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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012 Opening Game Favorite
therizz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
therizz
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#276
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:08:29 PM

Plays for 5/8

SEASON RECORD: 33-3                                       -3.13U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 18-1 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line o/u towin

Ser #36 (G2) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190          80/2.67U

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                  NL:
x-x-50-75                                           x-61 
x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23

22-23

22-23

Base 1U = 30
quote
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#277
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:10:04 PM

Plays for 5/9

SEASON RECORD: 33-3                                       -3.13U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:1)
NL: 18-1 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line o/u towin

Ser #36 (G3) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190          95/3.16U

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                  NL:
x-x-50-75                                           x-61 
x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23

22-23

22-23

Base 1U = 30
quote
glefkb01
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#278
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:40:21 PM
I am going broke chasing these games to C ....WHERE IS THE CONSISTENCIES of years past.     I think we are starting to plateau but man even the B2W system has been lousy lately.What happen to April when we were winning 1000 a week!! 
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glefkb01
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#279
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:40:34 PM
Cmon PHILLY!
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Jattdoit
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#280
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:47:43 PM
Rizz you do not force anybody to bet, not your fault its been tough start. You have been providing valuable info for us of those who would never have bet baseball otherwise. I for one have been careful with certain teams. Nobody has any reason to girl. It's all about control. Thank-you for taking the time to post, hopefully we all can get on track.
Posted using a mobile device.
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glefkb01
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#281
Posted: 5/9/2012 6:16:21 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

Rizz you do not force anybody to bet, not your fault its been tough start. You have been providing valuable info for us of those who would never have bet baseball otherwise. I for one have been careful with certain teams. Nobody has any reason to girl. It's all about control. Thank-you for taking the time to post, hopefully we all can get on track.

If this was aimed at me... I was venting the obvious.    I like this system very much and am up overall as a result...just like everyone dont like giving it back but that the nature of the beast.    TheRizz, B2W have had AWESOME success and I am grateful for them sharing.    

Once more....go PHILLY!

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Jattdoit
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#282
Posted: 5/9/2012 6:29:17 PM
No friend directed at anybody who was upset with, which you didn't seem to be. Goodluck on Philly!
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Jattdoit
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#283
Posted: 5/9/2012 6:31:21 PM
* upset with Rizz...
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#284
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:11:39 PM
I think a filter for this system this year should be to never bet on the Phillies.

I'm only kidding but goddamn, do they ever suck?  That bullpen is atrocious and they have no offense whatsoever.  This team is completely fucked for this year.  The books are just overvaluing them based on their starting pitchers.
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#285
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:26:43 PM
Phillies Manager and Pen suck just as bad. Lee is pitching a very good game. Take him out when you already have the lead and he only has thrown 84 pitches only to leave it to your bullpen which has blown the last 2 games of the series WTF are you thinking!!!!!
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#286
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:40:31 PM
I didn't check all the series this yr, only the ones that ended up losing.... 2 of them would have been W's if we chased for the first 5 innings only.

I hear a lot of people say that the lines are mostly based on who the starting pitcher is. SP do not usually last more than 7 innings, and since a lot of BP's blow saves, I think I will do some research to see if the first 5 innings are a better bet.
Not sure if anyone has tested it before, but if so please let me know.
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#287
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:48:16 PM
4 losses on the year now.  Still a good record.  On the bright side, I think we'll run off winners for a long while now.  
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#288
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:56:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by therizz:

Guys,
This shat is unbelievable.  What a horrible stretch we are on.  We continue to see inflated lines on some popular teams that are having really crappy seasons, esp Phi and Bos.....  I would advise those of you wanting to be more conservative to do the over .500 win percentage at home or stick just to the filtered plays.  I would not blame anyone for bailing at this point.  I have backtested the crap out of this and the win percentages for the different levels of plays always turned out pretty good but I can't even remember the last +money day we have had and now we are staring at another C bet.  I am just hoping this ship rights itself soon.



We're still with you my man! Just trying to improve things as no one likes losing.

