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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY
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#901
Posted: 8/22/2012 10:19:04 AM

You're correct on 2 "potential" plays Riceman.

1) Was, I am guessing is your possibly 3 play. They are a no go. Atl is already outside the -110 limit and to be honest the line move has been so fast, I expect it to keep going. Was opened at -102 and is now +106. Thats quick, considering its not even noon. Plus, they don't have the picthing advantage.

2) LAD are a definite play right now. They have fluctuated between +100 and +103, they have the recent pitching advantage and they are playing NOT to get swept.

3) Cin is a probable play. They meet the line requiremets, no sweep, they are the away team and they have a pitching advantage. I say probable because of one thing - Arroyo has been lit up historically against the Philies. He got shelled twice last year, and I mean shelled, and in 2010 he pitched once against themand gave up 3 in 5 innings. So, if Cin stays within the +110 then I will probably go half a unit.

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#902
Posted: 8/22/2012 6:53:45 PM
Cin half
LAD full

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#903
Posted: 8/22/2012 9:00:21 PM
Sooo SF just became the dog..... *awkward silence*...


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#904
Posted: 8/23/2012 11:18:12 AM

Hey CG, Ya, awkward silence is right. I posted, put my bets in and was in bed by 9pm EST. LAD definitely shouldn't have been a play but, I was not around to update or check-in.

I took it in the shorts. If anyone was paying attention, they should have seen the late line movement and stayed away.

Either way, unreal that LAD didn't show up. In a game they really needed to win.

Oh well, if you stayed away from LAD, then you are up on Cin, if not, you are like me and down a half unit for the day.

 

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#905
Posted: 8/23/2012 11:22:23 AM

I'll try and keep laying out the parameters each day but, people are going to have to pay attention to line moves. I am not always at a computer at 7pm or 10pm.

Today the Red Sox look like a play. They are +100 right now, they are trying to avoid a sweep and they have a 2 run era pitcher advantage. Keep an eye on the line but, if at game time they are still a short dog, they are a full unit play.

Cincy is a +105 to -111 dog right now. If Phil comes down a bit, then Cincy would be a half unit play, as there is no pitcher advantage today.

Again, I may not be near a computer at 7pm sp check the lines.

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#906
Posted: 8/24/2012 12:52:10 AM
Cincy was a half unit loss tonight. Tough one in extras.

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#907
Posted: 8/24/2012 3:16:22 PM
Bal and Mil would both be half unit plays pending line moves, although they haven't really moved all day.
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#908
Posted: 8/25/2012 2:51:51 PM
lots of potential plays. which ones you playing BigTen? im thinking about Nats and Reds if the line on STL moves down a little
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#909
Posted: 8/26/2012 11:57:33 AM
WAS now a play load up boys
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#910
Posted: 8/26/2012 2:11:19 PM
Wasn't around at all yesterday...family wedding.

I'll be on the Cubs today for a half unit.

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#911
Posted: 8/26/2012 5:57:01 PM
ATL gonna be a play today?
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#912
Posted: 8/26/2012 6:26:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by riceman003:

ATL gonna be a play today?


I'm not BTW but I'm going to say yes.  Visitor, dog, Hudson >>> Lincecum.  Seems like a solid play.
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#913
Posted: 8/26/2012 7:25:26 PM
I hope you guys got on the Cubs. Looks like it is over.

I am wary of the Braves. Half unit at most. No real pitcher adv. I'll probably splash a half unit if SF stays under -110.

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#914
Posted: 8/26/2012 8:42:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

I hope you guys got on the Cubs. Looks like it is over.

I am wary of the Braves. Half unit at most. No real pitcher adv. I'll probably splash a half unit if SF stays under -110.



Are you kidding me??

Do explain.
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#915
Posted: 8/27/2012 7:10:19 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



Are you kidding me??

Do explain.

Your assumption of a pitcher advantage, in my opinion, is based on your observations/opinions areound Lincecum. Irage's definition of pitcher advantage was based purely on ERA - season and last 3. In this case, Atl had the yearly advanatge, but SF had the last 3 advantage. Soooo, that means no definitive advantage. I am trying to go purely from what I know of Irage's filters - no subjectivity.

Either way, it was a half unit win, or a full unit win if you were anti-Lincecum. 

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#916
Posted: 8/27/2012 7:23:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Hey CG, sorry dude, CHW was never a play, game was a no play. Good thing too.

LAD cashed. There is no way I am going back to the beginning of Irage's posts for a record but, I started keeping track last week. Since I started posting in this thread, we are 5-2 for profit of $255.50 on $100 unit.

Bos (half) +101 L -50
Stl (h) +101 W +50.50
Col (full) +102 W +102
Tor (f) +101 L -100
Tex (f) -101 W +101
Oak (h) +100 W +50
LAD (f) +103 W +103
 Total = +255.50
 

Continued from post 890, I'll try and update a record once a week.

