Posted: 6/6/2012 6:40:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shawnboskie:
Thanks for the advice Tim but Im still gonna try it. I wonder if anyone can look up to see what the longest streak any team has ever gone without covering the -2.5 run spread. This year theres been a couple of teams who went 13 or 14 games without covering it. Im sure there has been some longer streaks in the past, especially with bad teams. But with bad teams, im not starting the chase til 6,7,or 8 in a row, it just depends who the team is. It seems to me that chasing + money is the way to go since you dont have to put as much up on the next bet as if you would a -110 bet. Most of the -2.5 runlines are +200 or greater so why not try.
"Why not try?"
Answer: Because it's a losing proposition.
Chase systems are flawed from the beginning and that is with the money line/spread. Adding in the run line component and you are really asking for trouble.
Chase systems are doomed over the long run due to the outlier event (black swan) that will bankrupt your bankroll. Requiring the -2.5 simply pushes up the timeline and increases the frequency of such an outlier event.
May I be so bold as to suggest actually doing some research and to mathematically determine which team "should" win, then combine that with solid money management rules? Maybe then you can generate some sustainable cash flow.
Just some thoughts...