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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL 2012 handicapping strategy / Matchup Rating System
nghia1973
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#26
Posted: 11/21/2012 8:18:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

1st Half 'strong' Leans

NFL Thursday, November 22, 2012

Detroit Lions +3.5  EVEN

Dallas Cowboys -2  EVEN

N.Y. Jets +4.5  -110

 


Just to clarify.  We wait until 10 before kick-off and if the line changes from these lines you have, then it's a no play?
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sports_Network
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#27
Posted: 11/22/2012 7:30:35 AM

Today's action, 11/22/12 Qualifying MRS [MARGINAL] handicaps

Official Projections:

Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys -2.5* / -125  2.5units

Dallas Cowboys -155 ML  3.1units

Dallas Cowboys -2  1st Half /  EVEN  2units

 

*  -3 @ 110 / take the 'hook' [0.5] @ -125 plus

total investment: 7.6units /  Maximum ROI: +6units

_____________________________________________________

MoneyLine: WINNING-PERCENTAGE [leans]

HOUSTON TEXANS 78.05% vs DETROIT LIONS 66.72%

N.E. PATRIOTS 86.33% vs N.Y. JETS 38.2%

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#28
Posted: 11/22/2012 7:51:55 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by nghia1973:


Just to clarify.  We wait until 10 before kick-off and if the line changes from these lines you have, then it's a no play?

the closer to kick-off, the advantage to line movement/balance becomes prevalent to the capper, however; this may work as a deterrent, (the balance may move in the opposite prescribed direction) where as taking the 'earliest' line could be advantageous, if your book is not geared to the NFL, and does not "lay-off" balance, then you have no alternative, other than to submit; or use a bookmaker who caters to the NFL exclusively. It's never "no play" it's when to play; which is the sole responsibility of the handicapper at large.... may your NFL Thursday be prosperous, and rewarding..the best in your winning direction.

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#29
Posted: 11/25/2012 4:50:58 AM

Thursday> Redskins vs Cowboys [L]

Loss assessment:

The Cowboys loss circles the game, and qualifies next Sundays home game vs Philadelphia Eagles as a 'Cross-out' handicap MM; the objective: a) to recapture the initial total investment [7.6units] and regain the cappers proposed ROI [6units] > 13.6units is the unit equation connected to a Cowboys WIN, or LOSS when the final decision by the capper is made; with the clear understanding that the 'crossout' formula of MM/RECOVERY can only be initiated by the Cowboys vs Eagles (12/02/12) Which in return will turn Thursdays (11/22) 'loss' into a 'win' with a +6units ROI plus an additional +4units for the in game (win) wager; bringing the Cowboys loss on Thursday, to a +10units on Sunday (02) vs the Eagles...

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#30
Posted: 11/25/2012 8:06:46 AM

NFL Sunday, November 25th, 2012 [MRS handicapping strategy]

Today's [official] 'action' plays/projections/MRS-qualifiers:

Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 /-130  2.6units | -345 ML 3.5units

Pittsburgh Steelers PK / EVEN @ Cleveland Browns  4units

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts -2.5 /-110   4.4units

Atlanta Falcons @ T.B. Buccaneers +2.5 /-110  4.4units

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears -145 ML  4.3units

Baltimore Ravens PK /-105 @ S.D. Chargers  2.1units

S.F. 49ers @ N.O. Saints +2.5 /-110  2.2units

St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals PK /-110  2.2units

G.B. Packers +3.5 /-115 @ N.Y. Giants  2.3units

Denver Broncos -505 ML @ K.C. Chiefs  5.1units

MRS Performance Investment: 37.1units/10games, eleven wagers

Maxx ROI: 28units (11-0)

 

*all lines are justified at the time of posting/publishing (Sunday AM) by CantorLV SportBooks...Line Movements,discussions, and 'late' additions will be updated aprx 30 minutes before Kick-off.

 

*MRS/NFL handicapping strategy, concept, line-movement/availability information, discussion; is welcomed, and appreciated with value....

