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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Things Must Change
BCap888
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#1
Posted: 5/12/2012 6:58:05 PM
I was thinking about the teams that are currently doing markedly better or worse than they should be. There was a reason they were projected to be in a certain position and for a few teams I just don't see their current success, or lack of, holding true.

Teams doing much better than expected:

Baltimore
NY Mets
Houston

Teams doing much worse than expected:

Philadelphia
Boston
LA Angels
Detroit

Of course injuries and other variables play in but I felt those 7 teams stood out as most likely to be lower or higher in the standings as time goes on.

Here's the idea:
When teams from the first group are FAVORITES I want to bet against them unless they are playing MIN, KC, SD or CHC.

When teams from the second group are UNDERDOGS i want to bet on them unless they are playing STL, TEX, LAD or NYY. (Filtering out the Yankees from this because they are likely to be favored in any game.)

Main Idea:

Betting on PHI, BOS, LAA, and DET as DOGS against everyone except STL, TEX, LAD, or NYY.

Betting against BAL, NYM, HOU as FAVS against everyone except MIN, KC, SD or CHC.

I have no backtesting this is simply a theory.


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#2
Posted: 5/15/2012 1:31:17 AM
Detroit +115 would be the first game to fit here tomorrow.
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#3
Posted: 5/15/2012 9:16:51 PM
Tigers got us a win today. +1.15 Units so far. I'll check for the plays tomorrow before the end of the night.
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#4
Posted: 5/16/2012 12:33:29 AM
For Wednesday:

Red Sox +125
Reds +125
Phillies +115
Brewers -105

GL
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BCap888
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#5
Posted: 5/17/2012 2:22:52 AM
Red Sox +125 
Brewers -105 
Reds +125 
Phillies +115 

+.40 Units

YTD: +1.55 Units
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#6
Posted: 5/17/2012 9:23:33 AM
Thursday:

Red Sox +110

GL
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#7
Posted: 5/17/2012 10:35:49 PM
Red Sox +110 

+1.10 Units

YTD: +2.65 Units

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#8
Posted: 5/18/2012 4:35:43 PM
Friday:

Red Sox +150

YTD: +2.65 Units
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#9
Posted: 5/18/2012 5:50:05 PM
Me like
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#10
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:30:48 PM
Red Sox +150 

YTD: +1.65 Units
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#11
Posted: 5/19/2012 9:55:47 AM
Phillies +110

YTD: +1.65 Units
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#12
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:04:16 PM
I don't think the red sox should have been a play yesterday and Philly today should not be only because they are both teams that should be on the upswing and they are playing each other.
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#13
Posted: 5/19/2012 4:38:10 PM
That makes sense. But still, one of them does have to win the game. Taking either team on the dog line presents great value.
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#14
Posted: 5/20/2012 11:58:39 AM
Phillies +110

YTD: +.65 Units

Sunday
Red Sox +120

GL
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#15
Posted: 5/20/2012 8:04:26 PM
Sunday
Red Sox +120 

YTD: +1.85 Units
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#16
Posted: 5/21/2012 11:37:59 AM
Monday
Phillies +120
Cubs +100
Angels -105

YTD: +1.85 Units
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#17
Posted: 5/22/2012 9:19:23 AM
Monday
Phillies +120
Cubs +100
Angels -105

Lol what a sham.

YTD: -1.15 Units
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#18
Posted: 5/22/2012 9:21:32 AM
Tigers -105
Cubs +110

YTD: -1.15 Units
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