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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: save the series will not be swept mlb
alexboysport
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#1
Posted: 4/7/2012 7:09:08 PM
betting a team who lose the previos 2, or 3 game of the serie.
just to win the last game.

start Sun, Apr 8

atlanta braves

mets win 1x0
mets win 4x2


cleveland indians

toronto win 7x4  extra inning
toronto win 7x4 extra inning



san fco giants

arizona win 5x4
arizona win 5x4

quote
alexboysport
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#2
Posted: 4/7/2012 7:14:04 PM
cubs chicago

was nationals win 2x1
was nationals win 7x4


boston red sox

detroit win 3x2
detroit win 10x0
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bettor2win
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#3
Posted: 4/7/2012 8:08:42 PM
Have you done ANY back testing with this system?  I ask because there are A LOT of sweeps in MLB every year. Unfortunately I bet on BOS & ATL both first 2 games. 
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bettor2win
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#4
Posted: 4/7/2012 8:29:44 PM
Wow, already a lot of potential sweeps. I see where you are coming from alexboy, you gotta figure 3 outa 5 do not get swept. 
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#5
Posted: 4/8/2012 2:06:47 AM
Add yankess too. Only cubs and indians are at home, all the rest are away. It think it would work well if you only do home teams. Teams that are favorites of -150 to -200 to win a series, sweep a lot more than others. Teams whose series prices are 120 to -140 don't get swept that much and they also don't sweep other teams as often as high favorites.  Series prices this week were det -130, cle -115, nym -110, bal -135, tb -115, ari -120. For small favorites last year, the record was 134-17. I didn't record the small underdogs last year, but it don't think it would be that much different. 
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alexboysport
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#6
Posted: 4/8/2012 2:44:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bettor2win:

Wow, already a lot of potential sweeps. I see where you are coming from alexboy, you gotta figure 3 outa 5 do not get swept. 


well i will betting flat rate lets see
3 win and 2 lose its winning day just have a try
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#7
Posted: 4/8/2012 2:47:24 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by pazim:

Add yankess too. Only cubs and indians are at home, all the rest are away. It think it would work well if you only do home teams. Teams that are favorites of -150 to -200 to win a series, sweep a lot more than others. Teams whose series prices are 120 to -140 don't get swept that much and they also don't sweep other teams as often as high favorites.  Series prices this week were det -130, cle -115, nym -110, bal -135, tb -115, ari -120. For small favorites last year, the record was 134-17. I didn't record the small underdogs last year, but it don't think it would be that much different. 

Where did you find the series prices?  I looked at many books and nobody was offering them...

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alexboysport
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#8
Posted: 4/8/2012 2:48:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pazim:

Add yankess too. Only cubs and indians are at home, all the rest are away. It think it would work well if you only do home teams. Teams that are favorites of -150 to -200 to win a series, sweep a lot more than others. Teams whose series prices are 120 to -140 don't get swept that much and they also don't sweep other teams as often as high favorites.  Series prices this week were det -130, cle -115, nym -110, bal -135, tb -115, ari -120. For small favorites last year, the record was 134-17. I didn't record the small underdogs last year, but it don't think it would be that much different. 


i totally agree with you home team have more chance
but i will try all the picks

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alexboysport
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#9
Posted: 4/8/2012 3:01:59 AM
yankees

tampa win 7x6
tampa win 8x6



minnesota


baltimore win 4x2
baltimore win 8x2



san diego


dodgers win 5x3
dodgers win 6x0
dodgers win 6x5
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alexboysport
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#10
Posted: 4/8/2012 3:27:43 AM
total 8 picks
4 american league,4 nationals league
5 road
3 home
goal 5 win 3 lose flat bet
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alexboysport
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#11
Posted: 4/8/2012 3:42:57 AM
BOS Red Sox(C Buchholz) @ DET Tigers(M Scherzer)
pick BOS Red Sox odd +106

TOR Blue Jays(J Carreno) @ CLE Indians(D Lowe)
pick CLE Indians odd -119

MIN Twins(A Swarzak) @ BAL Orioles(J Hammel)
pick MIN Twins odd +115

NY Yankees(P Hughes) @ TB Rays(J Hellickson)
pick NY Yankees odd +109
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alexboysport
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#12
Posted: 4/8/2012 3:48:26 AM
ATL Braves(M Minor) @ NY Mets(J Niese)
pick ATL Braves odd -104

