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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Series Chases
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/29/2012 10:40:04 AM
We gave the Bottom 3 Chase to it's own thread where can be monitored along with other series that we'll be choosing to chase along the way. Also, a bookkeeping error has been corrected so my apologies for that.



Bottom 3 Chase

14-0 for +148.34
14-11-2 overall


Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -

HOU -1 (fade SD) (A game) 
Total risk = 10.50 to win 14.35 lost

WAS -1 (fade COL) (A game) 
Total risk = 12.25 to win 10.75 lost



So now, we have CHC hosting HOU and COL hosting SD. We'll play HOU to beat CHC and skip the SD/COL series. Those two teams will face B games when they each take on new series opponents.


Bottom 3 Plays

HOU +110 (fade CHC) (A game) 
Total risk = 10.00 to win 11.00



Bonus Series Chase
0-0 for +0
0-0-0 overall

The first Bonus Series Chase is on STL to beat visiting PIT by 2 or more runs in the next 3 games. The same rules as the Bottom 3 Chase apply, where each game is STL -1. PIT plays horrible on the road and is terrible against right handers while STL has a powerful offense and plays well at home. Hopefully we can scratch out a win here.



Bonus Series Play

STL -1 (fade PIT) (A game) 
Total risk = 15.00 to win 10.40



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#2
Posted: 6/29/2012 11:48:29 AM
After looking the COL/SD series over a little more, I think we should continue our SD fade into COL. SD does not play well on the road and the COL rockies lead all teams in AVG and RUNS at home. The COL fade will resume after the series is over.


COL -1 (fade SD) (B game) 
Total risk = 22.05 to win 20.70
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#3
Posted: 6/30/2012 7:57:50 AM
i think it would be better to stay with your original plan and skip the col/sd series all together. there's no rush
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#4
Posted: 6/30/2012 10:32:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by senbet:

i think it would be better to stay with your original plan and skip the col/sd series all together. there's no rush


I thought about skipping that series but there seemed to be enough of a mismatch to suggest a play. Fortunately, we won. I also think it might be good to continue with the SD fade while we keep the COL fade on hold until the end of that series.

Earlier this year, of the 2 times CHC won 3 in a row, once was to another Bottom 3 team, SD. The hosting CHC swept the 3 game series in late May before this system started. That series shows it's def not a good idea to play both sides, however, it should be okay to chase one team to lose. I do agree with you about skipping series with Bottom 3 teams meeting, tho. It should probably be considered on a case by case basis, too. I don't think I would have played that SD/CHC series.

Perhaps COL can sweep SD like the CHC did. They could get one of their 3 game winning streaks out of the way before we chase their fade again.


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#5
Posted: 6/30/2012 10:56:34 AM
Bottom 3 Chase
15-0 for +158.54
15-12-2 overall


Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -

HOU +110 (fade CHC) (A game) 
Total risk = 10.00 to win 11.00 lost

COL -1 (fade SD) (B game) 
Total risk = 22.05 to win 20.70 cashed



The CHC fade continues with a B game. The good news is they face HOU lefty JA Happ today. The bad news is Garza is starting for the CHC. Thus, we have a great price on this game IMO at +136. And as mentioned above, we will continue our chase on the SD fade. The fade on COL will pick up after that series when COL goes to WAS in 2 days.


Bottom 3 Plays

HOU +136 (fade CHC) (B game) 
Total risk = 15.00 to win 20.40

COL -1 (fade SD) (A game) 
Total risk = 10.75 to win 13.00



Bonus Series Chase
0-0 for +0
0-1-0 overall


STL took an early lead and then got crushed. Today they face Karstens today with his 2.00 WHIP and 9.00 ERA. I'm tempted to play the STL TT on the side with this one.


Bonus Series Play

STL -1 (fade PIT) (B game) 
Total risk = 37.70 to win 25.00



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#6
Posted: 7/1/2012 10:08:18 AM
Bottom 3 Chase
15-0 for +158.54
15-14-2 overall


Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -

HOU +136 (fade CHC) (B game) 
Total risk = 15.00 to win 20.40 lost

COL -1 (fade SD) (A game) 
Total risk = 10.75 to win 13.00 lost

 
Both a B and C game today.


Bottom 3 Plays

HOU +104 (fade CHC) C game) 
Total risk = 35.00 to win 36.40

COL -1 (fade SD) B game) 
Total risk = 22.50 to win 20.34



Bonus Series Chase
0-0 for +0
0-2-0 overall

Last night

STL -1 (fade PIT) (B game) 
Total risk = 37.70 to win 25.00 lost

Big game C on this one today.


