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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA teams with win percent below 425 fade |
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Knoxpoker |
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#51 Posted: 1/25/2012 5:38:43 PM SYSTEM PLAYS 1/25/12
OKC -12.5 |
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Knoxpoker |
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#52 Posted: 1/25/2012 11:11:01 PM New Orleans - 12.5  - 3 units
SYSTEM RESULTS
A 7-2
B 1-1 + 4 UNITS |
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glefkb01 |
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#53 Posted: 1/26/2012 6:32:45 AM what is the record if we fade N.O. into a 3rd game?
that would be 5 in a row for the ATS. |
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Air1 |
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#54 Posted: 1/26/2012 6:39:34 AM
Fading New Orleans yields -3.4 units. Winning 8 units so far makes the system +4.6 total.
BTW are we going to restart fading New Orleans? Did you do that last year Knox? If you did not & I am reading post #5 correctly, your system would have been +8 more units!!
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#55 Posted: 1/26/2012 7:13:59 AM
Record would be
A bet 33 out of 41
B bet 4 out of 8
C bet 4 out of 4
Did you mean to say that there were 8 loses for the system last year - meaning 8 teams went and won 5 or 6 games in a row ATS last season?
Record for A+B bets (games 3/4) would be 54-8 +27 Units
Record for C+D bets (games 5/6) would be 8-0 +8 Units.
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Air1 |
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#56 Posted: 1/26/2012 7:19:39 AM
Record would be
A bet 37 out of 45 +27.2 units
B bet 4 out of 8 -1.2 units
C bet 4 out of 4 +4 units
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BigTenWatto |
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#57 Posted: 1/26/2012 7:21:21 AM
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Knoxpoker |
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#58 Posted: 1/26/2012 7:11:40 PM Yes guys you can fade till the end of time .. But I bet a 2 game chase . I dont like putting 6 times my normal bet to win one .. If you follow it they way it started . chase games 3 and 4 you will be up units without having the extra risk of a 4 or 5 game chase .. Sometimes what I do is take those teams that are on game 4 or 5 and throw a small parlay play .. I dont do that often .. I keep it simple 2 wins ATS fade for 2 games .. I will make up those 3 units lost by by the end of next week ... If not earlier
No plays tonight |
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#59 Posted: 1/26/2012 7:15:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:
Just a thought for accuracy - Shouldnt we count loses as -3.4 units (-110 + -231=~340)
Fading New Orleans yields -3.4 units. Winning 8 units so far makes the system +4.6 total.
BTW are we going to restart fading New Orleans? Did you do that last year Knox? If you did not & I am reading post #5 correctly, your system would have been +8 more units!!
You know you brought up a great point you CAN start a nother 2 game chase from game 4 and 5 .. i might do that as well .. If I lost 3 units .. and then start another 2 game chase I can still make one unit back on that team ... I am going to start doing that ...
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Knoxpoker |
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#60 Posted: 1/26/2012 7:16:44 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:
After rereading post #5 I am confused. The A bet for this system is game #3, B bet is game #4. Knox, you mention that 8 teams went & won 4 or 5 games in a row ATS. The record for the B bet would then be 4-4 and the record for the C bet would be 4-0. I dont even see a reason why we should play the B bet if that is the case.
Record would be
A bet 33 out of 41
B bet 4 out of 8
Yes eight times the system had losses last yr ..
C bet 4 out of 4
Did you mean to say that there were 8 loses for the system last year - meaning 8 teams went and won 5 or 6 games in a row ATS last season?
Record for A+B bets (games 3/4) would be 54-8 +27 Units
Record for C+D bets (games 5/6) would be 8-0 +8 Units.
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#61 Posted: 1/26/2012 7:19:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:
I backtested last yr . There were 8 streaks of 4 ats and 5 ats for teams below 425 win pct.
For the 2010 NBA season
Toronto had 4 wins ATS in a row
Milwaukee had one 4 win ATS in a row and a 5 streak ATS in a row
Detroit had one 5 Streak win ATS
Charlotte had one 5 streak win ATS
Minnesota had one 5 ATS win streak
Clippers had one 4 game ATS streak
Sacramento had one 4 game ATS streak
The rest were 2 and 3 game streaks ..
There were 4 loses last yr ..sorry i posted the wrong info .. |
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#62 Posted: 1/26/2012 7:21:29 PM |
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#63 Posted: 1/26/2012 9:41:52 PM
Orlando going against New Orleans.
Denver against Toronto
The last one I am confused on. Cleveland has a winning percentage of only .412 and have won two games in a row ATS. They are facing New Jersey but Jersey's win percentage is only .316. So do you still play a team that is as bad as NJ is?
