Has anyone ever tried chasing -2.5 runline?

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Has anyone ever tried chasing -2.5 runline?
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/22/2012 6:23:32 PM

Im gonna try it out for practice before I use real money though. I will start a chase after they havent covered the -2.5 runline for a certain number of games.  It will depend on the team and how many in a row they have lost before I start a chase.  Im gonna start with 100 units so here we go:

Orioles  1 unit to win 3.25

Pirates  2 to win 5.30

Phillies  2 /5.10

Rockies  1 /3.15

Cubs  2 / 5.90

Cardinals  2 / 4.90

Dbacks  2 / 4.80

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/23/2012 8:42:57 AM

2-5 last night with a loss of (.85 units)

Current balance 99.15 units

Will post plays shortly

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/23/2012 10:14:19 AM

Game 2 Pirates -2.5  3 / 9.30

Game 2 Phillies  3 / 7.20

Game 1  Braves  1 / 2.20

other games will be posted as soon as there is a line

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/23/2012 12:32:45 PM

Game 2 Rockies  3 / 10.05

Game 2 Cubs  3 / 9.75

Game 2 Dbacks  3 / 9

Game 1  Yankees  1 / 1.70

Game 1 Padres  1 / 5.25

timmehop PM timmehop
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Posted: 5/23/2012 6:10:35 PM
-2.5 has no value in the long run because the juice/vig is too high. It may seem like you are making lot of money when you win a few bets but in the long run the losses will not be there and the wins will not be enough to catch up with the vig.

Best way to profit is playing money line in baseball, especially value dog lines. Also, alternate runline has some good value but -2.5 has no value in the long run. There is a nice in depth article about this topic at bettingresource, look it up.
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/23/2012 8:29:48 PM
Thanks for the advice Tim but Im still gonna try it. I wonder if anyone can look up to see what the longest streak any team has ever gone without covering the -2.5 run spread. This year theres been a couple of teams who went 13 or 14 games without covering it. Im sure there has been some longer streaks in the past, especially with bad teams. But with bad teams, im not starting the chase til 6,7,or 8 in a row, it just depends who the team is. It seems to me that chasing + money is the way to go since you dont have to put as much up on the next bet as if you would a -110 bet.  Most of the -2.5 runlines are +200 or greater so why not try.
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/24/2012 7:12:27 AM

4-4 last night with a profit of +19.95.

Current balance 119.10

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/24/2012 9:55:27 AM

Game 2 Padres  1 / 2.65

Game 2  Braves  2 / 5.10

Game 1  Indians  1 / 5.75

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/24/2012 10:54:51 PM
Ok I did some backtesting on a few of the good teams and bad teams in 2011 and I didnt like the results.  Houston went 26 in  a row, atlanta went 21 games, pitt and san diego both had 18 in  a row.  However, yankees and rangers both neither went over 10 in a row.  Im definitely gonna limit my team selection and i may even stop on a chase if I dont like the way things are looking for that team.  Anyway, Im sure Tim was right about this not working out too good but Im still gonna try it and if I fail, I fail.
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/25/2012 9:17:11 AM

1-2 last night with a loss of (-.35)

Current balance 118.75

the_vig PM the_vig
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Posted: 5/25/2012 3:56:21 PM
Have you thought about doing -2 for more of a safety net?  Sure the payout is a little lower but it could save you a lot of money in the end.
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/25/2012 4:33:11 PM
Not a bad idea Vig but my book doesnt offer -2 runline
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/25/2012 4:38:16 PM

Im not chasing the first game of cubs/pirates since they both fit my chase rules.  So gonna just wait for one to win by 3 and then go with the other to continue chase. If they play whole series without a 3+ run game, then Im happy that way too. Heres todays games:

Game 1  Mets  1 / 2.90

Game 1  Tigers  1 / 1.85

Game 2  Indians  2 / 4.80

Game 3  Braves  3 / 6.75

 

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/25/2012 11:41:05 PM

2-2 tonight with loss of (-.25)

Current balance 118.50

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/25/2012 11:44:24 PM

Gonna pass on cubs/pirates game again tomorrow.  Also gonna pass on Atlanta tomorrow (didnt realize they had a few key injuries) but mainly because of Strasburg. So I have 1 play tomorrow:

Game 3  Indians 3 / 7.50

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/26/2012 10:27:24 PM

0-1  with loss of (-3)

current balance 115.50

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/27/2012 12:49:05 PM
Game 4 Indians  5 / 14.50
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/27/2012 9:20:01 PM
0-1  Balance 110.50
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/28/2012 9:57:51 AM

Game 1 Marlins  1 / 2.40

Game 1 Red Sox  2 / 4.60

Game 5  Indians  7 / 16.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/28/2012 10:00:53 AM
Im also betting Cubs(Game 3) today for 5 and Oakland (Game 1) for 1.  There is no lines yet for each of these but im assuming they will both be around +300.
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/28/2012 10:49:07 AM

Game 3 Cubs 5 / 9.50

Game 1 Oakland  1 / 2.60

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/28/2012 7:17:59 PM

3-2  +28.90

Current Balance 139.40

fija1001 PM fija1001
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Posted: 5/28/2012 9:26:30 PM
At the vig. So could betting the -1.5 or -1. He is doing -2.5 and he is making a good profit. Why not do +2 or +2.5 for the reason your saying? Just let him do what he set out to do.
shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/29/2012 12:23:53 PM

Game 4  Braves 6 / 16.80

Game 2  Oakland  3 / 6.60

Game 2  Miami  3 / 7.50

shawnboskie PM shawnboskie
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Posted: 5/29/2012 12:24:53 PM
Thanks fija
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