MLB RPI 1st 5 innings 2012 ++ variations

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB RPI 1st 5 innings 2012 ++ variations
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:48:25 AM
I will take the b2w mlb rpi plays and do a 1st 5 innings chase.

2011 results 43-2 (2-2gm Losses resulting in -14.3 Units) +28.7 Units
Clv at the beginning of the season lost ~5.4 units and the NYY lost ~8.9 units at the end of the season.

KC which was our only losing chase last yr would have won their C game if we bet 1st 5 innings only.

I will also post other variations I found that work in correlation with the RPI system.
If anyone has found another system or another way to make some loot off the RPI system - please post.
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:54:45 AM
QUOTEPeople please kill the last thread. Let 'er rest in peace please.

Originally Posted by bettor2win:

Looks like actually ONLY 2 plays tomorrow!!!
TEX
LAD

Interleague play begins Friday. 2 game series with back to back RPI plays.


Thanks B2W - 2 Upcoming Plays for RPI, but only 1 for this system as LAD will be on the road for their second series. But since it is SD I will post consider it an unofficial play.

[Quote: Originally Posted by CannedGoods]
What was the date NYY lost their chase?

Started 8/23 They won their C bet for the full game, but lost 2 of 3 in the first 5 innings and tied through 5 innings in another game.
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:04:45 AM
Results So Far: 6-0
May 11 Tex, CWS, LAD all won A game.
May 12 LAD won A game (continuation) Tex lost A Game
May 13 LAD won A game, Tex Won B game
May 14 LAD A game (unofficial), Tex A game.
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:09:37 AM
whoooooppsss forgot a play
May 4 TB won A game

System is 7-0
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1070
New Jersey
 
DegenGamble
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 10:44:48 AM

Air1,

So I may be missign something here.....This is a variation of B2W's RPI system where you would bet the 1st 5 innings based on the same filters as B2W system (i.e RPI, Win% filter, etc)

Are you saying the 1st 5 results are typically different than the game results?  Because that would be the only reason why it makes sense to bet both 1st 5 and game using the RPI.  Otherwise, you would just add more to the game bet.

So though your testing were there were many times where you would win the 1st 5 "A" bet but lose the game "A" bet?

and vice versa - lose the 1st 5 "A" bet, but win the game "A" bet? and then obviously win the ast 5 "B" bet

 

CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 591
 
CannedGoods
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:19:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:


Thanks B2W - 2 Upcoming Plays for RPI, but only 1 for this system as LAD will be on the road for their second series. But since it is SD I will post consider it an unofficial play.

Originally Posted by CannedGoods]
What was the date NYY lost their chase?

Started 8/23 They won their C bet for the full game, but lost 2 of 3 in the first 5 innings and tied through 5 innings in another game.


We should stop the system on 8/20.
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1291
 
BookieCrusher88
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:29:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Air1,

So I may be missign something here.....This is a variation of B2W's RPI system where you would bet the 1st 5 innings based on the same filters as B2W system (i.e RPI, Win% filter, etc)

Are you saying the 1st 5 results are typically different than the game results?  Because that would be the only reason why it makes sense to bet both 1st 5 and game using the RPI.  Otherwise, you would just add more to the game bet.

So though your testing were there were many times where you would win the 1st 5 "A" bet but lose the game "A" bet?

and vice versa - lose the 1st 5 "A" bet, but win the game "A" bet? and then obviously win the ast 5 "B" bet

 


Nice observation DG
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1291
 
BookieCrusher88
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:31:28 AM
Just a quick question Air1, 1st 5 innings, is that ML or RL? After 5 innings, if the team led by 1 point, they win?
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1291
 
BookieCrusher88
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:50:54 AM
I read that we may be able to double dip with this. Lets say game A 1st 5 won and game A RPI also won then its cleared. But if game A 1st 5 lost and game A RPI won, then the next day, game B 1st 5 is on the board for us but game A RPI is cleared and vice versa. So until the 1st 5 wins, we chase it and if it wins, we basically won twice in the series. Am I right Air1?
joelifer PM joelifer
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 47
Texas
 
joelifer
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:16:39 PM
I wonder if it would be a good idea to take the + RL when offered instead of ML to prevent ties. I say when offered because only underdogs would get a + RL line. For me personally as my book does not offer alternate RL's for first 5, only full game.
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1070
New Jersey
 
DegenGamble
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:26:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

I read that we may be able to double dip with this. Lets say game A 1st 5 won and game A RPI also won then its cleared. But if game A 1st 5 lost and game A RPI won, then the next day, game B 1st 5 is on the board for us but game A RPI is cleared and vice versa. So until the 1st 5 wins, we chase it and if it wins, we basically won twice in the series. Am I right Air1?

To me....it only makes sense if 1st 5 has a high propensity of hitting versus the game.  If they align - meaning if you hit the game you usually hit the 1st 5 - then you might as well just add more money to your game bet, than the 1st 5.

I hope Air1 can add some detail on the difference between 1st 5 and game hits.

Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:37:48 PM
I came up with this because I was there for the KC loss last yr and if there is a way to avoid such a thing from happening again I would gladly do so. Also some books have limits on their plays and this might be a way around it.

@ DegenGamble - Mostly in the beginning of the season its like 60% the same winners.
I have given some of the major differences in my first post. 2 separate 2 game chase losses which were winners in a full game chase. Also a major difference was with KC, last yrs only loser would have become a Win.

@ CannedGoods - All systems should be stopped when rosters expand or slightly before.

@ BookieCrusher - Its ML..... so a score of 2-2 would be a tie and you lose/win nothing.
I am going to back-test some more with what you said as I need to check the continuation RPI plays also.

@joelifer - That would only apply in the beginning of the season. Last yr Cle was a 2 game chase loss and fell into the dog category in one of their games. So no It wouldn't help.
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:41:40 PM
@degengamble - Starting from 6/20 RPI went on a hot streak and so did the 1st 5 innings.
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/15/2012 12:31:16 AM
Teams that won an RPI game and still had 2 more games left, but did NOT win the 1st 5 innings had 6 cases. all 6 went on to win in a 2 game chase and 5 of these 6 teams swept their next 2 games..... This counted for almost HALF of the sweeps for the RPI System.

As for teams who won their 1st 5 but not the Full game only 3 cases. TB lost both of the 1st 5 innings in their next 2 games. Phi + Bos had a4 game series and both lost their C game 1st 5 innings. THIS sample size is too small.

Lastly the continuation of the RPI for the 1st 5 innings works just as effectively as the full game
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1291
 
BookieCrusher88
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/15/2012 6:07:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:

Teams that won an RPI game and still had 2 more games left, but did NOT win the 1st 5 innings had 6 cases. all 6 went on to win in a 2 game chase and 5 of these 6 teams swept their next 2 games..... This counted for almost HALF of the sweeps for the RPI System.

As for teams who won their 1st 5 but not the Full game only 3 cases. TB lost both of the 1st 5 innings in their next 2 games. Phi + Bos had a4 game series and both lost their C game 1st 5 innings. THIS sample size is too small.

Lastly the continuation of the RPI for the 1st 5 innings works just as effectively as the full game


So simply put, we can double dip on every series that's an RPI play? Is my understanding correct?
peter1988 PM peter1988
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 384
 
peter1988
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/15/2012 6:16:08 AM
Great idea, only problem I see is what if you get a tie during a 'B' game, would you continue to chase at the 'C' game?
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/15/2012 7:51:23 PM
@ peter - Yes I would continue with the 1st 5 innings until the 'C' game. However I would only bet to win what I lost +1 unit only.

@BC YUPP!
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:59:41 AM
Went over my MLB RPI Spreadsheet and came up with a few correlations or variation systems to the rpi system by b2w

Please pardon the brief explanations to the systems. Not too hard to guess, so if anyone does I will confirm it.

System #1: 1st 5 innings chase on RPI Teams

System #2: 47-0 last yr chase certain winners to win again. 5-0 this yr

System #3: 2 game chase in same series to win again. 6-0 last yr. 1-0 this yr.

System #4: Losers chase 11-0 last yr. 1-0 this yr Tex losing their 2nd game against Oak.

Totals to +93 units Last season! That was without the continuation Plays. We will have even more plays this season!

Play:
System #4: Chase LAD to lose a game starting Friday. Part of continuation that was not tested last season.
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/18/2012 2:07:19 AM
LAD B game winner for the 1st 5 innings.
Text C game winner for the 1st 5 innings.

This season
System #1: 9-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-0

Combined total this season so far 16-0
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/20/2012 1:51:19 AM
wow Sunday's C bet to fade the dodgers. I think i am going to tweak system 4 and go with 2 losses to the same opponent.
I.E. tex lost 2 to KC and then fell perfectly into the system and lost 2 of their next 3.
I however believe it is safer to just chase for 1 loss.

Hope we get some real RPI plays for monday.
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:00:49 AM
Monday: yanks, rangers, o's

This season so far
System #1: 9-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-1 (has been tweaked since loss)

Combined total this season so far 16-1
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:01:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:

Monday: yanks, rangers, o's 1st 5 innings!

This season so far
System #1: 9-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-1 (has been tweaked since loss)

Combined total this season so far 16-1
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/21/2012 1:19:50 PM
CORRECTION AGAIN
Plays are Yanks 1st 5 innings, Mia 1st 5 innings and Bal is very close, so unofficial play for 1st 5 innings.
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/22/2012 6:44:28 PM
Mia + Bal won 1st 5 innings yesterday
Today Yanks B game.
Unofficial play on Bal to win the Full Game. add 1 unit
Air1 PM Air1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 909
United States
 
Air1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/23/2012 3:34:49 PM
This season
System #1: 10-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-0
Unofficial plays 3-1 -10.24 units.

Combined total this season so far 16-0

So far for Thursday System #2: Chase Mia to win
Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.