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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: College Football: A system to cosider
TheBuddah
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TheBuddah
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#1
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:14:34 AM

I bet  4 sports - CFB, CBB, NFL and MLB.  For every sport, I have come up with a strategy. It's taken years to develop, collecting data, tweaking etc. but it works and better yet it takes the gut feel out of it and let's you derive at a decision based on data. This is a step by step:

1. Use the opening line - found at donbest.com - always handicap using the opening line. 

2. I then write down 4 bits of data: Total offense rank,Total Defense rank, Sagarain rank and sagarin schedule strength rank.  The first two ranks can be found at sportsnetwork.com, fbs, statistics.  The next two can be found - go to google, pop sagarin in there and it will say usa sagarin rankings go there and click on college football. 

3. Basically, I follow patterns based on the opening line and the 4 ranks.  Since we don't have current data for the games tomorrow and this weekend - we can still use last years data (I have done this the last several years and it does work for the first year), for example, em at ball st. and ball st is favored by 3 - the opening line, we have the following:

   East Mich     93 34 119  117

3 Ball st           68 119 100  78

I always write T.off., T. Def, sagarin rank sagarin sched strength and each rank is A B C D.   In this case we have EM better in 1 category total defense.   I label this as a 1 B / 3  situation.  This let's me know how many categories each team is better in and what they are.

4.  I have a data base where I collect and write this information down.  Trends develop and based on those trends I have a pattern to follow.  In the case of the game above, history has shown that when you have a 1 B/ 3 situation and the 3 team is favored by less than 7.5 pts - take the 1 team.  Thus my money is on Emich.  It's early so becareful.  In addition, Nebraska, Illinois, Ga, they all follow a pattern - not the same as emich. but a pattern that has shown a trend - thus that team for this given weekend.

5. I suggest you copy and paste the lines from donbest.com into your own spreadsheet.  Then write down the situation for each team.  I print it out write it down and then go thru putting the info. into a spreadsheet.  It's a pain but it does pay.  

6. Betting on games where all you have is gut feel or going against the public - been there done that - it just doesn't work consistently.  You feel more confident and you understand the ranks and sked. strength etc.

7. Also, recognize oddsmakers are smart people - they have the money, time, data to put a number on a game that makes sense from their vantage point - the line on the game takes into account a variety of factors - including injuries, public perception, road, home, night day etc.  - coming up with your own line doesn't make sense to me, therefore, I use their line with my criteria. 

8.   It's a marathon not a sprint so becareful, this data is updated everyweek.

9. Any questions - let me know. Good luck this season everyone. TB

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hardyvault
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#2
Posted: 8/30/2012 8:37:03 AM
Interesting, I too only use opening lines when working my systems. Any W/L percentages you want to share? Will be watching, hope you have much success...
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TheBuddah
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#3
Posted: 8/30/2012 10:03:37 AM
hardyvault - thanks, same to you. I'm not good at tracking wins and losses but I have done good. I still get hung up on a play and that will taketime to recover from but then I go back and tweak my criteria.  I'll post my picks in the forum and try to do a better job of keeping track, maybe it will help me be more selective.   
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TheBuddah
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TheBuddah
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#4
Posted: 8/30/2012 10:35:10 AM
Just for the record - disregard the Ga and Illinois picks in this post - I was going on memory vice having the data in front of me - see the cfb forum for my picks.
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#5
Posted: 9/6/2012 12:08:45 AM
Great tip Buddah  but do u factor in returning starters and things like that as well?
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TheBuddah
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#6
Posted: 9/8/2012 11:16:24 AM
speedy - the oddsmakers would do that.   I just go with the opening line - f there is something major that occurs (qb change) they revise the opening line and I would adjust accordingly.
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#7
Posted: 9/10/2012 4:22:46 AM
I'm still a little confused as to how ur system works as far as how u come up with ur own line and compare it to the opening line. Wt type of trend u follow after u get ur 4 data catagories together.  Seems like a pretty good system and would like to know a little more about it because right now I kinda go off of my hit feeling sometimes and that definitely doesn't work lol. 
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TheBuddah
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#8
Posted: 9/13/2012 12:38:57 AM

Speedy - I don't come up with my own line - i use the opening line from donbest.com.  I look up the 4 data points and let the patterns drive my decision.  If you look up the data for rutgers and sfla, you would have:

        Rutgers  100  6 79   215

9.5   S. fla       46   52 34  77       

This is a 1B/3 situation.  History (games played where i recored this data since 2007) has shown that in a 1B/3 situation you need to compare the 1 teams Offens. rank  100 compared to the 3 teams def. rank - 52  - whatever team has a better rank is the team to take.  In this case - s.fla is the choice 52 is better than 100.   I think the line went to 7.- that doesn't bother me unless there is a qb change - i stick with the pattern. My money is on s.fla.  You have to print out the spreads and then write this info. down. record it in a spread sheet so you have something to refer to.  Does this help?

 

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#9
Posted: 9/13/2012 11:07:17 AM
Thabuddah- yes thanks I have a better understanding now, but since u use the opening line for ur system do u lock ur bets early to catch the opening line or wait for the movement? And if so how much of a move will u play and How far does the line have to jump for u to not bet? Thanks for the help!
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TheBuddah
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#10
Posted: 9/13/2012 6:32:29 PM
speedy  - no problem - I do watch the line movement but unless it goes way down or up do i get concerned.  If there is a major change - qb, location of the game - something that can jar the flow ....i stick to it.  My thinking in the game tonite with s. fla.....rutgers is ranked 6th in defense.....and they have kept games close with s.fla when on the road.......thus public money goes on rutgers....not sure exactly but i'm sticking with s.fla.
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TheBuddah
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TheBuddah
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#11
Posted: 9/13/2012 6:40:16 PM
your other question - lock up the line - i typically don't lock up the line nor do i buy points - i just go with the flow.....i do ocaasionally throw in a teaser - gives me a larger margin of error.
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#12
Posted: 9/13/2012 8:50:02 PM
Okay thanks thebuddah I will definitley try this out. How have u done so far this season?
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TheBuddah
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#13
Posted: 9/15/2012 8:56:19 AM
I know it did not come thru for s.fla but check out the picks for today in the cfb forum...it's a marathon not a sprint.
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TheBuddah
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#14
Posted: 9/16/2012 10:02:58 AM
Including sfla and taking ecarolina on the m.l as well as the spread -   I went 14-7 for week 3 using the pattern system (see forum section for records).  Once again good luck all.
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ShadowWarrior
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#15
Posted: 10/8/2012 2:08:07 PM
Are your picks posted in the respective forums?  I seem to only have read your MLB picks.  I hear what you are saying about gut feeling and it is good to take emotion out of the equation and I find this so difficult to do as sports is so much about emotion.  I play all and my strategy is to money line parlays to eliminate spreads.  If you can pair a dog in your plays you can mix big favs and small favs and dogs,etc.  had good success with say Serena in tennis, Baylor. Lady Bears, KY Wildcats in baskets.  Seem to have reasonable luck with futures as I had Serena to win Olympic Gold and Wimbledon and Katie Taylor to win Gold for women Olympic boxing.  My parlays are not big winners as usually my odds are not high but I find it easier to go 50-50 in money line parlays then trying to go over 50% in straight bet wagers.  Example, yesterday had Tigers parlayed with New England money line.  Lost a straight wager Detroit run line but the parlay made up for it.
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TheBuddah
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#16
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:27:44 PM
shadow - i do put them in the respective forums. sometimes i can't get to it - but i put them in this past week.
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#17
Posted: 6/4/2014 2:20:36 PM
ok
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