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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Over chase 90-0
flwareagle send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 3/13/2013 1:34:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I think I'll give this a go for the Overs to start the season. Have to do something until the RPI system starts up in May.


Does anyone have the results of the last couple of seasons using the RPI system?
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#27
Posted: 3/13/2013 2:13:39 AM
One thing you guys are not thinking about is the ENORMOUS bankroll you're going to need to do this. 

Let's put this in simple terms.  Let's say you are betting to win just $10 per team.  That would give you a $300 profit in less than a week if every team goes OVER at least once.  Now let's say that, of the 15 opening series, 3 series go UNDER every game.  That's six teams left after 3 games have been played.  You are now chasing 6 TEAMS for a 4th, and possible 5th game.  Now, just to keep it simple, all bets have averaged -110.  You would be laying $101.87 on EACH of the 6 teams  ($611.22 total) just to try and make $60 profit on those 6 teams.  If only 3 hit that 4th game, you're laying $213.93 EACH for 3 teams ($641.79 total) just to make $30 profit.  And this is just for $10 a unit.  Do you really want to risk all that money just for $300?  Not me.  Most people don't even have this amount of bankroll to start.  Good luck to those who try. 
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#28
Posted: 3/13/2013 1:17:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

One thing you guys are not thinking about is the ENORMOUS bankroll you're going to need to do this. 

Let's put this in simple terms.  Let's say you are betting to win just $10 per team.  That would give you a $300 profit in less than a week if every team goes OVER at least once.  Now let's say that, of the 15 opening series, 3 series go UNDER every game.  That's six teams left after 3 games have been played.  You are now chasing 6 TEAMS for a 4th, and possible 5th game.  Now, just to keep it simple, all bets have averaged -110.  You would be laying $101.87 on EACH of the 6 teams  ($611.22 total) just to try and make $60 profit on those 6 teams.  If only 3 hit that 4th game, you're laying $213.93 EACH for 3 teams ($641.79 total) just to make $30 profit.  And this is just for $10 a unit.  Do you really want to risk all that money just for $300?  Not me.  Most people don't even have this amount of bankroll to start.  Good luck to those who try. 

I understand what you are saying, but I have a few points to make. Regarding bankroll, yes you should not do this unless you can absorb the loss. In your scenario, anyone with a $600 or so bankroll shouldn't even consider it for $10 a unit as a 4-5 game chase would be a significant % of bankroll.

Not that your scenario of 3 series starting the year all go under for 3 games can't happen, but it hasn't happened in the last 5 years. In 2012 only 1 team went to 4 games or more, 2011 had 2 teams, and 2010 had 4 teams.

In the 2012 chase if you stopped after 3 games you would have been up $290 on your wins less $82.61 on the 3 game loss at -110 each. Still a decent 3-4 day profit of $207.39 if you use $10 as a unit size. 20.7 units. In 2011 you'd be up $114.78 if you never went to game 4. If you walked after 3 games in 2010, you'd be down $70.44.  

Really though, is this chase any different than the numerous chase systems on here that have you lay big odds on a 3-5 game chase? I like the low or no juice that O/U come with.

If this system worries you, I suggest you don't try my pro football and college football O/U chase thread in the fall. lol. College is a fun 120 or so team chase of up to 6 games.

BOL to you!

 

 

 

 

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#29
Posted: 3/13/2013 1:31:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I understand what you are saying, but I have a few points to make. Regarding bankroll, yes you should not do this unless you can absorb the loss. In your scenario, anyone with a $600 or so bankroll shouldn't even consider it for $10 a unit as a 4-5 game chase would be a significant % of bankroll.

Not that your scenario of 3 series starting the year all go under for 3 games can't happen, but it hasn't happened in the last 5 years. In 2012 only 1 team went to 4 games or more, 2011 had 2 teams, and 2010 had 4 teams.

