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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Neilsy's MLB 33 System
neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
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#1
Posted: 4/7/2012 11:17:52 PM

I have done a ton of work backtesting and fine tuning this system, and its ready to roll ! .. The basic idea of the system is we are looking for teams to either win or lose 3 in a row, then we are betting that they will have the same result in their next 3  .. if not we wait till the next time they have a streak of 3 and repeat. This continues if the teams wins or loses the 4th..5th..etc.. which allows us to cash in every game past 3 on a long losing streak.I the team hits on the second game... i.e  WWW L W ..the progession ends and we bank a unit.. if it wins on the 3rd game we are back to square one, the labby went 1-1 , 1-1-2, 1 .. I use a sort of cross between a martingale and labby progression , always starting to win 1 unit...my line never gets more than 4 numbers, the numbers just get bigger. if they start to get to big, i move some of them to other teams lines. A few other things,  you should run this with 150 units to minimize your risk of ruin..as well i will be compounding, every 50 lines cleared my base units will increase 33%, this makes a huge difference in profits over the course of 600 wins, which is what this system should produce. At a minimum i will at least try to post the plays each day,follow those with a roll of 150 units, you will make some good money. When I have time i will try to explain the bet sizes etc..

This has looked great when backtested extensively  over the past 2 years,. i am ready to roll live ! ..Still waiting for the 1st play

 

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#2
Posted: 4/8/2012 12:41:05 AM

we got our first teams in play ..getting them now

Dodgers  +114 , 1u to win 1.14 units

Dodgers +114 (San Diego Lose) 1u to win 1.14 units

I will never bet less then one unit..

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bettor2win
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bettor2win
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#3
Posted: 4/8/2012 1:10:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:

we got our first teams in play ..getting them now

Dodgers  +114 , 1u to win 1.14 units

Dodgers +114 (San Diego Lose) 1u to win 1.14 units

I will never bet less then one unit..

AMEN! After reading your post I realized the LAD won! I have bet the LAD (really against the sd la madres) ALL 3 games so far this season.  I would LOVE it if LAD sweep sd IN sd. Shame on sd for ever trading Adrian Gonzales away.  I'm ON LAD with ya brother!  Just show me the plays and I will be here supporting ya!!

B2W

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neilsy25
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Posted: 4/9/2012 12:05:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:

we got our first teams in play ..getting them now

Dodgers  +114 , 1u to win 1.14 units

Dodgers +114 (San Diego Lose) 1u to win 1.14 units

I will never bet less then one unit..

starting roll 150 units

current roll  148 units

profit  -2 units

Monday plays

Angels (Minnesota lose)   -159  1.59 units to win 1 unit

Rockies (San Fran lose) -163   1.63 units to win 1 unit

Baltimore  +138    1 unit to win 1.38 units

Baltimore (yankees lose) +138  1 unit to win 1.38 units

Blue Jays (Red sox lose) -116    1.16 units to win 1 unit

Mets -102      1 unit to win 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Astros  (Atlanta lose) +155    1 unit to win 1.55 units

 

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Posted: 4/9/2012 4:42:54 PM
Would be great if you could post your updated labby line for the day below your Unit results.

Going to send you a PM regarding something else.
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Posted: 4/9/2012 10:59:41 PM

Monday results   -1.24 units

YTD :  -3.24 units

Tuesday Plays

Arizona  -101    1.01 units to win 1 unit

Arizona (SD LOSE)  -101    2.02 units to win 2 units

Dodgers -223     4.46u  to win 2u

Baltimore +117    1.71u  to win 2u

Baltimore +117 (YANKEES LOSE)  1.71u to win 2u

Jays (Boston Lose) +114  1.89u to win 2.16u

Mets -118    1.18u to win 1u

Houston  +171    1.17 u to win 2 units

(houston play is to win 1 unit for houstons win streak, and 1 unit for atlanta's lose streak)

** when you see in brackets a team lose .. i.e (yankees lose), it means the bet is against that team , as they are in play due to a 3 game losing streak being chased..

-may add a play depending on the outcome of the Oak/KC game...

 

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#7
Posted: 4/10/2012 12:40:22 PM

Neilsy;

How do you decide who to play when you have a conflict?  For example, Det is on a 3 game win streak and TB is on a 3 game win streak and they play each other today.  You should play both to win.  How do you handle this?

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Posted: 4/10/2012 12:51:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Budman717:

Neilsy;

How do you decide who to play when you have a conflict?  For example, Det is on a 3 game win streak and TB is on a 3 game win streak and they play each other today.  You should play both to win.  How do you handle this?

