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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA System Plays
Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 11/25/2012 1:09:35 AM
Here are the systems there are some filters in place here and there.
#1: 88-1 +79.74 Units. for 6 gm streakers to W again if A won +"7 gamers" to fade. Winners Filtered
#2: 75-11 +37.5 Units. chasing C+D game IF A OR B game wins after streak is snapped. Losers
#3: 35-1 +26.74 Units. 3 game chase to win, starting from D game when both a & b lose.  Losers
#4: WEST ONLY 32-1 +23.74 Units.  3 game fade chase on result of the A game.  Losers Filtered.
#5: 77-44 +21 Units. D Game only.   Losers
#6: 24-1 +15.74 Units. 3 game chase after a team has lost 7 in a row ATS.   Losers
#7: **** Replaced old system, now East only and play the C game game only if A + B is lost.
#8: 44-5-1p +25.85 Units. 2 Game chase fade on C+D games when a "7+ gm Streaker" wins either A OR B Winners look out for filters.

I hope this explains things better. If someone else wants to track them then go ahead. If you want to throw up some suggestions on how i can improve the tracking I'm all in for it.
Anyone want to share some winning systems, I'm in there tooo!
I just want to get some coin back from my book after some experimental failures earlier this yr.
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#52
Posted: 11/25/2012 1:11:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SuperHappyTime:

Yea, C game for System #3. But I was under some odd impression System #2 could be used for both streaking winners and streaking losers, otherwise all it does is clash with System #1. I dunno, maybe I'm just making SHT up (ba-dum ching!)

11/24 plays:

Sacramento System #2 play hit

Dallas System #3 play missed, next/final play on Nov. 27

Next Plays:

10/26 Memphis - System #1 - Pick Against - Game 2 of 3

10/26 Memphis - System #2 - Pick For - Game 1 of 3

Streakers to Watch:

Minnesota - 5 Losses - Next Game: 11/27 - Earliest Possible X Game: 11/28

3 game streaks: Cleveland, Denver, LA Clippers, Sacramento

Teams with Earliest Possible X-Game: Minnesota (11/28), Denver (11/30), Cleveland Detroit and San Antonio (12/1)

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#53
Posted: 11/25/2012 1:16:31 AM

^^^ All Systems mentioned in first page of the original thread ^^^

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#54
Posted: 11/25/2012 1:17:01 AM
@ Degen - I have Sac filtered out of system #4.
that B2B I wrote up is for when a team losses 7 in a row ats then, wins a single game then they loss again 6 in a row ats.

@ SHT - I hope my last post answered most your questions.

@ akell - Same as SHT. Also Sac was not a play on nov 24 vs Utah. I looked back and did not mention them as a play.

@ stickbit - my previous post.
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#55
Posted: 11/25/2012 1:18:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SuperHappyTime:

^^^ All Systems mentioned in first page of the original thread ^^^


NOT TRUE ANYMORE

The ORDER of the systems have been changed, a couple added and the one that had the most plays has been filtered out.
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#56
Posted: 11/25/2012 1:37:58 AM
                     05-12   | When played @ |
.................. | Record | 1U since 05-06  | Playing @    | 12-13 Record
System #1: | 88-1.... | +79.74 Units | 3 unit chase   | +3
System #2: | 75-11.. | +37.5 Units.. | 2 unit chase   |
System #3: | 35-1.... | +26.74 Units | 1 unit chase   |
System #4: | 32-1.... | +23.74 Units | 1 unit chase   | +1 (missed a play, sorry)
System #5: | 77-44.. | +28.6 Units.. | 1.5 unit 1 play |
System #6: | 24-1.... | +15.74 Units | 1 unit chase   | +1
System #7: | 12-4.... | +7.6 Units..... | 3 unit 1 play * | +3
System #8: | 44-5.... | +25.85 Units | 2 unit chase   |

* = Replaced previous system play.

Current Streakers
Min 5 L

PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!

