2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM
RalphyBoy PM RalphyBoy
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quote#101
Posted: 12/31/2012 6:04:55 PM
Northwestern (-2) for us fools that didn't play it sooner. Does this change the value much?
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#102
Posted: 12/31/2012 7:31:18 PM
I'm playing a small bet on CLEMSON +7.5, bought the hook. 



gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#103
Posted: 12/31/2012 7:35:43 PM
Changes from red to blue:
NW.....-2.......7............8...........NW +5...+6
hyvong PM hyvong
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quote#104
Posted: 12/31/2012 11:58:49 PM
gratefulbets, please check your message. Happy New Year 2013!!!
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quote#105
Posted: 1/1/2013 2:28:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

I double checked those #'s above (calculated at 1am, haha) and found one error, corrected below, and I also looked at +3 and above net value for last year and this year. Here are the comparisons: #'s in parenthesis are mid way through bowl season.

                        Group "A"            Group "B"            "A" and "B" 
                                                                                  (same team)

2011: +3>=   19-6  (11-3)          14-10 (8-4)           9-2  (5-0)     

2012: +3>=   (6-10)  9 left          (10-4) 10 left        (5-3)  7 left

2011: +7>=   12-3  (7-1)            10-6  (5-2)             5-1  (4-0)

2012: +7>=   (4-6)  6 left            (6-1)  7 left            2-0  3 left

Update:

2012: +3>=   (6-10)  9 left          (10-4) 10 left        (5-3)  7 left
12-31:           (2-1)    6 left           (2-1)     7 left        (2-1)  4 left

2012: +7>=   (4-6)   6 left             (6-1)   7 left       (2-0)  3 left
12-31:           (0-1)   5 left             (1-0)   6 left       (0-0)  3 left


RalphyBoy PM RalphyBoy
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quote#106
Posted: 1/1/2013 3:23:56 PM
3 team parlay...bam
hyvong PM hyvong
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quote#107
Posted: 1/1/2013 3:34:09 PM
Great Job!!!
Fanch PM Fanch
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quote#108
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:58:57 PM
Wow! Thank You so much Grateful Bets! 3-0 sweep today on 3 of our 4 biggest games, and hit the parlay! TYTYTY, and Happy New Year!
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#109
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:36:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

WIN...
UT......-10
One down, and many more to go...I just flew back from MGM Vegas where I made my Bowl wagers...
UlLaf -5.5...W
Rice +1......W
OkSt -17....W
NW +2.5....W
Mi +5.5 .....W

3 team parlay: pays 6-1...W
Rice +1
OkSt -17
NW +2.5

CMi +175...W
Glad some of you did well with these red/green higher value plays. The blue plays did not fair as well as last year but still did 7-4, or 8-4, depending on your line.
I'm worn out with some of these close covers. Mi had a chance to win SU but just couldn't finish some sacks. I will also point out that Fresno was only 1/2 point too much to qualify for a red play, so I lucked out there. And CMi should not have been a play as I noticed I made a clerical error after the bet, so that was a lucky ML gift.

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#110
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:46:11 PM
9-5 on games thus far
 
  1. Utah St
  2. BYU
  3. ULL
  4. Fresno St
  5. Central Michigan
  6. SJ State
  7. UL Monroe
  8. Rutgers
  9. Rice
  10. Vandy
  11. Ga Tech
  12. Iowa St
  13. Ok State
  14. NorthWestern
  15. Michigan
  16. Florida
  17. Clemson (added)

Lowest Net "A" value

  1. Nevada
  2. Central Florida
  3. Boise St
  4. Duke
  5. Minnesota
  6. Texas
  7. TCU
  8. LSU
  9. Georgia
  10. Stanford
  11. Oregon
  12. Tex AM
  13. Pittsburgh
  14. Notre Dame

 

 

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#111
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:47:36 PM
What do you have for the Playoffs this weekend buddy
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#112
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:26:36 PM
Here is the list of plays, so far, including some line changes that had an effect on the net value.

UtSt -10 W

BYU -3 W

ULL -6 W 

Frs -12.5 L
      -12 L

SJSt -7 W

ULM -7 L

Rut +2.5 L

Rice +1 W

Van -7 W


gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#113
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:27:05 PM
continued...

