NBA teams with win percent below 425 fade

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA teams with win percent below 425 fade
Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/25/2012 5:38:43 PM

SYSTEM PLAYS  1/25/12

OKC -12.5

Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/25/2012 11:11:01 PM

New Orleans  - 12.5   -  3 units  

                           SYSTEM RESULTS  

                           A  7-2

                           B 1-1      + 4 UNITS

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 1/26/2012 6:32:45 AM

what is the record if we fade N.O. into a 3rd game?

that would be 5 in a row for the ATS.

Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 1/26/2012 6:39:34 AM
Just a thought for accuracy - Shouldnt we count loses as -3.4 units (-110 + -231=~340)
Fading New Orleans yields -3.4 units. Winning 8 units so far makes the system +4.6 total.

BTW are we going to restart fading New Orleans? Did you do that last year Knox? If you did not & I am reading post #5 correctly, your system would have been +8 more units!!
Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 1/26/2012 7:13:59 AM
After rereading post #5 I am confused. The A bet for this system is game #3, B bet is game #4. Knox, you mention that 8 teams went & won 4 or 5 games in a row ATS. The record for the B bet would then be 4-4 and the record for the C bet would be 4-0. I dont even see a reason why we should play the B bet if that is the case.
Record would be
A bet 33 out of 41
B bet 4 out of 8
C bet 4 out of 4
Did you mean to say that there were 8 loses for the system last year - meaning 8 teams went and won 5 or 6 games in a row ATS last season?
Record for A+B bets (games 3/4) would be 54-8 +27 Units
Record for C+D bets (games 5/6) would be 8-0  +8 Units.
Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 1/26/2012 7:19:39 AM
I can't edit. so.....
Record would be
A bet 37 out of 45  +27.2 units
B bet 4 out of 8   -1.2 units
C bet 4 out of 4  +4 units
BigTenWatto PM BigTenWatto
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Posted: 1/26/2012 7:21:21 AM
I think that is right Air. What I got from the system is that only 8 times last year did a losing team (less than .425 win %) win 6 games in a row against the spread. I will be fading NWO on Friday.
Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/26/2012 7:11:40 PM

Yes guys you can fade till the end of time .. But I bet a 2 game chase . I dont like putting  6 times my normal bet to win one .. If you follow it they way it started . chase games 3 and 4 you will be up units without having the extra risk of a 4 or 5 game chase .. Sometimes what I do is take those teams that are on game 4 or 5 and throw a small parlay play .. I dont do that often .. I keep it simple 2 wins ATS fade for 2 games .. I will make up those 3 units lost by  by the end of next week ... If not earlier   

No plays tonight

Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/26/2012 7:15:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

Just a thought for accuracy - Shouldnt we count loses as -3.4 units (-110 + -231=~340)
Fading New Orleans yields -3.4 units. Winning 8 units so far makes the system +4.6 total.

BTW are we going to restart fading New Orleans? Did you do that last year Knox? If you did not & I am reading post #5 correctly, your system would have been +8 more units!!

You know you brought up a great point you CAN start a nother 2 game chase from game 4 and 5 .. i might do that as well .. If I lost 3 units .. and then start another 2 game chase I can still make one unit back on that team ... I am going to start doing that ...

Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/26/2012 7:16:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

After rereading post #5 I am confused. The A bet for this system is game #3, B bet is game #4. Knox, you mention that 8 teams went & won 4 or 5 games in a row ATS. The record for the B bet would then be 4-4 and the record for the C bet would be 4-0. I dont even see a reason why we should play the B bet if that is the case.
Record would be
A bet 33 out of 41
B bet 4 out of 8

 

Yes eight times the system had losses last yr ..
C bet 4 out of 4
Did you mean to say that there were 8 loses for the system last year - meaning 8 teams went and won 5 or 6 games in a row ATS last season?
Record for A+B bets (games 3/4) would be 54-8 +27 Units
Record for C+D bets (games 5/6) would be 8-0  +8 Units.

Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/26/2012 7:19:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:

I backtested last yr . There were 8 streaks of 4 ats and 5 ats for teams below 425 win pct.

For the 2010 NBA season

Toronto had 4 wins ATS in a row

Milwaukee had one 4 win ATS in a row and a 5 streak ATS in a row

Detroit had one 5 Streak win  ATS

Charlotte had one 5 streak win  ATS

Minnesota had one 5 ATS win streak

Clippers had one 4 game ATS streak

Sacramento had one 4 game ATS streak

The rest were 2 and 3 game streaks ..

 

 

 

 

There were 4 loses last yr ..sorry i posted the wrong info ..

Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/26/2012 7:21:29 PM
this system is made to win about 20 units each yr .. thats what  I shoot for .. If you want more plays and risk making more units .. You can play these teams 350 win percent and below right after they win a game ATS .. If you back track this you can make 20 units if not more  a season ...
Handsdown PM Handsdown
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Posted: 1/26/2012 9:41:52 PM
For Friday. Jan 27th, there are technically 3 plays. 

Orlando going against New Orleans.

