| Author: |
[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAAF Bowl Strategy |
|
auburntigers83 |
 View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#1 Posted: 12/5/2011 7:02:25 PM Going to be posting my strategy picks in here for the Bowls. Will be heavily favoring the dogs (non public) teams.
I will begin betting at 1 unit for first three games.
* If i win 2 or 3 i will keep the next set of bets (3 teams) to 1 unit / game.
* If i lose 2 of 3 i will increase the next set of bets (3 teams) to 3 units or triple the previous set of bets.
* If I lose 3 of 3 of the previous set then I will increase to 5 units or quintuple the previous set of bets.
Hoping to max my top unit wager out at no more than 25.... hopefully  But would be willing to go up to 125 if required.
Disclaimer ... not trying to win a ton of money just to be profitable and have fun. I have a lot of confidence that this strategy will be profitable. Stay tuned I will firm up my bets in the coming days.  |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#2 Posted: 12/7/2011 5:58:56 PM Gonna do a little pretesting but with NCAAB lets see how it goes
All 1 Unit Each
Butler +5.5 (-105)
Loyola Chicago +5.5 (-105)
Davidson +2 (-115)
Colorado State +22.5 (-110)
Dayton +5.5 (-115)
BOL  |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#3 Posted: 12/7/2011 10:20:43 PM Butler +5.5 (-105)  -1 Unit
Loyola Chicago +5.5 (-105) -1 Unit
Davidson +2 (-115) -1 Unit
Colorado State +22.5 (-110) -1 Unit
Dayton +5.5 (-115)  + 0.87 Unit
Not a good night at least it was small unit wagers ... Butler game still not over but not looking good . Assuming a loss on that one the night is (1-4) ATS for -3.13 Units... sucks. 
Going to keep betting 1 Unit for the next two days then bump it up if the record is still negative. Going to try to hit 5 games that I feel are the biggest underdog plays. Oh well lets see if this works. |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#4 Posted: 12/8/2011 5:37:08 PM Cant for the life of me find a good 5th bet... oh well just going to go with 4 bets
tonight I got
Harvard +6.5 (-110)
Boston College +14 (-110)
Western Michigan +5 (-110)
West Virginia +5 (-115)
All 1 Unit lets see what happens  |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#5 Posted: 12/8/2011 11:49:45 PM Well not the best not the worst (2-2) ATS looks like with WV pending looks like a win hopefully 
Harvard +6.5 (-110) -1 Unit
Boston College +14 (-110) + 0.91 Unit
Western Michigan +5 (-110) -1 Unit
West Virginia +5 (-115) + 0.87 Unit
So for the night we have a loss of juice of -0.22 Units for a cumulative total of - 3.35 Units still sucks huh.... still gonna keep it at 1 unit for tomorrow... not many games maybe pick 3 or 4 to play tops still betting small but so far  |
|
quote |
|
|
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#6 Posted: 12/9/2011 4:52:45 PM Got 3 bets for Friday
Siena +13 (-105)
Rider +27 (-110)
Idaho +13 (-105)
Parlay 1 Unit to win 6.278 Units!
Due to the bad record ATS, Im going to go with a parlay on these three for 1 unit... I figure the ATS in the end should approach around 50% . So I figure in this case REWARD > RISK . The only scenario where I would come out behind is a 2-1 ATS evening. Any other scenario I would be better off doing the parlay. Anyways as always lets hope for the best 
|
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#7 Posted: 12/9/2011 11:40:24 PM Siena +13 (-105)
Rider +27 (-110)
Idaho +13 (-105)
Parlay 1 Unit to win 6.278 Units!
Cha Ching!!!! The dogs were HOWLING tonight! Almost all across the board. A great night and a great haul. Updated ATS record *** Counting these games as INDIVIDUAL wins instead of one play *** ATS (6-6) and for Units finally into the positive with + 2.928 Units. Nothing to brag about but can't complain about winning.  |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#8 Posted: 12/9/2011 11:44:12 PM |
|
quote |
|
cartra |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 954
Location: California |
#9 Posted: 12/10/2011 12:41:14 AM |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#10 Posted: 12/10/2011 9:42:00 AM These are the plays ATS i cant fill out anymore right now because my POS book isnt even letting me login ..... what pieces of S**t . These will all be 1 unit bets and will fill in my exact spread and vig whenever these mf'rs let me log in.
Washington
Kansas
St. Joseph's
Boston University
Indiana
Austin Peay
USC
Charlotte
Green Bay
Oklahoma St.
|
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#11 Posted: 12/10/2011 11:40:21 AM Alright due to the weakness of the late night lineup I'm just going to post the top ten dog plays overall. These will all be 1 unit each. I think we should look at this basketball on a week to week basis being as how there are so many games to bet before we decide to bump up the units. Ok so here are the plays.
