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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Has anyone ever tried chasing -2.5 runline?
shawnboskie
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shawnboskie
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#26
Posted: 5/30/2012 10:48:32 AM

0-3 yesterday

current balance 127.40

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shawnboskie
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#27
Posted: 5/30/2012 10:53:34 AM

Skipping Oakland today but still gonna chase Braves and Marlins

Atlanta  9 /  24.30

Miami  4 / 8.80

 

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shawnboskie
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#28
Posted: 5/30/2012 8:35:34 PM
Game 5 on Atlanta and Game 3 on Miami
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shawnboskie
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#29
Posted: 5/30/2012 10:20:27 PM

1-1  +20.30

Current balance 147.70

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shawnboskie
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#30
Posted: 6/1/2012 11:43:06 AM

Game 1  Boston  2 / 4.80

Game 1  NYY  2 / 3.10

Game 1  Cubs  1 / 4.55

Game 1  Astros  1 / 3.60

Game 1  Tampa Bay  2 / 4

Game 3  Oakland  4 / 14.50

Game 4  Miami  7 / 17.15

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shawnboskie
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#31
Posted: 6/3/2012 2:40:26 PM

3-4 Friday  -1.10

Balance 146.60

Havent been home to post my pics which sux cuz I hit the oakland chase but I did lose another one on miami. Didnt make it here in time to chase my miami bet again today either.  Either way I will make more plays tomorrow.

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shawnboskie
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#32
Posted: 6/4/2012 7:26:30 PM

Game 1  Oakland 1 / 3.80

Game 1  LAA  2 / 4.60

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shawnboskie
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#33
Posted: 6/5/2012 11:29:30 AM

Game 1  Phil  1 / 2

Game 1  Atlanta  1 / 3.10

Game 1  San Fran  2 / 5.20

Game 2  Cubs  2 / 7.30

Game 2  Astros  1 / 4.20

Game 2  LAA  3 / 6.30

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shawnboskie
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#34
Posted: 6/5/2012 11:30:37 AM

Forgot to post balance

1-1 last night (+1.80)

Current balance 148.40

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#35
Posted: 6/5/2012 12:21:19 PM
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#36
Posted: 6/5/2012 4:53:47 PM
too bad my book only has -2.5 rl for fav teams, like today you have -2.5 cubs,atlanta , astros,, they are +2.5 in my book
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shawnboskie
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#37
Posted: 6/5/2012 9:32:22 PM
Ya Erb those underdogs -2.5 are good bets sometimes and they pay very well. 
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shawnboskie
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#38
Posted: 6/6/2012 7:10:36 AM

3-3  +12.70

Balance 161.10

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shawnboskie
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#39
Posted: 6/6/2012 1:58:26 PM

Game 1  Wash  1 / 2.20

Game 1  Cubs  1 / 5.35

Game 2  San Fran  4 / 8

Game 3  Astros  1 / 4.45

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#40
Posted: 6/6/2012 6:40:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shawnboskie:

Thanks for the advice Tim but Im still gonna try it. I wonder if anyone can look up to see what the longest streak any team has ever gone without covering the -2.5 run spread. This year theres been a couple of teams who went 13 or 14 games without covering it. Im sure there has been some longer streaks in the past, especially with bad teams. But with bad teams, im not starting the chase til 6,7,or 8 in a row, it just depends who the team is. It seems to me that chasing + money is the way to go since you dont have to put as much up on the next bet as if you would a -110 bet.  Most of the -2.5 runlines are +200 or greater so why not try.

"Why not try?" 
Answer: Because it's a losing proposition.

Chase systems are flawed from the beginning and that is with the money line/spread. Adding in the run line component and you are really asking for trouble.

Chase systems are doomed over the long run due to the outlier event (black swan) that will bankrupt your bankroll. Requiring the -2.5 simply pushes up the timeline and increases the frequency of such an outlier event. 

May I be so bold as to suggest actually doing some research and to mathematically determine which team "should" win, then combine that with solid money management rules? Maybe then you can generate some sustainable cash flow.

Just some thoughts...
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shawnboskie
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#41
Posted: 6/6/2012 6:53:42 PM

Thanks for the advice Alpha and I do know what you are talking about. One thing I am doing if you havent noticed is sometimes once I start a chase, i dont always chase the next game after that. Sometimes I may wait 2 or more games but I think this helps some of my losses.  Sure there will be games that will hit when I decide to lay off, which has already happened, but I will stop that chase if that happens and take a loss.  At least its not bankrupting me.

Anyway, Im gonna keep riding it out and see where it takes me. I do appreciate the words of wisdom though

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shawnboskie
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#42
Posted: 6/7/2012 10:20:26 AM

0-4  (-7.00)

Balance 154.10

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shawnboskie
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#43
Posted: 6/7/2012 11:05:31 AM

Game 1  Balt 1 / 3.10

Game 1  Miami  1 / 2.50

Game 2  Wash  2 / 8.10

Game 2  Phil  2 / 4

Game 2  Cubs  2 / 5.10

Game 3  San Fran  6 / 11.40

Game 4  Hou  2 / 10.40

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shawnboskie
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#44
Posted: 6/8/2012 9:13:39 AM

1-6  +1.40

Current balance 155.50

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shawnboskie
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#45
Posted: 6/8/2012 11:42:09 AM

Game 1  Royals  1 / 3.25

Game 2  Orioles  3 / 7.35

Game 2  Marlins  2 / 5.70

Game 3  Wash  3 / 7.20

Game 5  Astros  4 / 12.40

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shawnboskie
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#46
Posted: 6/8/2012 2:57:38 PM

Adding:

Game 1  Detroit  1 / 2.95

Game 1  Seattle  1 / 2.55

Game 3  Cubs  3 / 9

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shawnboskie
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#47
Posted: 6/9/2012 10:39:09 AM

2-6  +8.60

Current balance 164.10

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shawnboskie
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#48
Posted: 6/9/2012 1:45:09 PM

Game 2  Royals 2 / 7.30

Game 2 Detroit  2 / 3.60

Game 2  Seattle  2 / 8.80

Game 3  Orioloes  4 / 11.20

Game 3  Marlins  3 / 8.55

Game 4  Cubs  4 / 11.40

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shawnboskie
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#49
Posted: 6/9/2012 11:39:53 PM

0-6  -17

Current balance 147.10

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shawnboskie
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#50
Posted: 6/10/2012 11:05:57 AM

Game 3  Det  3 / 7.65

Game 3  Royals  3 / 7.80

Game 3  Seattle  3 / 9.30

Game 4  Marlins  4 / 11.20

Game 4  Orioles  4 / 16

Game 5  Cubs 6 / 16.20

quote
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