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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: best amount of points to parlay tease?
The8ofCups send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
The8ofCups
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#1
Posted: 9/5/2012 2:53:37 PM
Anyone have an educated opinion on the best amount of points for a teaser parlay?  5 Dimes lets you do any number from 5 to 17, including half-points (5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, etc.).  And on top of that 20 points (payouts are absurdly low on that).

For football with all its magic numbers (3, 6, 7) involved in scoring, it seems like there could be some optimal teaser number.  Just wondering if anyone has a guess as to what it might be?  Thanks.
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FrankShades
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#2
Posted: 9/5/2012 4:54:07 PM
I use the site so I will answer your question to the best of my ability. First, I assume you are referring to a teaser bet. There is really no optimal number. The only thing I would recommend is that for football you avoid key numbers and ensure you get pts that would avoid a push at a key number (like 7). Keep in mind that these bets always look great on paper but at the end or the day, it's called a tease for a reason. Goodluck!
Posted using a mobile device.
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The8ofCups send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#3
Posted: 9/6/2012 7:19:46 AM
Thanks, Frank.

I guess I should be more clear.  I get what you should do when teasing a single play.  What I'm wondering is if you do a parlay with a lot of teams, teasing the same amount on each one, then you're not going to be able to line up on key numbers on each play. 

That being the case, say you're doing a 10-team teaser parlay, is there some point value on the tease that you've found works best and still gives a decent payout?
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stats1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#4
Posted: 9/9/2012 10:49:58 PM
I like 3.5 points 2team teasers pays +150 think it is great 4 nfl don't darn with it n college
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Realmwalker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 9/12/2012 11:16:51 AM
If you are talking about NFL, and with out going into a whole lot of math, the simple answer is typically the 6 or 6.5 teasers.  Again, as mentioned previously, the key is crossing certain numbers (the 3, 7, 10, 6, 14). Those numbers are , IN ORDER, the most frequent NFL differential scores. Meaning most often NFL games end in a 3, 7, 10, 6, or 14 point difference.  If you want to maximize your chance of success with a teaser you need to get to as close to +EV as possible.

Quick example: Traditionally, the -110 bet for an ATS bet requires you to win 52.3 % of the time. (The math is bet/payout -->110/210 = 52.3%).  Now when you factor in a teaser(in this case we will use a 2 team 6 point teaser) you need to establish what the inclusion of say TWO teams are and at what level they must win at to be successful.  Using 5dimes, they offer a 2 team 6 pt teaser where "TIES WIN" at -105...thus you are getting that bet at the equivalent of a -249 bet...essentially they are charging you 139 cents for the points. Thus you need each team to win at a 71.3% clip to make it a +EV bet.  Therefore you need to find two teams whose ATS bets are best suited to maximize the points you are buying. Teams with which you can exceed the 71.3% for it to be a profitable play in the long term.

Through some research it appears that the following was true from like 2005 to 2010. Again, do research for current stats...anyway...during that time teams that were +4.5 to +5.5 Road Dogs were winning at a percentage above your target 71.3%. Also Home Faves starting at -7.5 to -8.5 teased down to below the 3 were hitting at 76%, and finally Road Dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased up were hitting at 72%.

Sooo, if you were looking to maximize a teaser, the key is to find out what is really behind the payouts and then find the key numbers to crossover to maximize your chances.

JUST FYI...the 10 pt teasers are really just folly, you might get lucky here and there, but the pay out is too low for the risk made...

Hope that helps....Finally, there was a book written in 2001 I think by STANFORD WONG called Sharp Sports Betting which detailed some "basic strategy" rules for teasers, but like with everything else, since that time I am certain that books have adjusted.
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The8ofCups send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#6
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:03:51 PM
Thanks, realmwalker.  I can do some number crunching on ATS results going back about 22 years.  Getting some ideas on how I can crack this open...
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#7
Posted: 9/13/2012 11:15:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The8ofCups:

Thanks, realmwalker.  I can do some number crunching on ATS results going back about 22 years.  Getting some ideas on how I can crack this open...


Keep in mind more current analysis on the teasers will likely get you the better idea of what NFL teams are doing. Going too far back wont net any valuable information and will just be a mining of data that is really not relevant to what you are looking for.

Just as a heads up I am starting to put together a logical way to use teasers in the NFL this season. This is why your question seemed so relevant. Given data from the past 3-5 years would go a long way to putting together a nice teaser system which could pay.
I hit you with a friend request. Perhaps we can share play ideas and exchange data.ideas and see if we cant come to a nice setup this season.  Hit me with a PM or email if you think this is something that would interest you. As you can see I LURK and read far more than I post as most is fluff and nonsense, but I would welcome some one to bounce plays or ideas off of without delving into all the hassle posting plays on a thread bring with it. Let me know and GL!
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