In the 2012 chase if you stopped after 3 games you would have been up $290 on your wins less $82.61 on the 3 game loss at -110 each. Still a decent 3-4 day profit of $207.39 if you use $10 as a unit size. 20.7 units. In 2011 you'd be up $114.78 if you never went to game 4. If you walked after 3 games in 2010, you'd be down $70.44.  

Really though, is this chase any different than the numerous chase systems on here that have you lay big odds on a 3-5 game chase? I like the low or no juice that O/U come with.

If this system worries you, I suggest you don't try my pro football and college football O/U chase thread in the fall. lol. College is a fun 120 or so team chase of up to 6 games.

BOL to you!

 

 

 

 


You beat me to it.
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#30
Posted: 3/13/2013 2:33:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by flwareagle:


You beat me to it.

Don't get me wrong, Bruin does raise a legit concern for those with a limited bankroll. Any chase system could wipe out a small bankroll.

I moved to Vegas in August and am fortunate that I was able to keep my job and work from home. I fully believe in the axiom that you should never bet what you can't afford to lose, so we paid off our house and managed to come up with a 10k bankroll for my sports betting. Admitedly, I will probably bet much less than most would with a 10k bankroll but that's ok. I'm sure as time goes on I will be more comfortable with bigger bets in relation to bankroll size and increase as needed.

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#31
Posted: 3/13/2013 10:11:57 PM
There is a college football O/U chase system that didn't lose forever. It has fallen on its face the past 3 years or so. It is a 6 game chase that involved the first 6 games of the season. It can be found in this section.

Not to rain on your parade but be very careful. Chasing is not the best way to go but can be profitable if you set parameters, and have the guts to handle the inevitable game 5 or 6.

Good Luck.
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#32
Posted: 3/13/2013 10:32:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Luckydan:

There is a college football O/U chase system that didn't lose forever. It has fallen on its face the past 3 years or so. It is a 6 game chase that involved the first 6 games of the season. It can be found in this section.

Not to rain on your parade but be very careful. Chasing is not the best way to go but can be profitable if you set parameters, and have the guts to handle the inevitable game 5 or 6.

Good Luck.

I tracked it last year in the thread and there was 1 loss, TCU. I said in that thread that I would have stopped a few weeks before that and just walked with a nice profit. Even if played all the way through you would have gone 123-1, up 44.6 units. Yes it does take a big bankroll. 

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#33
Posted: 3/14/2013 1:56:22 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Danrules24]

In 2012 only 1 team went to 4 games or more[/quote]

There were 2 teams (CWS, TEX).  It would be impossible for just one team to be left.  It has to be an even number.

[quote]Really though, is this chase any different than the numerous chase systems on here that have you lay big odds on a 3-5 game chase? I like the low or no juice that O/U come with.[/quote]

It's different because you're chasing 30 teams at once.  I never chase more than 3 things under any system at one time.  And I never chase for more than 3 games.  Just makes more financial sense to me.  I'm in this for the long haul, not to get rich quick.  I'll gladly take a small profit, or a minor ding in bankroll, then have this be the time the system completely fails.  What I'll probably do is pick 3 series, to start, that I feel will have at least one game go over.  After one wins (hopefully), I'll add another series that's still open.  If all goes well, I'll pick up 12 units that way.  Good enough for me after only 4 or 5 days.

 

 

 

 

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#34
Posted: 3/14/2013 10:34:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I tracked it last year in the thread and there was 1 loss, TCU. I said in that thread that I would have stopped a few weeks before that and just walked with a nice profit. Even if played all the way through you would have gone 123-1, up 44.6 units. Yes it does take a big bankroll. 



You were the beneficiary of good numbers. In that chase, a point can make a huge difference over the course of that chase. Also,  there were major concerns on whether to play off board teams that had a circled number. Plus what to do with off weeks. Not to mention approx. 120 teams to play.

Your's is a bit more straight on. It can be a problem if playing a game at 7over -1.40 or 7.5 over -1.10. Which way do you go? Better line or better juice?

