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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012 NCAAF CAPPER EXTRAORDINAIRE
bruin95 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#151
Posted: 9/19/2012 5:56:22 PM
Irage, what games do you need lines for?  My book just posted lines for pretty much all of the "off" games.
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#152
Posted: 9/19/2012 10:51:42 PM
This usually is a good source of Vegas and Offshore lines.  When in Vegas, I look to this site first before running around and physically checking the books.

 http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
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irage
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#153
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:04:25 AM
If they were easy to find, I wouldn't ask.

Arkansas St.
Navy
Nebraska
N.C. St.
Northwestern
Ohio
Pittsburgh
Texas A&M
Texas St.
Toledo
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irage
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#154
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:10:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Damn you got a great line at Buffalo +1 5dimes is Buffalo  -3 1/2


I need to be cautious with those early lines. Buffalo quickly became -3.5 FAV with just a few hours after posting. That's why I dropped the game. Glad I did too, they got their fools handed to them.
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#155
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:19:28 AM
Updated lines again tonight. Wyoming and Tulane are still good to go. Oregon could be dropped by Friday if the line continues to drop.

WEEK FOUR

13 -11 - 0

SATURDAY
Oregon -24.5
LSU -20.5
W. Michigan +1.5
Wyoming +2
Tulane +18

North Texas 0
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#156
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:42:17 AM
Arkansas St. -41
Navy -38
Nebraska -45
N.C. St. -20
Northwestern -27.5
Ohio -32.5
Pittsburgh -42.5
Texas A&M -51
Texas St. -2
Toledo -29
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glefkb01
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#157
Posted: 9/20/2012 2:28:45 PM
won on kent state lastnight....was against ya vbut i see u dropped  it anyway     hoping for good weekend.
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#158
Posted: 9/20/2012 8:54:33 PM
Updated lines

Ohio -35
Northwestern -29.5
Navy -37.5
Pittsburgh -44
NC State -13.5 (huge drop)
Texas St. -3
Arkansas St. -46 (huge jump)
Toledo -31.5
Nebraska -46.5
Texas A&M still at -51




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irage
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#159
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:55:29 AM
Updated lines again tonight. These should be good to go, but check back again tomorrow. I don't know what to make of the NC. St drop, but it works in our favor.

WEEK FOUR

13 -11 - 0

SATURDAY
Oregon -24.5
LSU -20.5
W. Michigan +1.5
Wyoming +2
Tulane +18

North Texas 0
Alcorn St +46
VMI +38
N.C. St. -13.5
Gardner +42
South Carolina St +51
Texas St -2
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irage
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#160
Posted: 9/21/2012 9:57:46 AM
I have to drop Oregon, computer says Oregon -15. I still think they win by -21 as they are arguably the best team in country.
Tulane is a drop also, computer says Miss by -1. There is no way Miss doesn't roll all over the Green Wave. Their defense is awful and I predict Miss by -24.

WEEK FOUR

13 -11 - 0

SATURDAY
LSU -20.5
W. Michigan +1.5
Wyoming +2.5
Utah +7
North Texas 0
Alcorn St +46
VMI +38
N.C. St. -13.5
Gardner +42
South Carolina St +51
Texas St -2
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FrankShades
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#161
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:02:37 PM
Did you bet on Miss and just take a loss on the Vig? I thought Bold were the plays you liked and they were locked in?
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irage
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#162
Posted: 9/21/2012 8:13:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FrankShades:

Did you bet on Miss and just take a loss on the Vig? I thought Bold were the plays you liked and they were locked in?


The bold plays are my personal favorite picks. All the picks I post are system plays. The only problem is, on some games the odds bounce all over the place. I look for games that hit that sweet spot. Watch the posts I like to lock up the games by Friday night.

No, I am not taking Miss, because Tulane is the system play. I just personally disagree with numbers, so the game was eliminated. Lets see what happens tomorrow.
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#163
Posted: 9/22/2012 1:13:42 AM
Irage, I meant that it seemed as if Tulane was locked in so I was wondering if it was a no play (bet on Miss to cancel it out). I guess my question is how can I determine your plays. I've been following for a while. Last yr you seemed to fire pretty early in the wk. Trying to get an understanding of what you're doing now and why things changed. Thanks man! Goodluck today!
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#164
Posted: 9/22/2012 8:08:36 AM

I cant even take half those games...   Are these board games?

Last week of powder puff games for the big boys...next week hope the list gets smaller and we can get down with the real games.

Good luck IRAGE....

