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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: Neilsy's MLB 33 System |
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neilsy25 |
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#1 Posted: 4/7/2012 11:17:52 PM I have done a ton of work backtesting and fine tuning this system, and its ready to roll ! .. The basic idea of the system is we are looking for teams to either win or lose 3 in a row, then we are betting that they will have the same result in their next 3 .. if not we wait till the next time they have a streak of 3 and repeat. This continues if the teams wins or loses the 4th..5th..etc.. which allows us to cash in every game past 3 on a long losing streak.I the team hits on the second game... i.e WWW L W ..the progession ends and we bank a unit.. if it wins on the 3rd game we are back to square one, the labby went 1-1 , 1-1-2, 1 .. I use a sort of cross between a martingale and labby progression , always starting to win 1 unit...my line never gets more than 4 numbers, the numbers just get bigger. if they start to get to big, i move some of them to other teams lines. A few other things, you should run this with 150 units to minimize your risk of ruin..as well i will be compounding, every 50 lines cleared my base units will increase 33%, this makes a huge difference in profits over the course of 600 wins, which is what this system should produce. At a minimum i will at least try to post the plays each day,follow those with a roll of 150 units, you will make some good money. When I have time i will try to explain the bet sizes etc..
This has looked great when backtested extensively over the past 2 years,. i am ready to roll live ! ..Still waiting for the 1st play
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neilsy25 |
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#2 Posted: 4/8/2012 12:41:05 AM we got our first teams in play ..getting them now
Dodgers +114 , 1u to win 1.14 units
Dodgers +114 (San Diego Lose) 1u to win 1.14 units
I will never bet less then one unit..
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bettor2win |
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#3 Posted: 4/8/2012 1:10:09 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:
we got our first teams in play ..getting them now
Dodgers +114 , 1u to win 1.14 units
Dodgers +114 (San Diego Lose) 1u to win 1.14 units
I will never bet less then one unit..
AMEN! After reading your post I realized the LAD won!  I have bet the LAD (really against the sd la madres) ALL 3 games so far this season. I would LOVE it if LAD sweep sd IN sd. Shame on sd for ever trading Adrian Gonzales away. I'm ON LAD with ya brother! Just show me the plays and I will be here supporting ya!!
B2W |
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neilsy25 |
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#4 Posted: 4/9/2012 12:05:02 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:
we got our first teams in play ..getting them now
Dodgers +114 , 1u to win 1.14 units 
Dodgers +114 (San Diego Lose) 1u to win 1.14 units
I will never bet less then one unit..
starting roll 150 units
current roll 148 units
profit -2 units
Monday plays
Angels (Minnesota lose) -159 1.59 units to win 1 unit
Rockies (San Fran lose) -163 1.63 units to win 1 unit
Baltimore +138 1 unit to win 1.38 units
Baltimore (yankees lose) +138 1 unit to win 1.38 units
Blue Jays (Red sox lose) -116 1.16 units to win 1 unit
Mets -102 1 unit to win 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Astros (Atlanta lose) +155 1 unit to win 1.55 units
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bigdog56 |
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#5 Posted: 4/9/2012 4:42:54 PM
Going to send you a PM regarding something else. |
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neilsy25 |
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#6 Posted: 4/9/2012 10:59:41 PM Monday results -1.24 units
YTD : -3.24 units
Tuesday Plays
Arizona -101 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Arizona (SD LOSE) -101 2.02 units to win 2 units
Dodgers -223 4.46u to win 2u
Baltimore +117 1.71u to win 2u
Baltimore +117 (YANKEES LOSE) 1.71u to win 2u
Jays (Boston Lose) +114 1.89u to win 2.16u
Mets -118 1.18u to win 1u
Houston +171 1.17 u to win 2 units
(houston play is to win 1 unit for houstons win streak, and 1 unit for atlanta's lose streak)
** when you see in brackets a team lose .. i.e (yankees lose), it means the bet is against that team , as they are in play due to a 3 game losing streak being chased..
-may add a play depending on the outcome of the Oak/KC game...
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Budman717 |
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#7 Posted: 4/10/2012 12:40:22 PM Neilsy;
How do you decide who to play when you have a conflict? For example, Det is on a 3 game win streak and TB is on a 3 game win streak and they play each other today. You should play both to win. How do you handle this? |
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neilsy25 |
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#8 Posted: 4/10/2012 12:51:55 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Budman717:
Neilsy;
How do you decide who to play when you have a conflict? For example, Det is on a 3 game win streak and TB is on a 3 game win streak and they play each other today. You should play both to win. How do you handle this?