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#64 Posted: 1/26/2012 10:21:55 PM |
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glefkb01 |
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#65 Posted: 1/27/2012 6:24:12 AM Teams under .425 (As of Jan 27)
Teams ATS Current ATS Streak
- NY Knicks (ATS 4-14) Lost 1
- NJ Nets (ATS 9-10) Won 1
- Toronto (ATS 10-9) Won 2 *****
- Milwaukee (ATS 7-10) Won 1
- Cleveland (ATS 10-7) Won 2 *****
- Detroit (ATS 6-13) Won 1
- Washington(ATS 6-12) Won 1
- Charlotte (ATS 7-12) Lost 3
- Phoenix (ATS 7-10) Lost 2
- G.S. (ATS 8-9) won 1
- Sacremento (ATS 6-13) lost 3
- New Orleans (ATS 9-9) Won 4*****
TODAYS GAME
TOR at DEN -11.5 (A)
NJ +3 at CLE (A)
Knox...is there any filters when 2 teams under .425 play each other and one team qualifies i.e. NJ at CLE tonight?
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Knoxpoker |
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#66 Posted: 1/27/2012 5:31:23 PM There are no filters . Just grab both of them and play it ..
Tonights plays
DENVER -11.5
NJ + 3
ORLANDO - 4
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glefkb01 |
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#67 Posted: 1/27/2012 8:49:57 PM |
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#68 Posted: 1/27/2012 10:00:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:
Why Orlando... we stopped chasing N.O. ???
I think he said he stops the financial chase with a 3 unit loss but that doesn't mean he stops going against a certain team if the system calls for it.
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#69 Posted: 1/27/2012 10:38:15 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:
Why Orlando... we stopped chasing N.O. ???
Its up to you how long pyou want to chase.. I started a new 2 game chase on New Orleans .. I am done with them I lost 4 units on them and I will let them run their current streak ,,, Hopefully Denver can get the cover to make us 2-1 on the night ,,, |
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#70 Posted: 1/27/2012 11:31:25 PM Denver -12.5  SYSTEM RESULTS + 5 UNITS
NJ + 3 (A) 9-3
Orlando - 4 (B) 1-1 |
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Riceboi |
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#71 Posted: 1/28/2012 12:01:10 AM
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#72 Posted: 1/28/2012 1:30:30 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
have you back tested any other seasons besides last year? looks like a decent system to pickup some units.
I have looked at alot of other systems . Most of them are 6 game chases. I dont see risking all of those units to win one ... I feel comfortable fading the shitiest teams in the NBA ,, If you noticed the the 4 loses have been within no more than 3 points .. This will stand the test of time.. 3 months from now we will be talking about how we arre going to play it next yr ,, We will be up around 20 units or so.... |
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#73 Posted: 1/28/2012 1:34:15 AM Oh garbage ... sorry Riceboi I thought your post said " have you backtested any other systems"
Yes 2009-2010 would have won around 23 units... |
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#74 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:06:23 AM
2009-2010 - Wash + NJ won 6 in a row ATS, LAC + Min won 7 in a row ATS, Ind won 8 in a row ATS!!!
2008-2009 - Tor + Min won 6 in a row ATS, Mem + NY win 7 in a row ATS
Not going to back Test any further. Just seeing if last season is the norm. It is not. Expect about 3 occasions where these crappy teams will win about 6 games in a row ATS.
Restarting a chase after a lose seems like a good idea, but we should do a little more back testing to make sure its still a safe bet.
Last season this system went something like 44 wins and 8 loses if ONLY fading games 3 & 4 ATS.
If someone wants to start go ahead. I will try the 08-09 & 09-10 seasons during next week. Working over the weekend.
http://www.nba.com/standings/2008/team_record_comparison/conferenceNew_Std_Cnf.html
http://www.nba.com/standings/2009/team_record_comparison/conferenceNew_Std_Cnf.html
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#75 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:17:37 AM Teams under .425 (As of Jan 28)
Teams ATS Current ATS Streak
- NY Knicks (ATS 5-14) Won 1
- NJ Nets (ATS 10-10) Won 2 ****
- Toronto (ATS 10-10) lost 1
- Milwaukee (ATS 8-10) Won 2****
- Cleveland (ATS 10-8) lost 1
- Detroit (ATS 6-13-1) Won 1 and pushed
- Washington(ATS 6-13) lost 1
- Charlotte (ATS 7-13) Lost 4
- Phoenix (ATS 7-11) Lost 3
- G.S. (ATS 8-10) lost1
- Sacremento (ATS 6-13) lost 3
- New Orleans (ATS 10-9) Won 5
TODAYS GAMES
LA Lakers -5 at Milwaukee
***What about the Pistons? they won a game and pushed last night, would you consider that a win? I would fade Detroit every game if it were up to me??? |
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