Bonus Series Play

STL -1 (fade PIT) (C game) 
Total risk = 75.32 to win 61.88


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#7
Posted: 7/2/2012 12:31:44 PM
Bottom 3 Chase
15-1 for +98.54
15-16-2 overall


Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -

HOU +104 (fade CHC) C game) 
Total risk = 35.00 to win 36.40 series loss 60.00 total

COL -1 (fade SD) B game) 
Total risk = 22.50 to win 20.34 lost

 
We took in our first series loss on the CHC. They were all dog plays so we only lost a total of 60.00 thankfully. Today we have an A, B and C game. COL continues it's chase with a B game.


Bottom 3 Plays


ATL-1 (fade CHC) A game) 
Total risk = 14.00 to win 11.00

STL -1 (fade COL) B game) 
Total risk = 22.00 to win 22.21

ARI -1 (fade SD) C game) 
Total risk = 45.36 to win 42.48



Bonus Series Chase
0-1 for -52.70
0-2-1 overall

Last night

STL -1 (fade PIT) (C game) 
Total risk = 75.32 to win 61.88 push

With that series over, we are considering that chase a loss since we lost games A and B. Their losses totaled 52.70. Today we have two new series to chase for a win. First, red-hot PIT is hosting HOU and the LAA are in CLE tonight.


Bonus Series Plays

PIT -1 (A game) 
Total risk = 13.70 to win 11.40

LAA -1 (A game) 
Total risk = 11.50 to win 11.30

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#8
Posted: 7/3/2012 9:09:20 AM
Bottom 3 Chase
16-2 for +29.89
16-18-2 overall


Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -

ATL-1 (fade CHC) A game) 
Total risk = 14.00 to win 11.00 lost

STL -1 (fade COL) B game) 
Total risk = 22.00 to win 22.21 cashed

ARI -1 (fade SD) C game) 
Total risk = 45.36 to win 42.48 lost


 
SD won so we lost that C game. That series resets to Game A. CHC has a B game and COL is an A game.


Bottom 3 Plays


ATL-1 (fade CHC) B game) 
Total risk = 34.56 to win 25.32

STL -1 (fade COL) A game) 
Total risk = 12.45 to win 11.60

ARI -1 (fade SD) A game) 
Total risk = 12.70 to win 11.80



Bonus Series Chase
2-1 for -30.00
2-2-1 overall

Last night

PIT -1 (A game) 
Total risk = 13.70 to win 11.40 cashed

LAA -1 (A game) 
Total risk = 11.50 to win 11.30 cashed

Both series won on the A game. It'd be nice if they were all like that. Next we chase the NYM and WAS to win a game in the next series.


Bonus Series Plays

WAS -1 (A game) 
Total risk = 11.37 to win 13.75

NYM -1 (A game) 
Total risk = 10.85 to win 13.75


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#9
Posted: 7/4/2012 9:39:38 AM
Bottom 3 Chase
17-2 for +41.21
17-20-2 overall


Last night's Bottom 3 Plays -

ATL-1 (fade CHC) B game) 
Total risk = 34.56 to win 25.32 cashed

STL -1 (fade COL) A game) 
Total risk = 12.45 to win 11.60 lost

ARI -1 (fade SD) A game) 
Total risk = 12.70 to win 11.80 lost



Our Bottom 3 teams have been playing well lately, over .500 actually, so we may have to start picking our spots. We'll continue with the CHC chase since they're on the road. SD is hot now, so we'll be watching them closer and maybe play them by the series instead of every game.


Today's Bottom 3 Plays


ATL-1 (fade CHC) A game) 
Total risk = 13.25 to win 11.75

STL -1 (fade COL) B game) 
Total risk = 35.20 to win 22.55

ARI -1 (fade SD) B game) 
Total risk = 31.35 to win 23.65



Bonus Series Chase
4-1 for -2.50
4-2-1 overall

Last night

WAS -1 (A game) 
Total risk = 11.37 to win 13.75 cashed

NYM -1 (A game) 
Total risk = 10.85 to win 13.75 cashed


Both series won the A game. No plays for this one today.

