Posted: 3/19/2012 11:33:39 PM
Baseball believe it or not is the best sport to bet on(my opinion) - if you know what your doing and are willing to put the time in.
Several things you must recognize:
1. All teams win roughly 60 games a year or very close to it. That's been pretty consistent throughout history (yes there are exceptions -houston last year and pittsburgh the year before won 57 or 53.)
2. Recognize it's a season of 2 halves (before the trade deadline and after it)
3. Pitchers are human - they avg 32/33 starts - how many go 32-0 - none (okay denny maclane).
4. I read a book on sportsbetting by one of the managers of one of the casino's - he said 95% of the opening lines on baseball are based on the starting pitcher - he said the books one year dropped that to 90% and they got killed. To me this means study pitchers only - don't waste your time worrying about hitting.
5. Also, recognize the oddsmakers are very smart people - why, because they have the time, money, data, etc. you and i alone don't have. Instead of trying to come up with what you believe is best value and the true line on a game - accept they are smart people and the line they come up with takes into consideration a multitude of factors, including location, strikeouts, men on base, left vs right etc. The opening line is key - I go to www.donbest.com to get the opening line.
Part to coming up.