 

I would bet the "to win" difference in the 2 labby lines.. for example IF Detroits line was  1-1-2 .the bet for detroit would be to win 3 ..and IF Tampa Bays line was just starting   i.e to win 1 ..my bet would be detroit to win 2 .. i would then update each teams line accordingly as if i had bet each chase individually... i.e  Tampa bet wins.. their line stays at 1 and Detroit goes to 1-1-2-3

for today though, both lines are just starting at 1..so i will not make a bet..after today one of their lines will be 1-1 ..and the other will still be 1.... not sure if this rambling makes sense ?

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#9
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:27:37 PM
Thanks.  I think I follow, but it'll probably make more sense to me as the season goes forward.  It helps having you list the plays so I can compare them to what I think they should be.
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#10
Posted: 4/11/2012 6:12:21 AM

Tuesday results   +1.39 units

YTD :  -1.85 units

Wednesday Plays

Tampa Bay  +1.67     1u to win 1.67u

Miami (Philly Lose)  +119      1u to win 1.19u

Angels (Twins Lose)  -167    1.67u to win 1 unit

Cardinals +122     1u to win 1.22u

Mets +101    2.16u to win 2.18u

Texas -230   2.3u to win 1u

Arizona  to win 1 unit

Houston (atlanta lose) to win 1.59u

Houston  to win 1.58u

Baltimore to win 2.71

Baltimore (Yankees Lose)  to win 2.71u

Colorado tw 1.63u

 

will update lines for the last 6 games once Pinnacle is back up and i get them in

 

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Posted: 4/11/2012 10:34:17 AM

updated lines

 

Zona   +112    1u to win 1.12 u

Houston     2.81u to win 3.17u

Baltimore  3.36u to win 5.41u

Colorado 1.48u to win 1.63u

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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:03:43 AM

Tuesday results   -12.12 units

YTD :  -13.97 units

Thursday Plays

San Fran -122     2.44u to win 2u

Milwuakee -124    1.24u to win 1u

Milwuakee (Cubs lose)  -124    1.24u to win 1u

Marlins (philly lose) -110   2.2u to win 2u

Zona  -126     2.67u to win 2.12u

Tigers  -115   2.3u to win 2u

Angels (Minny lose) -147  3.92u to win 2.67u

Texas  -231     7.62u to win 3.3u

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#13
Posted: 4/12/2012 8:22:21 AM

Sorry, Neilsy, but you lost me again on a couple of today's plays.

SF - they've gone LLLWL.  Why are you playing them to win?  And why to win 2 units?  Isn't this the first play on them this year?  I'm still confused over the Col series.

Det - they've gone WWWWL.  I understand playing them to win, but why for 2 units?  So you treat the Det labby line as if you lost the TB game even though you didn't play the game?

 

 

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Posted: 4/12/2012 11:32:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Budman717:

Sorry, Neilsy, but you lost me again on a couple of today's plays.

SF - they've gone LLLWL.  Why are you playing them to win?  And why to win 2 units?  Isn't this the first play on them this year?  I'm still confused over the Col series.

Det - they've gone WWWWL.  I understand playing them to win, but why for 2 units?  So you treat the Det labby line as if you lost the TB game even though you didn't play the game?

 

San Fran should have read  (Col lose) .. this is a play against Colorado as they have went LLLW

you are right about Detroit

Now lets start getting some of these units back !

 

 

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Posted: 4/13/2012 6:05:04 AM

Thursday results   + 0.82 units

YTD :  -13.15 units

Friday Plays

Milwuakee  +120  1.87u  tw  2.24u

Milwuakee (Atl lose) +120    2.48u   tw  2.98u

Jays (Baltimore lose)   -187     5.01u to win 2.68u

Cardinals  -1.85   3.7u to win 2u

Cardinals (Cubs lose) 7.84u to win 4.24u

Houston  +185    1.62u to win 3u

Mets  +159   1.99u to win 3.16u

Mets (Philly lose) +159  2.01u to win 3.2u

Texas (Minny lose)  -152   7.48u to win 4.92u

Washington  -142    1.42u to win 1 u

Yankees   -140    3.75u to win 2.68u

Dodgers  -123    1.23 u to win 1u

San Fran (Pittsburgh lose) -170    1.7u to win 1 u

 

Action Friday !!

