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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Super Systems
mattymeach31 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 7/16/2012 1:28:11 PM
You are right, my fault. I still had version 5 on my computer and had that open instead. Thank you for your time.
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#77
Posted: 7/16/2012 4:57:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Today's Plays

System #1 – Dominant Team Playing Better Now

NYY (A)

*CIN (A)

*Note: So the system says to lay off game #1 because ARI has a pitching edge on CIN today.  However, I’m making an executive decision.  ARI is ICE cold and CIN is luke warm.  The pitching matchup is not that far off.  So swing away on CIN.

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

DET (A)

TB (A)

CWS (A)

BAL (A)

** Note: You will also notice that the NYY are listed in system #4 and #6, and WAS is listed in system #6 – but it’s not a play – we won our “B” game.




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#78
Posted: 7/16/2012 7:31:37 PM
This is what I'm scared of DG. I dont know if its just me, I was hoping that CIN lost last night because I'm a believer of streak ends. They still won last night and now were down 4-0 I'm hoping for a comeback but its battle of streaks IMO. 
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#79
Posted: 7/16/2012 8:18:16 PM
Games not over yet only down by 2 now - I hope they win today - cuz they lost Votto - tough to chase em with a significant injury like that - not sure if I'll continue the chase
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#80
Posted: 7/16/2012 11:57:55 PM
It`s the bloody D-backs...darn 'em.
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#81
Posted: 7/17/2012 7:39:09 AM
Im desperate anyway. I'm chasing CIN, BAL, TAM, PIT.
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#82
Posted: 7/17/2012 9:41:40 AM

DG -

I updated my spreadsheet. Can you confirm these picks when you get a chance? I know you don't like tracking so I'm trying to get it down so maybe I can take it over.

System 4:

PHI (A)

* DET and NYY won so we are done those chases

** ATL, CHW, and BAL are off because because they don't have the pitcher edge.

System 6:

CIN (We bet this game yesterday, do we continue without Votto?)

* NYY won yesterday

How did I do?

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#83
Posted: 7/17/2012 10:30:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mattymeach31:

** ATL, CHW, and BAL are off because because they don't have the pitcher edge.



"Pitcher edge" doesn't even matter for System 4 unless maybe you're going up against Jared friggin Weaver.
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#84
Posted: 7/17/2012 11:56:46 AM
@mattymeach - I much appreciate it man - it would be fantastic if you could take it over.  With all the betting, and other automation projects on my plate - It's hard for me to make sure I post the plays on time. 

I am in the middle of typing up the thread with all the explanations - i'll will post shortly and let you know if your on the right track.
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#85
Posted: 7/17/2012 1:48:00 PM
Is the Pitcher's edge only for System 1?
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#86
Posted: 7/17/2012 2:03:20 PM

Yesterday's Plays

System #1 – Dominant Team Playing Better Now

NYY (A) - WON

*CIN (A) - LOST

*Note: So the system says to lay off game #1 because ARI has a pitching edge on CIN today.  However, I’m making an executive decision.  ARI is ICE cold and CIN is luke warm.  The pitching matchup is not that far off.  So swing away on CIN.

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

DET (A) - WON

TB (A) - LOST

CWS (A) - LOST

BAL (A) - LOST

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#87
Posted: 7/17/2012 2:51:34 PM

Today's Plays

System #1 – Dominant Team Playing Better Now

*CIN (B)

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

TB (B)

CWS (B)

BAL (B)

**ATL (A) – OPTIONAL

 

Now here are some notes on the other plays listed:

NYY are listed under system #1, #4 and #6.  We won our “A” game – so we are off the chase.  But totally unrelated to the systems – I like the matchup of CC vs a crappy TOR pitcher AND Bautista is hurt.  I personally am going to flat bet the yanks tonight.

PHI is listed under system #4 – they were not listed yesterday because they did not meet the criteria filter.  If they lost yesterday – I would definitely say we should play them – especially with Halladay on the mound – but they won – so we can’t chase them since this is a 2 game chase system.

**ATL – according to the PDF ATL is a play because it meets system #4 criteria and filters – however – there is an obvious pitching edge to SF – I will list the play as optional – take it – don’t take it – your choice

*CIN – now we all know CIN has an injury – I didn’t realize this until after I put in my bet.  I am on the fence about chasing them – with all systems – no significant injuries is a filter.  However,  CIN is listed as a play in system #1, #3, and #6 AND they have the pitching edge.  I am going to chase them – I leave it up to you guys to decide what you want to do.

