Posted: 8/30/2012 12:14:34 AM
I bet 4 sports - CFB, CBB, NFL and MLB. For every sport, I have come up with a strategy. It's taken years to develop, collecting data, tweaking etc. but it works and better yet it takes the gut feel out of it and let's you derive at a decision based on data. This is a step by step:
1. Use the opening line - found at donbest.com - always handicap using the opening line.
2. I then write down 4 bits of data: Total offense rank,Total Defense rank, Sagarain rank and sagarin schedule strength rank. The first two ranks can be found at sportsnetwork.com, fbs, statistics. The next two can be found - go to google, pop sagarin in there and it will say usa sagarin rankings go there and click on college football.
3. Basically, I follow patterns based on the opening line and the 4 ranks. Since we don't have current data for the games tomorrow and this weekend - we can still use last years data (I have done this the last several years and it does work for the first year), for example, em at ball st. and ball st is favored by 3 - the opening line, we have the following:
East Mich 93 34 119 117
3 Ball st 68 119 100 78
I always write T.off., T. Def, sagarin rank sagarin sched strength and each rank is A B C D. In this case we have EM better in 1 category total defense. I label this as a 1 B / 3 situation. This let's me know how many categories each team is better in and what they are.
4. I have a data base where I collect and write this information down. Trends develop and based on those trends I have a pattern to follow. In the case of the game above, history has shown that when you have a 1 B/ 3 situation and the 3 team is favored by less than 7.5 pts - take the 1 team. Thus my money is on Emich. It's early so becareful. In addition, Nebraska, Illinois, Ga, they all follow a pattern - not the same as emich. but a pattern that has shown a trend - thus that team for this given weekend.
5. I suggest you copy and paste the lines from donbest.com into your own spreadsheet. Then write down the situation for each team. I print it out write it down and then go thru putting the info. into a spreadsheet. It's a pain but it does pay.
6. Betting on games where all you have is gut feel or going against the public - been there done that - it just doesn't work consistently. You feel more confident and you understand the ranks and sked. strength etc.
7. Also, recognize oddsmakers are smart people - they have the money, time, data to put a number on a game that makes sense from their vantage point - the line on the game takes into account a variety of factors - including injuries, public perception, road, home, night day etc. - coming up with your own line doesn't make sense to me, therefore, I use their line with my criteria.
8. It's a marathon not a sprint so becareful, this data is updated everyweek.
9. Any questions - let me know. Good luck this season everyone. TB