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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Im tired of POSERS!!
bettor2win
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#26
Posted: 3/14/2012 7:49:54 PM
O/U idk. Ive tried one in the past. Didnt do great. That was one of those 6 game chasers though. Could work if you study it tho.
BTW, I didnt mean to call out JV like that. I just see JV a lot and figure if she has so many ideas why not really help by adding more. It wasnt even JVs post that irritated me. Anyway, Im guna take a look at ciscos and see what he did last year. May just follow him. IDK.
Ok, since I havent been on covers/sportsbook in a while, time to stop complaining for me and get down to the real ballistics.
Lets end this thread now and get going on trying to win some games. Btw, im not betting on march madness because every year my brackets are ripped apart by day one.
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#27
Posted: 3/14/2012 8:02:34 PM
I am just finished looking at the system ritzz posts for mlb  -150  and higher system betting it on the oppisit  team as an underdog.. after coming up with three filters I got over 26 losses a year down to only 1 or 2 losses a year. I have know idea how many wins this leaves left on underdogs after all the filters are in place. here's my idea.   in 2011   there were 25 losses  and 115 wins.


-150 home dog system

the rules and filters for my -150 dog system are

look for a 3 game series at home that starts with -150 to -195

don't bet the  the series  if the series before has 3 losses or 3 wins

don't bet the series if the team your playing against has 3 losses or 3 wins

don't bet the series if the ten previous games on either the road game or home game have less than 4 wins in 10  previous games
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#28
Posted: 3/14/2012 8:03:31 PM
I went back 3 years with my filters.
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#29
Posted: 3/14/2012 8:05:42 PM
I forgot too say your betting against the home team
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#30
Posted: 3/14/2012 8:25:58 PM
When you say "don't bet the  the series  if the series before has 3 losses or 3 wins" do you mean the 3 previous games between the two or the three previous games they played vs. whomever it may have been?

Also going back 3 seasons with your filter how many losses did you find?

Just guessing here, but you should be able to get 50-75 plays a season with the filters  if you only get 1 or 2 losses a season then it could be worthwhile if its all dog ml.
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#31
Posted: 3/14/2012 8:44:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:

When you say "don't bet the  the series  if the series before has 3 losses or 3 wins" do you mean the 3 previous games between the two or the three previous games they played vs. whomever it may have been?

Also going back 3 seasons with your filter how many losses did you find?

Just guessing here, but you should be able to get 50-75 plays a season with the filters  if you only get 1 or 2 losses a season then it could be worthwhile if its all dog ml.


I found a total of 5 losses in 3 years. 

previous series on the home or road game before the game being played.  
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#32
Posted: 3/14/2012 9:11:47 PM
jv i sent a friend request.
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bettor2win
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#33
Posted: 3/14/2012 9:35:29 PM
JV, could you start a thread this year? Or is that too much time?
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#34
Posted: 3/14/2012 10:12:53 PM
I can do a thread no problem.

this was my first attempt at capping a underdog system.  I have capped a few other systems not underdog and not nearly as few losses.

I'm really curious to find out how many games there are that can be played after the filters.
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bettor2win
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#35
Posted: 3/14/2012 11:57:16 PM
Amen! When u start it just make sure u explain the rules and be sure to dumb it down for us handicaps,,,,err,,,, handicappers. That way if you are not avail. a day or two we can pick it up. I like my system but favs are hard to swallow at times.
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HockeyTeeth
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#36
Posted: 3/15/2012 5:51:08 AM

Bettor2win.Would this sort of tracking be useful. I posted this earlier this yr. Might come in handy if a group used MLB reg season contest picks. I don't bet baseball, burned out on it after sweet run in roto ball yrs ago. If you get enough peep to  track the different parameters nice little database moving forward. I'll track anything you want with my picks. Get a few others to do same. 


I've been reading a lot of posts recently regarding system plays primarily as they relate to totals betting. More often than not the poster indicates that the data is a work in progress. "Back tested for this season only" or doesn't factor in "this or that". This is usually followed up with an open request  for a link to a site that may have the relevant data. 

 
I was thinking that the covers contest collects data on each members plays and if a group of players used that data collectively they could have a huge database of back tested results.  

For example if you wanted to know the O/U results over the past three seasons for "X", lets say games involving early starts or two teams with above avg shooting percentage, or games involving two goalies with widely disparaging  save %, couldn't this be easily tracked using the contest data? Rather than jumping all over the "www" to find this info?

If a group of players set the parameters and assigned each player specific criteria to track using the league contest picks, you would have a valuable cache of info at your disposal. 

