|I haven't backtested this whatsoever as it would be very difficult to do so. I had this idea this morning and thought I would track the plays on here. It's a two step process:
Posted: 4/23/2012 11:41:39 AM
First you add the Starting Pitchers WHIPs together.
Then you divide that sum by the total on the game.
If your final quotient is greater than .40 play the OVER.
If your final quotient is less than .25 lay the UNDER
The thought here is this:
The higher a pitcher's WHIP is the better chance more runs will be scored (groundbreaking I know). Here's an exmple:
Pitcher A: WHIP = 1.21
Pitcher B: WHIP = 1.45
Betting Total = 8.5
Sum = 2.66
Quotient = .312
There would be no play there.
Pitcher A: WHIP = 1.15
Pitcher B: WHIP = 1.12
Betting Total = 9.5
Sum = 2.27
Quotient = .234
In this game we have a play on the UNDER.
It's a fairly simple concept and it shouldn't produce a ton of plays as the season goes on, but I think it would be interesting to track. I AM NOT SUGGESTING THAT YOU PLAY THESE PICKS. Just to be clear. Because it's early in the season and WHIPs are nowhere near where they're going to finish, we might get some wacky plays early on.
Today there are 4 games:
White Sox / Athletics U 6.5 (.249)
Yankees / Rangers U 9.5 (.235)
Blue Jays / Royals U 8 (.242)
Braves / Dodgers O 7.5 (.475)
Maybe we have something here, probably we don't, but let's just see what happens. GL