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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: What should I do?
ChuckyCheez send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
ChuckyCheez
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#1
Posted: 12/14/2012 5:09:10 AM

Ok guys I am having a personal dilemma.  Do you know the old saying that if anyone found a system that consistently wins every year that they wouldn't share it?  Well I have found a database that has selected picks, that have hit 58-64% the last 4 years.  There were a minimum of 120-150 plays every year too. No chasing, no progression, just straight ATS plays. 

So where do I go from here?  Do I simply just bet them under the radar and keep the secret to myself, or do I sell the picks?  Obviously a system that wins at that rate is worth possible hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars. 

If I bet the picks myself, I have no risk of people finding out my source, and somehow ruining my money train.  The problem is that I have limited funds to wager with at this point in my life.  Between living expenses and other various bills, I just don't have the capital to make the money I could be making with a larger bankroll.

What I do know is this.  It isn't about how many units a system won in a particular season.  A capper could go out of his mind and win 50 base units, or even more.  It is all about consistency.  There is a very small group of individuals in this country that can turn a profit every year.  I think that 98% of those people do not sell their picks.  They do not want any added heat on themselves, or become linked to their consistent winning.  I could bet these picks (with a large bankroll) for MAYBE $3,000-$5000 each, and win $75,000+ per season.  On the other hand, I could probably sell the picks to individuals or groups that bet $10,000 or more in Vegas.  I would be able to basically name my price to those people. 

I am sick of seeing all these touts try to sell 100 dime locks of the year.  Most of us know that most of these people simply come and go.  If a person came by with documented proof of an average 60%+ over 4 seasons, well let's just say that people would be lining up to buy those picks.

What would you do if you were me?  Please, serious responses only.  This is truly a crossroads in my sports betting life, and I want to hear what some of you guys have to say. 

 

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hyvong send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
hyvong
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#2
Posted: 12/14/2012 7:01:35 AM
This room is for people with system(s) that to share with others. it is not to discuss your personal business as a tout to become millionaire.  
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ChuckyCheez send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
ChuckyCheez
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#3
Posted: 12/14/2012 9:41:22 AM
Im not selling anything in here.  I am throwing out a question to get feedback.  Didn't know it was your job to troll the boards and be the covers sheriff.  If you don't have something useful to say then you can go elsewhere.  I would never try to sell anything on here.  I know that would get me banned.  


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Enjoi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 12/14/2012 10:37:32 AM
I think you should share your system with us. At the end of the day we all just average Joe's struggling to beat the books so why not lend each other a helping hand. 
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#5
Posted: 12/14/2012 12:44:40 PM

Regardless if you share your system or not, I would bet on my own rather than try and sell to the big bettors. If you have to start with a smaller bankroll, so be it. If you are profitable the bankroll will grow each year and you can increase your bets.

150 bets at 60% wins is a 90-60 record. At $1000 a game that's a profit of $24,000 (assuming a -110 line for ATS).

If you don't have that kind of bankroll, maybe bring in a partner to help finance. Plenty of ways to be creative. Trying to sell a system to $10k bettors is not going to be easy. Guys that can afford that much tend to do their own handicapping and it will be difficult to convince enough of them that your system is superior, especially if your just some guy with a system (no offense).

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DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 12/14/2012 2:01:54 PM

I say share it....that's just me though.  I like to share

 

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ChuckyCheez send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
ChuckyCheez
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#7
Posted: 12/14/2012 5:56:03 PM

Dan I agree that getting high rollers to buy the system would be a bit tricky, but not impossible.  If you look at the data as a prospective buyer, you would be skeptical because those are just numbers.  On the other hand if it goes 60% again this year, that is 5 years in a row of 59%+.  That should be enough to peak the interest of some friends with large bankrolls.  So I mean, this year it may be hard to sell to high rollers, but next year it would sell itself.  All I know is if Brandon Lang can sell a year of his crap for $500, someone with statistical data averaging 60% over 5 years can sell it for AT LEAST that much.  I suppose it all starts with how it goes this year. 

