50-0, 1 open chase

I will check to make sure there aren't any others.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 6/8/2013 11:51:54 AM
The dates above are the date of the A bet.
ERBATIZ PM ERBATIZ
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Posted: 6/8/2013 11:54:47 AM
VERY NICE RECORD
Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 6/9/2013 2:38:57 AM
eagle that is perfect. thank you for the info on the plays. i'll adjust mine accordingly.
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