Washington +8 (-110)
Kansas +3 (-110)
St. Joseph's +3 (-110)
Boston University +7 (-115)
Indiana +5.5 (-110)
Austin Peay +13 (-115)
USC +3 (-110)
Charlotte +2.5 (-110)
Green Bay +21.5 (-110)
Oklahoma St. +7.5 (-110)
Whew finally my sportsbook came through... lets hope for the best |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#12 Posted: 12/10/2011 11:17:27 PM Wow wow wow.... the last couple of days have been amazing system wise. Just unbelievable the run the past two days. Here are the results!
Washington +8 (-110) + 0.91 Unit
Kansas +3 (-110) + 0.91 Unit
St. Joseph's +3 (-110) + 0.91 Unit
Boston University +7 (-115) - 1 Unit
Indiana +5.5 (-110) + 0.91 Unit
Austin Peay +13 (-115) + 0.87 Unit
USC +3 (-110) Push + 0.0 Unit
Charlotte +2.5 (-110) + 0.91 Unit
Green Bay +21.5 (-110) + 0.91 Unit
Oklahoma St. +7.5 (-110) + 0.91 Unit
ATS for the night is (8-1-1) and a result of + 6.24 Units!!
Updated ATS (14-7-1) and updated cumulative Unit count is +9.168!!! A great couple of days and tomorrow being a slower day will try to fit in about 5 games. I've been contemplating making this a separate thread if it has any chance of being succesful and so far so good. So maybe tomorrow we may break this off to an OFFICIAL College BBall thread. As always lets keep going and hope for the best |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#13 Posted: 12/11/2011 8:33:48 AM |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#14 Posted: 12/12/2011 6:23:21 PM |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#15 Posted: 12/16/2011 5:22:36 PM Alright Lets get down to Business!!! Why we're all here.. FIRST BOWL PICK, lets make it interesting
Louisiana Lafayette + 5 (-110) 4 Units
Lets hope for the best
|
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#16 Posted: 12/16/2011 5:42:21 PM Adding
Marshall + 4 (-110) 4 Units
Louisiana Tech +10.5 (-110) 4 Units
Lets hope for the best |
|
quote |
|
buntyketti |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 615
Location: |
#17 Posted: 12/18/2011 9:47:43 AM
|
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#18 Posted: 12/20/2011 8:00:04 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by buntyketti: nice start bro
Thanks Bro |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#19 Posted: 12/20/2011 11:41:54 PM Since we have a 2-0 start locked up (winning 3 pack) I'm going to drop the bets down to 1 Unit. I initially began with 4 Units due to how crazy the last week of the season was.
Adding
Arizona State +14.5 for 1 Unit
Lets hope for the best
|
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#20 Posted: 12/21/2011 11:48:23 PM Louisiana Lafayette + 5 (-110) 4 Units + 3.64 Units
Marshall + 4 (-110) 4 Units + 3.64 Units
Louisiana Tech +10.5 (-110) 4 Units + 3.64 Units
So far so good Bowl Season ATS (3-0) for + 10.92 Units
Lets keep this momentum going.  |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#21 Posted: 12/22/2011 12:13:51 AM Adding
Nevada +7 (-115) 1 Unit
Lets hope for the best |
|
quote |
|
buntyketti |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 615
Location: |
#22 Posted: 12/22/2011 9:24:03 AM |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#23 Posted: 12/22/2011 4:02:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by buntyketti:
nice going bro, any chance u will playing the ncaa B ?
Yeah I will try to start posting NCAAB plays again.. .I came down with food poisoning Sunday night and had to miss work Monday... so been catching up ever since and was trying to keep the capping to a minimum . Will probably post one continuous thread in systems instead of separate daily ones. Those are just too hard to keep up with. Hope you've been making some |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#24 Posted: 12/26/2011 9:42:49 AM Adding
University of North Carolina +6 (-110)
Lets hope for the best |
|
quote |
|
auburntigers83 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 548
Location: Alabama |
#25 Posted: 12/27/2011 8:34:41 AM Arizona State +14.5 1 Unit - 1 Unit
Nevada +7 (-115) 1 Unit PUSH
University of North Carolina +6 (-110) 1 Unit - 1 Unit
Oh well that three pack went down in flames mostly so we will Have to increase the next set of bets to 3 Units. Im looking to add CAL for Wednesday night but hoping to get +3.5.
ATS for previous 3-pack (0-2-1) for - 2 Units.
ATS Cumulative Updated (3-2-1) for + 8.92 Units. |
|
quote |