Dal 2 unit, 2 game chase for them to win. system #2 On B game
Dal 1.5 units to win @PHI. system #5 Total Bet with System #2 5.7 units
SAC sys #5 - to win vs ind, sys #2 - 2 game chase to win vs min or ind. Starts next game.
Mem sys #1 chase to win 1 of next 3 STARTS.
Mem sys #8 2 game chase for them to lose vs either Tor or Det.


Experimental Plays Record: (won't count to total record)
1Q ML +6 Units,
1Q ATS +3 Units
Football:  -16.5 Units
NBA non-system plays: - 1.1 + 1.5 Units = +.4 Units

Exp Plays - non-system play 3 game chase fade on  Atl 1.5 Units B game pending.
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#57
Posted: 11/25/2012 1:42:22 AM
hey Degen I am thinking of doing a modified version of Stiflers plays here in this thread. Should I just post them or ask him first?
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#58
Posted: 11/25/2012 2:36:38 AM
you can always ask him - but since he shared it in the SBR forum I would figure he doesn't mind them being shared. But hit him up just to be courteous. I don't personally know him or anything - just ran across his thread
Posted using a mobile device.
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#59
Posted: 11/25/2012 3:13:24 AM
will do.
1Q ML chase plays for sunday
DOG chase Tor to Port to Orl to NO. 1/2 unit chase.
starting 3 game 1Q ML home fav chase on Phi.
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#60
Posted: 11/25/2012 9:16:50 AM
Why did you eliminate the original system #1?  Playing against streaky winners after the (x) game. It had alot of plays and still seemed profitable.
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#61
Posted: 11/25/2012 10:50:58 AM
@akell - last season (if tracked from beg of the yr) it was in the red.
overall it was barely profitable. and tooo many C games, which I don't like at all.
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#62
Posted: 11/25/2012 10:58:16 AM
I am added system plays from another forum here. I think they are profitable.
Original poster is Stifler. He has 4 Systems. only gave a rough explanation as to what they are. They are all 4 game chases.

Current Plays
S1: Fade Den: NO +10.5 D BET
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#63
Posted: 11/26/2012 12:59:48 PM
Stiflers system records
2006/07: 227-5 (+131,75 units)
2007/08: 217-2 (+180,10 units)
2008/09: 232-6 (+121,30 units)
2009/10: 240-4 (+166,20 units)
2010/11: 211-3 (+155,65 units)
2011/12: 181-3 (+125,65 units)
overall: 1308-23 (+880,65 units)

S1 overall: 620-13

A Bet: 339-294
B Bet: 163-131
C Bet: 86-45
D Bet: 32-13

S2 overall: 266-5

A Bet: 142-129
B Bet: 75-54
C Bet: 35-19
D Bet: 14-5

S3 overall: 139-2

A Bet: 82-59
B Bet: 37-22
C Bet: 12-10
D Bet: 8-2

S4 overall: 283-3

A Bet: 168-118
B Bet: 69-49
C Bet: 33-16
D Bet: 13-3
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#64
Posted: 11/26/2012 1:03:29 PM
I am modifying Stiflers plays a little, System #1 (S1) and System #2 (S2) will be played starting from game 2 to minimize risks.

MY PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!

Dal 2 unit, 2 game chase for them to win. system #2 On B game
Dal 1.5 units to win @PHI. system #5 Total Bet with System #2 5.7 units
SAC sys #5 - to win vs ind, sys #2 - 2 game chase to win vs min or ind. Starts next game.
Mem sys #1 chase to win 1 of next 3 STARTS.
Mem sys #8 2 game chase for them to lose vs either Tor or Det.

Stiflers Plays -
S1

(A bet) Chic fade: Milwaukee - line not up yet

S2

(A Bet) Cle fade: Memphis - waiting on line movement

S4

2u play (A Bet) Wash fade: Spurs -5 2u
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#65
Posted: 11/26/2012 1:04:33 PM
so currently S1, S2 are 3 game chases and S4 is a 4 game chase*
S3 in the future will be 4 game chases, no plays today.
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#66
Posted: 11/26/2012 3:25:26 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

#4: WEST ONLY 32-1 +23.74 Units.  3 game fade chase on result of the A game.  Losers Filtered.