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#10
Posted: 7/6/2012 9:36:48 AM
Series Chase
22-3 for 17.46
22-24-3 overall



Tuesday's Bottom 3 Plays -


ATL-1 (fade CHC) A game) 
Total risk = 13.25 to win 11.75 lost

STL -1 (fade COL) B game) 
Total risk = 35.20 to win 22.55 cashed

ARI -1 (fade SD) B game) 
Total risk = 31.35 to win 23.65 lost


I was unable to check in yesterday. Apologies for that. We are going to merge the two systems and play the Bottom 3 by the series instead of playing each consecutive game. Also, note that we are just chasing the ML now unless the odds are over -150 or so. We will continue the chase on CHC with a game B today and we are stopping the chase on SD, taking our losses on games A and B. They are playing great right now and they are at home so later days SD. There are also 3 new series chases to start so a nice card with 5 games for all the fellow degenerates who love the action like me.


Today's Plays -

NYM -1 (fade CHC) B game 
Total risk = 26.60 to win 24.10

WAS -1 (A game)
Total risk = 15.35 to win 10.05

STL ML (A game)
Total risk = 13.80 to win 10.00

TEX ML (A game)
Total risk = 14.50 to win 10.00

CHW ML (A game) 
Total risk = 15.00 to win 10.00




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#11
Posted: 7/6/2012 3:59:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jonnymega:

Series Chase
22-3 for 17.46
22-24-3 overall



Tuesday's Bottom 3 Plays -


ATL-1 (fade CHC) A game) 
Total risk = 13.25 to win 11.75 lost

STL -1 (fade COL) B game) 
Total risk = 35.20 to win 22.55 cashed

ARI -1 (fade SD) B game) 
Total risk = 31.35 to win 23.65 lost


I was unable to check in yesterday. Apologies for that. We are going to merge the two systems and play the Bottom 3 by the series instead of playing each consecutive game. Also, note that we are just chasing the ML now unless the odds are over -150 or so. We will continue the chase on CHC with a game B today and we are stopping the chase on SD, taking our losses on games A and B. They are playing great right now and they are at home so later days SD. There are also 3 new series chases to start so a nice card with 5 games for all the fellow degenerates who love the action like me.


Today's Plays -

NYM -1 (fade CHC) B game 
Total risk = 26.60 to win 24.10

WAS -1 (A game)
Total risk = 15.35 to win 10.05

STL ML (A game)
Total risk = 13.80 to win 10.00

TEX ML (A game)
Total risk = 14.50 to win 10.00

CHW ML (A game) 
Total risk = 15.00 to win 10.00




 

jonnymega - not that I disagree with your chases - but non of the opponents in the mtachups above are in the bottom 3 - Last 10 power rankings on teamrankings.com - has the system changed?  I think it was doing pretty well as a bottom 3 system.  Can you elaborate on the changes and the rationale behind them?

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#12
Posted: 7/6/2012 6:39:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

 

jonnymega - not that I disagree with your chases - but non of the opponents in the mtachups above are in the bottom 3 - Last 10 power rankings on teamrankings.com - has the system changed?  I think it was doing pretty well as a bottom 3 system.  Can you elaborate on the changes and the rationale behind them?




Hey my man, sorry for the confusion. Basically the Bottom 3 that we chased were from the Bottom 3 Overall Power Rankings from teamrankings.com, which are currently CHC, HOU and COL. It was SD, CHC and COL but SD has been playing good ball and moved out of the bottom 3, while HOU moved in. Right now we are only chasing CHC and COL to lose. Those two teams are playing the NYM and WAS, respectively, and are represented by the first two chases listed in my last post above. I'm choosing not to chase HOU as they are hosting MIL at home. I would not be shocked to see HOU go on a 3-game winning streak vs MIL (but prolly won't) so that is not a chase for me. The L10 chase turned out to be a loser so I dropped it. You may also notice there are 3 other chases besides the NYM (fade CHC) chase and the WAS (fade COL) chase. Those other 3 chases, STL, TEX, and CHW are just series chases that are over when we either win the chase or the series is over. I chose those 3 series in particular because STL is hosting lowly MIA, TEX is hosting MIN, and the CHW are hosting TOR. All of those teams have an excellent chance of winning at least one of their games in my opinion. I hope that clears things up for you. Thanks for any comments or ideas you may have, as I intend to keep this system fluid and open to changes.


Thx







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#13
Posted: 7/6/2012 6:54:48 PM
I would like to add, even tho I wouldn't chase this series, HOU looks like a great fade tonight. HOU has lost 6 straight and MIL's lineup owns HOU's JA Happ. Check out these MIL avgs vs Happ - Aoki .667, Weeks .545, Morgan .500, Ishikawa .500, Hart .444, Izturis .400 and Braun .300


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#14
Posted: 7/6/2012 6:59:16 PM
Sorry, I meant an 8 game losing streak. - 4 in PIT, 3 in CHC (that you may remember burned us last week) and one in SD
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#15
Posted: 7/6/2012 7:26:25 PM

Thanks for the clarification jonnymega.  totally makes sense now.  Didn't realize the STL, TEX, and CWS plays were bonus series.

