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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: BOWL SYSTEM RESULTS: 5-0, or 11-3, so far |
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gratefulbets |
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#1 Posted: 12/31/2011 2:44:00 PM 5-0*** 11-3* Here are my remaining plays:
TxAM * Utah *** Illinois* Van*** Hou*** SC*** Fl* Or* Clem* KsSt* LSU*** |
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skew8 |
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#2 Posted: 12/31/2011 3:17:32 PM  |
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gratefulbets |
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#3 Posted: 12/31/2011 3:18:00 PM |
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glefkb01 |
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#4 Posted: 12/31/2011 7:45:33 PM
Utah and Illinois winner winner too.... Thank Gawd you came along
The local is asking for a payout and I need to receive not give...
What is ur secret?
Vandy a 3 star loser. Rrrgh
Monday to tail u for sure |
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gratefulbets |
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#5 Posted: 12/31/2011 8:16:42 PM Without the 5-0 games, the 11-3 record is 6-3. |
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gratefulbets |
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#6 Posted: 12/31/2011 8:22:50 PM
6-1***
8-3* |
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gratefulbets |
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#7 Posted: 1/1/2012 11:48:24 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets: My system has 2 categories of net value; the higher the value, the less plays are available, but higher winning %. 5-0*** 11-3* Here are my remaining plays:
TxAM * Utah *** Illinois* Van*** Hou*** SC*** Fl* Or* Clem* KsSt* LSU***
I'm making some significant changes to my remaining picks, due to a combination of one error with W.Va/Clem, and the updated Sagarin ratings.
Hou*** Mi St.*** add SC*** change to one star Fl* Or* Clem* eliminate W.Va*** add KsSt* LSU***
PLAYS: Hou*** Mi St.*** SC* W.Va*** |
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glefkb01 |
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#8 Posted: 1/2/2012 8:58:15 AM So Today there are 5!!!
HOU ***
MSU***
SC*
FLA *
OREGON *
I HOPE WE COME THRU... I REALLY DONT WANNA MEET THE LOCAL THIS WEEK! |
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hawgpix |
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#9 Posted: 1/2/2012 9:20:39 PM |
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gratefulbets |
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#10 Posted: 1/2/2012 9:59:49 PM System working pretty well, so far.
Hou*** w
Mi St.*** w
SC* w
9-1 since posting...
23-4 total system sides |
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glefkb01 |
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#11 Posted: 1/2/2012 10:02:49 PM |
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gratefulbets |
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#12 Posted: 1/2/2012 10:25:50 PM |
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HECTAR |
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#13 Posted: 1/2/2012 10:46:08 PM |
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gratefulbets |
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#14 Posted: 1/3/2012 1:35:15 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by HECTAR:
Your supposed to explain your system and how you get your picks.
OK. I use Sagarin for their ratings, and I use Covers for the basic info, PF - PA. Home and Away values are important distinctions, and I filter those stats with each team's last 5 games stats. I compare the value from each team and apply that net difference to the higher rated team. I then compare that net value with the point spread. I take the side, if any, that has at least 3 points more value than team's net value. For instance, I picked Stanford tonight because my system's final net team value between the 2 teams was +2 for Ok St., and since Stanford was a 5 point dog, 5-2 = +3, which gave Stanford my minimum +3 points of positive value. I've spent the last 7 years trying lots of different stats and filters. You don't have to use Sagarin, almost any RPI will give you a relative scale to work with. That's about all I want to share. Find what works best for you. |
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tjsupersports |
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#15 Posted: 1/3/2012 3:20:43 PM |
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#16 Posted: 1/3/2012 6:09:10 PM |
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#17 Posted: 1/4/2012 11:54:06 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:
VT, by a small margin, hence, it's not listed in my plays above.
A 3 point push on VaTc.
The remaining plays:
WVa: +3.5***
KsSt: +7.5*
Pitt: -3.5 small play
ArkSt/NIl: undecided
LSU: pk***
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tjsupersports |
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#18 Posted: 1/4/2012 11:57:46 AM |
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tjsupersports |
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#19 Posted: 1/4/2012 11:59:13 AM how about that?
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glefkb01 |
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#20 Posted: 1/4/2012 4:27:08 PM |
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gratefulbets |
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#21 Posted: 1/4/2012 8:26:38 PM |
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#22 Posted: 1/4/2012 8:42:15 PM |
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BigTenWatto |
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#23 Posted: 1/4/2012 9:55:34 PM
This is obviously a great system and I wish I had found it sooner but, glad I did tonight.
Just looking for a little clarification on your method if you are willing to provide it. What do you mean by filtering stats out through the last 5 games? How do you do that?
Thanks
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gratefulbets |
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#24 Posted: 1/4/2012 10:57:41 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:
Hi there,
This is obviously a great system and I wish I had found it sooner but, glad I did tonight.
Just looking for a little clarification on your method if you are willing to provide it. What do you mean by filtering stats out through the last 5 games? How do you do that?
Thanks
I just run the same method on the last 5 games, H/A not withstanding, and then see if the the same side has a net positive result...if so, then by how much? 3 points or more is a top play for me. Less than 3 points is still doing well. WVa just scored...56-20...wow! |
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gratefulbets |
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#25 Posted: 1/4/2012 11:12:18 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:
Did you or have you tried applying this strategy to other sports?
Yes, NFL. Been doing ok with it, but last week, after applying the same adjustments that I made to the bowl games the prior week, I went 9-1-2...maybe just a coincidence, after all, it is a very small sample. This week: Cin +3* NO -10*** Atl +3 |
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