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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: For All Sabermetrics Genuises:
jaybosstein
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jaybosstein
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#1
Posted: 6/2/2012 10:48:36 PM
What do you do to determine the outcome of a baseball game?
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DegenGamble
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#2
Posted: 6/2/2012 10:58:24 PM

Take a look at all the various run estimators out there.

http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Category:Run_estimators

The ones you will here about the most are

Runs Created and Base Runs
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#3
Posted: 6/4/2012 2:19:02 PM
Nice link Degen. I was looking through it and I think the best way to predict it is to take an average of the run estimators then multiply that by a certain opposing pitcher factor. I was thinking of maybe taking the natural log of ERC and multiplying that by the avg runs estimated. Ill post an example later
Posted using a mobile device.
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DegenGamble
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#4
Posted: 7/25/2012 10:20:05 PM

I need help with the Base Formula:

A = H + W + HBP - HR - .5*IW
B = (1.4*TB - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*(W + HBP - IW) + .9*(SB - CS - GDP))*1.1
C = AB - H + CS + GDP
D = HR

BR = A*B/(B + C) + D

So assuming you use batter career stats versus the opposing starting pitcher

I think the end result is the total Base Runs that the batter creates if the player batted all 9 positions in the lineup.

So how would I figure out how many Base Runs the batter would produce if only batting 1 spot in the lineup.

Can I just divide by 9? 

Do I just divide the the Base Runs by number of At Bats and then multiple by the typical number At Bats a player has per game? (i.e. 3 or 4)  
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#5
Posted: 7/26/2012 8:17:19 AM
I don't think you can divide by 9. The wiki page talked about manipulating BR for an individual batter. It said to use the batter you are interested in and 8 other average players.

What I would do is I would find the league average for every single stat above. I would use those numbers for 8 players and use the batter's stats for the batter you're interested in. I would add the numbers up for the 9 players for each stat and use that in the calculation.

Then I would create a sort of base figure. I would take the league average and apply it to 9 players. That would be an average team.

You would take the BR with your batter and subtract the league avg BR which should give you the runs your batter created.
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#6
Posted: 7/26/2012 11:03:38 AM

Thanks Marko - makes sense - I have it calculating individual stats and it's coming up with HUGE base run numbers right now.

Math is definitely not my forte.....
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#7
Posted: 9/4/2012 1:22:33 AM
you guys can do all the math you want, but you will never beat Vegas's math.  
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