I think the only think missing from your system is incorporating if a team you are either fading or playing to beat a team your are fading are either hot or cold.  You might think about incorporating L10 power rankings and ESPN's team OPS

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/61/sort/OPS/order/true

 

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#16
Posted: 7/6/2012 7:38:51 PM
Great point. I do consider that to some extent. It might be a good idea to build a small Sabermetric-model for this kind of thing. I think these spot series plays may have some potential.
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#17
Posted: 7/7/2012 9:27:30 AM
Series Chase
23-3 for 17.46
23-28-3 overall



Yesterday's Plays -

NYM -1 (fade CHC) B game 
Total risk = 26.60 to win 24.10 lost

WAS -1 (A game)
Total risk = 15.35 to win 10.05 lost

STL ML (A game)
Total risk = 13.80 to win 10.00 lost

TEX ML (A game)
Total risk = 14.50 to win 10.00 lost

CHW ML (A game) 
Total risk = 15.00 to win 10.00 cashed




Today's Plays -


NYM ML (fade CHC) C game 
Total risk = 65.70 to win 45.00

WAS -1 (B game)
Total risk = 52.00 to win 25.32

STL ML (B game)
Total risk = 35.52 to win 24.00

TEX -1 (B game)
Total risk = 34.92 to win 24.84


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#18
Posted: 7/7/2012 1:15:08 PM

jonnymega - I automated this.  It pulls in the bottom 3 from teamrankings.com and it displays those teams L10 rankings and where they are trending up and down - and it grabs their OPS data from ESPN - so you can see if the team is batting hot or not.  Plus you can save the games in the play tracker tab by clicking the "Save Plays" button.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbRW1aY3NEUjdHcW8

Now just so anyone reading this - does not think i'm playing favorites - since many people have asked me to automate many systems - this was very very easy to do - I had most of the code already since I did something similar with teamrankings and ESPN - it literally took me less than an hour to put this together.  So for those that requested me to automate a system - I have not forgot about you guys - i'll PM you when I have some time.

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#19
Posted: 7/7/2012 3:39:00 PM
Damn, they all lost yesterday, I had all or most either straight or parlayed.  only winner I had was Detroit.
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#20
Posted: 7/7/2012 7:20:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

Damn, they all lost yesterday, I had all or most either straight or parlayed.  only winner I had was Detroit.


Hope - you stuck with it Shadow - all "B" games cashed today - with TEX pending.
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#21
Posted: 7/7/2012 8:32:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

jonnymega - I automated this.  It pulls in the bottom 3 from teamrankings.com and it displays those teams L10 rankings and where they are trending up and down - and it grabs their OPS data from ESPN - so you can see if the team is batting hot or not.  Plus you can save the games in the play tracker tab by clicking the "Save Plays" button.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbRW1aY3NEUjdHcW8

Now just so anyone reading this - does not think i'm playing favorites - since many people have asked me to automate many systems - this was very very easy to do - I had most of the code already since I did something similar with teamrankings and ESPN - it literally took me less than an hour to put this together.  So for those that requested me to automate a system - I have not forgot about you guys - i'll PM you when I have some time.




nice Dgen. you're going to have to teach me how you do that garbage. I know some code and excel so I'm prolly pretty close.




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#22
Posted: 7/7/2012 8:33:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

Damn, they all lost yesterday, I had all or most either straight or parlayed.  only winner I had was Detroit.



CHW won but, yeah, yesterday sucked.
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#23
Posted: 7/7/2012 8:35:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:



Hope - you stuck with it Shadow - all "B" games cashed today - with TEX pending.



that fukkin NYM game was huge. C'mon TEX!!


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#24
Posted: 7/7/2012 8:40:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnymega:




that fukkin NYM game was huge. C'mon TEX!!




Not as huge as that WAS game.....that was a ton of juice.
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#25
Posted: 7/7/2012 8:44:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:



Not as huge as that WAS game.....that was a ton of juice.


Word.

BTW, today's post had an error. I didn't include the CHW win from last night. Shoulda read:

Series Chase
23-3 for 27.46
23-28-3 overall

2 on for TEX  cmon you ratbastards!


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