I would bet the "to win" difference in the 2 labby lines.. for example IF Detroits line was 1-1-2 .the bet for detroit would be to win 3 ..and IF Tampa Bays line was just starting i.e to win 1 ..my bet would be detroit to win 2 .. i would then update each teams line accordingly as if i had bet each chase individually... i.e Tampa bet wins.. their line stays at 1 and Detroit goes to 1-1-2-3
for today though, both lines are just starting at 1..so i will not make a bet..after today one of their lines will be 1-1 ..and the other will still be 1.... not sure if this rambling makes sense ? |
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Budman717 |
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#9 Posted: 4/10/2012 3:27:37 PM |
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neilsy25 |
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#10 Posted: 4/11/2012 6:12:21 AM Tuesday results +1.39 units
YTD : -1.85 units
Wednesday Plays
Tampa Bay +1.67 1u to win 1.67u
Miami (Philly Lose) +119 1u to win 1.19u
Angels (Twins Lose) -167 1.67u to win 1 unit
Cardinals +122 1u to win 1.22u
Mets +101 2.16u to win 2.18u
Texas -230 2.3u to win 1u
Arizona to win 1 unit
Houston (atlanta lose) to win 1.59u
Houston to win 1.58u
Baltimore to win 2.71
Baltimore (Yankees Lose) to win 2.71u
Colorado tw 1.63u
will update lines for the last 6 games once Pinnacle is back up and i get them in
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neilsy25 |
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#11 Posted: 4/11/2012 10:34:17 AM updated lines
Zona +112 1u to win 1.12 u
Houston 2.81u to win 3.17u
Baltimore 3.36u to win 5.41u
Colorado 1.48u to win 1.63u
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neilsy25 |
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#12 Posted: 4/12/2012 6:03:43 AM Tuesday results -12.12 units 
YTD : -13.97 units
Thursday Plays
San Fran -122 2.44u to win 2u
Milwuakee -124 1.24u to win 1u
Milwuakee (Cubs lose) -124 1.24u to win 1u
Marlins (philly lose) -110 2.2u to win 2u
Zona -126 2.67u to win 2.12u
Tigers -115 2.3u to win 2u
Angels (Minny lose) -147 3.92u to win 2.67u
Texas -231 7.62u to win 3.3u
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Budman717 |
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#13 Posted: 4/12/2012 8:22:21 AM Sorry, Neilsy, but you lost me again on a couple of today's plays.
SF - they've gone LLLWL. Why are you playing them to win? And why to win 2 units? Isn't this the first play on them this year? I'm still confused over the Col series.
Det - they've gone WWWWL. I understand playing them to win, but why for 2 units? So you treat the Det labby line as if you lost the TB game even though you didn't play the game?
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neilsy25 |
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#14 Posted: 4/12/2012 11:32:03 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Budman717:
Sorry, Neilsy, but you lost me again on a couple of today's plays.
SF - they've gone LLLWL. Why are you playing them to win? And why to win 2 units? Isn't this the first play on them this year? I'm still confused over the Col series.
Det - they've gone WWWWL. I understand playing them to win, but why for 2 units? So you treat the Det labby line as if you lost the TB game even though you didn't play the game?
San Fran should have read (Col lose) .. this is a play against Colorado as they have went LLLW
you are right about Detroit
Now lets start getting some of these units back !
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neilsy25 |
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#15 Posted: 4/13/2012 6:05:04 AM Thursday results + 0.82 units
YTD : -13.15 units
Friday Plays
Milwuakee +120 1.87u tw 2.24u
Milwuakee (Atl lose) +120 2.48u tw 2.98u
Jays (Baltimore lose) -187 5.01u to win 2.68u
Cardinals -1.85 3.7u to win 2u
Cardinals (Cubs lose) 7.84u to win 4.24u
Houston +185 1.62u to win 3u
Mets +159 1.99u to win 3.16u
Mets (Philly lose) +159 2.01u to win 3.2u
Texas (Minny lose) -152 7.48u to win 4.92u
Washington -142 1.42u to win 1 u
Yankees -140 3.75u to win 2.68u
Dodgers -123 1.23 u to win 1u
San Fran (Pittsburgh lose) -170 1.7u to win 1 u
Action Friday !!
