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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: $50 to $5,000 BATORF chase
neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
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#1
Posted: 4/6/2012 5:53:11 PM

I somehow managed to screw up my other thread so i cant post on it, continuing with this one, basically chasing against the one run favorite win ..12% first bet.88% 2nd bet.. Bettor, saw your comments in my first thread..i will pm you dont have a lot of time to backtest since my "real" baseball system starts soon and is alot of work..anyway need to hit about 267 in a row of these to hit 5k ..very unlikely, i know, but this chase is for fun..anyway hit #1 with Baltimore on run line.266 to go

starting roll $50

current roll $50.65

level 1 - 12% of  $50.65 = $6.07 total bet

rockies - 1.5 +136  2.9 to win 3.94

Houston ML +117  3.17 to win 3.71

 

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bettor2win
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#2
Posted: 4/6/2012 6:58:41 PM

Well, once you hit 1K it gets a lot easier my friend. GL. Curious to see your baseball system. Are you going to post it or do you keep it to yourself? 

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Posted: 4/6/2012 10:49:00 PM

 265 to go !  ..gonna get saturday game 1 in now

starting roll  $50

current roll $51.42

level 1 12% of 51.42 = 6.17

KC ML +173     $2.77 to win $4.79

Angels  - 1.5 +122  $3.40 to win $4.15

bettor2win, i am not sure if i will post my other system, mainly because of time it adds to post .. may just post the plays and explain as i go.. it made about 600 units each of the past 2 years..so hopefully it does well this year..

 

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BookieCrusher88 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 4/7/2012 4:11:22 AM
neilsy, just curious about this system. Correct me if I'm wrong but if this like arbitrage?
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#5
Posted: 4/7/2012 4:20:23 AM
What if the favorite won by only 1?
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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 4/7/2012 8:23:04 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

What if the favorite won by only 1?

that is the ONLY way to lose the bet , BATORF = Bet against the one run favorite.... this happens about 18% of the time...

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Posted: 4/7/2012 8:50:37 AM
Oh now I get it! Thanks for clarifying it
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Posted: 4/7/2012 6:53:10 PM

 264 to go !!

starting roll $50

current roll $52.81

level 1 bet  12% of 52.81 = 6.34

Rockies  - 1.5  +132    $3.17 to win $4.18

Astros ML + 122  $3.17 to win  $3.87

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#9
Posted: 4/7/2012 9:08:08 PM
This is pretty interesting, but why risk the rest of your roll on the 2nd bet? I would be interested to see if this could work over the course of the season with smarter money management.
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Posted: 4/7/2012 10:57:11 PM

 263 to go  !!

starting roll $50

current roll $53.51

level 1 bet 12% of 53.51 = 6.42

not gonna be near a computer tommorow, so just getting one in now for Sunday

Rockies - 1.5 +126 $3.21 to win $4.04

Astros ML + 126 $3.21 to win $4.04

 

zcecil .. i have backtested this, and run many queries, and this is break even at best straight betting over the course of a season, i am chasing hoping to avoid 2 in a row.and even still, the odds are pretty stacked against me..

 

 

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Posted: 4/8/2012 11:57:55 PM

 262 to go !!

starting roll $50

current roll $54.34

level 1 bet 12% of 53.51 = 6.52

monday first play

Marlins ML +137      3.26 to win 4.47

Phillies -1.5 +156   3.26 to win 5.09

 

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Posted: 4/9/2012 3:49:03 PM

261 to go !!

starting roll $50

current roll $55.55

level 1 bet 12% of 55.55 = 6.67

Giants ML +149      $3.20 to win  $4.77

Rockies -1.5  +123  $3.47 to win 4.27

 

 

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Posted: 4/9/2012 9:22:03 PM

 260 to go !!

starting roll $50

current roll $56.85

level 1 bet 12% of 56.85 = 6.82

Goin for the trifecta today !

Royal ML +109    $3.92 to win  $4.27

Athletics  -1.5 +183  $2.90 to win $5.31

 

 

 

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BookieCrusher88 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 4/10/2012 1:49:46 AM
Neilsy, just curious abiut this. How do you choose games and can you do this to every single game a day?

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Posted: 4/10/2012 1:50:12 AM
Neilsy, just curious abiut this. How do you choose games and can you do this to every single game a day?

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#16
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:49:55 AM

 ..what i get for being greedy and going for the tri-fecta

Level 2 play - ALL IN BABY!!

Tampa ML +107     29.03 to win 31.06

Detroit -1.5 +1.76  21 to win 36.96

Bookie Crusher, technically you could do this playing any game that had plus money on both the ML for the Dog and Runline for the fave.. but it is not profitable..this thread is for fun, for profit i suugest following many of the good threads running here..(Bettors RPI, the Rizz .even my 33 system will make a solid profit if the past in any indicator) ..GL

 

 

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Posted: 4/10/2012 5:11:07 PM

259 to go .. we live on

starting roll $50

current roll $57.96

level 1 bet 12% of 57.96 = 6.96

Red Sox -1.5   +136     3.36 to win 4.57

Jays ML +114     3.60 to win 4.10

 

 

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Posted: 4/10/2012 10:35:23 PM

 258 to go

starting roll $50

current roll $58.70

level 1 bet 12% of 57.96 = 7.04

wednesday

Cardinals ML +122   $3.74  to win $4.56

Reds -1.5       +164    $3.30 to win  $5,41

 

 

 

 

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Posted: 4/11/2012 3:41:14 PM

Level 2- ALL IN AGAIN

 

Marlins ML  28.66 to win 36.68

Phillies -1.5   23 to win 39.33

 

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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:15:44 AM

.. as well cleared a bonus which i will add to this,means only 226 to

starting roll $50

Current roll  $106.86

Level 1 play  12% of 106.86  = $12.82

 

Rockies +113  $6.82 to win $7.71

Giants -1.5 +135  $6 to win  $8.10

 

 

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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:34:14 PM

225 to go  ! 

 

starting roll $50

Current roll  $108.15

Level 1 play  12% of 106.86  = $12.98

Pirates ML +120      $6.98 to win $8.38

Dodgers -1.5  +165  $6 to win $9.90

 

 

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bettor2win
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#22
Posted: 4/12/2012 6:48:10 PM
LOL such a simple system Nielsy. I love it! I think Im guna throw some side plays on this(like reserve $100 on the side) and see if it can build me some free bet money. Keep going man! I will start my own 300 win streak starting TONIGHT! LOVE IT BRO!
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#23
Posted: 4/13/2012 8:33:30 AM
Neilsy, I love this fun system.
BTW, what is your math formula to choose the amount to bet on each side ?
I mean, for the last game, 12.98$ to bet, how to determine the 6.98$ on Pirates and 6$ on Dodgers ?
Thank you

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Posted: 4/13/2012 9:15:08 AM

 .. I dunno guys, this is fun, but damn, I am all in almost every day lately ..how long can i keep dodging that second bullet !

That being said..ALL IN BABY !!!!!

Yankees   -1.5   +130    $47.18 to win $61.33

Angels ML +135   $47 to win $63.45

Xavier.. when the odds are far apart  i.e   +120  and +170 . I try to keep the payouts fairly close, i have a formula in my spreadsheet to calculate the amount to bet on each..

GO SENS GO !!

 

 

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#25
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:02:30 AM
thanks Neilsy, but where can I find your spreadsheet ? 

If you play with a 3 games chasing system, what could be your % of bet for A, B and C ? (instead of 12% and 88% for a 2 games chasing system).

GL Neilsy, 225 to go, it's not so far 
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