Good Luck.
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#35
Posted: 3/14/2013 1:01:34 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Luckydan:



You were the beneficiary of good numbers. In that chase, a point can make a huge difference over the course of that chase. Also,  there were major concerns on whether to play off board teams that had a circled number. Plus what to do with off weeks. Not to mention approx. 120 teams to play.

Your's is a bit more straight on. It can be a problem if playing a game at 7over -1.40 or 7.5 over -1.10. Which way do you go? Better line or better juice?

Good Luck.

I play the O/U totals at -110.

Off weeks and when a DIV 1 team plays a DIV 2 team are no plays, that team stays at whatever status they were the week prior. Same with a Push. It wasn't my system, I just stumbled upon the thread that seemed to die the year before and I tracked it for last year to see how it would do. I would have a hard time betting it all the way to the end, which is why I said in that thread that I would have walked away up way before it got down to playing games 5 and 6. Profit is profit, take it when you can.

 

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#36
Posted: 3/14/2013 1:52:01 PM
While this does take a tremendous bankroll, maybe if you only chase a division or two instead of all of the teams?
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#37
Posted: 3/16/2013 6:21:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Simple concept, at the start of the season do up to a 5 game chase on each team to get one OVER. The last 3 years this went a combined 90-0 (148-2 over 5 years, both losses won on game 6). Pushes are considered a no play

In the last 3 years the results:

A 53-37

B 18-19

C 12-7

D 3-4

E 4-0

Might be a good way to pocket 30 or more units in the first week.


Dan, Great Job!
Do you have g1 to g5 for each year seperately? Thanks
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#38
Posted: 3/16/2013 12:35:34 PM
nice find dan, i'll definitely be on this over chase this season, and maybe even after the all star break.

You should backtest it for NHL too, I bet it works.
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#39
Posted: 3/16/2013 1:00:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hyvong:


Dan, Great Job!
Do you have g1 to g5 for each year seperately? Thanks

2012

A 11-19

B 11-8

C 7-1

D 0-1

E 1-0

2011

A 20-10

B 5-5

C 3-2

D 1-1

E 1-1

2010

A 22-8

B 2-6

C 2-4

D 2-2

E 2-0

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#40
Posted: 3/16/2013 1:42:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

Originally Posted by Danrules24]

In 2012 only 1 team went to 4 games or more[/quote]

There were 2 teams (CWS, TEX).  It would be impossible for just one team to be left.  It has to be an even number.

[quote]Really though, is this chase any different than the numerous chase systems on here that have you lay big odds on a 3-5 game chase? I like the low or no juice that O/U come with.[/quote]

It's different because you're chasing 30 teams at once.  I never chase more than 3 things under any system at one time.  And I never chase for more than 3 games.  Just makes more financial sense to me.  I'm in this for the long haul, not to get rich quick.  I'll gladly take a small profit, or a minor ding in bankroll, then have this be the time the system completely fails.  What I'll probably do is pick 3 series, to start, that I feel will have at least one game go over.  After one wins (hopefully), I'll add another series that's still open.  If all goes well, I'll pick up 12 units that way.  Good enough for me after only 4 or 5 days.

 

 

 

 

Sounds like a solid strategy.

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#41
Posted: 3/16/2013 1:47:28 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

nice find dan, i'll definitely be on this over chase this season, and maybe even after the all star break.

You should backtest it for NHL too, I bet it works.

Just tested for NHL, it works too. 149-1 over the last 5 years with only 14 going to a game 4, only 2 of those to game 5.

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#42
Posted: 3/16/2013 2:06:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Just tested for NHL, it works too. 149-1 over the last 5 years with only 14 going to a game 4, only 2 of those to game 5.


It works for the NBA also.
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#43
Posted: 3/16/2013 2:23:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Just tested for NHL, it works too. 149-1 over the last 5 years with only 14 going to a game 4, only 2 of those to game 5.



how the heck do you test this stuff so fast? what program do you use?
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#44
Posted: 3/16/2013 2:25:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

Originally Posted by Danrules24]

In 2012 only 1 team went to 4 games or more[/quote]

There were 2 teams (CWS, TEX).  It would be impossible for just one team to be left.  It has to be an even number.