Denver against Toronto

The last one I am confused on.  Cleveland has a winning percentage of only .412 and have won two games in a row ATS.  They are facing New Jersey but Jersey's win percentage is only .316.  So do you still play a team that is as bad as NJ is?
Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/26/2012 10:21:55 PM
Yes take NJ +3  what I am going to do is just start a new 2 game chase on New Orleans ... and Fading Toronto ...
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 1/27/2012 6:24:12 AM

Teams under .425 (As of Jan 27)

           Teams         ATS          Current ATS Streak

  1. NY Knicks (ATS 4-14)      Lost 1
  2. NJ Nets     (ATS 9-10)      Won 1
  3. Toronto      (ATS 10-9)      Won 2 *****
  4. Milwaukee (ATS  7-10)     Won 1
  5. Cleveland   (ATS 10-7)      Won 2 *****
  6. Detroit       (ATS 6-13)      Won 1
  7. Washington(ATS 6-12)     Won 1
  8. Charlotte    (ATS 7-12)      Lost 3
  9. Phoenix     (ATS 7-10)      Lost 2
  10. G.S.          (ATS 8-9)        won 1
  11. Sacremento (ATS 6-13)    lost 3
  12. New Orleans (ATS 9-9)     Won 4*****

TODAYS GAME

TOR at DEN -11.5 (A)

NJ +3 at CLE (A)   

Knox...is there any filters when 2 teams under .425 play each other and one team qualifies i.e. NJ at CLE tonight?

 

 

Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/27/2012 5:31:23 PM

There are no filters . Just grab both of them and play it ..

Tonights plays  

DENVER -11.5

NJ + 3

ORLANDO - 4

 

 

 

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 1/27/2012 8:49:57 PM
Why Orlando...   we stopped chasing N.O.    ???
Handsdown PM Handsdown
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Posted: 1/27/2012 10:00:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Why Orlando...   we stopped chasing N.O.    ???


I think he said he stops the financial chase with a 3 unit loss but that doesn't mean he stops going against a certain team if the system calls for it.
Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/27/2012 10:38:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Why Orlando...   we stopped chasing N.O.    ???

 

Its up to you how long pyou want to chase.. I started a new 2 game chase on New Orleans .. I am done with them  I lost 4 units on them and I will let them run their current streak ,,, Hopefully  Denver can get the cover to make us 2-1 on the night ,,,

Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/27/2012 11:31:25 PM

Denver -12.5   SYSTEM RESULTS   + 5 UNITS  

NJ + 3                (A) 9-3

Orlando - 4          (B) 1-1 

Riceboi PM Riceboi
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Posted: 1/28/2012 12:01:10 AM
have you back tested any other seasons besides last year? looks like a decent system to pickup some units.
Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/28/2012 1:30:30 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

have you back tested any other seasons besides last year? looks like a decent system to pickup some units.

I have looked at alot of other systems . Most of them are 6  game chases. I dont see risking all of those units to win one ... I feel comfortable fading the shitiest teams in the NBA ,, If you noticed the the 4 loses  have been within no more than 3 points .. This will stand the test of time.. 3 months from now we will be talking about how we arre going to play it next yr ,, We will be up around 20 units or so....

Knoxpoker PM Knoxpoker
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Posted: 1/28/2012 1:34:15 AM

Oh garbage ... sorry Riceboi  I thought your post said " have you backtested any other systems" 

Yes 2009-2010   would have won around 23 units...

Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 1/28/2012 7:06:23 AM
just did somewhat of a back test. I could only go by end of season winning % and did not start ats wins til the 10th game. I found::
2009-2010 - Wash + NJ won 6 in a row ATS, LAC + Min won 7 in a row ATS, Ind won 8 in a row ATS!!!
2008-2009 - Tor + Min won 6 in a row ATS, Mem + NY win 7 in a row ATS

Not going to back Test any further. Just seeing if last season is the norm. It is not. Expect about 3 occasions where these crappy teams will win about 6 games in a row ATS.

Restarting a chase after a lose seems like a good idea, but we should do a little more back testing to make sure its still a safe bet.
Last season this system went something like 44 wins and 8 loses if ONLY fading games 3 & 4 ATS.
If someone wants to start go ahead. I will try the 08-09 & 09-10 seasons during next week. Working over the weekend.

http://www.nba.com/standings/2008/team_record_comparison/conferenceNew_Std_Cnf.html
http://www.nba.com/standings/2009/team_record_comparison/conferenceNew_Std_Cnf.html
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 1/28/2012 7:17:37 AM

Teams under .425 (As of Jan 28)

           Teams         ATS          Current ATS Streak

  1. NY Knicks (ATS 5-14)     Won 1
  2. NJ Nets     (ATS 10-10)   Won 2 ****
  3. Toronto      (ATS 10-10)   lost 1
  4. Milwaukee (ATS  8-10)    Won 2****
  5. Cleveland   (ATS 10-8)     lost 1
  6. Detroit       (ATS 6-13-1)  Won 1 and pushed
  7. Washington(ATS 6-13)     lost 1
  8. Charlotte    (ATS 7-13)     Lost 4
  9. Phoenix     (ATS 7-11)     Lost 3
  10. G.S.          (ATS 8-10)     lost1
  11. Sacremento (ATS 6-13)   lost 3
  12. New Orleans (ATS 10-9)  Won 5

TODAYS GAMES

LA Lakers -5 at Milwaukee

***What about the Pistons?    they won a game and pushed last night, would you consider that a win?   I would fade Detroit every game if it were up to me???

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