+255.50

Pit (full)+131 -100.00

CHW (half)-103 +50

CHW (half) -101 +50

Cin (half) +105 +52.50

LAD (full) -100 line changed last minute, I posted LAD, hope you stayed away)

Cin (half)+105,  +52.50

Bal (half) -103 +50

Mil (half) +108, +54

CHC (half) +106, +53

ATL (half) -101, +50

New total = 13-4, +467.50

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#917
Posted: 8/27/2012 7:27:30 AM

CHW is looking like a half unit play today.

KC may become a play, they are close now. If the price comes down on Boston, KC would be a full unit play.

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#918
Posted: 8/27/2012 10:38:47 AM
I think ARI should be a play if they become the dog.  Arroyo isn't amazing and I find it odd that the line is even considering ARI just got swept by the Pads.  I've been hearing ridiculous things that the D-backs are getting less than 20% of the bets as well and the line hasn't budged.  Me thinks Vegas knows something that we don't.
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#919
Posted: 8/27/2012 10:57:40 AM
Also what's funny is your half unit plays are doing better than your full unit plays.

I say we just make all units full. A play is a play!!
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#920
Posted: 8/27/2012 11:22:02 AM

Hey CG, I noticed that too (about the weight of the units) when I was updating the results this morning. Crazy, huh? My initial reasoning for that was, the half unit plays are simply my twist to the strategy. All of those plays would have been filtered out by Irage. So, I was a little nervous starting out. You might be right though, could be time to ramp it up.

I agree with you, by the way, regarding Arizona. Skaggs might eb find for them as well.

One more thing CG, I see you are not keeping up the totals strategy you posted. I have been following it on my own and I am on the TB/TEx u today. I hope you keep that thread up.

Lastly, for today, this afternoon KC looks like a play. The line has stayed around Bos -110 and has recently dropped to KC +102, Bos -108. There is even more of a movement at Bet365 (where I bet), I just locked in KC at even money. I am locking in KC now and posting because I won't be near a computer this afternoon (work). With the direction of the line I don't see Boston climbing back over -110 and I don't think public perception will allow KC to eb a favorite. So, I feel pretty comfortable locking this in. FULL unit play - just for CG!

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#921
Posted: 8/27/2012 3:55:52 PM
Well, that's a shame about KC.  They kinda fell out of range last minute though...I went with them anyways as I felt Hochevar > Matsuzaka.  More games tonight.

Seems like TEX has made a case to be a play today.  Dunno if they have the pitching adv. but they're currently sitting at +103
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#922
Posted: 8/27/2012 5:37:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CannedGoods:

Well, that's a shame about KC.  They kinda fell out of range last minute though...I went with them anyways as I felt Hochevar > Matsuzaka.  More games tonight.

Seems like TEX has made a case to be a play today.  Dunno if they have the pitching adv. but they're currently sitting at +103

Wow, just checking in before I leave work. Jesus, lessen learned. Don't put in the play before game time. Second time in 4 four days I have made this mistake - just like with the Dodgers last Friday. I relaly read this line wrong, it was moving in KC's direction all day - then last 25 minutes, it was all BoSox and took us out of the filter range. Too bad I already put a full $100 down on it at even money. Oh well, lessen learned - no more early bets.

Tex does make the line filter Goods but, I am going to stay away. The pitching advantage is one of the biggest I have seen since Irage started this. Price has a full run better ERA over the season and over the last three Price's ERA is under 1.00. It's insane. I don't think I can back Tex despite the line.

Cincy is another option. They are currently +104 to -110 vs Arizona. I will be on this for a half unit if they lines stay similar. Arroyo doe snot have an advantage over Skraggs but, Skraggs only has one start. Arroyo does have some good things to consider tonight though. He is a full run better at night vs. day and he is a full run better away from home. Again, I will watch the line and check back before first pitch but, I should be on Cincy.

 

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#923
Posted: 8/27/2012 7:13:15 PM
NO MORE HALF UNIT PLAYS

I'll be avoiding Cincy...that alone should make it cash I just don't bet guys who don't have at least 15/20 innings under their belt.  This Skraggs kid looks good to boot.  Even with lesser pimped prospects (Fiers comes to mind) I got burned so I just stay away from all of them.  BOL tho
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#924
Posted: 8/28/2012 10:26:03 AM
If the PIT line moves, I'm gonna be all over that. I might bet it anyways. McDonald's a beast.
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#925
Posted: 8/28/2012 11:53:21 AM
I take that back about McDonald.  He's faded along with his team (last few starts have been garbage). Hoping the CIN/ARI line stays where it is tho.  Miley is an animal and I'll gladly drop coin on him as a home dog.
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