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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB RPI 1st 5 innings 2012 ++ variations
Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:48:25 AM
I will take the b2w mlb rpi plays and do a 1st 5 innings chase.

2011 results 43-2 (2-2gm Losses resulting in -14.3 Units) +28.7 Units
Clv at the beginning of the season lost ~5.4 units and the NYY lost ~8.9 units at the end of the season.

KC which was our only losing chase last yr would have won their C game if we bet 1st 5 innings only.

I will also post other variations I found that work in correlation with the RPI system.
If anyone has found another system or another way to make some loot off the RPI system - please post.
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#2
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:54:45 AM
QUOTEPeople please kill the last thread. Let 'er rest in peace please.

Originally Posted by bettor2win:

Looks like actually ONLY 2 plays tomorrow!!!
TEX
LAD

Interleague play begins Friday. 2 game series with back to back RPI plays.


Thanks B2W - 2 Upcoming Plays for RPI, but only 1 for this system as LAD will be on the road for their second series. But since it is SD I will post consider it an unofficial play.

[Quote: Originally Posted by CannedGoods]
What was the date NYY lost their chase?

Started 8/23 They won their C bet for the full game, but lost 2 of 3 in the first 5 innings and tied through 5 innings in another game.
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#3
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:04:45 AM
Results So Far: 6-0
May 11 Tex, CWS, LAD all won A game.
May 12 LAD won A game (continuation) Tex lost A Game
May 13 LAD won A game, Tex Won B game
May 14 LAD A game (unofficial), Tex A game.
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#4
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:09:37 AM
whoooooppsss forgot a play
May 4 TB won A game

System is 7-0
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#5
Posted: 5/14/2012 10:44:48 AM

Air1,

So I may be missign something here.....This is a variation of B2W's RPI system where you would bet the 1st 5 innings based on the same filters as B2W system (i.e RPI, Win% filter, etc)

Are you saying the 1st 5 results are typically different than the game results?  Because that would be the only reason why it makes sense to bet both 1st 5 and game using the RPI.  Otherwise, you would just add more to the game bet.

So though your testing were there were many times where you would win the 1st 5 "A" bet but lose the game "A" bet?

and vice versa - lose the 1st 5 "A" bet, but win the game "A" bet? and then obviously win the ast 5 "B" bet

 
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CannedGoods
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#6
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:19:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:


Thanks B2W - 2 Upcoming Plays for RPI, but only 1 for this system as LAD will be on the road for their second series. But since it is SD I will post consider it an unofficial play.

Originally Posted by CannedGoods]
What was the date NYY lost their chase?

Started 8/23 They won their C bet for the full game, but lost 2 of 3 in the first 5 innings and tied through 5 innings in another game.


We should stop the system on 8/20.
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#7
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:29:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Air1,

So I may be missign something here.....This is a variation of B2W's RPI system where you would bet the 1st 5 innings based on the same filters as B2W system (i.e RPI, Win% filter, etc)

Are you saying the 1st 5 results are typically different than the game results?  Because that would be the only reason why it makes sense to bet both 1st 5 and game using the RPI.  Otherwise, you would just add more to the game bet.

So though your testing were there were many times where you would win the 1st 5 "A" bet but lose the game "A" bet?

and vice versa - lose the 1st 5 "A" bet, but win the game "A" bet? and then obviously win the ast 5 "B" bet

 


Nice observation DG
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#8
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:31:28 AM
Just a quick question Air1, 1st 5 innings, is that ML or RL? After 5 innings, if the team led by 1 point, they win?
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#9
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:50:54 AM
I read that we may be able to double dip with this. Lets say game A 1st 5 won and game A RPI also won then its cleared. But if game A 1st 5 lost and game A RPI won, then the next day, game B 1st 5 is on the board for us but game A RPI is cleared and vice versa. So until the 1st 5 wins, we chase it and if it wins, we basically won twice in the series. Am I right Air1?
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#10
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:16:39 PM
I wonder if it would be a good idea to take the + RL when offered instead of ML to prevent ties. I say when offered because only underdogs would get a + RL line. For me personally as my book does not offer alternate RL's for first 5, only full game.
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#11
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:26:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

I read that we may be able to double dip with this. Lets say game A 1st 5 won and game A RPI also won then its cleared. But if game A 1st 5 lost and game A RPI won, then the next day, game B 1st 5 is on the board for us but game A RPI is cleared and vice versa. So until the 1st 5 wins, we chase it and if it wins, we basically won twice in the series. Am I right Air1?

To me....it only makes sense if 1st 5 has a high propensity of hitting versus the game.  If they align - meaning if you hit the game you usually hit the 1st 5 - then you might as well just add more money to your game bet, than the 1st 5.

I hope Air1 can add some detail on the difference between 1st 5 and game hits.
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#12
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:37:48 PM
I came up with this because I was there for the KC loss last yr and if there is a way to avoid such a thing from happening again I would gladly do so. Also some books have limits on their plays and this might be a way around it.