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#31
Posted: 11/25/2012 11:41:45 AM
with APRX 1.5hrs before Kick-off, the majority of Books have the Colts set at [-2 @ -110] meaning; the 'hook's available [-1.5 @ -125]
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#32
Posted: 11/26/2012 5:28:03 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

NFL Sunday, November 25th, 2012 [MRS handicapping strategy]

Today's [official] 'action' plays/projections/MRS-qualifiers

 YESTERDAYS  RESULTS:

Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 /-130  2.6units | -345 ML 3.5units [WIN] [WIN]

Pittsburgh Steelers PK / EVEN @ Cleveland Browns  4units [LOSS]

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts -2.5/-110   4.4units [WIN]

Atlanta Falcons @ T.B. Buccaneers +1.5 /-110  4.4units [WIN]

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears -185 ML  4.3units [WIN]

Baltimore Ravens PK /-105 @ S.D. Chargers  2.1units [WIN]

S.F. 49ers @ N.O. Saints +2.5 /-110  2.2units [LOSS]

St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals PK /-110  2.2units [LOSS]

G.B. Packers +3.5 /-115 @ N.Y. Giants  2.3units [LOSS]

Denver Broncos -505 ML @ K.C. Chiefs  5.1units [WIN]

  results:  7-4

 

 

*All lines are justified at the time of posting/publishing (Sunday AM) by CantorLV SportBooks...Line Movements,discussions, and 'late' additions will be updated aprx 30 minutes before Kick-off.

 

 

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#33
Posted: 11/27/2012 6:30:16 AM

MNF [11/26/12]

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles (no value, no action, scratched)

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#34
Posted: 12/1/2012 5:29:27 AM

MRS  Releases [NFL handicapping projections]

Sunday December 2nd 2012

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears -3 /-110  4.4units

Minnesota Vikings +8.4units 5 /-110  4.4 @ GB Packers

SF 49ers -6 /-110  4.4units @ St Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens -6.5 /-110  4.4units

Cincinnati Bengals PK /-110  4.4units @ SD Chargers

TB Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos -270 ML  5.4units

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#35
Posted: 12/1/2012 8:41:49 PM
s_N

What are your thoughts on Cowboys -10 (-116) currently at pinnacle?
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#36
Posted: 12/1/2012 9:29:00 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

s_N

What are your thoughts on Cowboys -10 (-116) currently at pinnacle?

the wager is solid on the surface, as you also understand it has been placed in the "Crossout Recovery" formula, based on Thursdays loss to the Redskins. Although the risk factor is on the point-spread at -10.....a capper has to produce a must MM win, with the lowest risk management available. Taking Dallas -9.5 overpowers the Eagles +10....unfortunately the Cowboys 'lean' has no positive strength, to a cover. a capper must dig deep into his BR on this one, and go with the devalued wager of the ML to assure the WIN and recover previous loss.

the best to you always

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#37
Posted: 12/1/2012 9:58:39 PM

With Vick, McCoy, and Jackson OUT, the EAGLES leave very little to be desired for a WIN, or a pointspread cover; the automatic wagers in this case would be; at the discretion of the capper

Eagles vs Cowboys -500 ML  10units  90%

Eagles vs Cowboys -9.5 /-110  8.8units  72%

Eagles +10.5 /-115  8.8units  vs Cowboys  58%

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#38
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:00:37 PM
I follow what your saying.... My pockets aren't deep enough at this time for the ML win for full recovery. Are you going to be on this game in some form? Are you planning full recovery? If so best of luck my friend!
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#39
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:06:32 PM
You beat me to my post.
So your hoping for a Dallas win by 10 or 8.8 units will be a wash and you will only recover 2 units with a Dallas win correct?
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sports_Network
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#40
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:31:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

I follow what your saying.... My pockets aren't deep enough at this time for the ML win for full recovery. Are you going to be on this game in some form? Are you planning full recovery? If so best of luck my friend!

