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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Pretty Simple MLB Dog System
BCap888
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#1
Posted: 4/1/2012 12:27:39 PM
I haven't posted anything before but I just found a pretty simple underdog system that was extremely profitable last year for the whole league and over the last 3 years was good as well when betting on American League teams only. I apologize if anyone has posted this before, as far as I know it's an original idea. The rules of the system are:

The game must be the first game of a series of at least 3 games.
The team you're betting has to be an underdog of +150 or more.
The team you're betting has to have scored 5+ runs in each of it's past 2 games.

If the team loses the 1st game of the series, you chase the series for a win, but, you don't double your bet or increase your bet at all. You just continue betting the same amount.

My thinking: While your not always going to be betting on a good team with odds of greater than +150, you are betting on a team that has scored some runs and may be hot. Plus because the team is an underdog you're almost always getting a good value. And with such high odds you can make up ground relatively quickly.

In 2011 this system was 22-19 for +18.25 units.

From 2009-2011, American League teams were +21.21 units and National League teams were -3.29 units.

There weren't a ton of plays but there was an average of 58 games over the last 3 years.

Because the 2011 season was so profitable, I'm inclined to use this system for the entire MLB rather than just the A.L. but there's going to be risk either way with a dog system.

I would appreciate any feedback and I will try to post the plays on this thread when they occur.
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Luckydan
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#2
Posted: 4/1/2012 12:32:10 PM
Nice work. Love dog systems like this. Sound logic. Look forward to following it.

Good Luck.
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Luckydan
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#3
Posted: 4/1/2012 12:54:49 PM
If you go to game 2 or 3 of a series, are you still playing 1 unit regardless of the odds?  Favorite (unlikely) or dog?  Do you have to get +150 or more for games 2 and 3?  Potentially, you could take an overall loss for the series even when you win game 3. Correct?

Do you have the game 1, game 2 and game 3 records available for 2011? I tracked Baltimore and Minnesota just to get a feel for the system.  Even shorter odds (+135 - +145) looked good on that random sampling. I liked what I saw.

Good luck.
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BCap888
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#4
Posted: 4/1/2012 1:33:38 PM
Dan- Yes, I still played one unit on the 2nd and 3rd games regardless of the odds. And there were actually a few favorites in those games, usually it was Seattle or a team with one really good starter that would be a favorite if he pitched. And no just the first game has to be +150. And finally yes, you could take a loss if you lose the first 2 games and win the 3rd. The only way you wouldn't is with +200 or more on the 3rd game, unless the 2nd game was a favorite. 

I didn't keep track of how each series did, just individual games. I felt weird calling it a chase since I essentially looked at each game as it's own wager.

Thanks guys. GL
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BCap888
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#5
Posted: 4/1/2012 1:35:07 PM
Just realized it was only one person, my bad lol.
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Luckydan
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#6
Posted: 4/1/2012 3:41:06 PM
BCap888,

I  did a back check on the 2008 AL season. It netted +17.49 units. I used +1.40 and above on the first game. It went 12-4 in game 1. Overall it only lost game 3 once (Seattle). If you expanded the three game series to four, it won another 2.3 units. Maybe off a bit, but definitely worth following this year.

Interesting angle. Thanks again for sharing.

Good Luck..
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bettor2win
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#7
Posted: 4/1/2012 4:20:07 PM

These are the kind of posts we need here!! GL BCap.  Thanks for the system. I will be following this one.

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#8
Posted: 4/1/2012 4:22:44 PM
I think with the parity in baseball, this is a great system to capitalize on. 
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BCap888
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#9
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:23:50 AM
Nice Dan. GL guys.
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#10
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:40:12 AM
nice work
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#11
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:54:31 AM
@ bcap888...i like your system and will definitely be following it...where do i find the plays at on a daily basis..
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BCap888
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#12
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:12:31 PM
Air- I'll try to post them on this thread when they occur. There shouldn't be any until after the first week, but if there is one I'll put it on here.
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#13
Posted: 4/3/2012 1:16:12 PM
GOOD STUFF!!! LET'S GET THAT PAPER  
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BCap888
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#14
Posted: 4/3/2012 2:30:36 PM
I have another system that was +49.6 units from the American League alone since 2009. I haven't even back checked the NL yet so I'm sure that number is going up! Once I finish the NL I put that one up. Probably tomorrow. GL everybody!
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#15
Posted: 4/3/2012 2:37:49 PM
pm me the system I can help back check.
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BCap888
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#16
Posted: 4/3/2012 8:48:18 PM
I just checked a few teams and the National League is BRUTAL. I'm still going to post but I'm only going to use it as an American League system.
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mikkii10
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#17
Posted: 4/4/2012 1:05:12 PM
well lets see what happens this season then  and hope you can post 3 under dogs then too
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#18
Posted: 4/4/2012 5:54:44 PM
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#19
Posted: 4/6/2012 8:43:42 PM

is that 22 wins vs 19 losses/

 
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#20
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:22:02 PM
Yes.
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#21
Posted: 4/8/2012 1:52:42 AM
Likely play on Seattle vs. Texas on Monday. If they are +150 or more we'll take on the series.
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#22
Posted: 4/8/2012 5:35:45 PM
Just ran back tests further and this is +35.06 Units since 2004. 
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#23
Posted: 4/8/2012 5:45:41 PM
I'm not sure that I'm seeing any value since your back testing results. In your first post it says in 2011 it won 18.25 units. And the last post says it has won 35 units since 2004.  This means you have won under 17 units in a 7 year period from 2004 thru 2010 which is an average just over 2 units a year.
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#24
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:28:07 PM
Sea a play currently +200 Mia can be a play if they make it to +150
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Luckydan
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#25
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:39:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stake24:

Sea a play currently +200 Mia can be a play if they make it to +150


Careful with the NL. Has not done well in this system.

Good Luck.
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