@ DegenGamble - Mostly in the beginning of the season its like 60% the same winners.
I have given some of the major differences in my first post. 2 separate 2 game chase losses which were winners in a full game chase. Also a major difference was with KC, last yrs only loser would have become a Win.

@ CannedGoods - All systems should be stopped when rosters expand or slightly before.

@ BookieCrusher - Its ML..... so a score of 2-2 would be a tie and you lose/win nothing.
I am going to back-test some more with what you said as I need to check the continuation RPI plays also.

@joelifer - That would only apply in the beginning of the season. Last yr Cle was a 2 game chase loss and fell into the dog category in one of their games. So no It wouldn't help.
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#13
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:41:40 PM
@degengamble - Starting from 6/20 RPI went on a hot streak and so did the 1st 5 innings.
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#14
Posted: 5/15/2012 12:31:16 AM
Teams that won an RPI game and still had 2 more games left, but did NOT win the 1st 5 innings had 6 cases. all 6 went on to win in a 2 game chase and 5 of these 6 teams swept their next 2 games..... This counted for almost HALF of the sweeps for the RPI System.

As for teams who won their 1st 5 but not the Full game only 3 cases. TB lost both of the 1st 5 innings in their next 2 games. Phi + Bos had a4 game series and both lost their C game 1st 5 innings. THIS sample size is too small.

Lastly the continuation of the RPI for the 1st 5 innings works just as effectively as the full game
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#15
Posted: 5/15/2012 6:07:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:

Teams that won an RPI game and still had 2 more games left, but did NOT win the 1st 5 innings had 6 cases. all 6 went on to win in a 2 game chase and 5 of these 6 teams swept their next 2 games..... This counted for almost HALF of the sweeps for the RPI System.

As for teams who won their 1st 5 but not the Full game only 3 cases. TB lost both of the 1st 5 innings in their next 2 games. Phi + Bos had a4 game series and both lost their C game 1st 5 innings. THIS sample size is too small.

Lastly the continuation of the RPI for the 1st 5 innings works just as effectively as the full game


So simply put, we can double dip on every series that's an RPI play? Is my understanding correct?
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#16
Posted: 5/15/2012 6:16:08 AM
Great idea, only problem I see is what if you get a tie during a 'B' game, would you continue to chase at the 'C' game?
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#17
Posted: 5/15/2012 7:51:23 PM
@ peter - Yes I would continue with the 1st 5 innings until the 'C' game. However I would only bet to win what I lost +1 unit only.

@BC YUPP!
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#18
Posted: 5/18/2012 1:59:41 AM
Went over my MLB RPI Spreadsheet and came up with a few correlations or variation systems to the rpi system by b2w

Please pardon the brief explanations to the systems. Not too hard to guess, so if anyone does I will confirm it.

System #1: 1st 5 innings chase on RPI Teams

System #2: 47-0 last yr chase certain winners to win again. 5-0 this yr

System #3: 2 game chase in same series to win again. 6-0 last yr. 1-0 this yr.

System #4: Losers chase 11-0 last yr. 1-0 this yr Tex losing their 2nd game against Oak.

Totals to +93 units Last season! That was without the continuation Plays. We will have even more plays this season!

Play:
System #4: Chase LAD to lose a game starting Friday. Part of continuation that was not tested last season.
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#19
Posted: 5/18/2012 2:07:19 AM
LAD B game winner for the 1st 5 innings.
Text C game winner for the 1st 5 innings.

This season
System #1: 9-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-0

Combined total this season so far 16-0
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#20
Posted: 5/20/2012 1:51:19 AM
wow Sunday's C bet to fade the dodgers. I think i am going to tweak system 4 and go with 2 losses to the same opponent.
I.E. tex lost 2 to KC and then fell perfectly into the system and lost 2 of their next 3.
I however believe it is safer to just chase for 1 loss.

Hope we get some real RPI plays for monday.
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#21
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:00:49 AM
Monday: yanks, rangers, o's

This season so far
System #1: 9-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-1 (has been tweaked since loss)

Combined total this season so far 16-1
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#22
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:01:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:

Monday: yanks, rangers, o's 1st 5 innings!

This season so far
System #1: 9-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-1 (has been tweaked since loss)

Combined total this season so far 16-1
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#23
Posted: 5/21/2012 1:19:50 PM
CORRECTION AGAIN
Plays are Yanks 1st 5 innings, Mia 1st 5 innings and Bal is very close, so unofficial play for 1st 5 innings.
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#24
Posted: 5/22/2012 6:44:28 PM
Mia + Bal won 1st 5 innings yesterday
Today Yanks B game.
Unofficial play on Bal to win the Full Game. add 1 unit
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#25
Posted: 5/23/2012 3:34:49 PM
This season
System #1: 10-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-0
Unofficial plays 3-1 -10.24 units.

Combined total this season so far 16-0

So far for Thursday System #2: Chase Mia to win
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