Yes I am 'heavy' on the undervalued ML that is fluctuating between -485 to -565 (waiting for a dramatic line movement 'dip') "Full Recovery" (Cross-out Formula) is on the agenda for Sundays action, with this particular game as the center of attention; connecting it to numerous proposition wagers, totals, and first half action;

buy the hook, take  the Cowboys -8.5 to -9 /-125  3.75units (this wager coincides with your BR, and the value it possesses in your behalf)

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#41
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:39:40 PM
I bought Dallas -9.5 (-128)

Do you have an opinion on the total? I wouldn't mind playing a small teaser
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#42
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:53:08 PM

oil

One thing you can take to the bank; the Eagles will not put points on the board early, with a rookie 'backup' QB calling the signals; look for the Cowboys to shine at home like a24-13 UNDER (44) WIN

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#43
Posted: 12/1/2012 11:06:08 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

MRS  Releases [NFL handicapping projections]

Sunday December 2nd 2012 (official)

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears -3 /-110  4.4units

Minnesota Vikings +8.5 /-110  4.4units @ GB Packers

SF 49ers -6 /-110  4.4units @ St Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens -6.5 /-110  4.4units

Cincinnati Bengals PK /-110  4.4units @ SD Chargers

TB Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos -270 ML  5.4units

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys -488 ML  24.4units

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#44
Posted: 12/2/2012 7:28:58 AM

update: Line Movement  (dramatic)*

Minnesota  Vikings   vs  Green Bay Packers

Play:  Vikings +10  |-110  

Wager:  4.4units

* the public has bet GB at home to an off the board circle, going from -8.5 to 9.5  with many books offering -10

 

 

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#45
Posted: 12/2/2012 7:39:04 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network] 

MRS  Releases [NFL handicapping projections]

Sunday December 2nd 2012 (official)

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears -3 /-110  4.4units

Minnesota Vikings +10.5 /-128  5.12units @ GB Packers*

SF 49ers -6 /-110  4.4units @ St Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens -6.5 /-110  4.4units

Cincinnati Bengals PK /-110  4.4units @ SD Chargers

TB Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos -270 ML  5.4units

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys -488 ML  24.4units

 

*Line movement plus the 'hook' Vikings +10.5 @ -128 is the handicap

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#46
Posted: 12/3/2012 6:01:25 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]  

 

MRS  Releases [NFL handicapping projections]

Sunday December 2nd 2012 (official)

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears -3 /-110  4.4units   [L]

Minnesota Vikings +10.5 /-128  5.12units @ GB Packers [W]

SF 49ers -6 /-110  4.4units @ St Louis Cardinals [L]

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens -6.5 /-110  4.4units  [L]

Cincinnati Bengals PK /-110  4.4units @ SD Chargers  [W]

TB Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos -270 ML  5.4units  [W]

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys -488 ML  24.4units  [W]

 

*Line movement plus the 'hook' Vikings +10.5 @ -128 is the handcap

 

 

Yesterdays Results:  4-3
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#47
Posted: 12/3/2012 8:48:47 AM

MRS Release 12/03/2012 [NFL handicapping projection]

MNF

NY Giants @ Washington Redskins +3.5 | -110   4.4units         NY Giants @ Washington Redskins  +145 ML  |   2units

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#48
Posted: 12/3/2012 8:58:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MRS Release 12/03/2012 [NFL handicapping projection]

MNF

NY Giants @ Washington Redskins +3.5 -110 4.4units         NY Giants @ Washington Redskins +145 ML 2units

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#49
Posted: 12/3/2012 9:17:42 AM

not printing, correctly, lets try again

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#50
Posted: 12/3/2012 9:21:28 AM
MRS Release 12/03/2012 [NFL handicapping projection]

MNF (official)

NY Giants @ Washington Redskins +3.5  -110  |  4.4units 

 

NY Giants @ Washington Redskins  +145 ML  |   2units

quote
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