Your chances of winning the contest would be out the window but your chances of winning actual cash would increase. I've noticed some of the serious players don't even bother with the contest side of things, so wouldn't matter either way. 

I've been on this site for a few yrs now and wish I had used the contests for tracking something beside my betting pattern. It is useful in that regard, but could be used more effectively in a crowd sourcing scenario. (The contest doesn't reflect my actual wagers, but does reflect my tendencies re: dogs, favs, home, road and so on.) 

BOL either way


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#37
Posted: 3/15/2012 4:48:28 PM

JV, question about you underdog system.  Do we need to consider what the lines are going to be for games 2 and 3 before we make the bet on game 1.  Here's an example.

Seattle at Texas.  Game 1  Texas -175

                           Game 2 Seattle -135  (Hernandez is pitching)

                           Game 3 Texas -195

Would this series be a chase, playing on Seattle just because Texas is favored by more than -150 and less then -195 in the first game?

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#38
Posted: 3/15/2012 7:18:08 PM
don't run into very many series like that with the filters where seattle underdog one day and favored the next day.  I think that if that happened I would drop series.
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bettor2win
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#39
Posted: 3/15/2012 8:29:08 PM
HOCKEYTEETH (LOL NAME): Ive gathered info before from others but it doesnt seem to work great. When we are at our jobs it works well because we get paid AND if we dont give those results OR if we do and they are incorrect we get written up or just plain fired. We could try it but if there is one or two weak links in the chain it would leave us with nothing. So, how many people would we need to gather info? Im not sure exactly what you meant about the contest data??? How would we track it exactly? I dont do the contests here but I WOULD totally if it meant finding data. I quit doing contests here after I won my hat for a 10game win streak lol.
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HockeyTeeth
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#40
Posted: 3/15/2012 11:26:40 PM
Nice on the hat. HOCKEYTEETH because all I know is betting hockey ML/PL, plus lost a couple when I was younger. 

I meant each person tracking one specific parameter, so number of people depends on parameters being tracked. Would be simple late in season to see record of say home team fave on first of 3 gm homestand, or Home team Fave following loss, (just pulling examples out of my behind here) if those are the only selections that person made on Covers MLB contest all year. The info would be available for all to view under his/her completed picks for that sport. You prob track this stuff already, but in a broader sense a  large amount of data would be at your disposal tracking as much as you want. W/L record of Starting pitchers with size 12 shoes pitching night games....it is endless the stuff that could be tracked.

The data W/L +/- units are totaled for you by Covers, just have to marry all the results or view as needed. You can view anyone's record by accessing their contest results. (Did I mention I sometimes ramble, prob post concussion symptoms they didn't track that stuff in my day).
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bettor2win
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#41
Posted: 3/16/2012 12:12:11 AM
Ramble? IDK. But size 12 shoes caught my attn. Lol. Start a thread, collect data and we in buzinezz. Just tell is what u need bromister.
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#42
Posted: 3/20/2012 6:55:25 PM
I'm willing to do the backtesting on a system.
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deland
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#43
Posted: 3/26/2012 6:52:55 AM
#33 bettor2win 3/14/12 10:35 PM

JV, do you use
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deland
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#44
Posted: 3/26/2012 6:58:06 AM
Jv, do you use this filter for the home or away team?
don't bet the series if the ten previous games on either the road game or home game have less than 4 wins in 10  previous games
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#45
Posted: 3/26/2012 9:25:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by deland:

Jv, do you use this filter for the home or away team?
don't bet the series if the ten previous games on either the road game or home game have less than 4 wins in 10  previous games


it's on home and away but I mixed the words up it should say 4 wins or less.   so look at the last ten games at home if there's 4 wins or less it's no play. same thing on the road. example.

if there's 6 wins at home and 4 wins on road no play

if there's 4  wins on at home 5 wins on road no play
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#46
Posted: 3/26/2012 10:45:02 AM
I wanted to get some thoughts on a chase system I used 2 years ago, and a little bit last season.  It seems like some of you may have enough data, that you could back-test it with very little effort.  I did that last year, but it was very time consuming.

In 2010 I tried an underdog chase system.  I eliminated the top teams based on projections, WS future odds, and season win totals.  For argument sakes, let's say I eliminated Boston and NY in the AL and Philly and St. Louis in the NL.  I also eliminated the worst teams in each league, example the Pirates.  I didn't use 2 game series or 4 game series, because a 4 game chase seemed too much.

I would end up with 5-7 series 2 times a week to analyze.  That was the extent of my filtering, and likely the reason for it's failure in 2011.  If a team was going to be an underdog in 2 of the 3 games, I played them.