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Posted: 4/13/2012 9:36:53 PM
Hey, I know you said you back tested this system, do you have any numbers that you can post showing how it did? I like the idea of the system, just curious to see just how it had done in the past.
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Posted: 4/14/2012 1:26:33 AM

Friday results   -1.86 units

YTD :  -15.01 units

Saturday Plays

Yankees   -119    3.22u  to win 2.71u

Yankees (Angels lose)  -119   1.19u to win 1u

Atlanta  -109  1.3u to win 1.19u

Bluejays (Baltimore lose)  -161  8.36u to win 5.19u

St. Louis  -187     8.79u to win 4.7u

St. Louis (Cubs lose)  -187   9.61u to win 5.14u

Miami (Hou lose) -172    5.52u to win 3.21u

San fran  (Pittsburgh lose)   -148  1.48u to win 1u

Washington  -118    1.18u to win 1u

White Sox -123    1.23u to win 1u

 

jayray..each of last 2 years this made aobut 550 units, i will be increasing my unit size every 50 lines cleared, so it should be more...(i hope)

 

GO SENS GO

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Posted: 4/14/2012 1:27:18 AM

OOPS forgot one play

Dodgers -137     1.37u to win 1u

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Posted: 4/15/2012 1:36:23 AM

Saturday results   -3.26 units

YTD :  -18.27 units

Sunday Plays

Yankees  -175    7.39u tw 4.22u

Yankees (Angels lose) -175  3.85u to win 2.19u

Atlanta  -145   2.03u to win  1.4u

Atlanta (Milwuakee lose) -145  5.61u to win 3.87u

Washington  -106   1.06u to win 1u

Washington (Cincy lose) -106  1.06u to win 1u

Blue Jays (Balt lose) -150  13.79u to win 9.19u

Dodgers -214   2.14u to win 1u

Dodgers (SD lose) -214   2.14u to win 1u

Miami (Houston lose)  -203   14.43u to win 7.11u

Cleveland (KC lose)  -119  1.19u to win 1u

San Fran   -152   1.52u to win 1u

San Fran (Pitt lose)  -152   1.52u to win 1u

Boston (TB lose)  -108   1.08u to win 1u

Texas  -175   1.75u to win 1u

White Sox -108  1.08u to win 1 u

 

Need a breakout day ! 

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Posted: 4/15/2012 11:57:19 AM
Neilsy,

you had a request for some NBA info for half lines and i left you the info in that thread.  would think u already found it, but just in case u didn't it should help you.

thanks for the work on your systems.
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#21
Posted: 4/15/2012 11:39:40 PM

Sunday results   +26.82 units 

YTD :  +8.55 units

Monday Plays

Braves  -166   1.66u to win 1u

Boston  -121    1.21u to win 1u

Boston (Tampa lose) -121   1.21u to win 1u

Detroit (KC lose)   -185      1.85u  to win 1u

Arizona (Pitt lose)  -132    3.33u  to win  2.52u

Colorado (San Diego lose)  -130   1.3u to win 1u

San Fran  +100     2.52u  tw 2.52u

Washington  -250    5.15u to win 2.06u

White  Sox  -123   2.56u to win 2.08u

Yankees (Minny lose) tw 1.67u (not sure if they play monday ??)

GO SENS GO !

 

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Posted: 4/16/2012 1:30:59 PM

adding

Yankees (Minny lose)  -179 ...  2.99u to win 1.67u

 

 

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Posted: 4/17/2012 6:14:08 AM

Sunday results   -7.87 units

YTD :  +0.68 units

Tuesday Plays

Atlanta  -103  2.74u to win 2.66u

Boston -119    2.63u to win 2.21u

St.Louis (Cincy lose) -116   2.39u to win 2.06u

Cleveland  -122  1.22u to win 1u

Dodgers  +114   1u to win 1.14u

Dodgers (Brewers lose) +114     2.73u to win 3.11u

Yankees (Minny lose)  -236   11u to win 4.66u

Colorado (SD lose)   -117  2.69u yo win 2.3u

San fran   -138    4.86u to win 3.52u

Blue Jays ( TB lose)  -140  3.09u to win 2.21u

White Sox -130   4.63u to win 3.56u

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#24
Posted: 4/17/2012 10:58:15 AM
Check out the angels (Oakland to lose) and Detroit should be a play (kc to lose again). And why Boston over Texas when they are a play add well
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Posted: 4/17/2012 12:54:58 PM
 looks like i missed a few, early morning after going to the Senators game  ..will confirm on my spreadsheet when i get home tonite !..thanks
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