2012 Opening Game Favorite

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012 Opening Game Favorite
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/1/2012 1:55:52 PM
Another season of MLB is about to start.  Last two seasons have been fairly profitable. Links to the last two seasons and backtesting here:

2011
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101020098

2010
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100726693

System is pretty simple. Look for a home team starting a 3 game or more series opening as a favorite of -145 or higher in the first game and chase for up to 3 games for a win.  This thread will use an aggressive labouchere money management system with separate lines for AL and NL.

If the first game of the series also have the over/under set at 9 runs or higher the series have a higher rate of success (about 98% historically).  I am probably going to double up on these this year.  I will do my very best to post the plays and the amounts every night but have a very demanding work schedule that precludes me from doing this all the time.  Those that know the system and money management often help out to make sure we don't miss the plays.  This is a marathon and not a sprint.  The dogs usually bite at the beginning of the season, there will be some inexplicable losses, etc.  The only hope is that we are making money by seasons end.


therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/1/2012 2:04:22 PM
We will not play any 2 game series this year.

Interleague series are only played if they meet the over under filter for game 1

SEASON RECORD:   0-0
AL: 0-0      (G1:0, G2: 0, G3:0)
NL: 0-0      (G1:0, G2: 0, G3:0)
O/U Filter   (G1:0, G2: 0, G3:0)

Series    Game  Time          Line                o/u       towin
Ser #1   (G1)       Pending




Labby Lines
AL:                                                   NL:
10-10                                                 10-10
10-10                                                 10-10
10-10                                                 10-10
xgame PM xgame
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Posted: 4/1/2012 3:16:41 PM
Thanks therizz!!! Check in
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bettor2win PM bettor2win
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Posted: 4/1/2012 3:47:59 PM
Hey RIZZ! GL Brotha!! Let's knock em dead this year!
robbypark PM robbypark
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Posted: 4/1/2012 9:11:50 PM
Looking forward to it
airattackers PM airattackers
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Posted: 4/2/2012 1:38:40 AM
im in also..
metsrinsane05 PM metsrinsane05
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Posted: 4/3/2012 6:14:24 PM
will you post plays here?
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/3/2012 6:39:41 PM

thanks guys

Yes, I will post the plays here and amounts to win based on the labby lines

Season should start thursday

Ddubb_Steady PM Ddubb_Steady
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Posted: 4/3/2012 7:11:16 PM
GOOD LUCK RIZZ    
gentruchi PM gentruchi
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Posted: 4/4/2012 2:10:31 AM
Good Luck therizz, let's kill the books again, thanks one more time for sharing it!
Peters821 PM Peters821
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:32:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by therizz:

thanks guys

Yes, I will post the plays here and amounts to win based on the labby lines

Season should start thursday



What about Miami-169 on Wed
Peters821 PM Peters821
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:59:23 PM
It's only a one game series, so no play.
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/4/2012 6:07:09 PM

SEASON RECORD: 0-0
AL: 0-0 (G1:0, G2: 0, G3:0)
NL: 0-0 (G1:0, G2: 0, G3:0)
O/U Filter (G1:0, G2: 0, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin
Ser #1 (G1)  1:00   bos @ DET -145     7           1U

Ser #2 (G1)  4:00   mia @ CIN -150     7.5         1U




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
15-15                                                        15-15
15-15                                                        15-15
15-15                                                        15-15

Base 1U = 30

xgame PM xgame
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Posted: 4/4/2012 10:20:28 PM
Thx let the gm begin!!!
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robbypark PM robbypark
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Posted: 4/4/2012 10:20:45 PM
Sweet, let's make that money and hope for game 1 wins haha.
metsrinsane05 PM metsrinsane05
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Posted: 4/5/2012 12:09:01 AM
what does 15-15 mean? btw i will be using the system but only with the 9 run filter, along with B2Ws system... u guys r the best
HockeyTeeth PM HockeyTeeth
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Posted: 4/5/2012 12:15:03 AM
Best of luck. 
koman22 PM koman22
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Posted: 4/5/2012 12:30:05 AM
Will definitely add this to the systems I'm using. I appreciate the info. 
Tdawg07 PM Tdawg07
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Posted: 4/5/2012 12:35:10 PM
So Rizz , basically  bet on a home team starting  a three game or more series if their -145 or higher... i get that  but what about the over/under  u said if its 9 or higher... do u bet the over or the under if its 9 or higher?
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/5/2012 8:01:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tdawg07:

So Rizz , basically  bet on a home team starting  a three game or more series if their -145 or higher... i get that  but what about the over/under  u said if its 9 or higher... do u bet the over or the under if its 9 or higher?


The teams are selected as you mentioned.  The over/under filter applies to the over/under set for the first game of the series as well.  These series that have a o/u set at 9 or higher hit at a higher percentage than the other series, historically 98% or so.  I generally play more money on these series.  Some people will choose to only play those series and skip the others.  To each their own


therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/5/2012 8:02:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by metsrinsane05:

what does 15-15 mean? btw i will be using the system but only with the 9 run filter, along with B2Ws system... u guys r the best


These are my labouchere lines.  My base unit is for 30.
Peters821 PM Peters821
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Posted: 4/5/2012 8:25:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tdawg07:

So Rizz , basically  bet on a home team starting  a three game or more series if their -145 or higher... i get that  but what about the over/under  u said if its 9 or higher... do u bet the over or the under if its 9 or higher?


From my understanding, it doesn't matter home or away.  Am i wrong?
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/5/2012 8:32:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Peters821:



From my understanding, it doesn't matter home or away.  Am i wrong?


Only play on home teams now.  used to play both but changed it last season.
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/5/2012 8:35:59 PM

Plays for 4/5

SEASON RECORD: 2-0                                +2U
AL: 1-0 (G1:1, G2: 0, G3:0)
NL: 1-0 (G1:1, G2: 0, G3:0)
O/U Filter (G1:0, G2: 0, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin
Ser #1 (G1)  1:00   bos @ DET -145     7           1U

Ser #2 (G1)  4:00   mia @ CIN -150     7.5         1U




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
x-x               +30                                        x-x      +30
15-15                                                        15-15
15-15                                                        15-15

Base 1U = 30
therizz PM therizz
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Posted: 4/5/2012 8:49:51 PM

Plays for 4/6

SEASON RECORD: 2-0                                +2U
AL: 1-0 (G1:1, G2: 0, G3:0)
NL: 1-0 (G1:1, G2: 0, G3:0)
O/U Filter (G1:0, G2: 0, G3:0)

Series Game Time Line               o/u                towin
*Ser #3 (G1)  2:00   cws @ TEX -170     9.5           1U

Ser #4 (G1)  10:00   kc @ LAA -198     7.5             1U




Labby Lines
AL:                                                        NL:
15-15                                                        15-15
15-15                                                        15-15
15-15                                                        15-15

Base 1U = 30
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