A game, risking 1 unit
B game, risking loss plus original amount to win
C game, risking loss plus original amount to win.

In 2010, it was very profitable in April, May, and June.  I went to Vegas for a couple of weeks in July around the all-star break.  Once I returned, I was burnt out and started prep for football.

In 2011, there were a couple of C losses in the 2nd or 3rd week of the season.  Poor bankroll management caused me to drop it, because my bankroll could no longer handle it.  I would have had to drop way down or start being more selective in my series choices.

I would just like to hear any feedback on where I may have went wrong, filters I might should have included, or problems with my thinking.  The system tends to give a bunch of road dogs who are +110 to +150.
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#47
Posted: 3/26/2012 11:08:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dawgfan1980:

I wanted to get some thoughts on a chase system I used 2 years ago, and a little bit last season.  It seems like some of you may have enough data, that you could back-test it with very little effort.  I did that last year, but it was very time consuming.

In 2010 I tried an underdog chase system.  I eliminated the top teams based on projections, WS future odds, and season win totals.  For argument sakes, let's say I eliminated Boston and NY in the AL and Philly and St. Louis in the NL.  I also eliminated the worst teams in each league, example the Pirates.  I didn't use 2 game series or 4 game series, because a 4 game chase seemed too much.

I would end up with 5-7 series 2 times a week to analyze.  That was the extent of my filtering, and likely the reason for it's failure in 2011.  If a team was going to be an underdog in 2 of the 3 games, I played them.

A game, risking 1 unit
B game, risking loss plus original amount to win
C game, risking loss plus original amount to win.

In 2010, it was very profitable in April, May, and June.  I went to Vegas for a couple of weeks in July around the all-star break.  Once I returned, I was burnt out and started prep for football.

In 2011, there were a couple of C losses in the 2nd or 3rd week of the season.  Poor bankroll management caused me to drop it, because my bankroll could no longer handle it.  I would have had to drop way down or start being more selective in my series choices.

I would just like to hear any feedback on where I may have went wrong, filters I might should have included, or problems with my thinking.  The system tends to give a bunch of road dogs who are +110 to +150.



top teams get beat all the time in mlb so it doesn't make sense too eliminate them.
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#48
Posted: 3/26/2012 11:29:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jv040:




top teams get beat all the time in mlb so it doesn't make sense too eliminate them.

Very true, and even the worst teams win.  I just looked at as a way to reduce risk.  Instead of having 12 series going 2 times a week, I tried to get something more manageable.  

In the little back-testing that I did, you may have 6 series all year where one of the better teams is going to be an underdog in 2 of the 3 games.  Instead of trying to pick up 6 units, where one sweep could wipe out all of the profit, I chose to eliminate them from consideration on either side.  On the other side, there were a couple of bad teams that were swept quite often.

My belief is that I wasn't taking my rules for selecting a team quite far enough.  Maybe not considering enough historical match-up data, considering pitching match-ups, etc.  Just blindly chasing teams were not great or lousy.
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#49
Posted: 3/27/2012 12:30:04 AM
thanks jv040
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#50
Posted: 3/29/2012 1:43:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bettor2win:

We all just want to win at betting.  But some are coming here, like jv040,and posing as a legit person (woman) and acting innocent.  It's garbage.  A few people are trying like smitler, realitycheck, therizz and myself to help each other.  There aren't no "SYSTEMS" HERE except the ones I just mentioned.  Yet, it's filled with bull manure.  Covers, in my opinion is a bunch of garbage. They care about money.  I'm sure I will be banned tomorrow. I don't care though.  They let everyone post what they want WHERE they want. 

Covers, get rid of the posers and delete those posts! I had the number one blog post last baseball season. I didn't have 50 people a day telling me goodluck, you know why? Because I didn't need it. I have a system. Not a system? Delete it.

Losers. You're asking questions, like jv040 who is a website promoter, read the blog and respond. You people make me sick!!! 

Get out of here! People, please just put up a post, however small when you go to a blog.  Let's eliminate losers like jv040. She is NOT a she. She's a man dude.

Hey there cowboy, don't be losing your cool before the season even starts. Just play your game and forget the rest. I've learned one thing in my time here on covers. Hacks come and go, but true cappers continue to post their plays and strategies right here for everyone to see for FREE. The goal is and always has been to make money. Don't get baited or bait anyone else into arguments. We had a good group of guys last year working the system last year and it was fun. RIGHT? Your system has just drawn more attention this year which means your gonna have more good guys joining in and some dipshits, just ignore them. If you don't feed the machine it will turn off.

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