I want to make it clear that I am not trying to sell anything in this forum.  I do not want PMs regarding its sale, or anything related to it.  I definitely do not want to get banned.  I just wanted to hear some feedback.

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1958a
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#8
Posted: 12/14/2012 6:11:17 PM
I say keep it for yourself!

But you can always throw some picks here just for a couple of weeks to see how it goes....

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ChuckyCheez send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#9
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:18:34 AM
I have decided to post as many of the plays as I can through the month of January.  Hopefully I don't make a fool of myself and go 50% or something like that.  I fully expect to hit at least 58%, though 60% is the real goal.  

I tallied the numbers up and over the last 3 seasons + the current season...all of the qualifying plays in the system are 796-494.  That comes out to 61.7%.  All straight plays.  I could take out the least effective sub system, and that would bring the record to 616-365 (62.8%).

I mean guys, I almost think it is a no brainer to double dip the profits on this one.  I could either sell it at a low monthly rate of maybe $50 and hope to get the volume, or price it around $149 a month and only have to get 1/3 of the sales.  

I know everyone looks at these guys selling picks as scum, but if they are consistently winning, could you knock the hustle?  Once again I am not trying to sell anyone on here the picks, so please don't say that is what I am trying to do.  

I would love some more discussion on this topic though.  Thoughts and strategies to maximize the profits.  Perhaps a specific type of money management.  At the moment I make every play at 1 unit.
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jay1234 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 12/27/2012 9:44:09 AM
the problem is there 1 million touts and if its so good  how dont u have any money u should have 24000 and if i  had a system i would not sell it
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#11
Posted: 12/27/2012 9:48:07 AM
and when you sell your picks to the people in las vegas and start losing u will be in the desert
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ChuckyCheez send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#12
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:06:30 PM
I haven't been betting the system for 4 years.  I compiled that data from back testing.  Yea there are definitely a lot of touts out there, but that is the how it goes in a highly profitable market.  Plenty of market share left.  

Are you suggesting that there are hundreds of unsuccessful touts buried in the desert?   
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MITkid send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#13
Posted: 12/27/2012 5:52:42 PM
I know what you are saying is true because I am doing it now. I obviously don't know the specifics of your system but I can offer advice.

Keep your mouth shut.

Sometimes the cash alone is not enough. I have had to deal with years of my parents looking down on me after school for "wasting my degree". To me, seeking validation is part of why I started. Beating sports is hard and I wanted to prove to everyone it can be done, in addition to the cash of course. As you get older, you start to care less about what others think. Now it's all about the cash and the freedom.

I don't know your reasons to share your system, but I can promise you it's a bad idea. It will only get exploited to the point where the books will catch up and your advantage will be nullified.

A good friend of mine from Calgary, I am sure you know him but I won't say his name, had destroyed the books for years. He made the mistake of sharing his system with his runners. They sold it to other high rollers and pretty soon his edge of 10% was reduced to a few %. He still wins but had to reduce his lifestyle and start over again. DON'T TRUST ANYBODY.

Keep your mouth shut. Pat yourself on the back and keep betting. Get a second or third job to supplement your bankroll so you can increase your unit size. Keep compounding that unit size.

I would spread your money out as well and rotate locals, and spread out your bets over a few online books. If you can, make friends with Canadians. You get my drift. 

Do yourself a favour as well and PLAN ahead because you will get a visit eventually from the IRS. Have a personal business and make some websites or sell some "consulting advice". 

If you think winning at sports is hard just wait till the IRS asks you how you were able to pay for your house without a "job".

Don't ever give away your advantage.

GL
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Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#14
Posted: 12/28/2012 1:37:55 AM
something that hits around 60% for the past 4 seasons, is impressive but you should back test more years.  Can it hit 60% for te past 20 years?


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ChuckyCheez send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#15
Posted: 12/28/2012 8:36:30 PM
MITKid

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