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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2012-13
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: South Point |
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#76
Posted: 2/5/2013 3:28:37 AM
Tough call but I think you need to count it. Most people that would be betting this system would have put their bets in well before the 3 minute mark. Just my opinion.
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#77
Posted: 2/5/2013 3:32:58 AM

Trychome - Actually for your tracking purposes, this shouldn't be counted for an A game. This was game 2 of their 4 game homestand. They didn't qualify on Saturday 2/2 vs Edmonton. If I understand the rules of this system correctly, if they don't qualify for game 1 the chase is done. Correct?

That being said, they would have qualified for my double dip system since there were 3 games left.

Thoughts?

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#78
Posted: 2/5/2013 11:24:10 AM
Trychome - Maybe a cutoff time needs to be established, perhaps an hour before game time for the line to be finalized as a go or not.  Just an idea.

To Dan's point, if a team does not qualify for game 1, no chase correct?  Or if there are three games plus still left on a homestand and they qualify game 2, or even a game 3 with 2 more to go would the chase begin then???  
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#79
Posted: 2/5/2013 6:15:54 PM
ok i wont count it for the official record, but im going to continue to chase.  the title of the system is "opening game fav" so i would have to agree with you dan.  

@sweetdick - the 1 hour cutoff time sounds good.  I will personally chase a series if there are 3 games left and it qualifies in the first game of the series, but not if there are only 2 games left.  if there is a 4 game home stand and the first game doesnt qualify, it wouldnt qualify for the system since it is not the "opening" game and it wouldnt count as a double dip since it technically wouldnt be "double" but i'll leave that up to dan
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#80
Posted: 2/5/2013 6:17:16 PM
where is therizz when you need him. haha
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#81
Posted: 2/5/2013 6:22:16 PM
A - OTT
A - STL

possibly A - WIN (will check 1 hour before game time
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#82
Posted: 2/5/2013 6:33:28 PM
sorry for the quad post.  WIN doesnt count. only 2 game stand. dunno wat i was looking at
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#83
Posted: 2/5/2013 6:34:10 PM
Winnipeg only has a 2 game home stand. The other one that starts tonight is New Jersey - not going to qualify.
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#84
Posted: 2/5/2013 6:40:01 PM

Regarding Colorado from Monday, I think we move that series chase to the one I'm tracking since it wouldn't qualify under the original rules for the Open game favorite chase. Maybe I need to rename my the "Any series that doesn't qualify under the Open Day Game Favorite chase"

Series 5-0 (Colorado B game pending Wednesday)

A - 5-1
B - 0-0
C - 0-0
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#85
Posted: 2/5/2013 10:11:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by trychome:

where is therizz when you need him. haha


lurking trychrome, haha

COL was not a play the other night.  Has to be the first game of the series to trigger the chase.  I had STL and OTT tonight starting chases.  That is the only way that I backtested it.  You guys are doing a great job with it.  Will be interesting to see how the modifications work out this year that Danrules is doign.


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#86
Posted: 2/5/2013 10:46:24 PM
Damn, Nashville scored a touchdown on St. Louis!  Did everything but kick the extra point...lol!  
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#87
Posted: 2/5/2013 11:18:28 PM
@therizz - thanks for clearing that up. 
@sweetdick - haha. if we have to lose, id prefer it to be a blow out.  i hate losing during a shootout

Series 8-0
A - 7-2
B - 0-1
C - 1-0
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#88
Posted: 2/6/2013 12:41:08 PM

Double dip** chase system

We have Col on a B game tonight.

Series 5-0 (Colorado B game pending Wednesday)

A - 5-1
B - 0-0
C - 0-0
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#89
Posted: 2/6/2013 1:14:46 PM

Was brainstorming yesterday about this system and thought about fading teams on a 3 game or longer road trip. Without any filters here is what I came up with.

Current season: 10-0

2011/2012: 160-14

2010/2011: 141-21

Might be too many losses for a 3 game chase system, but I can look for some filters like not playing if road team is a fave in game 1.

Since I was pouring through data, I decided to check the double dip system.

Current season: 4-1 (Nashville, 2 on shootouts)

2011/2012: 96-6

2010/2011: 72-4

Also checked on if a 4 or more game road trip, just fading the last 3 games in a chase.

Current season: 3-1 (Nashville, 2 on shootouts)

2011/2012: 93-2

2010/2011: 80-8

Not sure what to make of all this, but I think I need to check a couple filters if possible.

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#90
Posted: 2/6/2013 6:27:10 PM
are those series losses? if it is, i dont think the fade road teams thing is a good idea.

im also 2nd guessing the COL chase now. can anyone else with more NHL knowledge chime in on this?
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#91
Posted: 2/6/2013 7:21:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by trychome:

are those series losses? if it is, i dont think the fade road teams thing is a good idea.

im also 2nd guessing the COL chase now. can anyone else with more NHL knowledge chime in on this?

Yes series losses. I tried the road fave filter but that didn't do much. Think I'll add this to the scrap pile.

Regarding COL, I'm tracking it under my system to stay consistent but not betting it. I've bet all the other chases (yours and mine).

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#92
Posted: 2/6/2013 9:29:25 PM
Interesting stuff Dan.  Wonder if we plugged in a winning percentage filter similar to a baseball chase I follow would help reduce or eliminate the losses.  It might drastically reduce the wins as well, but just a thought.  

That way we would picking on the garbage teams and hopefully eliminating the losses.
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#93
Posted: 2/6/2013 10:47:12 PM
Another thought, please remember I am not a hockey guy, but maybe goals for/goals against differential could be used as a filter to cut out most of the losses.  

Thanks for all your hard work Dan, I really think your on to something!  


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#94
Posted: 2/6/2013 11:18:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

Another thought, please remember I am not a hockey guy, but maybe goals for/goals against differential could be used as a filter to cut out most of the losses.  

Thanks for all your hard work Dan, I really think your on to something!  


I did a quick check on those losses and quite a few were from bad teams that were serious road dogs. That filter will not work. I will give it some more thought though and see if I can find something for next year.

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#95
Posted: 2/7/2013 3:59:19 AM
dan - how did the a, b, c games work out in those seasons.
if one is exceptionally good then i could see a labby chase working there.
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#96
Posted: 2/7/2013 12:51:15 PM
Stl. B game today? 
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#97
Posted: 2/7/2013 2:02:36 PM

Yes STL B game tonight. Also, Ottawa on the double dip chase.

Series 5-0 (Colorado C game pending on Feb 11)

A - 5-1
B - 0-1
C - 0-0
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#98
Posted: 2/7/2013 2:10:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

dan - how did the a, b, c games work out in those seasons.
if one is exceptionally good then i could see a labby chase working there.

I just did the 11/12 season and don't think it looks any better.

Regular 3 game chase (160-14 series, 160-90 overall):

A 97-44

B 45-32

C 18-14

Double dip chase (96-6 series, 96-72 overall)

A 56-46

B 26-20

C 14-6

Last 3 of a 4 or more road trip (94-3 series corrected, 94-69 overall)

A 49-48

B 30-18

C 15-3

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#99
Posted: 2/7/2013 6:45:16 PM
B - STL
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#100
Posted: 2/7/2013 7:29:10 PM
Dan, you don't see what I see? 29-9!! only playing the C games of those chases.
Back testing the C games of the other seasons would confirm if/how profitable a chase would be.
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