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#88
Posted: 7/17/2012 3:02:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mattymeach31:

DG -

I updated my spreadsheet. Can you confirm these picks when you get a chance? I know you don't like tracking so I'm trying to get it down so maybe I can take it over.

System 4:

PHI (A)

* DET and NYY won so we are done those chases

** ATL, CHW, and BAL are off because because they don't have the pitcher edge.

System 6:

CIN (We bet this game yesterday, do we continue without Votto?)

* NYY won yesterday

How did I do?




Almost Mattymeach.....

We always continue the chase for the 2nd game - even if the team falls off the list.  So we would chase CWS, BAL, TB - even though TB fell off the list due to filters AND even though the pitching edge is not in our favor.

And you are correct - technically the pitching edge filter is only for system #1 - but who says when we START a chase for any of the systems - that the 1st game has to have the pitching edge?  That could help avoid unecessary "A" game losses.  Something to consider implementing - very good point.  Now the PDF does not have that "filter" but who says we can't implement it.

You are right about DET and NYY - we won - so we are off.

As far as PHI - unfortunately they won the first game in the series - like my notes in the other post - if they lost - it would a perfect time to pick up on them since they passed all the criteria today.  They were not listed yesterday because they didn't meet all the criteria.

As far as CIN - i'm leaving it up to personal choice to continue the chase or not.  I messed up and put my bet in not knowing Votto was out - should have caught that.  But with the CIn having the clear pitching edge today - I'm just gonna take them and finish the chase.  But I leave it up to you guys to decide what you want to do  
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#89
Posted: 7/17/2012 6:09:20 PM
Are these a 3 game chase? Or a 4 game chase?

Can someone just list the way that we are to bet on these, not the spreadsheet.

Thanks!
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#90
Posted: 7/17/2012 6:44:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by matt4000:

Are these a 3 game chase? Or a 4 game chase?

Can someone just list the way that we are to bet on these, not the spreadsheet.

Thanks!


@Matt4000

For each system - it's ALWAYS a 2 game chase.  Here are today's plays.

Today's Plays

System #1 – Dominant Team Playing Better Now

*CIN (B)

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

TB (B)

CWS (B)

BAL (B)

**ATL (A) – OPTIONAL


I will try to post just the plays in a post and then add my color commentary on why some plays that may be listed on the spreadsheet are or are not plays to make it clearer.  But I am a firm believer of providing information to help people understand "WHY" a play is a play and the theory behind - that way we can all look for ways to improve on the systems.  For example, MattyMeach brought up a good point today about looking for a pitcher edge for systems 2 through 6.  I think that's a good idea for the 1st game of the series.
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#91
Posted: 7/17/2012 6:49:37 PM
Thanks-will tail from now on!!!
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#92
Posted: 7/17/2012 10:02:37 PM
looking good guys....Sweet day.
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#93
Posted: 7/17/2012 10:55:05 PM
Xgame - please don't jinx us with early celebration :(
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#94
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:08:07 AM

Today's Plays

System #1 – Dominant Team Playing Better Now

*CIN (B) - WIN

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

TB (B) - WIN

CWS (B) - WIN

BAL (B) - LOSS

**ATL (A) – OPTIONAL - LOSS

Not a bad series - we went 5-1.  And from a unit perspective - if you didn't back out of CWS because they were a huge DOG -  - You know who you are.  Then you would have won about +4 units even though we lost both the A and B games on BAL.

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#95
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:09:36 AM

Since tracking started on 7/2

Record: 26-2

Units: +23 units

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#96
Posted: 7/18/2012 8:58:25 AM
Any plays DG? All hell broke loose again for me locally in my country. 
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#97
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:47:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

Any plays DG? All hell broke loose again for me locally in my country. 


Could be wrong but I'm pretty sure it's ATL B and CHC A
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#98
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:55:45 PM

Today's Plays

System #3 – Dominant Home team

CHC (A)

System #4 – Dominant Team Over Last 3 Years

*ATL (B) – OPTIONAL

 

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#99
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:56:29 PM
In addition ATL is kinda "optional" again as Vogelsong >>>>>>>> Minor, pitching isn't supposed to matter for System 4 though...
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#100
Posted: 7/18/2012 1:00:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



Could be wrong but I'm pretty sure it's ATL B and CHC A


You are right on the money CG


*ATL - BTW for those who took ATL as an "A" bet - it is still you're option to take ATL and a "B" bet.

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