[quote]Really though, is this chase any different than the numerous chase systems on here that have you lay big odds on a 3-5 game chase? I like the low or no juice that O/U come with.[/quote]

It's different because you're chasing 30 teams at once.  I never chase more than 3 things under any system at one time.  And I never chase for more than 3 games.  Just makes more financial sense to me.  I'm in this for the long haul, not to get rich quick.  I'll gladly take a small profit, or a minor ding in bankroll, then have this be the time the system completely fails.  What I'll probably do is pick 3 series, to start, that I feel will have at least one game go over.  After one wins (hopefully), I'll add another series that's still open.  If all goes well, I'll pick up 12 units that way.  Good enough for me after only 4 or 5 days.

 

 

 

 


If you dedicate a separate bankroll just for this system, you can bet 1% units and be ok (unless it runs bad of course)

Ex.  Set aside $500 for one week and bet $5 units both ways (over and under...actually, skip the first game and chase 2 units on the opposite result from the first game up to four games.  If it goes 60-0, you will win $150 (30 units).  If it goes 59-1, you will win approximately $100 (59 win units - 39.6 loss units = 19.4 units).  Two or more losses will result in a loss.  If you only bet one side (Overs), then you cannot absorb even 1 loss and still make a profit.
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#45
Posted: 3/16/2013 2:28:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:



how the heck do you test this stuff so fast? what program do you use?

These O/U systems at the start of the season and after the ASB are really easy to do fast.  You can do a whole season in under 10 minutes.
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#46
Posted: 3/16/2013 2:32:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by flwareagle:


If you dedicate a separate bankroll just for this system, you can bet 1% units and be ok (unless it runs bad of course)

Ex.  Set aside $500 for one week and bet $5 units both ways (over and under...actually, skip the first game and chase 2 units on the opposite result from the first game up to four games.  If it goes 60-0, you will win $150 (30 units).  If it goes 59-1, you will win approximately $100 (59 win units - 39.6 loss units = 19.4 units).  Two or more losses will result in a loss.  If you only bet one side (Overs), then you cannot absorb even 1 loss and still make a profit.

Brainfart Correction:  if it goes 60-0, you win $300 ($5 x 60)
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#47
Posted: 3/18/2013 1:17:19 AM
IS this system only to be used for the start of the season? or can it be used properly in 5 game sets throughout a season for each team?
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Posted: 3/18/2013 2:44:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by louris54:

IS this system only to be used for the start of the season? or can it be used properly in 5 game sets throughout a season for each team?


at the start of the season, but for MLB dan mentioned it worked well too using it after the all star break as the next start point.
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#49
Posted: 3/19/2013 12:17:49 PM
I am confused about just one thing.  Let's take a hypothetical Reds v. Indians series, game 1.  The GAME total is 8.  The TEAM totals are 5 for the Reds and 3 for the Tribe.  Are we betting to go over the GAME total (that's one bet) or EACH TEAM's total (2 separate bets)?
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Posted: 3/19/2013 1:38:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iamnomad:

I am confused about just one thing.  Let's take a hypothetical Reds v. Indians series, game 1.  The GAME total is 8.  The TEAM totals are 5 for the Reds and 3 for the Tribe.  Are we betting to go over the GAME total (that's one bet) or EACH TEAM's total (2 separate bets)?

Betting on the GAME total, not each team.  If you only bet one way (overs), then you bet two units (1 for each team).  If you bet both ways, then skip the first game and bet the opposite of the game one result.  So, if game 1 goes under, then bet four units on over (2 for each team) in game 2.  Chase up to three or four more games, depending on choice.  If you skip game 1 rather than bet both sides of game 1, it saves 2 units on a series loss per team.   A series win always wins 2 units per team.
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