2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM
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Posted: 12/29/2012 4:34:07 PM
Thanks everyone. Rice won big, and they could've won even more. They were my top play, so I really needed that win.

2012
Green: 1-0...all games completed                 

Red only: 1-0...3 games left                           

Blue only: 3-3...4 games left                           

Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 12/29/2012 7:01:39 PM
Wasn't Fresno St -11, -11.5 and -12  a red selection? I know I played them that way because of post #33.

Thanks.

Good Luck.


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Posted: 12/29/2012 10:05:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Wasn't Fresno St -11, -11.5 and -12  a red selection? I know I played them that way because of post #33.

Thanks.

Good Luck.



Yes, technically it is at those lines, but I got it at -12.5.

So far, this system has not fared as well as last year. All of the other categories are weak, as well.  If it goes really great for the balance of the bowls, then all is well. But I don't guarantee that it will do as well as I'd hoped. I'm very skeptical about the next 3 red plays.   

Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 12/29/2012 10:10:31 PM
I appreciate your honesty. Why the skepticism on the 3 red plays?

Thanks.
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/30/2012 3:51:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

I appreciate your honesty. Why the skepticism on the 3 red plays?

Thanks.

Good question. It got me thinking and researching last years results today, and here is what I found.
Last year the "A" group was 7-1 at this half way point, ending the season at 12-3. Currently, the "A" group is 4-6 with 6 games remaining. 
Last year at this point group "B" was 5-2, ending at 10-6. And currently, it is 4-1, with 7 games remaining.
So that's the reason for having 2 independent groups agree on the final pick. Only one group needs to do well at +7 net value, and the better group may switch from year to year.

BTW, while I was researching these games, I ran another "system" that I had recently used, and similar to my NFL picks...here are the picks:

UtSt
CMi
Cin
Bay
Rice
Syr
Van
Tulsa
Stan
ArSt

Only Tulsa is conflicting with a system pick, but it's a blue pick. It will be interesting to see if the remaining picks do as well.
GL
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Posted: 12/30/2012 4:19:20 AM
NOTE: The above reference to groups "A", and "B", are for their individual categories of +7 net value points, or more.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:32:50 AM
UtSt
CMi
Cin
Bay
Rice
Syr
Van
Tulsa
Stan
ArSt
 
Yeah, I was really pumped for this years bowl games and overrall we are doing well, little more sketchy than last year but MUCH APPRECIATED NONE THE LESS
Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:48:06 AM
I think the last game is Arkansas St.

Good Luck.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 11:59:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

I think the last game is Arkansas St.

Good Luck.

Yes, unless he's psychic.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 1:11:20 PM
I double checked those #'s above (calculated at 1am, haha) and found one error, corrected below, and I also looked at +3 and above net value for last year and this year. Here are the comparisons: #'s in parenthesis are mid way through bowl season.

                        Group "A"            Group "B"            "A" and "B" 
                                                                                  (same team)

2011: +3>=   19-6  (11-3)          14-10 (8-4)           9-2  (5-0)     

2012: +3>=   (6-10)  9 left          (10-4) 10 left        (5-3)  7 left

2011: +7>=   12-3  (7-1)            10-6  (5-2)             5-1  (4-0)

2012: +7>=   (4-6)  6 left            (6-1)  7 left            2-0  3 left

Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 12/30/2012 4:36:47 PM
Good stuff. Iowa St and Tulsa are both blue selections in your various systems. Which way do you lean today?

Thanks.

Good Luck.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 12/30/2012 4:45:09 PM
CIN -2.5

IND +7.0

NYG -7.0

CAR +5.0

DEN -15.5

SEA -10

MIN +3.5

NE -10

WAS -3.0

Fanch PM Fanch
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Posted: 12/30/2012 5:13:49 PM
So, Arkansas State is a "red" play? I missed 1 )
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Posted: 12/30/2012 7:20:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Good stuff. Iowa St and Tulsa are both blue selections in your various systems. Which way do you lean today?

Thanks.

Good Luck.

I always lean to my system, but you know, it's now 3-3 on blue picks.  Perhaps it gets back on track. Maybe just leave it alone?
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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:09:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fanch:

So, Arkansas State is a "red" play? I missed 1 )

No, not a red play, it's not part of the original system, it's another system...read post # 80.
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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:12:22 PM
C'mon, glefkb01, bring that sweet behind in here and update the results!
supergoku PM supergoku
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Posted: 12/30/2012 11:34:29 PM
With the line changing for Georgia Tech and Iowa State games, I don't think they will be in blue category, right ?
gotnogame1 PM gotnogame1
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Posted: 12/31/2012 1:14:48 AM
Your efforts and sharing of the data are sincerely appreciated.  Great job.    
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Posted: 12/31/2012 3:09:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by supergoku:

With the line changing for Georgia Tech and Iowa State games, I don't think they will be in blue category, right ?

Yes, you are correct. The net value is reduced to below the threshold of +3 points. Thanks for pointing that out. 
Looking over the remaining games, the only change in spread that makes a crucial difference is Clemson: LSU from -3.5 to -7 makes Clemson a blue play.
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Posted: 12/31/2012 3:19:01 AM
Line changes at these games creates new net values:

USC...-7.......6............5............GaTc +1...+2

IaSt....-2........9............5...........IaSt +7...+3

LSU...-7.......2...........3.............Clem +5...+4
 
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 12/31/2012 9:18:15 AM
8-1  NFL    

DOES YOUR PICS GO FOR PLAYOFFS TOO?
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Posted: 12/31/2012 12:14:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

8-1  NFL    

DOES YOUR PICS GO FOR PLAYOFFS TOO?

Yep
Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 12/31/2012 12:18:13 PM
Belated congrats on your NFL selections. It's like having Monday's sports page on Sunday morning.

Continued success.


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Posted: 12/31/2012 2:32:13 PM
I'm placing a very small bet on Tulsa.
Blue picks have not been great, and IaSt has some injuries, RB, QB, and Tulsa is picked by my alternate system (post #80).
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quote#100
Posted: 12/31/2012 3:42:13 PM
IaSt's backup QB...only played in last game, but looks damn good:

Datevs.ScoreLineO/U YdsComp%Y/ATD/INT
11/17/2012@ KANSW 51-23W -3.5O 45.5 25085.29.34/0
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