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jayray2324 |
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#16 Posted: 4/13/2012 9:36:53 PM |
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neilsy25 |
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#17 Posted: 4/14/2012 1:26:33 AM Friday results -1.86 units
YTD : -15.01 units
Saturday Plays
Yankees -119 3.22u to win 2.71u
Yankees (Angels lose) -119 1.19u to win 1u
Atlanta -109 1.3u to win 1.19u
Bluejays (Baltimore lose) -161 8.36u to win 5.19u
St. Louis -187 8.79u to win 4.7u
St. Louis (Cubs lose) -187 9.61u to win 5.14u
Miami (Hou lose) -172 5.52u to win 3.21u
San fran (Pittsburgh lose) -148 1.48u to win 1u
Washington -118 1.18u to win 1u
White Sox -123 1.23u to win 1u
jayray..each of last 2 years this made aobut 550 units, i will be increasing my unit size every 50 lines cleared, so it should be more...(i hope)
GO SENS GO |
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neilsy25 |
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#18 Posted: 4/14/2012 1:27:18 AM OOPS forgot one play
Dodgers -137 1.37u to win 1u |
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neilsy25 |
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#19 Posted: 4/15/2012 1:36:23 AM Saturday results -3.26 units
YTD : -18.27 units
Sunday Plays
Yankees -175 7.39u tw 4.22u
Yankees (Angels lose) -175 3.85u to win 2.19u
Atlanta -145 2.03u to win 1.4u
Atlanta (Milwuakee lose) -145 5.61u to win 3.87u
Washington -106 1.06u to win 1u
Washington (Cincy lose) -106 1.06u to win 1u
Blue Jays (Balt lose) -150 13.79u to win 9.19u
Dodgers -214 2.14u to win 1u
Dodgers (SD lose) -214 2.14u to win 1u
Miami (Houston lose) -203 14.43u to win 7.11u
Cleveland (KC lose) -119 1.19u to win 1u
San Fran -152 1.52u to win 1u
San Fran (Pitt lose) -152 1.52u to win 1u
Boston (TB lose) -108 1.08u to win 1u
Texas -175 1.75u to win 1u
White Sox -108 1.08u to win 1 u
Need a breakout day ! |
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gotnogame1 |
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#20 Posted: 4/15/2012 11:57:19 AM
you had a request for some NBA info for half lines and i left you the info in that thread. would think u already found it, but just in case u didn't it should help you.
thanks for the work on your systems. |
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neilsy25 |
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#21 Posted: 4/15/2012 11:39:40 PM Sunday results +26.82 units 
YTD : +8.55 units
Monday Plays
Braves -166 1.66u to win 1u
Boston -121 1.21u to win 1u
Boston (Tampa lose) -121 1.21u to win 1u
Detroit (KC lose) -185 1.85u to win 1u
Arizona (Pitt lose) -132 3.33u to win 2.52u
Colorado (San Diego lose) -130 1.3u to win 1u
San Fran +100 2.52u tw 2.52u
Washington -250 5.15u to win 2.06u
White Sox -123 2.56u to win 2.08u
Yankees (Minny lose) tw 1.67u (not sure if they play monday ??)
GO SENS GO !
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neilsy25 |
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#22 Posted: 4/16/2012 1:30:59 PM adding
Yankees (Minny lose) -179 ... 2.99u to win 1.67u
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neilsy25 |
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#23 Posted: 4/17/2012 6:14:08 AM Sunday results -7.87 units
YTD : +0.68 units
Tuesday Plays
Atlanta -103 2.74u to win 2.66u
Boston -119 2.63u to win 2.21u
St.Louis (Cincy lose) -116 2.39u to win 2.06u
Cleveland -122 1.22u to win 1u
Dodgers +114 1u to win 1.14u
Dodgers (Brewers lose) +114 2.73u to win 3.11u
Yankees (Minny lose) -236 11u to win 4.66u
Colorado (SD lose) -117 2.69u yo win 2.3u
San fran -138 4.86u to win 3.52u
Blue Jays ( TB lose) -140 3.09u to win 2.21u
White Sox -130 4.63u to win 3.56u
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jayray2324 |
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#24 Posted: 4/17/2012 10:58:15 AM |
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neilsy25 |
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#25 Posted: 4/17/2012 12:54:58 PM  looks like i missed a few, early morning after going to the Senators game ..will confirm on my spreadsheet when i get home tonite !..thanks |
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