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#165
Posted: 9/22/2012 8:47:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

I cant even take half those games...   Are these board games?

Last week of powder puff games for the big boys...next week hope the list gets smaller and we can get down with the real games.

Good luck IRAGE....


What do you mean by this glef? Pardon me for my ignorance but I know absolutely nothing about NCAAF and I just tail irage
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#166
Posted: 9/22/2012 12:11:11 PM
Glef, forget about those off board games. Focus on the bold games. Texas St is probably off, but Wyoming, and W. Michigan and N Texas should be on. This system is different than last year. I removed the RPI. My software determines the score the FAV will win by. I have a filter that looks for a specific range of difference between the determine spread and the actual spread. Those are games I list. Then I apply another filter to those games based on things the software can't do like line value, momentum, experience and instinct.

I don't bet any games until Saturday, but, by Friday night I like to be set. Again all picks are good, bold picks are personal best picks, games with a high chance of winning. In another week or two there will be far fewer games. There just seems to be some strange matchups this year.
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irage
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#167
Posted: 9/22/2012 8:46:45 PM
Looking pretty good so far. Gardner-Webb lost, but there was no line on it anyway. Did anyone bet it?

W. Michigan is a winner
VMI is a winner.

Wyoming can win this. Let hope they get it done.

How about Miss?I told you they were good at -21. Tulane just has a really poor defense. The system picked Tulane, but I disagreed with the results. The computer doesn't always get it right, that's why we need a human filter.

I don't want to get to cocky, but I am feeling pretty dialed in right now. Each week is producing some good wins.

I'd love to know who everybody bet on today?
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#168
Posted: 9/22/2012 11:09:27 PM
I got Utah+5.5 only. I'm hoping they get it done
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#169
Posted: 9/22/2012 11:29:00 PM
2-3 day for me 
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#170
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:30:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by irage:

Looking pretty good so far. Gardner-Webb lost, but there was no line on it anyway. Did anyone bet it?

W. Michigan is a winner
VMI is a winner.

Wyoming can win this. Let hope they get it done.

How about Miss?I told you they were good at -21. Tulane just has a really poor defense. The system picked Tulane, but I disagreed with the results. The computer doesn't always get it right, that's why we need a human filter.

I don't want to get to cocky, but I am feeling pretty dialed in right now. Each week is producing some good wins.

I'd love to know who everybody bet on today?


VMI winner?   if you got it at 38 then you lucky you push...i'm sure the majority of us got it at 37, cause that what the line was so it actually a lost
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#171
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:45:35 AM
Well, not exactly how I would have liked to close the day. but 2 of the 3 best picks won.

WEEK FOUR
17 -16 - 0

SATURDAY
W. Michigan +1.5 WIN
Wyoming +2.5 WIN
N.C. St. -13.5 WIN
Texas St -2 WIN
VMI +38 PUSH
Gardner +42 LOSS
South Carolina St +51 LOSS
LSU -20.5 LOSS
North Texas 0 LOSS
Utah +7 LOSS
Alcorn St +46 LOSS
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irage
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#172
Posted: 9/23/2012 2:50:23 AM
I don't have any idea why I went with Utah. The computer picked them, but from what I've seen of them this year they will be lucky to get out of this season with 5 wins.

LSU being held by Auburn, you gotta be shitting me.
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#173
Posted: 9/25/2012 10:36:30 PM
These are games I have keyed in on. I will update again tomorrow.

WEEK FOUR
17 -16 - 0

SATURDAY
Michigan St. -1.5 PENDING
N.C. St. +3.5 PENDING
San Jose St. +1.5 PENDING
UTSA +7 PENDING
W. Kentucky +1.5 PENDING
Kent St. +2 PENDING
Duke +3 PENDING

These games have no lines, probably because these are odd match ups.

Army
Bowling Green
LSU
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#174
Posted: 9/26/2012 4:06:43 AM
Army -10.5
Bowling Green -26.5
LSU -48
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#175
Posted: 9/26/2012 10:33:20 PM
Several games have no switched to favorites. I have one game that is not a computer pick. Louisiana Tech -2.5. LT has a high octane offense and the only way Virginia is going to beat them is by outscoring them. Can't see it.

WEEK FIVE
17 -16 - 0

SATURDAY
Michigan St. -3 PENDING
San Jose St. -2.5 PENDING
Army -10.5 PENDING
Louisiana Tech -2.5 PENDING
N.C. St. +2.5 PENDING
W. Kentucky -2.5 PENDING
Kent St. +1 PENDING
Duke +3 PENDING
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