$50 to $5,000 BATORF chase

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: $50 to $5,000 BATORF chase
neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/6/2012 5:53:11 PM

I somehow managed to screw up my other thread so i cant post on it, continuing with this one, basically chasing against the one run favorite win ..12% first bet.88% 2nd bet.. Bettor, saw your comments in my first thread..i will pm you dont have a lot of time to backtest since my "real" baseball system starts soon and is alot of work..anyway need to hit about 267 in a row of these to hit 5k ..very unlikely, i know, but this chase is for fun..anyway hit #1 with Baltimore on run line.266 to go

starting roll $50

current roll $50.65

level 1 - 12% of  $50.65 = $6.07 total bet

rockies - 1.5 +136  2.9 to win 3.94

Houston ML +117  3.17 to win 3.71

 

bettor2win PM bettor2win
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Posted: 4/6/2012 6:58:41 PM

Well, once you hit 1K it gets a lot easier my friend. GL. Curious to see your baseball system. Are you going to post it or do you keep it to yourself? 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/6/2012 10:49:00 PM

 265 to go !  ..gonna get saturday game 1 in now

starting roll  $50

current roll $51.42

level 1 12% of 51.42 = 6.17

KC ML +173     $2.77 to win $4.79

Angels  - 1.5 +122  $3.40 to win $4.15

bettor2win, i am not sure if i will post my other system, mainly because of time it adds to post .. may just post the plays and explain as i go.. it made about 600 units each of the past 2 years..so hopefully it does well this year..

 

BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 4/7/2012 4:11:22 AM
neilsy, just curious about this system. Correct me if I'm wrong but if this like arbitrage?
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 4/7/2012 4:20:23 AM
What if the favorite won by only 1?
neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/7/2012 8:23:04 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

What if the favorite won by only 1?

that is the ONLY way to lose the bet , BATORF = Bet against the one run favorite.... this happens about 18% of the time...

BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 4/7/2012 8:50:37 AM
Oh now I get it! Thanks for clarifying it
neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/7/2012 6:53:10 PM

 264 to go !!

starting roll $50

current roll $52.81

level 1 bet  12% of 52.81 = 6.34

Rockies  - 1.5  +132    $3.17 to win $4.18

Astros ML + 122  $3.17 to win  $3.87

zcecil PM zcecil
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Posted: 4/7/2012 9:08:08 PM
This is pretty interesting, but why risk the rest of your roll on the 2nd bet? I would be interested to see if this could work over the course of the season with smarter money management.
neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/7/2012 10:57:11 PM

 263 to go  !!

starting roll $50

current roll $53.51

level 1 bet 12% of 53.51 = 6.42

not gonna be near a computer tommorow, so just getting one in now for Sunday

Rockies - 1.5 +126 $3.21 to win $4.04

Astros ML + 126 $3.21 to win $4.04

 

zcecil .. i have backtested this, and run many queries, and this is break even at best straight betting over the course of a season, i am chasing hoping to avoid 2 in a row.and even still, the odds are pretty stacked against me..

 

 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/8/2012 11:57:55 PM

 262 to go !!

starting roll $50

current roll $54.34

level 1 bet 12% of 53.51 = 6.52

monday first play

Marlins ML +137      3.26 to win 4.47

Phillies -1.5 +156   3.26 to win 5.09

 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/9/2012 3:49:03 PM

261 to go !!

starting roll $50

current roll $55.55

level 1 bet 12% of 55.55 = 6.67

Giants ML +149      $3.20 to win  $4.77

Rockies -1.5  +123  $3.47 to win 4.27

 

 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/9/2012 9:22:03 PM

 260 to go !!

starting roll $50

current roll $56.85

level 1 bet 12% of 56.85 = 6.82

Goin for the trifecta today !

Royal ML +109    $3.92 to win  $4.27

Athletics  -1.5 +183  $2.90 to win $5.31

 

 

 

BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 4/10/2012 1:49:46 AM
Neilsy, just curious abiut this. How do you choose games and can you do this to every single game a day?

BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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Posted: 4/10/2012 1:50:12 AM
Neilsy, just curious abiut this. How do you choose games and can you do this to every single game a day?

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/10/2012 10:49:55 AM

 ..what i get for being greedy and going for the tri-fecta

Level 2 play - ALL IN BABY!!

Tampa ML +107     29.03 to win 31.06

Detroit -1.5 +1.76  21 to win 36.96

Bookie Crusher, technically you could do this playing any game that had plus money on both the ML for the Dog and Runline for the fave.. but it is not profitable..this thread is for fun, for profit i suugest following many of the good threads running here..(Bettors RPI, the Rizz .even my 33 system will make a solid profit if the past in any indicator) ..GL

 

 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/10/2012 5:11:07 PM

259 to go .. we live on

starting roll $50

current roll $57.96

level 1 bet 12% of 57.96 = 6.96

Red Sox -1.5   +136     3.36 to win 4.57

Jays ML +114     3.60 to win 4.10

 

 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/10/2012 10:35:23 PM

 258 to go

starting roll $50

current roll $58.70

level 1 bet 12% of 57.96 = 7.04

wednesday

Cardinals ML +122   $3.74  to win $4.56

Reds -1.5       +164    $3.30 to win  $5,41

 

 

 

 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/11/2012 3:41:14 PM

Level 2- ALL IN AGAIN

 

Marlins ML  28.66 to win 36.68

Phillies -1.5   23 to win 39.33

 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:15:44 AM

.. as well cleared a bonus which i will add to this,means only 226 to

starting roll $50

Current roll  $106.86

Level 1 play  12% of 106.86  = $12.82

 

Rockies +113  $6.82 to win $7.71

Giants -1.5 +135  $6 to win  $8.10

 

 

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:34:14 PM

225 to go  ! 

 

starting roll $50

Current roll  $108.15

Level 1 play  12% of 106.86  = $12.98

Pirates ML +120      $6.98 to win $8.38

Dodgers -1.5  +165  $6 to win $9.90

 

 

bettor2win PM bettor2win
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:48:10 PM
LOL such a simple system Nielsy. I love it! I think Im guna throw some side plays on this(like reserve $100 on the side) and see if it can build me some free bet money. Keep going man! I will start my own 300 win streak starting TONIGHT! LOVE IT BRO!
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Xaviercito PM Xaviercito
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Posted: 4/13/2012 8:33:30 AM
Neilsy, I love this fun system.
BTW, what is your math formula to choose the amount to bet on each side ?
I mean, for the last game, 12.98$ to bet, how to determine the 6.98$ on Pirates and 6$ on Dodgers ?
Thank you

neilsy25 PM neilsy25
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Posted: 4/13/2012 9:15:08 AM

 .. I dunno guys, this is fun, but damn, I am all in almost every day lately ..how long can i keep dodging that second bullet !

That being said..ALL IN BABY !!!!!

Yankees   -1.5   +130    $47.18 to win $61.33

Angels ML +135   $47 to win $63.45

Xavier.. when the odds are far apart  i.e   +120  and +170 . I try to keep the payouts fairly close, i have a formula in my spreadsheet to calculate the amount to bet on each..

GO SENS GO !!

 

 

Xaviercito PM Xaviercito
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Posted: 4/13/2012 10:02:30 AM
thanks Neilsy, but where can I find your spreadsheet ? 

If you play with a 3 games chasing system, what could be your % of bet for A, B and C ? (instead of 12% and 88% for a 2 games chasing system).

GL Neilsy, 225 to go, it's not so far 
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