## 5 Run WIN Chase |
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Forum:
Systems & Strategies |
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Author: | [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 5 Run WIN Chase |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#15 Run Win Chase Qualifiers: Any team that has a .525 winning percentage or higher that LOSES a game by 5 or more runs will trigger a chase. Skip 2 games (a 5 run loss in either skipped game restarts chase) then chase up to 4 games that the system team will win one game. Lay Odds betting strategy is to win 1 unit using Martingale betting strategy. Plus Money betting strategy is to bet 1 unit, then two units, three units, then four units until a chase loss is achieved. Start date: Third Monday after start of season. Two different betting strategies: 1. Lay Odds: Play ML on favorites, +1.5 RL on dogs 2. Plus Money: Play -1.5 RL on favorites, ML on dogs Here are the results for the last three seasons: TOTAL Lay Odds: 278-4 +178 units Plus Money: 262-20 +140 units 2012 Lay Odds: 114-0 +114 units Plus Money: 109-5 +91.7 units 2011 Lay Odds: 88-2 +38 units Plus Money: 81-9 +15.3 units 2010 Lay Odds: 76-2 +26 units Plus Money: 72-6 +33.6 units Series Losses Lay Odds: Approx 25 units Plus Money: 10 units |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#2 |

Danrules24 | |

Veteran |
#3 |

jaime2309 | |

Veteran |
#4 |

Alldaygambler28 | |

Veteran |
#5 |

cdburgess | |

Prospect |
#6QUOTE Originally Posted by flwareagle:Cisco's 5 Run Loss Chase got me to thinking about doing something in reverse. After back testing the last three seasons, here is what I have come up with. 5 Run Win Chase Qualifiers: Any team that has a .525 winning percentage or higher that LOSES a game by 5 or more runs will trigger a chase. Skip 2 games (a 5 run loss in either skipped game restarts chase) then chase up to 4 games that the system team will win one game. Lay Odds betting strategy is to win 1 unit using Martingale betting strategy. Plus Money betting strategy is to bet 1 unit, then two units, three units, then four units until a chase loss is achieved. Start date: Third Monday after start of season. Two different betting strategies: 1. Lay Odds: Play ML on favorites, +1.5 RL on dogs 2. Plus Money: Play -1.5 RL on favorites, ML on dogs Here are the results for the last three seasons: TOTAL Lay Odds: 278-4 +178 units Plus Money: 262-20 +140 units 2012 Lay Odds: 114-0 +114 units Plus Money: 109-5 +91.7 units 2011 Lay Odds: 88-2 +38 units Plus Money: 81-9 +15.3 units 2010 Lay Odds: 76-2 +26 units Plus Money: 72-6 +33.6 units Series Losses Lay Odds: Approx 25 units Plus Money: 10 units Will you be posting throughout the season? |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#7QUOTE Originally Posted by jaime2309:Will you be posting plays? Hadn't thought about it, but I might. |

1958a | |

Prospect |
#8I did a MLB SDQL Query on your system and found different results although still seems to be a winning system.season = 2012 and ppppppo:runs - pppppp:runs >= 5 and ppppp:WP >= 52.5 and playoffs = 0 and p:L and pp:L and ppp:LI understand you consider the winning percentage right after the 5 run loss right? season 2012: total number of games 205 game 1 109-96 average odds -117,3 game 2 53-43 average odds -119,5 game 3 27-16 average odds -106,9 game 4 11-5 average odds -119,5 average losses for a system loss 20,66 units However 2011 season looks ugly with 14 losses tell me if you think there is an error on the query or send me a message to check it further\ regards |

1958a | |

Prospect |
#9 |

Ddubb_Steady | |

Prospect |
#10 |

bruin95 | |

Prospect |
#11QUOTE Originally Posted by season = 2012 and ppppppo:runs - pppppp:runs >= 5 and ppppp:WP >= 52.5 and playoffs = 0 and p:L and pp:L and ppp:LI understand you consider the winning percentage right after the 5 run loss right? season 2012: total number of games 205 game 1 109-96 average odds -117,3 game 2 53-43 average odds -119,5 game 3 27-16 average odds -106,9 game 4 11-5 average odds -119,5 average losses for a system loss 20,66 units However 2011 season looks ugly with 14 losses tell me if you think there is an error on the query or send me a message to check it further\ regards
Did you skip 2 games after the 5 run loss? |

1958a | |

Prospect |
#12I went only as deep as three losses, not four. I rerun the query for four losses and here are the results http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=season+%3D+2011+and+pppppppo%3Aruns+-+ppppppp%3Aruns+%3E%3D+5+and+pppppp%3AWP+%3E%3D+52.5+and+playoffs+%3D+0+and+p%3AL+and+pp%3AL+and+ppp%3AL+and+pppp%3AL&submit=S+D+Q+L+! you can play around with season=2011 to get results for every season. Last year (2012) was good with one system loss One loss on Det Apri 19 the chase start with a 10-3 loss to TEXAS etc for 2011 after 4 game chase on moneyline we have 8 losses (the worst year along with 2006 for 10 losses). |

ERBATIZ | |

Veteran |
#13 |

bruin95 | |

Prospect |
#14 |

Air1 | |

Rookie |
#15 |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#16 |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#17 |

Air1 | |

Rookie |
#18 |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#19 |

Air1 | |

Rookie |
#20 |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#214-22. WAS-A 4-22. STL-A 4-23. ATL-A 4-24. OAK-A 4-24. DET-B 4-26. BOS-A 4-26. COL-A 4-28. CIN-A 4-28. OAK-A 4-29. PIT-C 5-1. ATL-D 5-1. STL-A 5-2. TEX-B 5-3. NYY-B 5-4. KC-A 5-4. COL-A 5-4. BAL-A 5-6. BOS-A 5-9. COL-D 5-10. TEX-A 5-10. BOS-A 5-12. CIN-A 5-13. KC-A 5-14. ATL-C 5-14. WAS-C 5-16. BOS-A 5-17. COL-A 5-17. ARI-A 5-17. CLE-A 5-18. NYY-A 5-18. SF-C 5-22. DET-A 5-22. SF-C 5-24. TEX-A 5-26. BAL-B 5-26. BOS-A 5-27. SF-D 5-27. CLE-C 5-29. NYY-C 5-30. ATL-A 5-31. BAL-A 5-31. CLE-B 6-1. NYY-C 6-1. CIN-A 6-3. ARI-B 6-3. PIT-B 6-4. NYY-A 6-5. BAL-B 6-5. CLE-(pending C bet) 6-6. MIN-A 6-7. TB-A 6-7. ARI-A Today's Plays 6-8. CLE-C bet 6-8. TEX-A bet |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#22CORRECTED RECORD ABOVE: 50-0, 1 open chase I will check to make sure there aren't any others. |

flwareagle | |

Prospect |
#23 |

ERBATIZ | |

Veteran |
#24 |

Air1 | |

Rookie |
#25 |

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