Messages

Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB A system to consider Part I of 4
TheBuddah
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TheBuddah
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 877
Location: Virginia
#1
Posted: 3/19/2012 11:33:39 PM

Baseball believe it or not is the best sport to bet on(my opinion) - if you know what your doing and are willing to put the time in.

Several things you must recognize:

1. All teams win roughly 60 games a year or very close to it.  That's been pretty consistent throughout history (yes there are exceptions -houston last year and pittsburgh the year before won 57 or 53.)  

2. Recognize it's a season of 2 halves (before the trade deadline and after it)

3. Pitchers are human - they avg 32/33 starts - how many go 32-0 - none (okay denny maclane).

4. I read a book on sportsbetting by one of the managers of one of the  casino's - he said 95% of the opening lines on baseball are based on the starting pitcher - he said the books one year dropped that to 90% and they got killed. To me this means study pitchers only - don't waste your time worrying about hitting.

5. Also, recognize the oddsmakers are very smart people - why, because they have the time, money, data, etc. you and i alone don't have. Instead of trying to come up with what you believe is best value and the true line on a game - accept they are smart people and the line they come up with takes into consideration a multitude of factors, including location, strikeouts, men on base, left vs right etc. The opening line is key - I go to www.donbest.com to get the opening line. 

  

Part to coming up.

quote
Randisist
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Randisist
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 3155
Location: Texas
#2
Posted: 3/20/2012 8:22:36 AM
Why not
quote
Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Air1
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 907
Location: United States
#3
Posted: 3/20/2012 1:20:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Randisist:

Why not


L
quote
TheBuddah
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TheBuddah
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 877
Location: Virginia
#4
Posted: 3/23/2013 11:47:43 AM
Speedmon - Here's Part 1
quote
Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.