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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: BOWL SYSTEM RESULTS: 5-0, or 11-3, so far
gratefulbets
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#1
Posted: 12/31/2011 2:44:00 PM
My system has 2 categories of net value; the higher the value, the less plays are available, but higher winning %.
5-0***
11-3*
Here are my remaining plays:

TxAM *
Utah ***
Illinois*
Van***
Hou***
SC***
Fl*
Or*
Clem*
KsSt*
LSU***
quote
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#2
Posted: 12/31/2011 3:17:32 PM
ml or ats?  BOL 
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gratefulbets
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#3
Posted: 12/31/2011 3:18:00 PM
ATS
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glefkb01
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#4
Posted: 12/31/2011 7:45:33 PM
Tex AM another winner
Utah and Illinois winner winner too.... Thank Gawd you came along
The local is asking for a payout and I need to receive not give...


What is ur secret?

Vandy a 3 star loser. Rrrgh

Monday to tail u for sure
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#5
Posted: 12/31/2011 8:16:42 PM
Just top be clear, the 11-3 record includes the 5-0 record.
Without the 5-0 games, the 11-3 record is 6-3.
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#6
Posted: 12/31/2011 8:22:50 PM
total record is now 14-4

6-1***

8-3*
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#7
Posted: 1/1/2012 11:48:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

My system has 2 categories of net value; the higher the value, the less plays are available, but higher winning %.
5-0***
11-3*
Here are my remaining plays:

TxAM *
Utah ***
Illinois*
Van***
Hou***
SC***
Fl*
Or*
Clem*
KsSt*
LSU***

I'm making some significant changes to my remaining picks, due to a combination of one error with W.Va/Clem, and the updated Sagarin ratings.

Hou***
Mi St.*** add 
SC*** change to one star
Fl*
Or*
Clem* eliminate
W.Va*** add
KsSt*
LSU*** 

PLAYS:
Hou***
Mi St.***
SC*
Fl*
Or*
W.Va***
KsSt*
LSU***
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#8
Posted: 1/2/2012 8:58:15 AM

So Today there are 5!!!

HOU ***

MSU***

SC*

FLA *

OREGON *

I HOPE WE COME THRU... I REALLY DONT WANNA MEET THE LOCAL THIS WEEK!

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#9
Posted: 1/2/2012 9:20:39 PM
Nice! Hope u do well with WV and LSU.  On those as well.
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#10
Posted: 1/2/2012 9:59:49 PM
System working pretty well, so far.

Hou***     w

Mi St.***  w

SC*         w

Fl*           w

Or*          w

9-1 since posting...

23-4 total system sides
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#11
Posted: 1/2/2012 10:02:49 PM
More more more. Nice....I don't have to see my local this week!
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#12
Posted: 1/2/2012 10:25:50 PM
Quit while you're ahead...haha
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#13
Posted: 1/2/2012 10:46:08 PM
Your supposed to explain your system and how you get your picks.
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#14
Posted: 1/3/2012 1:35:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HECTAR:

Your supposed to explain your system and how you get your picks.

OK. I use Sagarin for their ratings, and I use Covers for the basic info, PF - PA. Home and Away values are important distinctions, and I filter those stats with each team's last 5 games stats.  I compare the value from each team and apply that net difference to the higher rated team.
I then compare that net value with the point spread. I take the side, if any, that has at least 3 points more value than team's net value. 
For instance, I picked Stanford tonight because my system's final net team value between the 2 teams was +2 for Ok St., and since Stanford was a 5 point dog, 5-2 = +3, which gave Stanford my minimum +3 points of positive value.
I've spent the last 7 years trying lots of different  stats and filters. You don't have to use Sagarin, almost any RPI will give you a relative scale to work with. That's about all I want to share.
Find what works best for you. 
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#15
Posted: 1/3/2012 3:20:43 PM
do you like Michigan or VT?
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#16
Posted: 1/3/2012 6:09:10 PM
VT, by a small margin, hence, it's not listed in my plays above.
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#17
Posted: 1/4/2012 11:54:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

VT, by a small margin, hence, it's not listed in my plays above.

A 3 point push on VaTc.

The remaining plays:

WVa: +3.5***

KsSt: +7.5* 

Pitt: -3.5 small play 

ArkSt/NIl: undecided

LSU: pk***


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#18
Posted: 1/4/2012 11:57:46 AM
you changed to WVA? instead of Clem?
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#19
Posted: 1/4/2012 11:59:13 AM
WVA ATS and CLEM Straight to Win.
how about that?

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#20
Posted: 1/4/2012 4:27:08 PM
Yeah. How did it go from a 3 star fav to opposite team 3 star play... I am in either way... Great plays from you
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#21
Posted: 1/4/2012 8:26:38 PM
Read my posts...I made an error on that game, I placed the net value on the wrong team. Glad i checked it.
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#22
Posted: 1/4/2012 8:42:15 PM
Did you or have you tried applying this strategy to other sports?
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#23
Posted: 1/4/2012 9:55:34 PM
Hi there,

This is obviously a great system and I wish I had found it sooner but, glad I did tonight.

Just looking for a little clarification on your method if you are willing to provide it. What do you mean by filtering stats out through the last 5 games? How do you do that?

Thanks
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#24
Posted: 1/4/2012 10:57:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Hi there,

This is obviously a great system and I wish I had found it sooner but, glad I did tonight.

Just looking for a little clarification on your method if you are willing to provide it. What do you mean by filtering stats out through the last 5 games? How do you do that?

Thanks

I just run the same method on the last 5 games, H/A not withstanding, and then see if the the same side has a net positive
result...if so, then by how much? 3 points or more is a top play for me. Less than 3 points is still doing well.
WVa just scored...56-20...wow!
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#25
Posted: 1/4/2012 11:12:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Did you or have you tried applying this strategy to other sports?

Yes, NFL. Been doing ok with it, but last week, after applying the same adjustments that I made to the bowl games the prior week, I went 9-1-2...maybe just a coincidence, after all, it is a very small sample.
This week:
Cin +3*
NO -10***
Atl +3 
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