MLB Over chase 90-0

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Over chase 90-0
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/11/2013 11:57:00 PM

Simple concept, at the start of the season do up to a 5 game chase on each team to get one OVER. The last 3 years this went a combined 90-0 (148-2 over 5 years, both losses won on game 6). Pushes are considered a no play

In the last 3 years the results:

A 53-37

B 18-19

C 12-7

D 3-4

E 4-0

Might be a good way to pocket 30 or more units in the first week.

cdburgess PM cdburgess
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Posted: 3/12/2013 12:35:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Simple concept, at the start of the season do up to a 5 game chase on each team to get one OVER. The last 3 years this went a combined 90-0 (148-2 over 5 years, both losses won on game 6). Pushes are considered a no play

In the last 3 years the results:

A 53-37

B 18-19

C 12-7

D 3-4

E 4-0

Might be a good way to pocket 30 or more units in the first week.


What's your bet unit?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 12:43:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cdburgess:


What's your bet unit?

I'm pretty conservative and use only 1% of my bankroll as a unit. I guess it's whatever you are comfortable with. If all teams come through, I'm up 30% on my bankroll in a week. Not too bad.

bruin95 PM bruin95
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Posted: 3/12/2013 2:11:52 AM

So are you putting 2 units on each game involving teams that have yet to go over?

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 2:22:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

So are you putting 2 units on each game involving teams that have yet to go over?

Yes one for each team.

flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 3/12/2013 2:36:27 AM
In 2012, if you chased first five games for each team to get one OVER, it went 30-0.

If you chased first five games for each team to get one UNDER, it also went 30-0.

After the All-Star break, the OVER chase went 29-1.

After the All-Star break, the UNDER chase went 30-0.

All combined went 119-1 last year.
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 3/12/2013 2:43:04 AM
St. Louis pushed their first game after the ASB and then had 7 UNDERS in a row before an OVER.  That was the only loss.  That one loss is equal to approximately 50 units.

The return last year would be just under +70 units.
jaime2309 PM jaime2309
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Posted: 3/12/2013 8:41:00 AM
Interesting. Anyone really going to play this?
JVHeel PM JVHeel
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Posted: 3/12/2013 8:56:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by flwareagle:

In 2012, if you chased first five games for each team to get one OVER, it went 30-0.

If you chased first five games for each team to get one UNDER, it also went 30-0.

After the All-Star break, the OVER chase went 29-1.

After the All-Star break, the UNDER chase went 30-0.

All combined went 119-1 last year.

Any info on the UNDER chase for the past several years?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 2:40:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JVHeel:


Any info on the UNDER chase for the past several years?

There were 2 losses in 2011 and 1 in 2009. So, 147-3 to start the year for UNDERS over the last 5 years compared to 148-2 for the OVERS. The Mets had a 12 game over streak to start 2011 with a Push in there.

Alldaygambler28 PM Alldaygambler28
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Posted: 3/12/2013 2:42:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by flwareagle:

St. Louis pushed their first game after the ASB and then had 7 UNDERS in a row before an OVER.  That was the only loss.  That one loss is equal to approximately 50 units.

The return last year would be just under +70 units.


How would that be possible?  You can't play both at the same time and profit.  You would have to start with either the overs or unders then switch to the other.  So you wouldn't be at 70 units. 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 2:53:57 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:



How would that be possible?  You can't play both at the same time and profit.  You would have to start with either the overs or unders then switch to the other.  So you wouldn't be at 70 units. 

What if you bet overs at one book and unders at another? Both chases could hit. You'd lose money on game 1 though since you are betting both sides. Maybe the play is bet the opposite chase after game 1??? I think I'll stick with OVERS from start of season. Nice and easy.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 3:30:07 PM

After the All-star break Overs are 89-1 for the last 3 years with STL as the loss last year as previously mentioned.

Only 10 of these 90 chases went to 4 games  with only 4 of those 10 going to game 5.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 3:31:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jaime2309:

Interesting. Anyone really going to play this?

I think I'll give this a go for the Overs to start the season. Have to do something until the RPI system starts up in May.

JVHeel PM JVHeel
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Posted: 3/12/2013 5:40:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

There were 2 losses in 2011 and 1 in 2009. So, 147-3 to start the year for UNDERS over the last 5 years compared to 148-2 for the OVERS. The Mets had a 12 game over streak to start 2011 with a Push in there.

Thanks, Dan!
JVHeel PM JVHeel
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Posted: 3/12/2013 5:43:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

After the All-star break Overs are 89-1 for the last 3 years with STL as the loss last year as previously mentioned.

Only 10 of these 90 chases went to 4 games  with only 4 of those 10 going to game 5.


Do you know how many of the opening season OVER chases went to 4 and 5 games?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 5:54:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JVHeel:


Do you know how many of the opening season OVER chases went to 4 and 5 games?

Over the last 3 years 7 games went to game 4, 4 of those to game 5, all winners.

JVHeel PM JVHeel
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Posted: 3/12/2013 7:12:51 PM
Thanks. Giving very serious consideration to this one...
cdburgess PM cdburgess
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Posted: 3/12/2013 9:48:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I think I'll give this a go for the Overs to start the season. Have to do something until the RPI system starts up in May.


What's the RPI system?
cjm2008 PM cjm2008
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Posted: 3/12/2013 9:57:19 PM
Are you increasing your bet 1 unit each time you chase a game?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 10:14:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cdburgess:


What's the RPI system?

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101307405&page=1

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 10:15:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by cjm2008:

Are you increasing your bet 1 unit each time you chase a game?

Yes, make up what you lost plus 1 unit.

cdburgess PM cdburgess
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Posted: 3/12/2013 10:34:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101307405&page=1


I want in on this when you start please!
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 3/12/2013 10:43:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cdburgess:


I want in on this when you start please!

Not my system. It is Bettor2Win running the system, I was just a happy follower.

flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 3/13/2013 1:23:43 AM
I was in the middle of back testing 2011 when I got to the Mets.  I stopped and went to work.

Still, good find Dan!  I am definitely going to use some version of this this year.  Thanks.
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