GaTc +10 W
           +8 no play

IaSt pk L

Clem +7 W
         +5 no play

OkSt  -16.5 W

NW +2 W
       pk W

Mi +5.5 W
     +5 P

Fl -13.5 ?

gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#114
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:30:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:



BTW, while I was researching these games, I ran another "system" that I had recently used, and similar to my NFL picks...here are the picks:

UtSt  W
CMi  W
Cin   W
Bay  W
Rice  W
Syr   W
Van  W
Tulsa  W
Stan  W
ArSt

Only Tulsa is conflicting with a system pick, but it's a blue pick. It will be interesting to see if the remaining picks do as well.
GL
Froggy48 PM Froggy48
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quote#115
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:34:44 PM
that NFL system you utulized then for cfb has been undefeated!!!awesome job!!!TY!!
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#116
Posted: 1/1/2013 10:48:05 PM
glefkb01... remember, from my first post, the blue plays were not the highest value plays, and therefore, I recommended to not play any for serious money, only red and green plays. My only real bets were for $1k each, and the 3 team parlay that paid $1.2k, and the $100 ML that paid $175. I did play some of the blue picks for like $25, but that was mostly on that second system through internet book.
I'm definitely putting a few bucks on ArSt, since that system is now 9-0. I'm going to review the rest of the bowl games to see if there is anything more to play. I did put a small play on NIl for +15, hook, because it looked like a high #...it's now half-time.
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#117
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:20:25 PM
Also, as I'm trying to learn and share the nuances of this system with who's ever interested, the value of group "A" versus "B" has completely reversed this year from last year. That surprised me, but that is also the reason why I only play a team that has at least +7 value from both groups. 


NFL playoff picks coming soon. 
bruin95 PM bruin95
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quote#118
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:07:42 AM
I wasn't as fortunate as you guys on the Michigan play.  Only got it at +4.5.  Not only that, I played 3 trifecta boxes at various tracks, hit them all, and still lost money.  Just not my day.
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#119
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:23:12 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by gratefulbets]
Update:
                        
        Group "A"            Group "B"        "A" and "B" 
                                                       (same team)
2012: +3>=   (6-10)  9 left          (10-4) 10 left        (5-3)  7 left
12-31:           (2-1)    6 left           (2-1)     7 left        (2-1)  4 left
01-01:           (3-0)    3 left           (4-0)     3 left        (3-0   1 left       

2012: +7>=   (4-6)   6 left             (6-1)   7 left        (2-0)  3 left
12-31:           (0-1)   5 left             (1-0)   6 left        (0-0)  3 left
01-01:           (3-0)   2 left             (4-0)   2 left        (3-0)  -------
                                                                  Pitts
                                                                  ArSt
Because  group "B" +7 net value is now 11-1 for the season, I feel confident that these 2 games should be considered.
GL
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#120
Posted: 1/2/2013 2:10:04 AM
Correction to post #109:


"Glad some of you did well with these red/green higher value plays. The blue plays did not fair as well as last year but still did 7-4, or 8-4, depending on your line."

Should read: 5-4, or 6-4 (Clemson +6, or higher).
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#121
Posted: 1/2/2013 6:36:17 AM

Sorry...thought i saw you read, you play the "A" values that were lower.     NO worrries... SYSTEM IS VIRTUALLY FLAWLESS.   Had a great bowl season once again.  

Only 2 more games to go

Arkansas State

and

Florida

Air1 PM Air1
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quote#122
Posted: 1/2/2013 10:14:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

I wasn't as fortunate as you guys on the Michigan play.  Only got it at +4.5. 


I feel you bro. I got my play in an hour before kickoff at 4.5 Didn't think line would move back in our favor

@gratefulbets -  This system of yours is it for closing lines or best line you could find until the game starts?
i.e. gatch & clem were both plays (and won!) at one point, but ended up no plays before gametime. 
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#123
Posted: 1/2/2013 12:05:06 PM
glefkb01...it might have been confusing because the A group never did well, but B did. Remember, these last 2 plays are just from B group only, which has done well, but there is no guarantee!! But I like ArSt a little more because it is already a pick by my other system. 

Air1...the plays are picked by the net value criteria which is a function of the team's gross value added to the line. So whenever the line moves to the number that creates the net value of +7 (or whatever number you want to use for your criteria) then it's a play. As some lines move during the weeks of the bowls, some games, like Clemson, become a play. The point of this system is that when a game meets the threshold and you lock in your position, you have the confidence that it's a high value play. 
I don't play large bets online, only in Vega$, so once I fly r.t. to Vega$, I don't have the convenience of adding plays as the bowl lines change.
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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quote#124
Posted: 1/2/2013 12:14:47 PM
I feel you bro. I got my play in an hour before kickoff at 4.5 Didn't think line would move back in our favor 

Interestingly, that was not a high value play (+7) at +4.5. Both of my A and B groups had Mi at +2, and 2 + 4.5 = +6.5, not +7. Had you bought the line to +5, you would have had the minimum +7 net value, and you would have pushed.  
Luckydan PM Luckydan
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quote#125
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:20:33 PM
Congrats on a wonderful bowl season. It's been fun tailing you.

Ark St or Fla? Which of the two would you place higher value with?

Thanks.

Good Luck.
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