WAS Nationals(J Zimmermann) @ CHI Cubs(J Samardzija)
pick CHI Cubs odd +114

LA Dodgers(A Harang) @ SD Padres(C Richard)
pick SD Padres odd -119

SF Giants(M Cain) @ ARI Diamondbacks(J Collmenter)
pick SF Giants odd -120
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#13
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:57:27 AM
I have done the math for chasing a home team after losing 1st game of a home series. Results are good but you have to exclude very bad home teams.  SInce I had the excel sheet ready, I also did this homework too. that is bet to win the 3rd game of a home series after the home team loses the first two games.  IT LOOKS VERY GOOD.  Problem is you do not have a lot of bets to place (average of four per team).  I will reports results for 2011 after a while.
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#14
Posted: 4/8/2012 11:08:52 AM
Series prices are not recorded so it's hard to back test it. I use bookmaker and betus for them. They are offered only before the first game of series.
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#15
Posted: 4/8/2012 11:21:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 1958a:

I have done the math for chasing a home team after losing 1st game of a home series. Results are good but you have to exclude very bad home teams.  SInce I had the excel sheet ready, I also did this homework too. that is bet to win the 3rd game of a home series after the home team loses the first two games.  IT LOOKS VERY GOOD.  Problem is you do not have a lot of bets to place (average of four per team).  I will reports results for 2011 after a while.

Thats why chase them and instead of betting small on every series, I chose 4 home teams each week and bet more on them. You can also try doing 2 games chase and implementing a labby.
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alexboysport
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#16
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:36:45 PM
well the deal its going to be just betting home teams

home teams all 3 win today
road teams all 5 lose san fco was up 6x0 and lose
and boston patetic.
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#17
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:16:00 PM
it's suppose to be all losing teams it's profitable just about every year.
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#18
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:30:30 PM
QUOTE  Originally Posted by jv040:

it's suppose to be all losing teams it's profitable just about every year.


3 and 4 game series.
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#19
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:32:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bettor2win:

Wow, already a lot of potential sweeps. I see where you are coming from alexboy, you gotta figure 3 outa 5 do not get swept. 


I think it's like 75% to 80% don't swept if I recall right.
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#20
Posted: 4/10/2012 4:01:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pazim:

Add yankess too. Only cubs and indians are at home, all the rest are away. It think it would work well if you only do home teams. Teams that are favorites of -150 to -200 to win a series, sweep a lot more than others. Teams whose series prices are 120 to -140 don't get swept that much and they also don't sweep other teams as often as high favorites.  Series prices this week were det -130, cle -115, nym -110, bal -135, tb -115, ari -120. For small favorites last year, the record was 134-17. I didn't record the small underdogs last year, but it don't think it would be that much different. 


I'm assuming there was profit last year do you know what it was?
it sounds better to do it this way. the system I bought also says to bet on every 3 or 4 game series for a win in the last game not to get swept

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#21
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:21:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pazim:

Add yankess too. Only cubs and indians are at home, all the rest are away. It think it would work well if you only do home teams. Teams that are favorites of -150 to -200 to win a series, sweep a lot more than others. Teams whose series prices are 120 to -140 don't get swept that much and they also don't sweep other teams as often as high favorites.  Series prices this week were det -130, cle -115, nym -110, bal -135, tb -115, ari -120. For small favorites last year, the record was 134-17. I didn't record the small underdogs last year, but it don't think it would be that much different. 

.
are you posting plays this year for the parameters given?
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#22
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:02:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jv040:


.
are you posting plays this year for the parameters given?
No I am not. I started tracking this halfway through the season last year and I only kept track of the chase record. This year I am doing record for the last game too, if they lose the first two of the series. Chase system isn't much profitable. Each loss is equal to 7 units. I am going to try adding more filters to it and by next year I should be able to minimize losses and try posting plays.
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#23
Posted: 4/11/2012 7:28:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pazim:

Add yankess too. Only cubs and indians are at home, all the rest are away. It think it would work well if you only do home teams. Teams that are favorites of -150 to -200 to win a series, sweep a lot more than others. Teams whose series prices are 120 to -140 don't get swept that much and they also don't sweep other teams as often as high favorites.  Series prices this week were det -130, cle -115, nym -110, bal -135, tb -115, ari -120. For small favorites last year, the record was 134-17. I didn't record the small underdogs last year, but it don't think it would be that much different. 


how far into the season do you play?
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#24
Posted: 4/11/2012 10:48:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pazim:

Add yankess too. Only cubs and indians are at home, all the rest are away. It think it would work well if you only do home teams. Teams that are favorites of -150 to -200 to win a series, sweep a lot more than others. Teams whose series prices are 120 to -140 don't get swept that much and they also don't sweep other teams as often as high favorites.  Series prices this week were det -130, cle -115, nym -110, bal -135, tb -115, ari -120. For small favorites last year, the record was 134-17. I didn't record the small underdogs last year, but it don't think it would be that much different. 


are you talking about a 3 game chase for small series was 134-17

the chase at home after the 2 losses was 134 to 17 cause I'm backtracking this and no way.
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#25
Posted: 4/11/2012 10:52:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jv040:



are you talking about a 3 game chase for small series was 134-17

the chase at home after the 2 losses was 134 to 17 cause I'm backtracking this and no way.
I am talking about 3 games chase.
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