Just a suggestion but how about we try tracking the first 5 innings as well? We would of avoided the BOS/PHI losses, however, to be fair I didn't back test for the other plays.
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#289
Posted: 5/9/2012 10:06:16 PM
Sorry guys, this system sucks balls this year.  You guys could probably do pretty well by fading at this point.  I am going to keep posting standard system, but I agree we should track 1st 5 innings and filtering out under .500 teams as well.  My databases do not have scores by inning, so I can't backtest it...  Now we are looking at Boston as another play for tomorrow


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#290
Posted: 5/9/2012 10:09:08 PM

Plays for 5/9

SEASON RECORD: 33-4                                       -9.13U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:2)
NL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line o/u towin

Ser #36 (G3) 7:00 nym @ PHI -190        95/3.16U

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                  NL:
x-x-50-75                                           x-60-90 
x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80-90

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23

22-23

22-23

Base 1U = 30


quote
therizz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#291
Posted: 5/9/2012 10:10:59 PM

Plays for 5/10

SEASON RECORD: 33-4                                       -9.13U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:2)
NL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line o/u towin

Ser #38 (G1) 7:00 cle @ BOS -150  8.5       50/1.67U

* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1




Labby Lines
AL:                                                  NL:
x-x-50-75                                           x-60-90 
x-55-55-66                                        15-61-65-80
15-86-75-66-75                                  15-62-80-90

*O/U Filter Plays

22-23

22-23

22-23

Base 1U = 30
quote
SpOrTzFaN1
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#292
Posted: 5/9/2012 10:57:16 PM
-9 units??
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hehrsy
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#293
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:29:51 AM
Still a whole season left, im not worried, this system will be fine 
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glefkb01
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#294
Posted: 5/10/2012 6:37:01 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

Phillies Manager and Pen suck just as bad. Lee is pitching a very good game. Take him out when you already have the lead and he only has thrown 84 pitches only to leave it to your bullpen which has blown the last 2 games of the series WTF are you thinking!!!!!

I agree.... you take Lee out which is understandable because its his first game back after the DL... then you put your reliever in who blows the lead. now your down by one....    you let that guy stay in and give up another run now down by 2, then YOU BRING HIM BACK FOR A THIRD INNING TO REALLY BLOW THE LEAD AS HE GIVES UP 4 BEFORE YOU TAKE HIM OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHAT ARE YOU THE TIGERS OF THE NL!!!!    CMON!

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#295
Posted: 5/10/2012 7:31:04 AM
I think its time to put in the two filters Rizz was talking bout.... Dont play teams that are below or hovering .500 and maybe we should just play teams that the O/U 9.  Also if teams arent playing good dont play them....GL all... use you your judgement if you dont like the team dont play it...
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#296
Posted: 5/10/2012 7:33:40 AM
New series on friday lets bounce back... If anyone has another idea for filters spit em out were here to win .... I love the fact nobody is bashing riz but supporting em thats awesome.. Thanks for sharing Rizz
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#297
Posted: 5/10/2012 3:30:49 PM
Here are my results from 2011 for a home series chase for the 1st 5 innings only.

A 112
B 43
C 22 (1 tied an a bet, 1 tied a+b bet)
L cwsx2 cin (won B gm bet) Atl (same as cin won Bgm bet, but lost 1st five 1-0) Det (lost around All-start break [won C gm bet], same as 1CWS loss) cle lost on 8/26-28.
TB (only 1 gm, rest of chase tied)
Chc lost a 2 gm chase. gm3 tied.
fla lost gm1 only tied rest
Stl lost 2 1gm was a tie
Sea lost 1st 2 tied 3rd
oak lost a 2gm series
cin lost a 2gm series
SF lost 1st 2 tied 3rd
Atl lost 1st 2 tied 3rd (won game)
Bos tied 2 of 3
Bos 2 gm loss, gm3 ppd
Lad lost 1 tied 2
cin tied gm1 lost 2/3
CWS lost 2 tied 1 gm
Atl lost gm1 tied 2/3
Cle tied first lost 2/3
NYY tied 1 lost 2
Tor tied 1 lost 2
Det lost gm1 tied 2/3
CWS tied 1st lost 2/3
atl tied 1st lost 2/3
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#298
Posted: 5/10/2012 3:49:04 PM
I did this yrs last night and ended up missing a few series. so I recheck today and now I have a few extra

I don't know what happened. if anyone wants to check again, please be my guest!
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#299
Posted: 5/10/2012 3:49:38 PM
opps the results

2012
A 21
B 9 (1 A as tie)
C 1 (or B as gm2 was a tie through 5)
L SF DET Phi (won C gm bet) LAA (tie a bet 0-0, won gm1)
missing 3 chases?

2012
A 26
B 9
C
L Det vs Sea, sf vs mia, Phi vs mets 4/13-15 (won C gm bet)
LAA (tie a bet 0-0, won gm1)
TB lost gm1 tied gm2 (won full game), no gm3

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#300
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:01:13 PM
forgot to mention the second time i did 2012 I made it so that when a game is tied you redo the bet that was tied. 2011 i did not do that.
If that theory was applied to the system then A + B games would hit at a higher rate than C games (and obviously less C bets) along with a certain labby lines, 1st 5 can be just as if not more profitable than full games
At least that is what I believe.
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