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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: My Outlook on Sports Betting
smartbets send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas |
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#1
Posted: 1/26/2012 3:45:16 PM
For those who care, I had a slight lean on the clipps, but I don't really see an edge betting this line. Edge is something I plan on talking about later on in this thread.

First of all I just wanna say what I am about to talk about is just my opinion, my stance and how I approach sports betting. My goal is to share some insight that could help anyone beat the books.

I am sure a lot of people will disagree with me, some will agree, and I am fine with that.

Also one thing that has been on my mind and I want to clarify is I have never had a desire to go tout. I have been asked this a lot, and the answer is no. I'm not in the biz of scamming people and I thought it was evident when I disclosed what I thought to be concrete info on teams coming off road trips from my thread a couple days ago. I believe if you are good enough to beat the books yourself, there is no reason to charge other people for picks.
I will post my picks here until covers doesn't want me here anymore.

1. I look at this as an investment.
NYSE or LVSC, they are the same thing to me. Sure betting tonight's game is a short term investment, but over a season is the long term. Before a season starts deposit your initial investment, ie bankroll. $500, 1k, 5k, 20k...whatever if it that is your investment. My goal is to double my investment, yours may or may not be different and that is ok.

2. Set a goal. So many bettors just load the account and bet all the way through the end of the finals, super bowl, title game etc. IMO, this is not the way to go about it. We all experience highs and lows during a season. I remember my first season betting college basketball. I won 11 in a row, followed by losing 12 in a row. My point is simple, set a goal and when you reach it stop, then reevaluate if you want to keep going or call it a season.

3. Market Perception. This is huge, imo. This is where vegas sets the line. Sports insights, scoredandodds, sportsbook spy etc....all these memberships that tell you the % of bets, it's all garbage. Most of it are just online polls. You don't need any of this stuff to determine perception. Understanding why a line is where it is, is what you need to be focusing on.

This is where I tie into determining your edge. There is a difference between betting a team because you think they will cover it and finding an edge.

Remember my thread on teams coming off road trips? Where I took a 52% edge from teams coming off a trip on their first game home, and then showed you a 64% edge on the 2nd game. That is huge. This is what you are trying to do. Whether it is a situation or a bad line.

Take last night's Minnesota +6 bet. We had a huge edge just from the schedule spot. We also had another situation that I use often. When star players get injured, the first game(s) following the injury you typically get a better performance from the rest of the team, especially the bench. But after a couple games, the absence of that player will start to show. You had a Drik-less Dallas getting a win in New Orleans, 1 pt cover over Phx, and the offense struggled vs Minnesota getting what, 85 points? It was bound to happen.

Also take into the fact that the Wolves just lost at home to Houston as a 2.5 pt fav, I determined my edge of a SU win to be 75%, so catching points was the icing on the cake.

4. # of Bets. This is where I differ from the norm. So many people bet 4-5 games a night, 35 bets a week. Add in the -110 they are paying and that is why books seem to always win. Remember books can't make you place a bet, so you have the control of when to put your roll into action.

I am going to assume that most people here bet a nickel or less per game. Maybe I am off on that assumption, who knows. But I look at it like this. When we bet, it is an investment to make a profit. My goal is to consistently grow the roll, so it's not about action, it's about net profit.

I get asked all the time, if I had one wish what would it be. Simple. Tomorrow's Newspaper. Let's be real. All you need is 1 play a week. Bet a nickel a play and you're sitting at 2k profit in a month. That's some nice pocket change, imo. Some weeks will present 2-3 bets thats yield a high edge, it does happen. I've had as many as 5 bets in a week and have gone as long as 3 weeks without making a bet.

Take a look at an avg NFL season, I would bet based on what I read online that 5-7 bets in a Sunday-Monday would be the average. Considering the juice you are going to need to win 5 out of 7 to make any substantial profit. Yet I have always found my best results where finding those 1-2 plays where there is an overreaction to a line from the prior weeks result. Sure we have those 5-1, 6-0 weeks that are great, but 2-4, 1-5, those days are bankroll busters. I'd rather play 1-2 games a week, maybe 3 if the value presents itself.

I think I already talked about it in another thread, but my first college football season I made 28 bets, it almost sounds funny, but I won 21 of those bets, betting $100 a game...I made some nice profit for a starting recreational bettor.

5. Determining your edge. It can be tricky, but most of the time its instinctive. Take the Portland/Memphis game. Port -6....I knew given the situation that Memphis was in going to the rose garden, they weren't going to win the game, and teams often get run out of the rose garden. To me there was simply no edge taking Memphis. An edge to me would be catching points in a game where I believe them to have a shot at winning. Memphis is a team who has been on a run and they will be dropping very soon, so look to fade them.

6. How aggressive to bet. When I limit my plays and decided not to be an action junkie, but a sports investor, i was able to make more per season and the % of my roll was a bit more.

You will hear by a lot of bettors 1-2% of your roll per play, nothing wrong with it, but I tend to be a bit more aggressive. 3-5% is generally what I bet per unit. This season for NBA, I set it at 2.5%.

I am sure this is more to add to this, but these are just some of the topics that tend to run through my head and form my style.

This is just my way, there are several to beat the books, this is just how I do it. Hopefully this thread will stay constructive in the attempt to help others do the same.