System 4 is a little confusing for me. The win is off of Dallas' streak when they beat New York in the B-game, right? So should we be fading Sacramento, or is an A game Loss necessary to start fading? And what does "Filtered" mean?

The only Streaks I have are New York (W, 1), Memphis (W, 1,8), Dallas (L, 2,4,5), LA Clips (W, None), and Sacramento (L, 2,4?,5,6). So where is the System 7 play?

I've got quite a bit of a Spreadsheet made, just ironing out the wrinkles.

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#67
Posted: 11/26/2012 4:07:00 PM
SHT I have some filters in place. Dal lost their first game after the streak was snapped. so you fade that result.

System #7 is a replacement for the one that was "123-9 +58.74 Units"
The previous system was in the red last season and has a ton of C games so I dropped it.
AT the same time the system that replaced it, the new system #7, had a play on NY to win that game. It is a single play ats.
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#68
Posted: 11/26/2012 6:36:25 PM

Since system #5 is not a chase and hits over 63% of the time, it is perfect for using a labby line.  I'm going to try it this way.

My labby line starts like this:   1 1 1 1  (units)

First play will be Dallas to win tomorrow, betting 2.2 to win 2.

 

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#69
Posted: 11/26/2012 9:10:16 PM
I am not good with labby lines akell

Please do so as I was thinking of doing something similar to it.
we will probably have about 15 games all season though. so I don't know what the outcome will be.

Also please post your system here. I know today's play would be the spurs. They won.
In a Rob Schneider voice
"LETS DO THIS!"
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#70
Posted: 11/26/2012 10:54:07 PM

My system, as you know, is very simple.  You just play the ATS, the road favorite with the best record each day.  Only filter is, the team we play must have a record over .500.  And I use a labby line for money management.

Yesterday's play was San Antonio -6, which was a loss.

My line started like this:  1 1 1 1 (units)  we bet 2.2 to win 2. But we lost.

So my line looked like this:  1 1 1 1 2.2   You always try to win the total of the first and the last number of the line. So the next bet will be 3.52 to win 3.2 units.  Keep your units small, I had a six game losing streak one time last year.  But this won over 62% of the plays.

Today's play was San Antonio -6.5, which was a win. So you cross off the two numbers we won.

The line looks like this:  x 1 1 1 x.  But for me, whenever the far right number is one unit, I start my line over. So for me tomorrow, my line will again be 1 1 1 1.  And we are currently up +1 unit. From the start of the NBA season, I am up +22 units.

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#71
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:03:41 PM

Air-tailing you on the system and hopefully going to be a little more discipline with my plays. Few questions if you do not mind since I am still a little confused.

1) All picks are ATS or do you play SU sometimes?

2) Do you post all plays here during day?

Thanks for your help and look forward to

CG

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#72
Posted: 11/26/2012 11:20:50 PM

See if I got tomorrow's plays right?

Dallas ATS vs 76ers (big play)

Sac ATS vs MIN

CG

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#73
Posted: 11/27/2012 12:27:25 AM
@CG2A - I believe those are the plays as Mem is the only other one and they are off. All games are ATS. And I try to post when I can (as you can see with current plays, days in advance).

Current Streakers
Den W 5
Min L 5


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#74
Posted: 11/27/2012 12:28:14 AM
@CG2A - I believe those are the plays as Mem is the only other one and they are off. All games are ATS. And I try to post when I can (as you can see with current plays, days in advance).

Current Streakers
Den W 5
Min L 5
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#75
Posted: 11/27/2012 12:28:21 AM
@CG2A - I believe those are the plays as Mem is the only other one and they are off. All games are ATS. And I try to post when I can (as you can see with current plays, days in advance).

Current Streakers
Den W 5
Min L 5
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