Messages

Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Has anyone ever tried chasing -2.5 runline?
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#1
Posted: 5/22/2012 6:23:32 PM

Im gonna try it out for practice before I use real money though. I will start a chase after they havent covered the -2.5 runline for a certain number of games.  It will depend on the team and how many in a row they have lost before I start a chase.  Im gonna start with 100 units so here we go:

Orioles  1 unit to win 3.25

Pirates  2 to win 5.30

Phillies  2 /5.10

Rockies  1 /3.15

Cubs  2 / 5.90

Cardinals  2 / 4.90

Dbacks  2 / 4.80

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#2
Posted: 5/23/2012 8:42:57 AM

2-5 last night with a loss of (.85 units)

Current balance 99.15 units

Will post plays shortly

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#3
Posted: 5/23/2012 10:14:19 AM

Game 2 Pirates -2.5  3 / 9.30

Game 2 Phillies  3 / 7.20

Game 1  Braves  1 / 2.20

other games will be posted as soon as there is a line

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#4
Posted: 5/23/2012 12:32:45 PM

Game 2 Rockies  3 / 10.05

Game 2 Cubs  3 / 9.75

Game 2 Dbacks  3 / 9

Game 1  Yankees  1 / 1.70

Game 1 Padres  1 / 5.25

quote
timmehop send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
timmehop
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 1
Location:
#5
Posted: 5/23/2012 6:10:35 PM
-2.5 has no value in the long run because the juice/vig is too high. It may seem like you are making lot of money when you win a few bets but in the long run the losses will not be there and the wins will not be enough to catch up with the vig.

Best way to profit is playing money line in baseball, especially value dog lines. Also, alternate runline has some good value but -2.5 has no value in the long run. There is a nice in depth article about this topic at bettingresource, look it up.
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#6
Posted: 5/23/2012 8:29:48 PM
Thanks for the advice Tim but Im still gonna try it. I wonder if anyone can look up to see what the longest streak any team has ever gone without covering the -2.5 run spread. This year theres been a couple of teams who went 13 or 14 games without covering it. Im sure there has been some longer streaks in the past, especially with bad teams. But with bad teams, im not starting the chase til 6,7,or 8 in a row, it just depends who the team is. It seems to me that chasing + money is the way to go since you dont have to put as much up on the next bet as if you would a -110 bet.  Most of the -2.5 runlines are +200 or greater so why not try.
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#7
Posted: 5/24/2012 7:12:27 AM

4-4 last night with a profit of +19.95.

Current balance 119.10

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#8
Posted: 5/24/2012 9:55:27 AM

Game 2 Padres  1 / 2.65

Game 2  Braves  2 / 5.10

Game 1  Indians  1 / 5.75

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#9
Posted: 5/24/2012 10:54:51 PM
Ok I did some backtesting on a few of the good teams and bad teams in 2011 and I didnt like the results.  Houston went 26 in  a row, atlanta went 21 games, pitt and san diego both had 18 in  a row.  However, yankees and rangers both neither went over 10 in a row.  Im definitely gonna limit my team selection and i may even stop on a chase if I dont like the way things are looking for that team.  Anyway, Im sure Tim was right about this not working out too good but Im still gonna try it and if I fail, I fail.
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#10
Posted: 5/25/2012 9:17:11 AM

1-2 last night with a loss of (-.35)

Current balance 118.75

quote
the_vig send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
the_vig
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 557
Location:
#11
Posted: 5/25/2012 3:56:21 PM
Have you thought about doing -2 for more of a safety net?  Sure the payout is a little lower but it could save you a lot of money in the end.
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#12
Posted: 5/25/2012 4:33:11 PM
Not a bad idea Vig but my book doesnt offer -2 runline
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#13
Posted: 5/25/2012 4:38:16 PM

Im not chasing the first game of cubs/pirates since they both fit my chase rules.  So gonna just wait for one to win by 3 and then go with the other to continue chase. If they play whole series without a 3+ run game, then Im happy that way too. Heres todays games:

Game 1  Mets  1 / 2.90

Game 1  Tigers  1 / 1.85

Game 2  Indians  2 / 4.80

Game 3  Braves  3 / 6.75

 

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#14
Posted: 5/25/2012 11:41:05 PM

2-2 tonight with loss of (-.25)

Current balance 118.50

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#15
Posted: 5/25/2012 11:44:24 PM

Gonna pass on cubs/pirates game again tomorrow.  Also gonna pass on Atlanta tomorrow (didnt realize they had a few key injuries) but mainly because of Strasburg. So I have 1 play tomorrow:

Game 3  Indians 3 / 7.50

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#16
Posted: 5/26/2012 10:27:24 PM

0-1  with loss of (-3)

current balance 115.50

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#17
Posted: 5/27/2012 12:49:05 PM
Game 4 Indians  5 / 14.50
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#18
Posted: 5/27/2012 9:20:01 PM
0-1  Balance 110.50
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#19
Posted: 5/28/2012 9:57:51 AM

Game 1 Marlins  1 / 2.40

Game 1 Red Sox  2 / 4.60

Game 5  Indians  7 / 16.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#20
Posted: 5/28/2012 10:00:53 AM
Im also betting Cubs(Game 3) today for 5 and Oakland (Game 1) for 1.  There is no lines yet for each of these but im assuming they will both be around +300.
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#21
Posted: 5/28/2012 10:49:07 AM

Game 3 Cubs 5 / 9.50

Game 1 Oakland  1 / 2.60

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#22
Posted: 5/28/2012 7:17:59 PM

3-2  +28.90

Current Balance 139.40

quote
fija1001 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
fija1001
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 262
Location:
#23
Posted: 5/28/2012 9:26:30 PM
At the vig. So could betting the -1.5 or -1. He is doing -2.5 and he is making a good profit. Why not do +2 or +2.5 for the reason your saying? Just let him do what he set out to do.
quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#24
Posted: 5/29/2012 12:23:53 PM

Game 4  Braves 6 / 16.80

Game 2  Oakland  3 / 6.60

Game 2  Miami  3 / 7.50

quote
shawnboskie
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
shawnboskie
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 406
Location: Indiana
#25
Posted: 5/29/2012 12:24:53 PM
Thanks fija
quote
Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.