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#2
Posted: 1/26/2012 3:53:31 PM
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#3
Posted: 1/26/2012 3:53:58 PM
#4 is EXTREMLY important and people don't realise it. 
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#4
Posted: 1/26/2012 3:55:27 PM
Appreciate the insight
Posted using a mobile device.
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#5
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:00:04 PM
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#6
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:00:06 PM
love the write up sir 
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#7
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:02:04 PM
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#8
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:06:15 PM

Thank you for taking your time to share your thoughts!

As a new capper like myself on covers.. your info will be much appreciated!

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#9
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:07:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoFumbles:

#4 is EXTREMLY important and people don't realise it. 


The number of bets is not important.  What is important is making good bets.  If there are 40 good bets on a weekend of college and NFL football, then make 40 bets.  If there is only 1, make 1 bet.  The juice is the same on 40 bets in weekend as it is on 40 bets over 2 months.
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#10
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:12:17 PM
Great stuff smartbets.  I myself have a problem with #4, but I also have a problem with confidence in picking my  "absolute best play for that day." This is literally only my 2nd season doing this, so...I'm obviously still learning.
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#11
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:14:43 PM
how large is your bankroll bro
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#12
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:16:56 PM
Thank you master for the fruit of knowlegde.
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#13
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:20:43 PM
Thanks Bets. Much appreciated.

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#14
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:22:20 PM

Remember my thread on teams coming off road trips? Where I took a 52% edge from teams coming off a trip on their first game home, and then showed you a 64% edge on the 2nd game. That is huge. This is what you are trying to do. Whether it is a situation or a bad line.

SB,

got any more gems like that  great stuff  

keep it up

anna31204

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#15
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:23:48 PM
Love the write up smarts very good info to have. I added you as a friend hope you accept i have a few questions for you if you have time. Thanks in advance also you and 44dimes are the top two cappers on the nba forums.
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#16
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:30:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by coolfool:

how large is your bankroll bro
NBA roll is 20k
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#17
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:31:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LuckySeven77:

Love the write up smarts very good info to have. I added you as a friend hope you accept i have a few questions for you if you have time. Thanks in advance also you and 44dimes are the top two cappers on the nba forums.
accepted
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#18
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:33:09 PM
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#19
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:39:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:



The number of bets is not important.  What is important is making good bets.  If there are 40 good bets on a weekend of college and NFL football, then make 40 bets.  If there is only 1, make 1 bet.  The juice is the same on 40 bets in weekend as it is on 40 bets over 2 months.
different styles of betting. I have found it to be more profitable to be selective. Others might be able to make 200 bets a season hitting @55%. I'm just offering my own insight to the board in an attempt to help....


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#20
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:43:43 PM

Thanks for taking the time for the write ups!
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#21
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:43:44 PM
Nice post:  These type of threads are few and far between on Covers.

A few questions:

1.  The great debate about limiting plays. Don't you feel you leave lots of value off the table?  There are more opportunities in a week than just 1-3 value plays?  Is that do to time constraints not being able to research enough plays to find value?  Or is just a comfort thing to limit plays?

2.  You say that is $2000 in your pocket.  That is assuming you go 4-0. That is a big assumption because over the long haul of a season it is tough to hit over 56% regardless of your plays.  Yes, you can go 21-7 in 1 season, but you could go 10-23 the next year. 


Everyone has a different style to succeed.  There isn't just 1 style to succeed at this.  Would you agree with that? 
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#22
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:47:25 PM
Why the assumption that Memphis will fade?  Marcel middle of second tier centers.  Lionel seems to be a above average coach.  Players mostly know each other and have bought into the system.  Team made it to the playoffs last year and is very hungry to return.  Early season struggles mostly due to adjustment to life without Randolph.
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#23
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:51:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:

Nice post:  These type of threads are few and far between on Covers.

A few questions:

1.  The great debate about limiting plays. Don't you feel you leave lots of value off the table?  There are more opportunities in a week than just 1-3 value plays?  Is that do to time constraints not being able to research enough plays to find value?  Or is just a comfort thing to limit plays?

2.  You say that is $2000 in your pocket.  That is assuming you go 4-0. That is a big assumption because over the long haul of a season it is tough to hit over 56% regardless of your plays.  Yes, you can go 21-7 in 1 season, but you could go 10-23 the next year. 


Everyone has a different style to succeed.  There isn't just 1 style to succeed at this.  Would you agree with that? 

1.Sure there might be more value on the table. It varies. If there is value, then I bet it. 3 plays a week is not set in stone, I'm just giving an example. There are no time contraints, I'm here to make money.

2. You won't always hit your best bets, against I am just using numbers to state my case. You could go 10-23 next season, sure. You will find that the more seasoned bettors just spot value. It becomes an instinct. Some of it is difficult to put into words.

I do agree and have stated that this is how I do it. Lot of people will disagree with me and that is fine, I stated that in the opening paragraph. Many ways to rome, this is mine.
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#24
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:52:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tuck321:

Why the assumption that Memphis will fade?  Marcel middle of second tier centers.  Lionel seems to be a above average coach.  Players mostly know each other and have bought into the system.  Team made it to the playoffs last year and is very hungry to return.  Early season struggles mostly due to adjustment to life without Randolph.
Capping intuition. Just watch.
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#25
Posted: 1/26/2012 4:53:09 PM
Smart Bets, I sent you a friend request, hope you can accept it, wanted to ask you a question.
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